[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

jambalaya - Member
@igm by the way I am saving my senior's moment for another day

I was focusing on the word any ... I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus (sorry to be so repetitive) the eurozone debt crises which will shut up most of the Remainers. The real economic benefits will come later imho, long after I am retired

Ignoring the fact the Aaron Banks espoused soft Brexit then, given you're, what, 55 ish, long after you're retired is around 20 years plus? 😉

Given that European zone debt is almost exactly the same as UK debt why are you predicting problems in Europe but not the UK, Jamba?

[url= https://www.statista.com/statistics/269684/national-debt-in-eu-countries-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ ]Debt/gdp in European countries.[/url]

Since those 2015 figures many European countries have improved while the UK has got worse. Then ther's the level of personal debt which is much higher in the UK than many European countries. In France persoanl savings cover large part of public debt so it's not as bad as it looks, in Japan too.

Given that European zone debt is almost exactly the same as UK debt why are you predicting problems in Europe but not the UK, Jamba?

Edukator. It's not about averages, one eurozone country does not formally guaranty another. Greece is bust they cannot pay, ever. What happens when taxpayers of eurozone understand they won't be getting back 60% of what they have lent (gifted to) Greece, they won't be lining up to help the next basket case. France is owed €100bn. It's not even clear what happens to the euro if a country defaults. Italy can't pay either and they have a totally bust banking sector, they don't have the money to bail out pretty much every single major bank. Greece was only "bailed out" in 2010 as the eurozone was well aware the whole currency was likely to fail via a domino effect Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain ... for the longest time these where known as the PIIGS but that's not politically correct.

Italy is making noises about withdrawing from the euro, they can force (redominate) all that debt into new Lira and then devalue say 40% and bingo debt/gdp is 90% (numbers approx). This is a fundamental problem with the euro, countries have ignored the rules and now there is a price to be paid.

Look at the debt to gdp ratios and then reprice at say 2%, 3% or 5% and the numbers quickly run away - Greek debt pricing spiralled in 2009 leading to the requirement for a bailout (ie market would not lend so only lender was eurozone to avoid a currency blow up). The other countries like Italy are too big to bail out. Once they start toppling they will fall like dominos, question is where does it stop ?

Germany and France have kicked this can down the road past their 2017 elections but far from going away the problem is only growing. Obama and the IMF are wise, why would Obama make a special trip to Greece on his final roadtrip, he didn't do it for the feta cheese and olives. IMO Trump won't allow the IMF into a bailout unless the terms are very favourable, ie disastrous for eurozone. He is a dealmaker and he like most Americans are not interested in bailing out overspending European governments.

I am very bearish. I am not alone. Once very badly bitten seriously underestimating impact of US subprime won't be making the same mistake again.

And how does this affect us and what is the effect of Brexshit?

You more than anyone has given this a lot of thought - so what is the answer?

[Greece can only recover of creditors take a hit. Every debt crisis ultimately comes to this realisation. But the Germans remain in denial of the obvious]

Spain's national debt has reached an plateau whilst private debt is falling. Since the Brexit announcement the UK has got a lot worse as Britain prints money while Spain gets better. [url= http://bruegel.org/2014/12/what-is-behind-the-reduction-of-private-sector-debt-comparing-spain-and-the-uk/ ]Spain and UK[/url].

Objectively the PIGS are now pIG. And the way Britain is increasing its debt post Brexit vote we'll soon be adding a B. In a couple of years I predict BIG. There's still time to abandon Brexit though so I hope I'm wrong..

Thanks for the link Edukator - I was writing something on this topic today, so that was very interesting.

I found it interesting too, THM, particularly the way Spain has managed to recover despite the inability to devalue which is one of the major arguments to Britain remaining outside the Euro. The adjustment was made by internal deflation which although painful did not prevent an on-going economic recovery. That's what I got out of it anyhow.

Spain's national debt has reached an plateau whilst private debt is falling. Since the Brexit announcement the UK has got a lot worse as Britain prints money while Spain gets better. Spain and UK.

But I thought we were going to see the Euro implode horribly? It's been predicted for the last decade by the Europhobes, so it's about time it happened.

Edukator - I have been having a debate with some investors recently about Spanish banks. They were not happy with me pointing out how this deleveraging process was playing out and why they had lost >20% on their investments. There is a strong transfer from banks to households and corporates going on at the moment. For a macro geek like me its fascinating!

Thanks again. I will nick a couple of lines from that article!!

which although painful

very painful 😯

interestingly a lot of the liquidity pumped into the system by the Bank of Spain has leaked out (gushed out) of Spain rendering monetary policy largely ineffective. Its not just us that suffer from the wrong policy mix!!

One of the problems Greece is having is with capital flight with Swiss banks doing the laundering as usual. A documentary I watched on German TV followed the paper trail of Greek capital and money thrown at the country in bailouts, and much of it led to Swiss bank accounts held by Greeks and businesses operating in Greece. Putting conditions on the government was useless when the private sector was squirreling the money away - and as you say the money was gushing out of Greece. The government was powerless to stop banks (including Greek ones), Greek companies and Greek individuals bleeding the country dry. The ability to hide money in Switzerland (and elsewhere but mainly Switzerland) was perhaps the biggest single exacerbating factor in the crisis.

I am very bearish. I am not alone. Once very badly bitten seriously underestimating impact of US subprime won't be making the same mistake again.

I remember discussing that debacle with one of Warren Buffet's lieutenants over dinner- a year or so before it happened.

[img] [/img]

Bwaaaaaaahahahahahaha! Actually a thing.

Of course capital flight is a problem only an idiot thinks the country is not bust. Blame the Swiss, blame the banks. Edukator there is full name giveup now in Switzerland so the "authorities" in Europe can get any info they want. There is absolutely nothing illegal about taking your money out of Greece and putting it in a foreign bank. There is no "laundering". If Greece and Greek banks blow up your euro deposit gets converted into Drachma (worth 50%) overnight or maybe you just loose 80% of it as happened in Cyprus to large deposits (admittedly mostly Russian) ? As I posted in the Greek thread a while ago you would be totally daft to have any money in a Greek bank (or anything significant in an Italian one imho). When the crises hit sales of new cars in Greece shot up, buy car (inc with borrowed money) drive car to non bankrupt country in the event of Greece leaving the euro, sell car for euros (default on loan ?). Is that money laundering ?

@igm very very few people anticipated the scale of the impact. I for one saw the sector as a major problem and avoided it and the US banks but that wasn't nearly bearish enough.

@TMH a world of pain as Obama rightly knows hence his visit (plus some reassurances re: Turkey I imagine). All speculation really. Significant deep and prolonged eurozone recession. Definite UK recession, hopefully short as we focus elsewhere, more bank failures. Division of eurozone into core & non-core or complete breakup. Massive changes to EU project inc possible collapse of what we see today. Trump is an isolationist, dealing with this and spending US taxpayers money on Europe's problems will not make the first page of his to-do list. His only involvement will be to facilitate US purchases of European assets at absolute rock bottom prices. China will be sniffing too of course.

@igm very very few people anticipated the scale of the impact. I for one saw the sector as a major problem and avoided it and the US banks but that wasn't nearly bearish enough.

I didn't really understand it at the time - certainly not the scale. But the story is true and I don't think Berkshire took much of a hit in that.

Time for celebrations right...

what the giggty ****? there are some absolutely bonkers brexiters in the QT audience tonight!

Go Tim Farron

I said "laundering" because what they were doing broke Greek law and the opacity of Swiss banks (at the time) made it possible.

The QT audience appears to consist of sketch show characters penned by Harry Enfield

I agree with Tim 🙂

I'm not convinced the one at the back wasn't Harry Enfield!

@TMH a world of pain as Obama rightly knows hence his visit (plus some reassurances re: Turkey I imagine). All speculation really. Significant deep and prolonged eurozone recession. Definite UK recession, hopefully short as we focus elsewhere, more bank failures. Division of eurozone into core & non-core or complete breakup. Massive changes to EU project inc possible collapse of what we see today. Trump is an isolationist, dealing with this and spending US taxpayers money on Europe's problems will not make the first page of his to-do list. His only involvement will be to facilitate US purchases of European assets at absolute rock bottom prices. China will be sniffing too of course.

Ok so how does Brexshit affect any of this? You use this as an argument for Brexshit without explaining how our decision affect any of this or why the UK is less exposed as a result.

I don't know about other French and German people but I have never sat down at the dinner table and wondering when the Greeks will pay back their debts. If anything I would imagine that most people understand that money is gone.

+1 THM

I cannot see a single reason why it affects us differently whether we are in or out of the EU

Any actual reasons or examples

All I can think is that we will have less input into what happens after as we have no voice at the table

Or is it jambafct #1006 ?

TBH when did he last post something that was not total bollocks /so one sided as to be a complete distortion of reality?

you could have a more balanced debate on Europe with Nigel after a lock in
He is literally incapable of being factual/sensible or he is the perfect troll as you all keep biting.....you decide....either way why do you want to engage with him?

Stupid is as stupid does.

EU leaders are not "bluffing" when they say the UK will be left without access to the single market when it leaves the bloc if there is no free movement of people, Malta's prime minister says.

Joseph Muscat, whose country assumes the EU's presidency in January, told the BBC "this is really and truly our position and I don't see it changing".

You really should be getting off the internet and doing more work, for less.

Log out, now.

EU leaders are not "bluffing" when they say the UK will be left without access to the single market when it leaves the bloc if there is no free movement of people, Malta's prime minister says.

Joseph Muscat, whose country assumes the EU's presidency in January, told the BBC "this is really and truly our position and I don't see it changing".

cue the "don't they know who we are comments" from the three Stooges.

nah they will moan about threats instead and blame the EU for simply applying its rules as we all knew they would

It will be proof of how we are better off without them because they are bullies and they dont listen to us

ITs madness its like refusing to pay the gym membership the insisting you can still use the equipment even though you wont actually follow their rules about how to use it and then blaming them
Morons will swallow it

cue the "don't they know who we are comments" from the three Stooges.

That would be "don't they know who we were".

Is it just me? Or does every day that goes by of this ludicrous, farcical limbo, with the government (such as it is) adopting this increasingly inexplicable denial-of-reality position, become increasingly surreal?

We're drifting towards potential economic calamity, and nobody who's meant to be in charge seems particularly bothered, or even seems to be fully engaged with the situation. And the more unhinged elements of the Tory party, and an increasingly rabid press have crossed a line into hysterical madness, and are actively revelling in this exercise in monumentally stupid national self-harm/economic suicide.

All while Her Majesties Official Opposition sits there, impotently looking on, disinterestedly, with its collective thumb up its arse.

How the **** did we get here?!!! 😯

Get with program binners! Stupid means Stupid.

How the **** did we get here?!!!

You'd have to see who came up with Article 50. I bet it was a Brit.

Binners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.

Binners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.

Indeed. Which is why I fear the worst. That this mob are going to use this as an ideal opportunity to tear up EU red tape (read: workers rights) and establish a neoliberal fantasy island of turbo-charged capitalism. A Year Zero race to the bottom on wages and rights (and benefits of course)

in short, the complete opposite of what they promised to the disaffected working classes who turned out to vote for this pack of lies.

I think this is the reason for the silence from the Brexiteers. They don't want any of us to know what they're cooking up until its all in motion. Because When it becomes clear just how utterly cynically the working class have been manipulated and just outright lied too, conned into allowing them to establish a system that is going to serve 'the Elite' even more so than before, at the expense of everyone else, and massively widen inequality, then I think we're going to see civil unrest on a scale this country hasn't seen for a very long time. If ever.

Vive la révolution, Rudi !

he is the perfect troll as you all keep biting..

Agree. It is an expert level of trolling on this and the Trump thread.
Without that level of trolling I would imagine the threads would have about 25% of the posts they do and maybe get somewhere instead of going round in circles.

its important to hear jambas posts

its why i dont use the blocker, theres lots of people that believe the same stuff as jamba- look at the mail, express, telegraph, sun etc its full of brexit fantasies, no matter how horrible the opinions there are you cant counter them if you dont know what they are.

5th I assume you know it was a Brit who drafted A50, prior to Lisbon there wasn't even a process. Wouod have been better for us as we couod have jist pulled the plug anytime.

Erdogan/Turkey are facing up to the EU again, any more nonsense (ie voting to suspend membership negotiations) and we'll just reopen the borders again and you'll have millions more refugees.

TMH it affects us much more directly if we are still a member, we will be dragged into reacues and recovery budgets and our budget contribution is calculated in part by a relative ecomomic strength so that wouod jump up again too. We need to take the bumps in the road and refocus away from the EU. Exports have been falling steadily and significantly since 2000 (I recall Kimbers posted a graph)

Binners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.

SO we all get monitored and greater intrusion and big business gets less regulation and more freedom
why would they trust business and not people?

Erdogan/Turkey are facing up to the EU again, any more nonsense (ie voting to suspend membership negotiations) and we'll just reopen the borders again and you'll have millions more refugees.

A quote on this story caught my eye.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38096710

"For example, if Scotland had separate market access arrangements, that would mean possibly different customs arrangements, that would mean there would be customs posts on the border. There's no other way to deal with that.
"If you're Greenland and you're a long way away from the European land mass, it's easier. But otherwise, how do you control the flow of goods that are traded at different terms on the same island?"

What, like we'll have between the Republic and Northern Ireland?

Or in fact where you have ANY land border with a country outside of your trading bloc...

@kimbers thanks and indeed, main reason for participating in such threads is to hear those who disagree with you. Otherwise it just becomes a Momentum meeting where only one viewpoint is acceptable followed eventually by a dreadfully nasty shock at the ballot box.

@Del I think Erdogan is an appalling dictator, he has campaigned for re-election under a hardline and regressive Islamist manifesto and he's sent Turkish aircraft and troops into Syria primarily to fight the Kurds who have been the ones actually making provress againat IS. Turkey has also turned a blind eye to 30-50,000 IS recruits passing through it's country, been buying oil from IS and facilitating people smuggling. I am no fan, however he is easily able to push the EU around which was my point about hiw weak and incompetant the EU is.

@cchris do you really think the French understand it's been a €75bn gift to Greece (I put 100 before but that's Germany) ? Speaking to relatives (some of which are officials) and it's not generally understood that a hard Brexit means either big EU budget cuts or France paying an extra €3bn (?) pa.

@igm I don't deny it, I bought a business in 2005 and in 2006 sold all the sub-prime holdings. What I failed to do is see to cross over European banking in 2008.

@binners May already said no workers rights legislation will be eroded under her Premiership. That takes us to 2020 where we will either have another May Government or something under JC ? Even under Brexif stress the Tories just increased living wage and raised the personal allowance. Whatever the STWers think the Tories are capturing the middle ground.

Did anyone see the comment in the subscription thread, "why wouod I subscribe the magazine when the forums are full of left wing politics and road bikes? I think the magazine would be the same." 😉

I am sure they do understand. That is why they have chosen Fillon who is pro eu but not as much as other candidates.

I agree with you that after the election in France and Germany, there will be reforms in the way the EU works.
Sadly if Brexit happens, the UK will be left out.

On workers rights, the government don't need to change anything, the businesses who don't respect the currents laws are not challenged as government don't care. More companies will abuse the system knowing that they have government on their side.
So officially we have ministers putting themselves in the middle ground, but turning a blind eye to outlaw practices.

Not just workers rights threatened either, the raft of Environmental Legislation prompted by EU Directives is also under threat under the cover of "protecting the economy".

But then these are laws that are broken routinely and have a blind eye turned to them too. Unsurprisingly given the kneecapping the Regulators have experienced.

why would they trust business and not people?

Because they own business, not people. Not yet, anyway.

TMH it affects us much more directly if we are still a member, we will be dragged into reacues and recovery budgets and our budget contribution is calculated in part by a relative ecomomic strength so that wouod jump up again

We won't have any say on anything that affects the EU. Any strategic decisions taken will either ignore or negatively impact the UK.

Yep just read that the environmental studies used by the government for Heathrow decision were old and out of date, and they knew it but carried on regardless.

They really are shxt.

@binners May already said no workers rights legislation will be eroded under her Premiership.

Notre Dame des Landes was originally conceived for Concorde yet that's still going ahead. The really are shix.

Fillon hasn't won yet and this week he's put himself firmly in the Catho' Manif pour Tous camp so we'll have to wait until Sunday and see if La France humaniste can be bothered to try and stop him. On EU policy Fillon and Juppé are bonnet blanc, blanc bonnet. Bleu Marine on the other hand... .

in short, the complete opposite of what they promised to the disaffected working classes who turned out to vote for this pack of lies.

Statment of the bleedin' obvious 🙁

in short, the complete opposite of what they promised to the disaffected working classes who turned out to vote for this pack of lies.

They;

1) didn't give a tOss whther it was 350, 200 or any other number per week - anything above zero they thought a waste of money
2) had already made their mind up about immigration and control issues (see Tory manifesto pledges and Labour "Immigration" mug)

The Leave campaign tapped into what was already there, we just pursueded some people Brexit would not be the Armageddon IMF/Cameron/Osbourne said it would be.

1) didn't give a tOss whther it was 350, 200 or any other number per week - anything above zero they thought a waste of money
2) had already made their mind up about immigration and control issues (see Tory manifesto pledges and Labour "Immigration" mug)

1) but the leave campaign led people to believe that we would pay nothing rather than paying in other ways (and the projected 5 years has us paying more overall) They were quite happy not to mention that.
2) Difficult to get a message across to racists (they don't want facts and don't care as long as there are less foreigners here), but the leave campaign just played to them and lied about the impact of immigration without mentioning that without millions of immigrants the country would clearly suffer.

Exactly why there should have been no leave/remain campaigns and only objective fact based information should have been issued. Won't stop the racists but may make the less enthusiastic mild racist think a bit.

Sadly if Brexit happens, the UK will be left out.

EU had a very good chance to offer the UK something meaningful but they pushed back heavily on Cameron, he came back with absolutely nothing, the EU took a punt on Remain and they lost. It wasn't surprising as they have eyes only for fhe Superstate.

Kerley 52% voted Leave they where not all racists, the marginal voter certainky wasn't racist. Being concerned about a system of immigration which does not exist anywhere else in the world is not racist.

. Being concerned about a system of immigration which does not exist anywhere else in the world is not racist

Indeed but blaming and demonising immigratnts for the failings of our own government is.

Kerley 52% voted Leave they where not all racists, the marginal voter certainky wasn't racist. Being concerned about a system of immigration which does not exist anywhere else in the world is not racist.

Do you not think that 40 years of lies in certain sections of the media might have coloured the opinions of many voters. Particularly as is clear Westminster politicians are incompetent. Where are the politicians arguing against NHS changes, against the collapse in local social care, against the communications data bill etc etc. Why is it that trains are more expensive and less efficient than most of europe, where are the plans to deal with air pollution, to deal with the poor educational attainment of many. etc etc. And the last thing that westminster politicians were ever going to say is we're crap, all those things we blamed on Brussels well they were our fault.

and the 52%, 26% of the population is not a mandate to screw the lives of everyone.

No,the UK took a punt on Leave and everybody will loose.

[url= http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/business-investment-boosts-gdp-growth-after-brexit-vote-w5tvxl3z9 ]http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/business-investment-boosts-gdp-growth-after-brexit-vote-w5tvxl3z9[/url]

A surprise rise in business investment since the vote to leave the EU combined with robust consumer spending and exports drove economic growth in the third quarter, official figures have shown.

The Office for National Statistics confirmed that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months to September compared with the previous quarter, with the largest contribution coming from net trade.

Business investment grew by 0.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter, defying expectations from economists that it would fall by 1 per cent in the three months after the Brexit vote over fears that companies would defer or cancel investment plans due to economic uncertainty

[url= http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/articles/the_reply_a_c_grayling_got_when_he_wrote_to_parliament_and_how_he_reacted_1_4789695?=kok ]http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/articles/the_reply_a_c_grayling_got_when_he_wrote_to_parliament_and_how_he_reacted_1_4789695?=kok[/url]

jambalaya - Member

Kerley 52% voted Leave they where not all racists, the marginal voter certainky wasn't racist.

You are correct, but I would be surprised if > 1% of the voters were racist. A 1% swing from would have resulted in a different result. So it is quite possible that racists swung the vote.

Interesting cranberry so what you are saying is that whilst in the EU our economy is doing well, not growing as fast as before the vote, but still well.
Why are we leaving then ?

and just to incite Godwin, most Germans didn't vote for the extermination of the Jews, but it still happened. If you're going to vote with right wing nut jobs you better be f***ing clear on how you are going to keep them under control.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/business-investment-boosts-gdp-growth-after-brexit-vote-w5tvxl3z9

A surprise rise in business investment since the vote to leave the EU combined with robust consumer spending and exports drove economic growth in the third quarter, official figures have shown.
The Office for National Statistics confirmed that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months to September compared with the previous quarter, with the largest contribution coming from net trade.

Business investment grew by 0.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter, defying expectations from economists that it would fall by 1 per cent in the three months after the Brexit vote over fears that companies would defer or cancel investment plans due to economic uncertainty

Well, sort of. You missed this bit:

It is the huge services sector that kept the economy growing. Services increased by 0.8%, driven by a continued strong performance on the British High Street as sales continue to boom. [b]But all the others sectors of the economy, manufacturing, agriculture and construction, are contracting.[/b]

Not great news for the manual/unskilled labour sector of our economy and those involved. Many of whom, from what I remember, voted leave. Quotes on the radio from business owners/leaders indicates that many of those investments were likely already committed to. We are not yet in the realms of finding out what the brexit vote means economically but Nissan, and Jaguar LandRover today, may be an indication of things to come in terms of shakedowns of the government by industry.

Surveys of shoppers indicate that they are buying now ahead of price rises next year............

So it is quite possible that racists swung the vote.

the racists were certainly enthusiastic about Brexit

Thomas Mair took all the hate and fear peddeled by Vote Leave and the right wing press to heart (the daily mail still burried the story of his conviction yesterday when they got to it on page 30 they claimed he was afraid of loosing his home to immigrants !)
[img] [/img]

Nigel is so concerned that hes cancelled the march on the high court because the EDL, Britain 1st, BNP etc are planning to turn out in force

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-brexit-march-supreme-court-led-by-nigel-farage-postponed-1593471

As much as his ego would adore his fans lauding him with a rousing [b]Heil Farage[/b] chant, even he knows itd be bad for PR
https://www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farage-ukip-letter-school-concerns-racism-fascism

he daily mail still burried the story of his conviction yesterday when they got to it on page 30 they claimed he was afraid of loosing his home to immigrants !)

Then again they did support the brownshirts and I guess such hatred lies deep

Could it be that he cancelled the March because only 100 people turned up in the week?
Bit worried to be embarrassed.

The likeness is staggering..

[img] [/img]

http://euromove.org.uk/we-need-your-support/join-the-european-movement/

Zippy fans ofvthe EU have had years to make their case and most importantly from May 2015 till June 2016 when it was clear there would be a Referendum. That's all too little too late.

Now we are going in a new and much brighter direction

https://www.changebritain.org

http://brexitcentral.com

Worried?

TMH it affects us much more directly if we are still a member,

Except that you and I know that this is UNTRUE. Non-EZ members have NO liability to the EZ, this is legislates against and confirmed in CMD negotiations. It is simple scaremongering. As in the past, if we CHOSE to fund any EZ member this would be on a fully collateralised basis.

we will be dragged into reacues and recovery budgets and our budget contribution is calculated in part by a relative ecomomic strength so that wouod jump up again too.

As above, plus we are likely to be dragged in via IMF anyway. So to repeat, what does this have to do Brexshit. NOTHING.

We need to take the bumps in the road and refocus away from the EU.

we were doing that already, its now harder 😯

Worried?

About the future of Europe, yes very much so. Greece is the tip of a very large financial iceberg and it's going to get far worse for them and many others.

It is ok THM, following the ruling on British ski instructors, Jambalaya is now a pro freedom of movement for work.

Non-EZ members have NO liability to the EZ,

However, as you well know, the EU broke their own rules to allow the EFSM to aid Greece last year, so can you give me a guarantee that the EU won't somehow break or rewrite the rules again to drag us in to their mess? No, of course you can't - the only way to guarantee that is to leave.

Non-EZ members have NO liability to the EZ,
However, as you well know, the EU broke their own rules to allow the EFSM to aid Greece last year, so can you give me a guarantee that the EU won't somehow break or rewrite the rules again to drag us in to their mess? No, of course you can't - the only way to guarantee that is to leave.

Yes, we can guarantee that because we currently a) have a veto, b) could just leave then if they did.

Yes, we can guarantee that because we currently a) have a veto,

b) could just leave then if they did.

sorry, the fact that you used the word 'currently' shows the fallacy of your point, the EFSM was created by QM vote (well, technically using article 122) so we did not have a veto on its creation or use, only after we kicked up a fuss last year were the rules changed to ensure we would be excluded in the future - but as we have seen, rules change all the time, and there is nothing stopping the creation of a new scheme by QM that dragged us into the mess again

The limits on the budget of the EU, aka the multiannual financial framework (MFF), is one of the items which still requires unanimity rather than QM vote.

So while they could juggle around the existing budget to 'create some new scheme', it couldn't expose us to any more financial risk or increased contribution without us agreeing to it.