[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/paul-ryan-brexit-trade-224878

Sorry, not sure why it didn't work - posting from mobile though.

In full:
http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

Basically, there's a lot of untangling from the EU to be done as it has a separate entity status within the WTO so the EU and the UK have to agree on percentage splits / tariffs and then the rest of the WTO has to agree by consensus. This cannot be a fast process.

I new that trade deal with Oz would save us...

Major Australian exports, 2014-15 (A$m)
Gold 583
Alcoholic beverages 376
Lead 311
Pearls & gems 294
Major Australian imports, 2014-15 (A$m)
Passenger motor vehicles 1,007
Medicaments (incl veterinary) 552
Pharm products (excl medicaments) 332
Printed matter 275

So if the UK can't retain some of it's car building (guessing by the cars seen here it's not many low end ones) and pharma jumps ship that could be crap for exports.

Spot on Thank you Klunk

@cody just seen that. There was a massive long thread about Greece where I posted a lot and got into some heated disagreements with some on here. Anyway;

Greece has not been "fixed" eurozone/EU have just delayed the envitable, they cannot pay back ever the €350bn of taxpayers money they have been given, they can't even pay the interest

Greece has technically been bust since 2010 when it admitted it had been hiding billions and billions of government debt and oublishing false figures. Basically the markets figured this out in advance and stopped lending. So the eurozone had a choice let it fail or rescue it. What they did was neither really, they (the eurozone governments) took over all the loans (handing banks etc a material loss) and agreeing a series of deals since then. But the truth is Greece cannot pay ever. So sooner or later the eurozone are going to have to offer Greece a deal (eg write off €200bn of debt - ie admit to their tax payers the money is lost) and/or Greece exits the eurozone. My point is at this time the rest of the overstretched eurozone, particularly Italy and Spain will need help and lots of it.

As for the EU's treatment of Greece they have forced "austerity max" on them when they really should have just confronted the issue they cannot pay and agreed a deal back in 2010 or sometime since, that deal may have been Greece exits the euro (possibly the EU) and then they can move on. All the eurozone is doimg is trying to buy time for themselves and at Greece's expense, as Greece wants to stay in the euro/EU they are stuffed.

As/when all of this blows up its going to be a huge mess.

Some interesting weekend press

Telegrapgh speculating Merkel may try and "retire" Junker, this would be constructive (terrible choice in the first place but that was her/Hollande's doing). He's certainly not the man to be around for Brexit, eurosceptic Austria and the longer he's there with his attitude the more likely is a win for Front Nationale or a defeat for Merkel at home.

Interesting discussion around Switzerland who in 2014 (?) passed a Referendum legally requiring the Government to end free movement. The EU has refused but come 2017 the government will be legally in breach of its obligation, so big mess. Some thing Brexit will make it more difficult for Switzerland to get what it wants but we soon could have a situation when UK, Switzerland and Austria (assuming Hofer wins and forces a new election) are asking for the same thing with elections in France likely to make it a major point too. AfD seem too far behind in Germany to be a threat but momentum builds quickly and they have a system of PR

@Clover (Loverpool EU Law Prof said much the same thing) another example of how we should never have gotten ourselves into this mess. The EU has relied on this strangulation to force it's agenda, they gamble that no-one would ever walk away. Like a boa-constrictor I said.

I think theres little doubt that this is still early days, and far too early to predict what is going to happen.

with Austria's election rerun coming up, and pressure for a referendum in other countries like Netherlands and Sweden mounting, both heading into the build up to an election cycle soon (as in Germany) I think that the Realpolitik could suggest holding back on article 50 and inviting them to the negotiation table with us as a block exit.

Quite right - who on earth called a referendum with absolutely no plan and noone to implement it? With 20 trade negotiators? That's just woeful. There was a lot of 'there's not enough thought through planning' in the Scottish referendum debate but it was ludicrously absent in our referendum. Forty years of legislation plus all the trade treaties is not trivial, you can't just click your heels together three times and magic a new set.

And another thing. I really don't think losing our right to freedom of movement is all that great either. I'm just about the only person in my family that hasn't worked in Europe at some point (both my parents and my brother now do, whilst my sister has but has returned).

The whole debacle is a step into a none too pleasant past, which is more than reminiscent of my childhood. Recession, fewer opportunities and racism. Can't say I'm keen.

I've been pretty dismayed by the attitude of some of the people I've spoken to

One guy I know voted to leave because "he didn't like the government spending money on a leaflet telling us to remain"

Quite a few people seem to think negotiating trade deals will be easy now 😯

How do you personally measure up on this wonderful Australian based points system if you want to work in Europe?
I'm qualified to do **** all and I'm too old to do even that.

around here a lot of farm land suddenly up for sale (large farms too) ? coincidence or a brexit related ?

One guy I know voted to leave because "he didn't like the government spending money on a leaflet telling us to remain"

😆

Brilliant !

I think I might use that one.

@Klunk farmers where generally pro-Leave so I doubt its related

[b]Thank You[/b] 😀

Vote Leave
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In just ten months we built from scratch an unprecedented national movement that took our campaign to every corner of the country. We got to places that ‘politics as usual’ ignored. People who have been ignored, and have never been involved in politics before, suddenly spoke out and took action.

In 2008, the worst financial crisis since 1929 hit the world. The people who paid the bills were mainly those on P.A.Y.E. They are still paying. They are also paying the bills for the EU’s and the euro’s dysfunction. Meanwhile many with power and money who were responsible for the mistakes and were completely wrong in their predictions dodged their fair share of the bills and got rich out of the EU system. We spoke for those on P.A.Y.E.

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It is important that the Conservative leadership candidates accept that the vote must be respected. Both the leading IN candidate (Theresa May) and the leading OUT candidate (Michael Gove) have made clear that if they win they will respect the vote and deliver a new UK-EU deal. This could mean, among other things, democratic control of immigration policy. This could marginalise extremists and allow a fair, sensible, and humane new policy. It could mean new trade deals and new jobs. It could mean more money for health, education, and science.

But we cannot be sure it will happen. In particular, while there are many wonderful civil servants there are also many who regard our victory as a disaster. They will try to stop or minimise changes. Not all the candidates in the Conservative leadership campaign have shown an ability to deliver big changes in the face of civil service opposition. Many in Labour are in complete denial about the real state of opinion and the real problems of the EU. Few MPs have the skills needed to manage normal government departments - never mind the EU negotiation and complex problems that implementing the referendum result require. Many MPs are desperate to ignore any lessons from the referendum and go back to politics as usual. The situation is very worrying.

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TL:DR

Sounds like the leave propaganda machine is still in full swing. Nice to see that they have learned from their mistakes and make no mention of 350 million quid. Lots of conditional phrasing too. Just in case the experts were right after all and we've just performed one of the most spectacular acts of self-harm in history and they are worried someone could point the finger at their lies and dissembling.

Thanks Jamba, it made me laugh if nothing else.

@ Jamba: Let's start a movement to remove the corrupt, undemocratic and impotent powerbase that is Westminster. At its core must the interests of ordinary people; this can only work hand in hand with nationalism.
Let's call this visionary new movement National Socialism!

I could go back and dig up all the p.ss taking posts from when I revealed I was campaigning, but I won't.

Sadly the referendum was not legally binding as we would have liked it to be. As such we have to wait and see. Cameron said he'd execute Article 50 immediately but unfortunately I knew he wouldn't

As for the £350m p/week we'll have to wait till we are out before we are able to decide how we'll spend that. Most of that benefit will be decided by our government in 2020

Oi Jambalaya any chance you could respond to the comments on the New Social Class thread or is it too "complicated"

We want to thank all three of them too. They put their careers and reputations on the line.

They did that for sure and are now fully exposed for what and who they are.

Jambas, good luck finding the £350m. Odd to see that you are still using that lie when your leaders have already distanced themselves from it.

Its odd - the '£350m was a lie' is still getting thrown about by Remainers, but at the same time they are saying "what are the farmers going to do without their grants" and "what is going to happen to Cornwall and Wales without EU money" - when all of that money was, of course, paid for out of that £350m

So, it appears that Remainers want to pick and choose their Gross and Net figures when it suits them just as much as they whinge about the Leavers doing 😆

Poor attempt at a swerve there Ninfan. Its clear what Jambas said

As for the £350m p/week we'll have to wait till we are out before we are able to decide how we'll spend that.

And equally clear the it is complete BS. Not even the leaders try to pull that one off any more.

The thing about the £350m is that's before the rebate. To get the £350m back, you need the EU to keep paying us the rebate after we've left.

Good luck with that 😀

TMH by the time we leave the EU late 2019/2020 the budget contribution will be much more than £350m a week, mark my words.

Brexit plan: Answer me this, how where Leave suposed to come up with a plan when we where prevented from having any access to the civil service or other government machinery ? We know what plan Cameron made, I lose I quit.

And there you have the Brexit plan in a nutshell: always blame someone else.

And there you have the Brexit plan in a nutshell: always blame someone else.

And another thing. I really don't think losing our right to freedom of movement is all that great either. I'm just about the only person in my family that hasn't worked in Europe at some point

Tremendous logic fail makes drunken sbob happy. 😀

Then sad. 🙁

[quote=jambalaya ]Cameron said he'd execute Article 50 immediately but unfortunately I knew he wouldn't

Well it would be odd if only one side lied.

[quote=ninfan ]Its odd - the '£350m was a lie' is still getting thrown about by Remainers, but at the same time they are saying "what are the farmers going to do without their grants" and "what is going to happen to Cornwall and Wales without EU money" - when all of that money was, of course, paid for out of that £350m

Shall we try starting with £250m which I think is about the right gross post-rebate figure? Then I'm not sure how you think there is a contradiction - the point being made is that if you maintain the levels of grants you get far less back. I don't think we have any problem working out the difference between gross and net, and that if you want the gross back to spend on other things then you don't get to pay those grants.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36700468

Boris Johnson has accused the government of failing to explain how the vote to leave the EU can be made to work in the UK's interests.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, he said this could not wait until there was a new prime minister in September.
He also said the Leave vote had led to "a kind of hysteria, a contagious mourning" among part of the population.

And another thing. How can the vote have been democratic when people who would ordinarily have been allowed to vote in a General Election weren't allowed to vote?

My friend, married to a UK national for 5 years, works, owns a house here. German passport.

My friend's dad, has lived here and was widowed after 40+ years of marriage to a UK national. Owns a house, has two grown up daughters with UK nationality and grandchildren. Has been a local councillor. Disenfranchised.

I didn't realise this until after, why was that never challenged?

So this workers revolution, and it's march towards the sunny uplands of a fairer, more accountable, more representative democracy begins with.....

*drumroll please.....*

Reducing corporation tax to 15%

Well we sure 'took back control' there!

you mean cut red tape and vibrant and dynamic economy meant t tax cuts for the rich and reduced rights for the workers...i can hardly believe it

jamba quote

I could go back and dig up all the p.ss taking posts from when I revealed I was campaigning, but I won't.

You also said Boris would be leader of conservatives by September can we extract the urine about that blunder as well?

My friend, married to a UK national for 5 years, works, owns a house here. German passport.

My friend's dad, has lived here and was widowed after 40+ years of marriage to a UK national. Owns a house, has two grown up daughters with UK nationality and grandchildren. Has been a local councillor. Disenfranchised.

Owning property doesn't give you a vote anymore, not even in NI. You have to be a British national to vote in UK general elections.

and to lighten things up a bit
[img] [/img]

you mean cut red tape and vibrant and dynamic economy meant t tax cuts for the rich and reduced rights for the workers...i can hardly believe it

the tax cut is for corporations and is to try and offset the fact that they will probbly have increased operating costs under brexit, seems pretty sensible to me, and probably to any right minded individual considering the current situation.

You also said Boris would be leader of conservatives by September can we extract the urine about that blunder as well?

Feel free 🙂

@Clover as Ernie says they are not entitled to vote in a GE. You can vote in local elections and be a local councillor. Personally I would extend voting to UK passport holders living abroad as the French, Australians, US do.

the tax cut is for corporations and is to try and offset the fact that they will probbly have increased operating costs under brexit, seems pretty sensible to me,

Jamba - I'm still just getting my head around what I think is the case that you were part of the quit Europe campaign, and on here at least spoke out quite strongly against freedom of movement, all the time from a safe position inside the EU. A position where the frankly quite ugly reaction to "foreigners" that has been released won't affect your French wife? Unless of course as you predict the French vote to leave and release a similar reaction that comes looking for you - but I guess you take that chance.

Have I got that right?

If so, there's a word for that - and it's not a vey nice one.

Anyway that aside, I'm going to be alright whether we exit or not, so I've decided to laugh about it. Mainly I'm going to laugh at the quit monkey Brexiters.