[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

CMD has played a v bad hand reasonably well. Quite right to let the BSers take responsibility for invoking A50 and dealing with the aftermath

Not really, he has put himself and the internal tory power fight ahead of the needs of the country. He didn't need to he could have done what was right for everyone instead he acted selfishly.

@binners [s]no one will put a number on anything. During the Labour leadership not one of the candidates would say how many refugees they woukd take Corbyn included, Camerons target became an aspiration rendering him and Remain mortaly wounded on that issue. The next PM cannot say for certain what the immigration rules will look like so how can Boris or anyone answer such a question. The campaign wasn't about numbers itnwas about control, as I sais Australia has controlled points based immigration and took double the amount of immigrants last year into a country roughly one third of the size. They did so as they decided it was the right thing to do[/s] vote leave lied

[quote=jimdubleyou ]That's for the A50 trigger being anything after 2017 - that's a long time to wait for your money!

It's not a terribly long time at 8/1, and you're not going to get them to pay out on the trigger not being pulled based on any date sooner than that (the only other odds I found are on the same effective basis, but not as good value - I initially thought there might be an arb, but the bookie with the less generous odds just has a healthy margin).

I wouldn't look to Australia as an aspirational ideal. It's the most racist place I've ever been.

The campaign wasn't about numbers itnwas about control

Yes, bet fair is pretty much 2-1 on everything up to the middle of 2017.

There's some money to be made there somehow, but I'm never clever enough to work it out.

Apologies if this has been covered, if not, is anybody clever enough to work out whether the peeps that invested in UKIP managed to cover their investment while the market dipped?

At this rate by the end of the month they wont be willing to leave the EU

I am pretty sure they have back-pedalled on that.

They haven't commented on the dismantling of the good Friday peace agreement yet, so that is still a goer.

[quote=jimdubleyou ]Yes, bet fair is pretty much 2-1 on everything up to the middle of 2017.
There's some money to be made there somehow, but I'm never clever enough to work it out.

I've made money on arbs before, so I might be clever enough (I can do the maths anyway), but I can't find it. I'll keep having a look as it seems something will probably come up - just wish I'd been braver on Thursday night (when I was successfully predicting the odds moving). Politics is always likely to provide possibilities as it's not a normal market.

...and just to go wildly OT I found one on the year of the next general election, but I might have to wait 4 years for a 1.5% payout, so not really worth it!

I think I should stop reading comments on newspaper articles. The amount of hate-filled invective and wilful ignorance by Leavers is deeply saddening.

There's an anti-Brexit protest on Saturday in London. It will be the first demo I've been on since an Anti-Nazi League march in 1994. More than 20 years!

I think I should stop reading comments on newspaper articles. The amount of hate-filled invective and wilful ignorance by Leavers is deeply saddening.

People really aren't that nuts, or nasty. I know where you're coming from (read any comments on the referendum under stories in the Sunderland Echo, for example). But honestly the small percentage who do pass comment on newspaper articles are not representative of the general population as a whole.

John Key, New Zealand’s Prime Minister, has said that the country will work with Australia in arranging new ties with the UK as it withdraws from the EU. “Where it makes sense we [New Zealand and Australia] will co-operate together,” he said.

Mr Key's Australian counterpart, Malcolm Turnbull, said that "opportunities and challenges" arose from the UK's decision to split with the EU. He said: "There are some big issues in terms of the access of Australians and New Zealanders to Europe and indeed to the UK."

Mr Javid said this week that the UK was “open for business”, and had already received offers to begin negotiation immediately with Australia and South Korea. Canada, India and Mexico are also understood to have contacted the Government with a view to undertaking post-Brexit talks.

The Conservative minister also announced that he and Lord Price would be going on trade missions to China, Hong Kong and Brazil in order to strengthen Britain’s links with other economies.

I am a fan of us starting our informal discussions with a global specifiically non-EU audience. I'd add Japan to that llist too. We have been unable to speak with them before so now is the time, we know what we are going to hear from Brussels so that can wait.

Jamba - that was an article about Oz-NZ co-operation as I recall, not particularly pro- or anti- either UK or EU. Just the antipodeans will need some sort of deal. And they will.

Come on Jamba, I still think you're better than this. Although I am very close to starting to laugh at the Brexiteers in an I'm all right Jack sort of way.

Corroded - York on Saturday too. First time since the poll tax. Taking the boys as its a good introduction and Brexit limits their dreams far more than mine.

PS - Look Kelvin MacKenzie Of the Sun (the Sun) regrets voting leave and Carswell (UKIP man) says it was a "narrow mandate" - don't do anything stupid Britain.

jambalaya - Member
@binners no one will put a number on anything. During the Labour leadership not one of the candidates would say how many refugees they woukd take Corbyn included, Camerons target became an aspiration rendering him and Remain [b]mortaly[/b] wounded on that issue. The next PM cannot say for certain what the immigration rules will look like so how can Boris or anyone answer such a question. The campaign wasn't about numbers [b]itnwas [/b]about control, as I[b] sais [/b]Australia has controlled points based immigration and took double the amount of immigrants last year into a country roughly one third of the size. They did so as they decided it was the right thing to do.

I'm a bottle of wine down, but clearly someone hit the wine before me. Good thing it only affects spelling not thinking, eh?

You're better than that Jamba.

However assuming you're merry not pissed, you agree that it was about immigration and racism, not jobs, costs, taxation and economy?

a bit of a loaded question for a nuanced issue,

do you want immigration to go up with an additional 100k potwashers?

do you want immigration to go up with an additional 100k Dr's and nurses?

Australia - everyone loves us really...
How do we deal with immigration and low paid seasonal work?

Well in 14/15 we granted 175,000 Working Holiday Visa's to people aged 18-30 and a further 40,000 2nd year visa's so more than the EU migration to the UK I think. These people come along and do the veg/fruit picking and cafe/bar work etc.
It's done because there is a need for that work to be done and local populations can't flex to it etc. It's also a good scheme for people to gain experience and travel.

I'll acknowledge the main difference relates to long term staying and state support but it's another way the debate has misused facts. Which is why when I quote a number or statement there is something linked to prove that I didn't just make it up.

Australia has controlled points based immigration and took double the amount of immigrants last year into a country roughly one third of the size.

It's been a long night and I'm a bit slow, but could someone clarify the above, which country is Australia one third the size of?

Australian Population is 1/3 of the UK's population size wise it's massive but not all that habitable.

Just re read my post above on immigration to Oz too for short term young workers. Over 200,000 visa's issues with no points requirement at all.

I wouldn't look to Australia as an aspirational ideal. It's the most racist place I've ever been.

Funny cos its true!!

So why is the talk of intrest rate cuts? Surely a low pound will drive inflation so we should keep rates as is or even raise them? Whats the priority?

So why is the talk of intrest rate cuts?

On racism in Oz, it exists but it can also be a very tolerant place and incredibly diverse. I'd probably hold off all the sweeping generalisations.

So the aim is to keep house prices propped up? Or is it to try and prevent a return to recession?

aim?

Is there one, I thought it was mostly an attempt to bounce along hoping to avoid bad things and waiting for everything to be OK again...

Housing can't be fixed without pain, pain leads to less votes so it's not getting fixed until the young start voting more than the old.

Inflation will cause pain though too

only so many fingers AA and more holes in the bucket...

If you would stop all these awkward questions we could get on with some important stuff like ignoring the fact the EU hold all the cards....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36660186/new-zealand-town-with-too-many-jobs-and-houses-is-looking-for-new-residents

like ignoring the fact the EU hold all the cards

they don't, they hold some as we do

the biggest issue is that we are only seeing the negatives at the moment, assuming we leave the EU we can negotiate our own trade agreements with the rest of the world without having to protect the interests of 27 other countries

the upcoming Commonwealth meeting should be a massive opportunity to set up a free trade area that drops into place the day we leave the EU. Which in turn will do more to improve those countries than our development aid

assuming we leave the EU we can negotiate our own trade agreements with the rest of the world without having to protect the interests of 27 other countries

You read the stuff about how long that takes? The interests of the other 27 also provide benefits to the UK, or do you only see the negatives in the EU?

The EU is currently the biggest economy in the world, it will take something special to replace it and would be foolish to ignore it as a trading partner.

Are we able to negotiate free trade agreements before we leave? We certainly can't sign them (best guesses are near 10 years each)

It's been done a few times but we (a) don't have many negotiators for the deals (b)havn't done many for a while and (c)I think 10 years is meant to be considered good when your doing 1 at a time, we have 1 for the EU who are still and will still be a major trading partner (unless we pay to play) then pick your top 10 and in reality no matter how urgent it is for the UK it will be at whatever pace it will be at.

Post Brexit Britain wouldn't need any deals. Just pay and collect tarrifs. The average tarrif is 3pc IIRC and wed collect as much as we paid.

Both here, in the office and on the media the discussion flp flops all over the place. The leavers are disunited as to why they want to leave. There is no plan. Time and time again people say that xenophobia and racism is only expressed by a minority and then discussions on immigration creep in. And indeed a large number of people cited immigration as a reason to vote out. Does immigration have a material negative impact on the financial or physical wellbeing of most of people in the UK? It surely can't do in Wales where the number of people born outside of the UK is low at 2.6%. There is, therefore, no logical reason for most of the Wales to base their voting preference on the basis of migration. It follows that most of those who cited immigration as an issue are either misinformed (believing that migration does them harm) and by definition are ignorant of the facts on this issue and/or they are driven by xenophobia in that they just don't like immigrants.

Where people are impacted by EU immigration the pinch points that do occur in terms of struggling public services are the result of poor service provision due to bad planning or austerity. Improving provision would be solvable without the need for isolating ourselves from Europe.

I am not sure which is more distasteful - the VL lies during the campaign or the crass back peddling afterwards

jambalaya - Member The campaign wasn't about numbers itnwas about control

It was all about numbers

The numbers currently coming in
The governments failure to meet specific quantitatiatve targets
The fact that 70odd million Turks were on their way
(the Bllx about EU v non EU numbers and the failure of Aussie style controls to stop non EU etc)

as I sais Australia has controlled points based immigration and took double the amount of immigrants last year into a country roughly one third of the size. They did so as they decided it was the right thing to do.

So did we and for the same reason - hence the IoD concern for business that the xenophobic/racist VL claptrap might gain some traction

Since the result the backtracking is clear evidence that taking control of immigration iwas always a mirage. It was a pure stunt to tap into the undercurrent of xenophobia and racism that infects our society and it was a very successful if shameful one at that.

Embarrassing to be associated with such tactics - but that is the GB in which we live. Not a pretty sight.

outofbreath - Member
Post Brexit Britain wouldn't need any deals. Just pay and collect tarrifs. The average tarrif is 3pc IIRC and wed collect as much as we paid.

@THM see also the 200,000+ non points based visa's issued for working hol/low paid seasonal type work

@mikewsmith - I believe New Zealand has offered us some of their top trade negotiators. I think Murray Hewitt has also put his hand up.

"Deals are about more than Tariffs, they include things like quota's testing and acceptance"

You have to produce stuff that meets your customer's legislation. You don't have negotiate to get them to change their rules, just obey them.

Some quick excerpts from one that was handy - that food list seems a lot bigger than 3%
http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/chafta/fact-sheets/Pages/quick-guide-agriculture-and-processed-foods-outcomes.aspx
http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/chafta/fact-sheets/Pages/quick-guide-key-services-outcomes.aspx
http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/chafta/official-documents/Pages/official-documents.aspx

It is about a lot more than just counting the ins and out...

Who tests the standards, are our standards compatible, do you need to have stuff tested here there or both? These deals make trade easier, make working together easier, reduce cost and hassle etc. Makes the countries more competitive

I am a fan of us starting our informal discussions with a global specifiically non-EU audience

Have you changed your mind on that point as well as the immigration claim?

I am not sure which is more distasteful - the VL lies during the campaign or the crass back peddling afterwards

THe later

They campaigned on lies and now they have persuaded folk to vote for them they wont even honour the lies they used to get votes

Frankly jamby , who did the loudest of loud dog whistle race/immigration claims to now say its not about numbers is head shakimgly bad

Folk voted for snake oil and now they are going to pass them some crisps...they are not even goint to attempt to honour what thye got folk to vote on and then we are expected to respect the mandate....THE VERY SAME MANDATE THEY DONT RESPECT .
Post truth politics indeed. Its not even spin its outright deception.

And the Dailiy Mail has apologised for the Misinformation spouted about Immigrants pilling into the NHS... its a small apology tucked away in a far corner of the Toilet Roll.

And Boris has removed all the information and promises from the LEAVE website, just in case anyone pulls him up on it..

The markets have rallied since Thursdays disastrous vote, purely on the fact the Bankers made money on the Down and money on the Up.
More to come, so all those that despise Banks making money have played into their hands very nicely indeed.

"It is about a lot more than just counting the ins and out...
Who tests the standards, are our standards compatible, do you need to have stuff tested here there or both? These deals make trade easier, make working together easier, reduce cost and hassle etc. Makes the countries more competitive"

Again, so what? The point is they're not essential. And Britain will have identical standards to the EU because we're in the EU. Hard to imagine we'd want to change them.

But standards get updated and will diverge

Sobering image:

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- ([url=

Can't speak for the veracity of that one, but my wife has voiced very similar concerns about her medical and research colleagues.

Statement attributed to four of the professors in that photo:

Dear friends and colleagues,

The outcome of the British EU referendum makes this a sad day for the [url= http://newcastle-muscle.org/ ]John Walton Muscular Dystrophy Research Centre[/url], for research and education in the UK and for British patients with rare diseases.

A lot of our successes over the past 10 years were and are based on fruitful and enjoyable collaborations with colleagues from all the EU member states. Many of our translational research projects have either been directly funded by the European Union or by patient organisations from EU countries.

We highly value our collaborations with centres in the EU, which resulted in an improved understanding of neuromuscular diseases, more accurate diagnoses and better care for patients across the EU. Beside these achievements, other very important outcomes of our collaborative projects have been the establishment of trust, respect and friendships among people working together.

The outcome of the British EU referendum will not affect these accomplishments and it goes without saying that we will continue to work together across borders.

With very best wishes
Hanns, Katie, Rita and Volker

"But standards get updated and will diverge"

Only if we want them too. Otherwise ours can just track the EUs.

Solution to everything, you got me there no idea why anyone would bother with a trade deal at all these days.....

Not sure if this has been covered, but I am missing something here, so praps someone could explain.

Trade deals are all very well, and I agree that having these is a good thing. However are they not just a pre-cursor to actually doing business?

If you have a company who currently has customers in the EU who buy their widgets, they can't just immediately start making loads of cash selling widgets to the rest of the world without going out and winning loads of new business. That isn't as easy as it sounds. The rest of the world will have suppliers of widgets already and they may be quite happy with their current supplier of widgets... some serious selling and relationship building will need to be done before you can build a customer base outside the EU. At best this will take investment and time at worst it may not be possible. During this time the profit made from selling widgets to the EU will be slashed... So how many of these companies that do lots of exports to the EU are going to survive long enough to take advantage of these new market opportunities?

This is way more complicated than just setting up a trade deal... which is complicated already it seems?

As soon as you start looking at the details regarding this process, everything seems to fall apart.

Is it really as simple as folk seem to think?

"If you have a company who currently has customers in the EU who buy their widgets, they can't just immediately start making loads of cash selling widgets to the rest of the world"

They can just keep selling to their existing customers. There would be a small tarrif, on average 3pc.