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This is a very good thing, the Army are on standby to help with the winter floods..
One thing the UK Nasty Party have got right..
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37922757 ]Army to help with winter floods.[/url]
Wrong time of year for Jam and Scone exports isn't it?
Never mind, the Christmas pudding market will sort things out.
Never mind, the Christmas pudding market will sort things out.
You mean the empire pudding, devised to highlight the products produced from across the globe?
Weren't exports supposed to go up when the £ fell?
Trade figures notoriously volatile month to month, changes in behaviour can take a while to filter through. Read that commentary on another news page - BBC ?
@mrmo was using EU to mean the 27 countries. As I said we wouldn't stand in the way of an EU passport, zero cost to us.
Trade figures notoriously volatile month to month, changes in behaviour can take a while to filter through. Read that commentary on another news page - BBC
Alright let's come back to this one in two or three months then shall we?
🙂 touché
Hey TMH would love to hear your theory on the Ryan Air price cuts due to Brexit .. please play !
Another question ... with Trump now President I cannot see any way the IMF will get involved in another Greek bailout, there is not a snowballs chance he will put US money up for that.
Hey TMH would love to hear your theory on the Ryan Air price cuts due to Brexit .. please play !
Aren't RyanAir based out of Dublin? So wouldn't they measure profits in Euros and due to the Titanic success we are making of Brexit the £ to Euro value has dropped.
So, ninfan suggested on the other thread that he viewed the EU as similar to NAFTA. If I understand correctly NAFTA allows the US to exploit Mexico for cheap goods and labour whilst paying them not enough money.
Is this the case with EU expansion to the poorer states? I've dealt with IT outsourcing to those countries and they seem to value the work quite highly. Given that they can educate themselves quite well, it turns that into cash quite nicely and gains them experience.
Is ninfan right in comparing the two?
Key difference with NAFTA is they have no freedom of movement. EU does allow factories and online businesses be located abroad with lower costs (cheap labour/ultra-low taxes) as per NAFTA so in that sense it's directly comparable. Your IT work allows the poorer country to upscale economically and educationally - that does come at the expense of UK contractors - and ontop of that we pay £££ billions for that privilege.
Hey TMH would love to hear your theory on the Ryan Air price cuts due to Brexit .. please play !
What's the question?
IIRC, UK is 25-30% of sales, and revenue from sales is not -15% in value terms. On top of that actual sales are struggling (I think). So double wammy.
I mentioned before that the price elasticity of demand for UK exports is inelastic, so the trade data is of no major surprise. Not good though.
Play - after this weekend I am bored with Brexshit and the coverage. The only decent thing I have read or listened to was on R4 yesterday - Joshua Rosenburg's programme on the legal aspects of the ruling. Objective and considered - a rarity these days.
Your IT work allows the poorer country to upscale economically and educationally - that does come at the expense of UK contractors
I am not sure that's the case to be honest. Contractors are still in employment, but the capability has simply expanded.
IT is not a finite market. Given more resources and money, you can always simply do more - there's no shortage of projects. Unlike say agriculture, where the amount of food you can grow and eat is finite and hence the work that needs to be done - you can only reduce costs.
Joshua Rosenburg's programme on the legal aspects of the ruling.
What did it say?
I am not sure that's the case to be honest. Contractors are still in employment, but the capability has simply expanded.
Rates haven't gone up in 20 years. So I assume competition plays a part.
not a finite market
You'll have blown his mind there.
JR plus two legal profs explaining the issues without the BS - it was 30 mins so a little difficult to summarise.
I didn't tihnk there was any BS..? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
Rates haven't gone up in 20 years. So I assume competition plays a part.
20 years ago rates were ludicrous, it was the dotcom boom. There's a good deal of normalisation going on there. And there probably is no longer a shortage, so that's partly related to outsourcing. However rates and salaries are still decent and there's still work. So.. dunno.
. And there probably is no longer a shortage, so that's partly related to outsourcing.
Well, yeah. Isn't that the same as...
Your IT work allows the poorer country to upscale economically and educationally - that does come at the expense of UK contractors
Competition is good AFAIC but if I was a contractor I wouldn't be so keen.
I didn't tihnk there was any BS..?
Not with the ruling no - but the reaction on all sides was ludicrous. For two days the coverage was all hyperbole/BS.
But what if you were a bank wishing to get some software written? You'd appreciate it then.
I'm sure there is some interesting economic theory about small suppliers who have niche skills the shortage of which holds up larger businesses.
I think you missed the bottom half of my post. 🙂
Edit: or I was too vague. Lower rates are good for me.
TMH O'Leary announced that as a result of Brexit he was cutting UK fares by 15% ? Once the UK leaves the EU capacity will be reduced somhe will be raising them after ? I can understand the second part, the first makes no sense other than to agressively undercut competition - loss leading ?
Andy - surely it's just empty seats? I have no evidence for that of course. I try never to fly Ryanair.
Here is a graph to help with the Ryanair conundrum. Both parts.
[img] 
[/img]
Oh, and no wonder Farage is after a new gig. His MEP train has run out of gravy.
If Farage does end up working for Trump, presumably we can just ignore the referendum and he won't notice?
But won't he be an immigrant stealing some poor hard working American's job?
So he's a hypocrite - what's new?
Posted in Trump thread also
Some in Government think they have just been dealt the Brexit Trump card
On the other hand if Trump goes isolationist, and we've just turned our backs on Europe, annoyed the Chinese and worried the Indians, then we may have problems.
jambalaya - MemberSome in Government think they have just been dealt the Brexit Trump card
if you are referring to our resident brexit fantasists Davies & Fox then pardon me for not getting too excited
Even trumps smart enough to know that out of the EU we are just an inconsequential country unable to shake off our delusions of empire
Some in Government think they have just been dealt the Brexit Trump card
Who knew we had idiots in charge of our country ?
His views on Nato, general isolationism and his dislike of trade deals - year them up/make them pay [unless he/USA is the big winner] suggests that he is unlikely to help and it wont be a partnership of equals.
oh dear
bearing in mind these comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/10/nigel-farage-jokes-about-trumps-alleged-sexual-assaults?CMP=fb_gu
and his disgust at how VL & the Tories treated him post referendum
Ill bet that our egomaniac in chief has set himself up as the exclusive dealmaker for the UK
we
r
fuct!
He's already said he'll look after Number One, and any deal anyone signs with the USA will only be in the USA's favour.
#brexshit just got shitter...
Could not agree less b r, Trump being President helps us a lot re: Brexit
I really hope Farage gets the US / EU gig that would just be hysterical
there can be no stronger sign of the soundness of your argument than Jamby taking the opposite view Trump does deals where he wins he is proud of this and he brow beats the weaker into accepting what is best for him
He may well prioritise a deal with us and it will be a great one .....but not for us
"He's already said he'll look after Number One, and any deal anyone signs with the USA will only be in the USA's favour."
A vast number of people in EU countries are horrified by the concept of a trade deal with the states. (Without even knowing what's in TTIP they're against it.)
I suspect you're in a minority if not having a trade deal with the states has been bothering you.
I really hope Farage gets the US / EU gig that would just be hysterical
Yes he described Obama as a 'loathsome creature' which has enough echoes of subhumanity, to please his fans in the BNP etc but not racist enough to get him properly called out
The man is a class act, I'd love it if the rest of the world thought he represents Britain 🙄
"Trump does deals where he wins he is proud of this and he brow beats the weaker into accepting what is best for him"
He won you round quick.
there can be no stronger sign of the soundness of your argument than Jamby taking the opposite vie
Junky it must get tedious being on the losing side all time time though, no ? 😉 My Brexit stance I thought would see me on the loosing side but even that has been topped by Trump winning me being one of the very few who thought he could win. As per the two American guest analysts on Newsnight yesterday I think Le Penn now has a very good chance of being the next French President.
As I have said a number of times before the make up and stance of Europe and fhe EU could look very different in 6 and 12 months time. So far everything has gone in favour of the UK in Brexit.
oh or outofbreath gleefully trolling you - I forgot that one 🙄
it must get tedious being on the losing side all time time though, no ?
I comfort myself with the knowledge that i am not in agreement with racist morons
TTIP is dead, I can't see any way Trump will continue with it, not a priority and he won't bother with the EU objections. He won't pick up an Obama deal/idea anyway. He is far more likely to challenge the EU on cushy tax deals with Apple, Google etc which he sees depriving the US of tax revenues. Take a renewed pop at Airbus ? etc He is going to put pressure on NATO and tell Europe as a whole to pay in more.
I comfort myself with the knowledge that i am not in agreement with racist morons
Harsh words for the 55% of Scots who voted No.
"I comfort myself with the knowledge that i am not in agreement with racist morons"
Except for the racist morons who think he'll negotiate deals where the USA wins who you totally agree with.
Andy - you appear to be wishing another Western European war on us. I assume that is actually your goal.
If not, you need to sit back and look at the wider picture very quickly.
TTIP is dead, I can't see any way Trump will continue with it, not a priority and he won't bother with the EU objections
Hasn't he already said he's going to bin it?
Sexit looking far more likely now.
igm, you might not agree with Jamba (sorry if you don't like me missing out the "lya" part, Jamba) but not using his pseudo or a variant on it comes across as very aggressive.
Trying to bully people into silence will comfort them in their views, engage with them, present evidence and perhaps give them sound reasons to doubt their position.
Merican elect President Trump & PM May will get along very well.
BritLand will not have to go to the back of the queue, unlike the threat from an out-going President, in fact BritLand might be right in front of the queue all of a sudden.
I see a hat-trick. Yes!
I score!
I score!
Yes, an own goal......
Sexit
Wha?
It is 2 - Nil. You score?milleboy - Member
Yes, an own goal......I score!
google says its what we call it if Sweden leave
Are Sweden likely to leave?
Good program (Law in Action) on radio 4 right now discussing the implications of the recent ruling on triggering article 50.
Google suggests that's Swexit, and support for EU membership has actually gone up, apparently.
Sexit = Soft Brexit
Edukator - I previously jokingly complained that jambalaya was too long to type on an iPad and he suggested J or Andy. If it comes across as aggressive, my apologies both to him and others reading - it is not meant that way. If anything it was meant as a more human form of address, as I find the names people hide behind on here a little disconcerting at times. For the record igm is Iain Gavin Miller. I probably won't resond to Gavin as I won't think it's me.
As for evidence or reasoned argument, I have posted a few times on here that the three legs that have moved western Europe away from its normal state of war every 30 years or so are being eroded - the EU by Brexit, NATO by Trump and May has spoken out against the ECHR. It's not inevitable but I can see dark clouds ahead - hopefully it's snow not gunsmoke (which sent that dark).
Do I believe Jamba wishes war? Not really, but I think he needs to think of the bigger picture.
I also don't think he's racist - or at least no more than I am. But I do think he sometimes he writes things that can easily be construed that way. (Appears I could lay something similar at my door)
Do I agree with him? Occasionally, and he with me, if you read our exchanges.
Will I ever support his views on breaking up a very useful economic union? Probably not, but it's not impossible
Do I wish to see him or anyone else on here bullied? No
And Jamba, Andy, if you want a personal apology, or just to see if we can get that ride / drink organised - my email is in my profile.
I though sexit was something about Trump doing something then leaving
15,100!
Do I win?
Not sure who posted this article earlier(in this or the trump thread), but it's really interesting, tho pretty chilling...
people to feel they have lost control of their country and destiny, people look for scapegoats, a charismatic leader captures the popular mood, and singles out that scapegoat. He talks in rhetoric that has no detail, and drums up anger and hatred. Soon the masses start to move as one, without any logic driving their actions, and the whole becomes unstoppable.
But at the time people don’t realise they’re embarking on a route that will lead to a destruction period. They think they’re right, they’re cheered on by jeering angry mobs, their critics are mocked. This cycle, the one we saw for example from the Treaty of Versaille, to the rise of Hitler, to the Second World War, appears to be happening again. But as with before, most people cannot see it because:
1. They are only looking at the present, not the past or future
2. They are only looking immediately around them, not at how events connect globally
3. Most people don’t read, think, challenge, or hear opposing views
The scenario he predicts following brexit is pretty scary, almost exactly what Jambalaya has been saying all along.. brexit, trump, le pen, fractured EU, followed by - aggressive putin, weakened NATO, terrorism, nuclear war, etc.
He asks whether in the future historians will look at brexit as the Archduke Ferdinand moment for the destruction that follows... interesting stuff!
@igm nothing to apologise for (unless it's been deleted unseen 😉 ) and as you say I suggested J or Andy. I use Jambalaya on a few forums, habit. Those forums have a quote function so no need to type people's IDs. Name comes from watching NFL in New Orelans and eating spiced cajun rice to soak up the Hurricanes.
No I really don't want a war but I am a bit cheesed off by NATO members who don't pay their way, whine about what the US/UK is doing and then expect to be bailed out when Putin comes calling. I think Trump stepping back internationally will prove more dangerous than current US policy as it will be "someone else's" problem and I am not sure they are ready, EU and UN included. Why is Canada even in Ukraine with military advisers and trainers ?
I am throughly bored with political correctness and that probably shows in my posts.
Hard Brexit WTO trade, no freedom of movement, no budget contributions
Soft Brexit Tariff free trade, no freedom of movement, no budget contributions 🙂
We all think Trump is nuts but the French especially and Germans too must be besides themselves. I can't imagine what Junker will be thinking, it's all unravelling. Frankly just as it should - EU returns to EEC. I could be completely wrong but the IMF is going to be very different with a Trump nominee at the table, oh to be a fly on the wall in Lagrande's office. Syriza will need more money, where is it going to come from ?
@Neb yes I read that. I really believe people are saying "hold on, we want to go in a different direction" and politics tends to shift rightwards when economic times are hard, France has double UK unemployment rate and the Socialists under Hollande have had their turn and have failed, I think France could well go for the "nuclear option" with Le Penn
Jambalaya, lots of people agreed with you that the UK leaving the EU would damage it, and could be the opening move in it unraveling completely, you weren't some kind of lone soothsayer there, the difference is that some of us see this as a (very) bad thing. One of the many reasons I voted Remain was because I want all the countries in Europe to continue on a path that binds us together economically, and stops states retreating away from democracy and peace in Europe. It wasn't long ago that many countries in Europe were led by dictators and caught up in nativist fervour. It could happen again, unless we support the institutions and relationships that help prevent it.
The whole 'financially better off in" is just a bonus, and one that helps indirectly to keep us safe, as poverty is a great tool for fascists and racists to use to get their way.
A National Front win is looking more likely with each election, and we might have provided the push that makes it actually happen this time. Well done us.
Thanks for the explanation about the use of "Andy", I'd missed the invitation.
Time to step away from this thread for me, the Brexit hasn't made "anything possible". Europe, the US and Russia are putting more efforts into fighting common enemies than each other. Trump behaved with dignity through his first day as president elect (we don't all think Trump is nuts). Marine Le Penn is a long, long way from an absolute majority.
And I'm still waiting for Article 50 which seems less likely the longer I wait.
Have fun, the last few pages have gone just a little too far over the top to maintain my interest.
It is 2 - Nil. You score?
You've scored two own goals? 😛
15,100!Do I win?
Yes, you win a biscuit that now costs more due to importing some of the ingredients.
Soft Brexit is the Norway model 🙂
A good analysis of how it came to this...
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/apr/15/neoliberalism-ideology-problem-george-monbiot
kelvin/neb +1
putin looking to blame foreigners for the soviet's domestic problems and trying to restore nationalist pride ( chap on ch4 news last week said that >50% of the soviet population [i]expect[/i] nuclear conflict with the west in short/medium term! )
balkans rumbling away with impatience at the 'solution' they have there
the steady disintegration of european union.
now with trump at the helm the future of NATO starts to look shaky?
take on board the euro problems and see that fiscal union without a unified monetary policy is folly, but the logical thing is deeper political union, not break up.
we and most of our parents have lived in halceon times, where we have not been called upon to make the same sacrifices that many of our grandparents and those before them have had to make.
why are we so keen to ignore the lessons of history?
when what you do is get up in the morning 5 days a week to go to work to pay the mortgage ( if you're lucky! ) what does it matter if the society you live in is administered from edinburgh, westminster, or brussels?
the logical thing is deeper political union, not break up.
I agree.
Just out of idle interest, what is the problem with a United States of Europe? Assuming it is based on democratically elect representatives in each council I don't really see it is an issue. Or am I just being a mug?
Also, couldn't there even be a middle ground option. Rather than having a federal European Nation, why not something akin to the UK, the United Kingdoms of Europe maybe?
I dunno, maybe I just haven't read up enough on the Eurosceptic perspective.
@ kelvin good analysis never comes from that writer of left wing liberal click bait
Or am I just being a mug?
It's all based on notions of us and them. Brussels is a hell of a lot closer to London than Washington is to Arizona, but the inhabitants of say Phoenix consider Washington as 'us' and we call Brussels 'them'.
So it's more of a perception thing then?
For the love of God Peyote we can't have Johnny euro foriegner in charge of us..... Much better to bend over for the rest of the world.
So it seems that Trump has won, despite Clinton getting a higher percentage of the popular vote, due to the vagaries of the US democratic system. Tough say Trump supporters, this is how the system works.
So having legally shown that our parliament now needs to vote on article 50 before its' implementation, and given that in the absence of the Whip, most MPs have previously said they would vote to remain in the EU, could the vagaries of our own democratic process also overturn the popular vote?
So having legally shown that our parliament now needs to vote on article 50 before its' implementation, and given that in the absence of the Whip, most MPs have previously said they would vote to remain in the EU, could the vagaries of our own democratic process also overturn the popular vote?
who knows, but, we vote for MPs to do what is in the best interest of the country. To represent our interests. It may be odd but remember that what is of interest is not always what is in the interest of.
If MPs believe that the deal presented will destroy the UK economy then i would expect them to vote it down. If the deal does not damage the economy then i would expect them to vote it through.
who knows, but, we vote for MPs to do what is in the best interest of the country. To represent our interests. It may be odd but remember that what is of interest is not always what is in the interest of.
Exactly, and why referendums are a nonsense.
Imagine the results of a referendum based on the question - Do you want to lower taxes.
I would guess majority would say yes without any idea of implications or even what specific taxes would be lowered (sound familiar)
Government exists to add some logic and sense to it (or try to)
For the love of God Peyote we can't have Johnny euro foriegner in charge of us..... Much better to bend over for the rest of the world.
Johnny Foreigner may do a better job though!
I once heard an interesting thought experiment: rather than allowing the electorate of a given democratic sovereignty to vote for who they wish to govern them, the entire rest of the world should be allowed to vote instead. Apply this to the entire world and see what happens!
My brain started to turn to mush when I thought about the implications, and the potential for corruption, but it was an interesting idea nonetheless.
A few mp said they would vote against Brexit. Including the lib dem, only 8 mps, few labour and snp.
Not enough to make difference.
So it seems that Trump has won, despite Clinton getting a higher percentage of the popular vote,
Except it isn't by very much, some states have still to return and if the popular vote was what mattered then the candidates would campaign differently. You didn't see Trump in California (for example) because they were always going to give their electoral college votes to Clinton. If the popular vote mattered, he might have dropped by to get a few.
The electoral college system affects the campaign, not just the results.
So having legally shown that our parliament now needs to vote on article 50 before its' implementation, and given that in the absence of the Whip, most MPs have previously said they would vote to remain in the EU, could the vagaries of our own democratic process also overturn the popular vote?
It might happen, although unlikely. But it won't be presented as overturning the popular vote - it will be "I support Brexit because the people said so, but not on the terms the government is proposing."
I doubt any MP is prepared to stand up and say "the referendum outcome was wrong" but that does't mean that they will support the government's Brexit bill.
Some MPs may vote with their constituency result which I think is fair enough although not the point of the referendum.