[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

This weeks 'Ben Elton' monologue

I thought this was a joke initially, but it appears to be real - The Brexit Commmemorative Gold Plated Coin!
- http://www.westminstercollection.com/p-838W/The-BREXIT-Gold-Plated-Commemorative.aspx?sn=5&gclid=CNyT3JKvyc0CFQtAGwodUQEKgQ#tAGwodUQEKgQ

I've had enough. I'm going to bed. When I wake up hopefully it will all have been a bad dream.

Phew!.....panic over.....we're not leaving, or at least I am starting to believe so.

[url= https://m.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1200279093330132&id=137432829614769 ]Link to David Allen Greens analysis of Article 50[/url] from a link I followed from George Magnus on Twitter.

One of the positives of this entire Brexit charade is that I am now starting to follow some very interesting economic and political thinkers on Twitter/online blogs, and I am realising that the Economics higher that I studied and passed at school with an A (smug prick alert 😉 ) is totally bloody useless.

Another interesting well written article on [url= http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2016/06/26/fiscal-space-what-fiscal-space/#more-7104 ]Brexit and the consequences by Steven kinsella[/url]

Brexit - Day 5
The housemates are all still sleeping off a massive hangover, occasionally Boris looks up but then hides again hoping it will all be just a bad dream...

So 5 days in and good news a new PM to deal with this by September, over 2 months of this to go...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-28/global-sharemarkets-continue-to-plunge-following-brexit/7549358

The Dow Jones Index fell 1.5 per cent or 261 points to 17,140.

The S&P 500 lost 1.8 per cent or 37 points to 2,001 hit by a dive in banks, with Bank of America falling more than 6 per cent and JP Morgan dumping more than 3 per cent.

The Nasdaq plunged 2.4 per cent or 114 points to 4,594 on fears that Brexit could hurt the technology sector.

In Europe, markets were hit again as British Prime Minister David Cameron rejected calls for a second vote on Brexit.

In London, the FTSE lost 2.6 per cent or 156 points to 5,982; in Frankfurt, the DAX tumbled 3 per cent or 289 points to 9,269; while in Paris, the CAC 40 also declined 3 per cent or 122 points to 3,985.

In local futures trade, the ASX SPI 200 has dived 1.3 per cent, or 67 points, to 5,001.

Fitch cut its credit rating by one notch from AA+ to AA, with a negative outlook.

It lowered Britain's economic growth forecast to 0.9 per cent in 2017 and 2018 from 2 per cent previously.

"Fitch believes that uncertainty following the referendum outcome will induce an abrupt slowdown in short-term GDP growth," its analysis read.

Both ratings agencies listed a possible second referendum on Scottish independence as a significant risk in the future.

To borrow a phrase the Tories are dicking around with party politics while everything around them burns.

Things will stabalise eventually, but a recovery needs some credible and positive action. Not half baked ideas and speculation or Jamby's special blend of doesn't agree/doesn't exist reasoning.
Project fear is being exposed as lies - the EU might not have been that bad after all, the rest of the world seems to think the UK is making a big mistake.

The very sad part is by the time somebody gets round to making a decision the UK will be set back 5-10 years. Confidence and credibility will be smashed.

Even something so simple as BoJo etc declaring he was up for the job and meeting CMD to discuss options with any other potential challenger.

Lol everything is short term. To what is actually going to happen is basically nothing
We are all to in twinned and that's why everything is inverted commas short time worded.
The U.K. Is structurally sound and the banks have been constantly tested since of their collapse.
Against a fragile European economy full of nearly all members in debt. Just give up all the speculation and the what if's
Nothing is going to happen without hurting the other and the U.K. Economy is singly stronger and we can lower
our interest rates and also print new money, in Europe you cannot do that but take out a further loan.

Yep the short term is bad and damaging, it will influence business and their investment decisions which are long term. It will impact the very fragile recovery that will be hampered by the levels of debt the country has and individuals have. Lowering interest rates and printing cash? So Inflation, you cost of living rises but you have no way to increase your income? Standards of living drop? Peoples ability to spend drops? Demand drops?

To what is actually going to happen is basically nothing

How long before TATA, BMW, Toyota, Nissan start following the banks and start moving to Europe?

gLol everything is short term. To what is actually going to happen is basically nothing

This seems be a common brixteer's response. What it they are really saying is that the best case scenario is that we end where we would be if we had voted to stay, but with less political influence and no money saving.

And with a ****ed-over economy in the mean time. More than 2 months of paralysis before we even get a govt!

Genius. I'm going to start running my projects etc at work with no 'what if' planning. Bound to all come good.

Actually I suspect I'd lose my job fairly quickly.

We have to look at the what if's otherwise we won't know which is the best path out of this mess. We do need a plan, we do need to look forward, and backwards (to understand how we got here).

To say otherwise is grossly negligent (well if would be if you were in a position of power but no one in power would not have a plan...).

it is as if the whole thing is secretly being run by this bloke
[img] [/img]
Without any of the good luck and funny jokes

Has the EU suddenly become the super state that people feared? if you are not in the club the union will deliberately screw you.

I'm beginning to think this could be the best thing to happen to the UK for decades.. a whiff of a political revolution without a brick being thrown.

Has the EU suddenly become the super state that people feared? if you are not in the club the union will deliberately screw you.

Not really, so basically on predictions remain are still up with leave yet to score 1 correct answer...

YOu also have to define screwing over, it implies malice whereas the EU is doing what is best for the EU and those that want to remain. Complaining they are going to screw us over by not giving us everything we want for no cost to us is not very accurate.

How long until the bricks start flying though? Contracting economy, a rapidly unraveling pack of lies about immigration and investment, the anger is going to keep building.

I had thought that maybe it would all sort itself out fairly soon, and we'd end up with a Norway-like setup once the grownups took charge.

But now, I don't know. This is going to drag on until September's Tory leadership election at the earliest, by which time we will be in a proper full-on recession.

I think I will actually start moving what's left of my various pension funds and ISAs into funds that are going to be less exposed to this giant omnishambles. It's going to get worse, and I think I'll let people who are more optimistic than me have my UK shares.

As for the racism that's been allowed out by the leave campaign, that also has nasty consequences that can't be ignored.

Protectionism at the cost of a country outside the club is not something to be championed though is it? The EU will be working hard to create something acceptable for all.

He refused to contemplate any such possibility. I asked him again during the general election campaign - he was no more willing to consider failure. The civil service were banned from making plans for Brexit.

Why are people surprised there is no 'Plan'. Of course there isn't.

Why would we spend millions on a new [s]government[/s] civil service department to deal with this when it may never come to fruition. It was the same with the Scottish referendum. As far as the CS go, it's business as usual. They react in large scale situations like this otherwise the potential loss of public expenditure is too great.

they have not bit the westminster elite they have punched themself in the face and they are too stupid to realise this

Actually it's more like they've kicked themselves in the nuts. If you've ever been kicked in the nuts, there's a brief period where you think 'odd - I thought that would hurt?'

and then the pain comes....

Collectively we're in that in between bit, but shortly we'll be doubled over with only ourselves to blame

There's no plan because there is no plausible goal or path. We might as well have voted for everyone to be given a unicorn, and then complained that no-one had a plan to catch them.

theocb - Member
Protectionism at the cost of a country outside the club is not something to be championed though is it? The EU will be working hard to create something acceptable for all.

Funny how the pro-leave posters and politicians seem to be just crossing their fingers and hoping...

It's like a bunch of 7 years olds saying they wish their parents would stop telling them what to do, then waking up and finding they were on their own.

The spelling and grammar and intelligence of the thought displayed by them would do for a bunch of 7 year olds. The playground racism of the Brexiteers too. 🙁

If it wasn't such a tragedy that is going to screw things up for my kids, I'd laugh. But the old have screwed things up for the young, and the less educated and invested in society have screwed things up for themselves.

theocb - Member
Protectionism at the cost of a country outside the club is not something to be championed though is it? The EU will be working hard to create something acceptable for all.

So why is it acceptable for the UK to only think about itself and essentially put two fingers up to the rest of Europe, but not for the EU to do the same?

The argument seems to be that it's perfectly fine for us as a country to do something which has massive effects to others, not just in Europe but also around the world. That we can do all this stuff in our own selfish self interest, but when the other countries look to do the same thing and protect themselves from the mess we have started then people start to complain that it's not fair etc...

That sounds dangerously like a 'do as I say and not as I do' type argument!

Day 5

I still feel sad 🙁

I'm over eating

I've not ridden my bike

I've not ridden my bike

The other EU countries have their own constraints, and couldn't be generous to the UK even if they wanted to. Meanwhile Boris is still living on fantasy island, Hunt was the most recent to come out with a nonsense statement (negotiate a settlement and then have another referendum/election [b]before[/b] invoking article 50)...it's as if they think they can make things happen just by saying them.

Has the EU suddenly become the super state that people feared? if you are not in the club the union will deliberately screw you.

Well, this is exactly what the EU said would happen- no deals, get out. Why are you surprised?

I'm seeing this now with Brexiters- the realisation that the EU meant what they said, and a dawning realisation that maybe we aren't the special snowflakes we thought we were.....

Bit like the UK/US special relationship, we think it's a relationship, they think we are special

Has the EU suddenly become the super state that people feared? if you are not in the club the union will deliberately screw you.

WHat like when RUK said Scotland could not have its currency?
Separate unions dont look after the ones who leave they look after themselves- this is not about "superstate its just obvious. We dont help out Japan or Canada or etc

I'm beginning to think this could be the best thing to happen to the UK for decades.. a whiff of a political revolution without a brick being thrown.

We seem to have given power to politicians who dont have a clue what they want, have no plan to deliver and are backpedalling furiously on their own pledges[ lies basically] to the extent they are not even claiming they will be delivered.
How is this a change?

he EU will be working hard to create something acceptable for all.

The EU willok after the EU they have said CLEARLY that to be in the club you need to follow the rules there is no special deal for us and they will look after the EU

we can lower
our interest rates and also print new money

[img] [/img]

How long until the bricks start flying though? Contracting economy, a rapidly unraveling pack of lies about immigration and investment, the anger is going to keep building.

the fact that the living embodiment of the establishment (Boris and IDS) posed as an anti-establishment vote and got away with it is incredible enough (seriously - HOW stupid and gullible?). But even they must be getting nervous about now implimenting their true agenda. Because to reach their goal of a corporatist neo-liberal nirvana, then surely the NHS (and other public services) must be starved of funds, and immigration will need to increase to drive wages down further (how long before the minimum wage is abolished?)

To a population who are already (sadly belatedly) realising they've been well and truly bent over, I can't see this playing well

grantway - Member

Lol everything is short term. To what is actually going to happen is basically nothing
We are all to in twinned and that's why everything is inverted commas short time worded.
The U.K. Is structurally sound and the banks have been constantly tested since of their collapse.
Against a fragile European economy full of nearly all members in debt. Just give up all the speculation and the what if's
Nothing is going to happen without hurting the other and the U.K. Economy is singly stronger and we can lower
our interest rates and also print new money, in Europe you cannot do that but take out a further loan.

Do you know what you're even typing?

It's interesting, when looking at responses as a whole across many forums and facebook the general observations I have taken is that leave voters (or those that depict themselves as leave votes) generally type poorly worded responses with poor grammar, while the remainers type coherent responses with, in the main correct grammar and so on.

Just an observation.

On to your response Grantway, we're going to print our own money are we? Do you know what that even means?
We can lower our interest rates now? You do realise we've been doing that while we were part of the EU because we didn't join the single currency.

The UK economy is sound (or was), because it's been able to build itself up using the EU market (in the main) to do so, but the British public has decided to torpedo that progress. Banks are currently structurally sound, but if inflation goes up which is likely, prices will go up, demand will drop for all but the bare essentials, businesses will go out of business and jobs will begin to disappear.

Banks can't do much about all of that. Now some may say that's an extreme view, but a possibility in both the short to medium and long term.

I don't think the EU will say **** off, the best solution for everyone is that the UK stays a member of the single market, but they will expect the UK to meet the same conditions as everyone else to have that access, if that is unpalatable to the UK then we will be shown the door.

The response so far from the EU (and the member states) has been professional and courteous, shame the same cannot be said of the UK.

Other than the hard line fascists with zero power like Farage, I don't think any of the politicians really want brexit. Given how close the vote was, a climb down is not political suicide. At worst you piss off half the electorate. the conservatives win because they're not the party that dragged us out of Europe. The threat of a UK breakup is significantly reduced. Whoever takes over as PM gets a better run at it. The Labour Party may stop imploding. Financial stability returns and confidence comes back.

If we can go to war based on outright lies, we can reverse this debacle.

@ MSP quite right but their response is a little different to I imagine the man baby and his mates were expecting i.e. no negotiations before Art 50 is triggered etc which must be a disappointment to them.

I'm a solicitor in a small rural practice in mid wales and I was talking to one of my predominantly farming client's yesterday who is now regretting his decision. I asked him would he want me to purchase a farm for him without undertaking all the normal due diligence (searches enquires etc) so he could take an informed view as to whether or not to proceed with the matter to which his response was of course not and then he seemed to be unable to give me an answer as to why he had voted to leave without there having been some sort of due diligence in place at to what the consequences would be........

I asked him would he want me to purchase a farm for him without undertaking all the normal due diligence

this is the UK we don't read the manual !! 😳

Other than the hard line fascists with zero power like Farage, I don't think any of the politicians really want brexit. Given how close the vote was, a climb down is not political suicide. At worst you piss off half the electorate. the conservatives win because they're not the party that dragged us out of Europe. The threat of a UK breakup is significantly reduced. Whoever takes over as PM gets a better run at it. The Labour Party may stop imploding. Financial stability returns and confidence comes back.

If we can go to war based on outright lies, we can reverse this debacle.

No leaders to do this until September (unless you're thinking of the Queen). So I fear this may be whistling in the dark.

No leaders to do this until September (unless you're thinking of the Queen). So I fear this may be whistling in the dark.

Initial hysteria will have calmed by then. The only real risk of a climbdown is sending voters towards UKIP.

Good. Get the nutters out of the Tory party and let them join UKIP. This would allow a Tory PM to act without pressure from his Euro-sceptic right wing. You could argue the same for the Labour party. I reckon the country is better served by having relatively cohesive parties so that the electorate knows what they are voting for.

Good. Get the nutters out of the Tory party and let them join UKIP. This would allow a Tory PM to act without pressure from his Euro-sceptic right wing.

Unlike the last few who have slipped out of both parties forcing a by election might not be a bad idea for some of them.

Because to reach their goal of a corporatist neo-liberal nirvana,

which is the same goal as the EU, so make your mind up as to which you want - why is neo-liberal under the EU OK, but it's not OK under a UK government?

the fact that the living embodiment of the establishment (Boris and IDS) posed as an anti-establishment vote and got away with it is incredible enough (seriously - HOW stupid and gullible?)

THIS.

Begs **** belief..

[quote=grantway ]Lol everything is short term. To what is actually going to happen is basically nothing

I know everybody else has already clobbered you, but let's just address this one properly: I presume you've not noticed the credit agencies downrating us, giving us a negative forecast and predicting lower growth? All that stuff is at least medium if not long term predictions.

Do you know better than the experts, or is it that you've "had enough of experts"? Whilst we're at it, what's your feeling about homeopathy?

Don't worry another unlikely hero might come to the rescue - Hunt is calling for a second vote!!!

How about aligning with dear old Jeremy.

This debate does throw up some wonderfully ironic bed fellows. 😉

Meanwhile

26 April - [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-junior-doctors-strike-contract-last-job-in-politics-nhs-health-secretary-a7001071.html ]Jeremy Hunt has said that being Health Secretary is likely to be his last big job in politics[/url]

28 June - [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-running-conservative-party-leader-second-eu-referendum-brexit-vote-a7106836.html ]Jeremy Hunt seriously considering running in Tory leadership race[/url]

Edit: beaten to it by teamhurtmore, good to see someone validating it, I did wonder if I actually just dreamt it, in a very, very bad dream

Ah good, Jeremy Hunt. That should ensure the negotiations go swimmingly. 😯