[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

@duckman French market down too (need to check but it was down more than uk), French economy is very sick with 10% unemployment its only going one way and at an increasingly rapid rate.

@tmh well for most pensioners the stock market makes no difference as they are on state pensions and/or final salary. Also its my contention the Brexit will be positice for the markets (including currency) and economy in the medium term. As I posted I am looking at re-patriating the large part of my pension invested overseas.

So, the grown ups took some steps in advance.

I am not so convinced.

It's a very vague speech, full of promises to do [i]something[/i] and ensure stability, but no actual detail.

Seems strange given that he is claiming to have planned for this.

There is however, this document by George Osborne but it is hardly reassuring, and tends to contradict the statements about ensuring stability:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

elliott all those basic human righrs we will retain in a replacement uk bill. The ECHR has repeatedly stalled extraditions and is increasingly being used as a legal catch-all to frustrate the UK legal process. IMO its another thing, like benefit restrictions or movement restrictions, the EU couod have reformed quite easily at limited cost to them and which probably would have kept the UK in. However they took the position that they would not offer it

CAC and FTSE broadly in the same negative territory

IMO - pensioners are more exposed to yield (or should be) and that is even lower. So they are unlikely to be happy. But you reap what you sow....

As I posted I am looking at re-patriating the large part of my pension invested overseas.

Yeah its now worth more as the pound is tanking

Well done you

@Horatio yes thats another scaremongering piece of government propoganda which George is having to swallow. These "reassuring the markets" speeches are usually deliberately quite vague.

jambalaya - Member
elliott all those basic human righrs we will retain in a replacement uk bill.

It's a very vague speech, full of promises to do something and ensure stability, but no actual detail.

We have one known, known - everything is very uncertain. In that context other that articulate plans "to do something and ensure stability', its pretty hard to give much further detail. What were you expecting?

I really do not see a scenario in 5 years time where we are worse off and certainly relative to Europe. We can start a new thread at the approproate time about the eurozone debt crises.

@rich a weaker curremcy is good for exporters, its swings and roundabouts. Switzerland has been working hard to stop its currency appreciating

@rich a weaker curremcy is good for exporters, its swings and roundabouts. Switzerland has been working hard to stop its currency appreciating

The tricky thing IF we leave is the EU and those still in will want to show you are better off in than out, and as such have an interest in seeing the UK do badly.

Not an ideal position to negotiate from.

[I]elliott all those basic human righrs we will retain in a replacement uk bill. The ECHR has repeatedly stalled extraditions and is increasingly being used as a legal catch-all to frustrate the UK legal process. IMO its another thing, like benefit restrictions or movement restrictions, the EU couod have reformed quite easily at limited cost to them and which probably would have kept the UK in. However they took the position that they would not offer it [/I]

Ok, tell me I'm thick - but please show me where the ECHR has anything to do with the EU. I do keep asking and still seen no evidence that this isn't the same 'crowd' who we helped set up after the war.

I really do not see a scenario in 5 years time where we are worse off and certainly relative to Europe. We can start a new thread at the approproate time about the eurozone debt crises.

So we'll have a lower GDP and have to pay in the same amount

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zms98

The tricky thing IF we leave is the EU and those still in will want to show you are better off in than out, and as such have an interest in seeing the UK do badly.

Not an ideal position to negotiate from.

they sold a lie they wont be accepting this

Anti Brexit March planned for 9 July.

Seems like a life time away.

Things could be very different by the end of this week, let alone 2 weeks.

Just had the Italian girl that works for me in my office in tears. Very uncertain about her future. Also concerned for her sister who works here in scientific research on projects that are EU funded. A lot of uncertainty over the funding and longer term prospects for her contract. She's also extremely upset about the anti-foreigner agenda in the media. Very sad to see.

She's also extremely upset about the anti-foreigner agenda in the media. Very sad to see.

Perhaps we could organise "Slap a racist day"

That would make an interesting petition... Of course I couldn't condone violence.

Of course I couldn't condone violence.

elliott all those basic human righrs we will retain in a replacement uk bill.

Ok, tell me I'm thick - but please show me where the ECHR has anything to do with the EU

Also concerned for her sister who works here in scientific research on projects that are EU funded. A lot of uncertainty over the funding and longer term prospects for her contract.

People are worried in the scientific community, theres already a strong movement to lobby the government, to ensure science is included in the negotiations or seek a guarantee that the government will match what we loose.

most people finding it very hard to be optimistic

http://www.abc.net.au/news/factcheck/promisetracker/
Won't go in as an image but this would be fun to get set up for the out lot

Perhaps we could organise "Slap a racist day"

This is great, but how do we slap an internet forum user?

Looks like another recession is coming to the U.K.

Markets dropping, hiring frozen and growth expected to be in the minus figures.

Normally I'd say ride the wave but I'm actually considering leaving the country and let people who voted out deal with the mess.

Then come back when it's all good in 30 years.

BoardinBob - Member
Just had the Italian girl that works for me in my office in tears. Very uncertain about her future. Also concerned for her sister who works here in scientific research on projects that are EU funded. A lot of uncertainty over the funding and longer term prospects for her contract. She's also extremely upset about the anti-foreigner agenda in the media. Very sad to see.
POSTED 21 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Well now she knows how non whites feel. And always have 2 passports - you never know what could happen. Not even the Jews of WW2 Germany think it could happen.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/5095-pound-to-dollar-exchange-rate-222311

elliott all those basic human righrs we will retain in a replacement uk bill. The ECHR has repeatedly stalled extraditions and is increasingly being used as a legal catch-all to frustrate the UK legal process. IMO its another thing, like benefit restrictions or movement restrictions, the EU couod have reformed quite easily at limited cost to them and which probably would have kept the UK in. However they took the position that they would not offer it

In your opinion you are miss-understanding what the ECHR actually means to all and every single human. Why should there need to be a reform when it has to work as a 'catch all'? For the best part it works exactly and completely uninhibited as it should, for the odd occasion where there needs to be intervention then there is. Not the other way round. What you are talking about is something completely different. There is utterly no need to remove or re-write something in place that needs to written as such to ensure the welfare of many, many people. Complaining about the Human rights conventions is the same as complaining about the police then phoning them when your house is burgled.

Again, where has the ECHR adversely and personally effect you or someone you know?

Ok, tell me I'm thick - but please show me where the ECHR has anything to do with the EU. I do keep asking and still seen no evidence that this isn't the same 'crowd' who we helped set up after the war.

Another 'let's' blame the EU. AFAIK the EU only has to 'accept' the ECHR. They we're created separately. The ECHR was drawn up in the aftermath of the war by the Council of Europe and later acknowledged by the EU. Please correct me if I am wrong.

It's a very vague speech, full of promises to do something and ensure stability, but no actual detail.

The stuff about BoE having amounts in reserve to promote liquidity and having swap lines in place seems pretty specific.

Mind you, these are just about averting the immediate economic Armageddon we have voted for - I think a lot of people forget that the financial system is capable of being broken by a cataclysmic event like a nuclear accident - or a population losing its mind.

In the longer term he's basically saying "thank the stars we did try to repair the economy, at least we have some foothold from which to try to avert this new disaster".

Don't get me wrong - this is a truly epic cock-up by the electorate - it is going to be incredibly damaging. It really needn't have happened - yet every man Jack of us except a few fortunate or clever opportunists is going to suffer for it.

But at least there are some politicians who 'get it' and are prepared to do the sums and take the decisions rather than just whip up the worst elements of national psyche with no plan in place.

Also, I like the underlying message - "some of us thought you lot might cock this up, so we took steps to save you from yourselves at least in the short term".

This is great, but how do we slap an internet forum user?

Junky I rely on the various articles I've read on Article 50 and this specific topic rather than anything posted by yourself

All this EU funded stuff ... we pay in more than we get back, its all our money. You may well question whether a future UK government will decide to continue programmes but it will be our elected representstives who decide and we'll have another GE before anybreal changes take place.

Its starting to dawn on the other EU countries they are going to have to make up the budget shortfall.

As for economic impacts this is a long term game, you must factor in the impending eurozone implosion

The stuff about BoE having amounts in reserve to promote liquidity and having swap lines in place seems pretty specific.

Yes, those are the easy bits to ensure liquidity and financial stability. We knew that from Carney.

But still dont see what else he really could add, since we have no clarity on how things are going to play out.

I am not a great fan of GO but would give him 9/10 for this morning. Anyway we are probably saying much the same thing... 😉

Jambas - my understanding of A50 is pretty dodgy. Any good links from your reading to help me understand?

All this EU funded stuff ... we pay in more than we get back, its all our money

Similarly, figures on EU NETT migration as opposed to non-EU migration and refugees?

I rely on the various articles I've read on Article 50 and this specific topic rather than anything posted by yourself

Once more you did not surprise,

Article 50 prevents younsigning a trade deal with a non-EU country

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

You have to be trawling when you do this sort of thing as no one could struggle to interpret that to the degree you are struggling. No one there is literally nothing about trade deals mentioned its beyond fatuous and into fantasy

I take it from the violent backtracking of BoJo that he bet heavily on Brexit actually not being voted for, but as he campaigned for them he could be a unifier in the Cons party with the line of "well lads, I wanted out but democracy ruled and the remain have it" thus winning over both sides of the party. Rock up to No 10 with keys in hand. Job done.

Similarly, figures on EU NETT migration as opposed to non-EU migration and refugees?

Well, [url= http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics ]according to Migration Watch UK[/url] the 2015 figures are:

[img] [/img]

The site lets you filter those results on different criteria if you are interested.

@rich a weaker curremcy is good for exporters, its swings and roundabouts. Switzerland has been working hard to stop its currency appreciating

And because the Swiss do it, it must be good right?

Not if you're a net importer like the UK, though. Fail.

You know that strong bargaining position we're apparently in? Seems our opponents aren't too worried....

http://gu.com/p/4mmxg/fb

They are playing hard ball???

Hang on, dont they need us more than we need them? Merkel in particular has all the car companies on her back.....

Well it looks like racist hate crime is back in vogue again.

[url= http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-issues-rallying-cry-to-londoners-after-brexit-vote-triggers-surge-in-hate-crime-a3281456.html ]cheers brexiteers[/url]

You literally are taking us all back to the early 70's, you ****ing bunch of Morons!

Wonder how the older OUTers feel now about the returns on their pensions Ro5ey - not that I expect that they thought that far.

Yep ... and if they were bemoaning getting nothing from savings accounts previously, the higher inflation from the weak pound (heard a 10cent fall increases inflation by 1% ?? ) their real return will defo be negative.

Are their ANY immediate or short term winners in this ?

International Lawyers for one.

All this EU funded stuff ... we pay in more than we get back, its all our money. You may well question whether a future UK government will decide to continue programmes but it will be our elected representstives who decide and we'll have another GE before anybreal changes take place.

Seriously it's like being out with your most unreliable mate, what was the comparison? The one who says lets leave this bar I know this awesome place and both ending up in the Kebab shop wondering how you got there

Well, according to Migration Watch UK the 2015 figures are:

It's certainly clear there has been a steady increase in both EU and non-EU net migration to Britain. It's not clear to me how much reduction there would be through leaving Europe as opposed to tackling that particular issue on its own, if indeed it needs tackling.

@jamba I have been waiting for the pending Eurozone implosion for 5 years luckily was not holding my breath.

I won't be able to post exact content, but just wanted to add an anonymised anecdote of what Brexit actually means in the public service I run:

I'm just off the phone to the major European organisation responsible for our equivalent line of work - let's just say that it's our mutual purpose do something very worthy and that this works best when humans and not borders are the consideration. We have agreements in place to share opportunities across borders, to help each other out in pursuit of this goal.

They are very worried about future cooperation and looking for reassurances, which I can't give.

They have also raised questions about what now happens to the various initiatives, where UK teams lead in the field and have the lion's share of EU funding.

All I could do was say that we are still members of the EU and that, for the time being, all stays the same. That's very much not how they were seeing it from other European countries' media coverage.

We are now going to have to spend time making sure agreements are reached to ensure that we still get access to things like cross-EU software for making our good stuff happen.

There is no dividend of "taking back control"; we already control the bits we need to - this is about international cooperation, which is helped by having an EU and not helped by being outside it.

This will now cost time and money to sort out, which our UK public service simply does not have.

😥

I'm expecting to see a major rowing back from- maybe by using an incredibly protracted delay, 2 or more years?- on any Article 50 exit, based on McKenzie's little snippet today:

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/suns-resident-idiot-kelvin-mackenzie-now-regrets-voting-leave-after-offering-10-reasons-for-brexit/

What's happened is this:

the expected succession didn't happen: Rupe fell out with Cameron way back, was aligning BoJo for the role, but the critical part- Cameron staying in and absorbing all flak for a failed Article 50 exit- didn't come to pass.

Confusion for Rupe, who called and said: delay until we get a plan that keeps Boris smelling rosy. Kelvin's just setting up leave-voters for the new reality: we're not leaving as no-one in Cons will take the job...

My prediction: we'll see a major backing away from the 'leave' decision in all Murdoch media over the next few days (this began already on Sky News over the weekend), and a watering down of the leave message in other right-leaning UK tabloids.

They need to do this as the average leaver will be concerned about democracy not being acted on, so readers need setting up for a 'limited exit'- no full Article 50- but a joyful proclamation that we've done well out of new negotiations.

In the background, Rupe will be working out who's next after BoJo- it may even come to pass that his attention will shift to favouring the Labour Party if he can get a better deal from them.