[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Even if the current EU is not functioning well, that does absolutely NOT mean that the idea of greater co-operation is a bad one. Simply walking out is not the solution.

Hmm, I seem to recall that we tried that, and the new offer that was negotiated was put to the people, who rejected it and decided that in fact walking away [b]was[/b] the solution

If you're basing the validity of a solution on a popular vote where most people weren't voting because of that problem, and ignoring all those who have since changed their minds, then yes that does make it the solution.

I seem to recall that we tried that

Not very bloody hard though! And we didn't try it with a referendum result in our pockets either.

And EVEN THEN simply going for hard brexit is walking away.

And as for the people deciding on the solution - hah. I'm not even remotely qualified to decide how to solve the problems of the EU, and I pay attention. What makes you think the public are qualified?

So MP's are going to get to vote on the post-brexit deal, once it's been agreed with the EU.

Yea, right... Pointless.

Pointless indeed. By the time of any vote the A50 timeline would not allow further negotiations anyway. So if MPs voted down any deal it would guaranty ultra-hard Brexit as that's the only other option

@molgrips we have been trying for decades to reform the EU but it just keeps rolling along towards the superstate. The EU refused to budge as they never believed we'd vote Leave

Exactly Jamby, see my comparison with driving increasingly faster down the 1 way street then add in the classic
[img] [/img]

Sign the A50 then let the Remain MPs argue until their face turn blue.

[quote="jambalaya"]

Over last 10 years the UK and Germany are the only countries to make net positive contributions to the EU, ...........

simply wrong. All these countries are net contributors
France, Italy, Germany, UK, netherlands Sweden Denmark ~Austria finland and others depending on source and accounting methods mainly based around admin costs and most of these pay more per person than the UK

slight differences between the two sources - can't be bothered to fact chack any more, maybe different years

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/22/eu-budget-spending-contributions-european-union

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start

In the US at the moment and not seeing the joy of Brexit.

Looking at cost of living here makes me wonder where the 'the pound was over valued' came from. At $1.20 back home looks exceedingly cheap. At $1.50 stuff in the UK still looks very good value.

Obviously my holiday spending money is not going very far. But also wondering how much this is going to benefit exports if they were already competitive. if we don't make stuff that people want it doesn't matter how cheap it is.

Nope this isn't a daily mash article

Andrea'2short planks' Loathsome has come up with a genius I idea to save or economy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/18/british-tea-jam-and-biscuits-will-be-at-the-heart-of-britains-br/. 😳

Lucky the UK Grows lots of those ingredients.

Andrea Leadsom 😯

What next, a giant thermomoeter on parlaiment square with "Save the [s]Church Roof[/s] Entire Country" scrawled on it?

From the article

Ian Wright, Director General of the Food and Drink Federation, said: “We are supporting the Government’s export drive with an ambition to grow branded food and drink exports by a third by 2020 to £6 billion. “Export growth is hugely important to our sector. We hope that the International Action Plan for Food and Drink will open more channels and provide direct support to new and existing food and drink exporters.”

jesus wept.

we might as well give up.

Clearly, we no longer have any interest in useless things like science, or high-value manufacturing. Our only option is to turn the entire country in a ****ing little-england theme-park.

@Mike think positive we can jump that 🙂

I'm confused, I thought we were all going to be eating British produce instead of exporting it once we crashed out of the single market?

Can someone explain to me why we need to be out of the EU to 'exploit' the Jam&Biscuits market, as it is occurring already.

[I]Andrea Leadsom, the Environment Secretary said: “With over £10 billion worth of food and drink sold overseas in the last seven months and exports up almost six per cent compared to 2015, there is no doubt we are open for business and ready to trade.[/I]

I wonder how much of that 10Bn is to the E.U.

Pointless indeed. By the time of any vote the A50 timeline would not allow further negotiations anyway.

Which is exactly why parliament should be allowed a vote [b]before[/b] A50 is triggered (exactly as the quoted government policy said that they must).
But to be honest I'm not to bothered about that because there is no way they'd dare to vote against actually leaving.

Far more importantly they should be allowed oversight and voting on the terms of our departure and the deals that are to be made. I can't see any reason for the government to be given a free hand here. The "people's mandate" only says that we want to leave, it gives no specifics about what Brexit actually looks like and it shouldn't be left to a few ministers to decide behind closed doors.

Before you poo poo that, bear in mind that those ministers could well decide on a "Brexit" that you don't want either (i.e. Norway model). They need to make their cases to parliament.

Which is exactly why parliament should be allowed a vote before A50 is triggered

Yeah they keep saying that. But May (and Jamba) also says that our position is clear: access to the single market without freedom of movement or forget it and we go to WTO.

If that is our hardline position then what's wrong with stating it?

True, but why then bother to negotiate ? Europe only has around 10% of exports to us and we have 45% to them - so we know we are going to get screwed

Personally I think it is all about managing expectations - they can turn round once we are screwed and say thats what we were after all along

Graham maybe May has already told them that face to face ? Yes agreed we could get an agreement I'm not happy with however all the calls for a vote on A50 are from Remainers trying to derail the process

[quote="jambalaya"] »

Over last 10 years the UK and Germany are the only countries to make net positive contributions to the EU, ...........

simply wrong. All these countries are net contributors
France, Italy, Germany, UK, Netherlands Sweden Denmark Austria Finland and others depending on source and accounting methods mainly based around admin costs and most of these pay more per person than the UK

slight differences between the two sources - can't be bothered to fact check any more, maybe different years

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/22/eu-budget-spending-contributions-european-union

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start

What is the real reason for this **** up?
Is it so that big business can rip up any workers rights they like to maximise their profits?
I really can't see anything in brexit that benefits anyone.
There must be an ulterior motive. Too much money is being lost,is Murdoch doing some sort of currency deal?

zippykona - Member

What is the real reason for this **** up?
Is it so that big business can rip up any workers rights they like to maximise their profits?

[s]nailed it.[/s]

edit: it's not just employment rights, don't forget the environmental and pollution legislation we'll be able to ignore.

I'm not happy with however all the calls for a vote on A50 are from Remainers trying to derail the process

If the boot was on the other foot I am willing to bet anything you'd be doing your damnedest to ensure you ended up with something palatable so don't start with any arguments about it being undemocratic or lacking patriotism!

Far more importantly they should be allowed oversight and voting on the terms of our departure and the deals that are to be made. I can't see any reason for the government to be given a free hand here. The "people's mandate" only says that we want to leave, it gives no specifics about what Brexit actually looks like and it shouldn't be left to a few ministers to decide behind closed doors.

Exactly.

Particularly when said Ministers have quite categorically proved them selves to be not much more than a bunch of shallow, self serving, ego driven individuals lacking in any moral fibre.

[quote=jambalaya ]I'm not happy with however all the calls for a vote on A50 are from Remainers trying to derail the process

Oh boo hoo.

all the calls for a vote on A50 are from Remainers trying to derail the process

You voted to Leave the EU because you felt it violated the sovereignty of the UK parliament.

So why are you now so keen to ignore the UK parliament?

This makes the points quite well:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/brexit-means-brexit-not-an-end-to-parliamentary-democracy-mps-mu/

Business did not want brexit, they will use the excuse to push rights and wages even further down, but that will not compensate for the damage done businesses will suffer far more.

Chewk and or Jamba..what do you personally expect to get from Brexit? Will you know when you finally have it?
If it's not having laws from Brussels can you tell me how they differ from laws from Westminster.
We are all feeling the negative aspects of voting out when will the positives begin?
Could you also please let me know when the positives start.

I can imagine the meeting where they came up with that genius Tea & Jam export idea

[b]May[/b]: We need to get a grip on this fast before we become a global laughing stock and the £ plunges further, what are our post Brexit Trade options?

[b]Civil Servant[/b]: Well erm, bit of a problem there

[b]Hammond[/b]: The city?

[b]Civil Servant[/b]: The big banks are all busy deciding on whether itll be Paris, Frankfurt or New York, loss of Passporting alone will cost us billions

[b]Leadsome[/b]: I had a succesful career in the city actually

[b]Hammond[/b]: thats lovely, any ideas what about manufacturing, automotives etc?

[b]Civil Servant[/b]: well its obvious without access to the single market Nissan & BMW will do a runner, Jaguar/Landrover too

[b]Fox[/b]: Dont be ridiculous Minis and Jags are a british institution, I buy a Jag a year on expenses, of course theyll want to stay here

[b]Civil Servant[/b]: well the interconnectedness of modern supply lines means that the low £ reduces the profitability of anyone who wants to stay here, add to that WTO tariffs and we'd have to pay them millions to consider staying.

[b]Hammond[/b]: what about the hi-tech- Aerospace, life sciences, the pencil stuff?

[b]Civil Srevant[/b]: While we currently lead the world in these fields, theyve already been shut out of many EU funding streams, there is already an exodus of european researchers the damage to collaborative networks that weve taken decades to build up will be irreversible. Many institutes are eyeing up Europe and the USA.

[b]May[/b]: Ungrateful citizens of nowhere!

[b]Hammond[/b]: OK what have got then the BRIC nations?

[b]Civil Servant[/b] Yes well fears of a slowdown in China are the biggest worry there, Russia is obviously off the cards, theyre burning effigies of Borris, and its not looking good for the rest.

[b]Davies[/b] Dont be so wet man, they will come running to us begging for favourable trade deals, we are the greatest nation on earth!

[b]Fox[/b]: yes what about something truly British?

[b]Leadsome[/b]: Tea & Scones?

[b]Fox[/b]: go on....

[b]Leadsome[/b]: well foreigners cant get enough of all our british exports

[b]Davies[/b]: Yes Tea, Jam, Lamb

[b]Fox[/b]: I like it, Let me speak to my man Ill arrange a trade delegation immediately - I keep suites at the finest hotels on hold accross Asia.

[b]Civil Servant[/b]: But erm... well Tea isnt produced here, WTO tarrifs would also hit that hard and the falling pound, jam is dependent on migrant fruit pickers from Europe and well lamb is rather seasonal and again, large import tar...

[b]Davies[/b]: shut up you whining remoaner! This is perfect, god Save the Queen!!

[b]Fox[/b] : Huzzah!

[b]Johnson[/b]: Huzzah!

[b]Leadsome[/b] : Gosh Im rather smart

[b]Johnson:[/b] We shall create a trading nation that will eclipse the heyday's of Alexandria, Constantinople and Carthage ! Ill whack out a release for the Telegraph immediately!

[b]Hammond[/b]: I cant be bothered typing up another resignation letter Theresa, ill just send the same one over again?

[b]May[/b]: yes, yes but if you quit Ill make you share an office with Gove

😆 kimbers. Chapeau (if that's not too foreign)

I wonder how much of that 10Bn is to the E.U.

Excellent.

Looks like Kimber account has been hijacked but Jambalaya.

Kimbers gets the prize for best post of the day!

The sooner these buggers are floating away in the "B Arc" with the hairdressers and telephone sanitisers the better.

Kimbers wins the internetz this week 😆

Kimbers - brilliant. At least I hope you made it up. I could easily believe that it wax a transcript....

So according to the papers discussed in cabinet leaving the EU will lead to a contraction in the UK economy of 4.5 ie a disastrous recession and to stand still in trade terms we would have to expand our exports to our 10 biggest trading partners outside the EU by 37%

Have you not heard that we have had enough of experts and that everything is going to be fine.
Just eat more biscuits with your British grown tea.

My Dell Rep has just called me, 10%-15% Price rises across the board from next week.

They're supposedly based in Bracknell, but their EU HQ is Ireland and our stuff comes from Poland for the most part. My Rep is based in Malaysia.

I might try bartering them with some Hobnobs - but where to send them?

Pretty much 10% on everything we buy for the shop.
I'm dreading how much our Belgian chocolates will be going up next year.

@kimbers 🙂 "interconnectedness of supply lines" quote is nonsense of course

Is it so that big business can rip up any workers rights they like to maximise their profits?

Big business was mostly pro-EU, low wages caused by freedom of movement outweighs everything else.

@zippy - no particular order, a quick list I am sure there is more. All of these ideal but will take a majority

Balanced and controlled immigration, significant uptick in skilled immigrants ability to identify skills and labour gaps and train our own people
Improved trade links with the dynamic and growing economies to the East
Government spending focused on UK priorities, ability to reduce budget deficit if we choose to.
Zero EU budget contribution
Strengthening of UK banks vs tight controls on sovereign assets and inter bank lending - eg no/very limited Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal ..
Improved tax revenues by stamping out cross border abuse - Apple, Facebook, Google, Starbucks, ... all companies required to book all UK business and advertising via UK subsiduary
Rebuilding of UK fisheries
Support of UK farming and food production
Improved environmental testing of cars with introduction of uk specific tests. Focus on Hybrid technology with research arrangements with Japanese manufacturers - zero tariff deal ?

"interconnectedness of supply lines" quote is nonsense of course

[img] [/img]

you know that saying about koolaid? wow.

what was it about the EU that stopped us, for example, 'training our own people'...?

(hint: the answer is 'nothing at all' - we are crap at skills training now, and there's nothing coming from our glorious leaders that gives me any confidence about the future)

Jamba - no answer to the post I made showing the statement you made about who actually pays into the EU being completely wrong?

Jamba - no answer to the post I made showing the statement you made about who actually pays into the EU being completely wrong?

I wouldn't hold your breath TJ..

Or his thoughts on general election?

I wouldn't hold your breath TJ..

Go on TJ give it a try 😉

TJ you made your point, I am not going to crawl back to the article I read ages ago which showed the cumulative payments / receipts back over 10 years. Yes there have been in more recent times in individual years when countries have made a net contribution but its the cumulative total I was referring to. It's the UK and Germany who pay the bills and fund the rest. We have a big trade deficit and Germany have a big trade surplus, budget contributions make no sense to me.

@cchris - we have discussed a general election at length here. There won't be one. There is no basis for one. The Government cannot call one as we have fixed term parliaments. The opposition cannot force one as the Tories have a majority and the party sees no need for one even consider the likely result would annihilate Labour. Calling for a General Election is clutching at straws from Remainers.

@awhiles - there is no incentive for business to provide training or even identify skills gaps if they have a ready supply of cheap qualified Labour from abroad. There is a tax issue here too, you can hire 3 EU nationals for 4 months each and pay them £10k and UK get's zero tax. This could be a £30k job for a UK citizen.

Go on - admit you were wrong. Payments don't change that much year by year. You really should do some basic fact checking before making outrageous statements that are demonstrably untrue

Per head of population the UK is one of the smaller net contributors.

So we have a TJ versus Jambas competition to see who (if either) are telling the biggest porkies!

Melton Mowbary Porkies mind, none of this foreign muck, opps make that a bridie, opps,....oh forget it

Oh boo hoo.

aracer, i took this as a signal that mature debate had indeed been suspended 😉

Tea and scones anyone? The more we consume, the more this great nations economy marches on to economic nirvana

there is no incentive for business to provide training or even identify skills gaps if they have a ready supply of cheap qualified Labour from abroad. There is a tax issue here too, you can hire 3 EU nationals for 4 months each and pay them £10k and UK get's zero tax. This could be a £30k job for a UK citizen.

And how are these people getting qualified abroad? The training costs for businesses in other EU countries must be astronomical if their qualified staff up sticks and leave for the UK, it seems incredible that businesses could survive under such conditions, it is almost as if it was a ridiculous fallacy.

zippykona - Member
Chewk and or Jamba..what do you personally expect to get from Brexit? Will you know when you finally have it?

Happiness, joy and good tidings for all to see off the mega bureaucrats that have been trying it on since 1973.

If it's not having laws from Brussels can you tell me how they differ from laws from Westminster.

We are all feeling the negative aspects of voting out when will the positives begin?

You have to remember many who voted out had to endure for 43 years and for some who were older until the end of the life. Now, they can be happy again.

Could you also please let me know when the positives start.

Methinks the story has been rather overblown - as usual the text bears little relation to the headline. But bravo kimbers nonetheless - good lunchtime reading!

The positives start the moment you let go. Let go of the hate. Let it be and move on.

🙄

The way you bang on you sound like you're part of a cult....

Do you ever consider that adopting this particular style may well be working against you??

Big business was mostly pro-EU, low wages caused by freedom of movement outweighs everything else.

No it doesn't. There is no evidence that FoM has a signifanct impact on wages. It doesn't matter how many times this lie is repeated, it won't become true.

Lets see what the CBI inks about the best approach to trade deals

http://www.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/uk-and-the-european-union/eu-business-facts/10-facts-about-eu-trade-deals-pdf/

mrlebowski - Member

The positives start the moment you let go. Let go of the hate. Let it be and move on.

The way you bang on you sound like you're part of a cult....

Do you ever consider that adopting this particular style may well be working against you??

The longer he hangs on to that feeling the more it will consume him from within, it's better to let it go and start new like everyone else.

Happiness, joy and good tidings for all to see off the mega bureaucrats that have been trying it on since 1973.

Fortunately there are no petty/mega bureaucrats in the UK, or any of the shiny new countries who will be our sole trading partners. No sir!

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/

Supply chain reality (I use to work in the aluminium industry).

Jamaica - mine bauxite
Ship - to Eire
Eire - turn bauxite into alumina
Ship - to Blyth, UK
Train - to Lynemouth Smelter, Tyne&Wear
Lynemouth - turn alumina into aluminium 20t slabs
Train - to Rogerstone Rolling Mill, South Wales
Rogerstone - roll down into coiled sheet
Lorry - to Newport docks
Ship - to Rotterdam, NL
Barge - to Dortmund, D
Train - to Ludenscheid, D
Ludenscheid - roll down further
Train - to Rorschach, CH
Rorschach - roll down further and cut into sheet
Train - to Ludenscheid, D
Ludenscheid - embossed and printed, then pressed out and formed

And the product? Dog/Cat food tins, expensive brand.

oldnpastit - Member

Happiness, joy and good tidings for all to see off the mega bureaucrats that have been trying it on since 1973.

Fortunately there are no petty/mega bureaucrats in the UK, or any of the shiny new countries who will be our sole trading partners. No sir!

gummikuh - Member
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/

A very informative if depressing read 🙁

Have more tea.

The thing that PA graphic above doesn't show is [i]why[/i]the component is exported to Germany for heat treatment.

To draw any meaningful conclusion we'd need to know if Delphi export to Germany then re-import because there's no capability in the UK to get it done here, to help with overhead recoveries at a Delphi plant in Germany, to book profit on the German P&L after most of the value has been added / to avoid doing that in the UK. Etc etc.

The PA analysis also misses that UK sourced steel is now / or shortly will be cheaper than imported steel so the sourcing decision on raw materials and the answers to "why" may significantly change the conclusion we reach. It's also worth saying there's a good chance Delphi's supply chains aren't optimised if most of the end product is made in the UK but they are mucking about with 1000 mile freight movements on work in progress.

just5minutes - Member

The thing that PA graphic above doesn't show is whythe component is exported to Germany for heat treatment.

because maybe the heat-treatment of fuel-injectors is a specialised business?

Chewk .List me a physical thing.
The physical thing for me is seeing if we can absorb all the price increases in my shop.
If the prices were going down I might say you've got a point.
You don't.

No it doesn't. There is no evidence that FoM has a signifanct impact on wages. It doesn't matter how many times this lie is repeated, it won't become true

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37577620

Bbc news article states that freedom.of movement does negatively affect wages.

because maybe the heat-treatment of fuel-injectors is a specialised business?

We make 1.6m+ vehicles a year in the UK. Presumably that's enough volume to warrant heat treating here or building the capability to do so rather than trucking up to 1m+ components to Germany and back? Given the UK's leading position in high strength / fatigue resistant alloys and steels with the likes of Rolls Royce it's unlikely to just be a skills issue.

No it doesn't. There is no evidence that FoM has a signifanct impact on wages. It doesn't matter how many times this lie is repeated, it won't become true

> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37577620

Bbc news article states that freedom.of movement does negatively affect wages.

It says that wages may be suppressed by 1.88% for every 10% increase in immigrant labour into a sector. Immigrant labout has gone up 7.2% in 19 years. So it seems the effect of migrant labour is minimal at most but may vary from sector to sector with unskilled jobs being worst hit. And I thinkit is talking about all migrant labour not just EU labour.

Crtically it also says:

The impact of immigration is dwarfed by the effect of the strength of the economy and its growth.

So reading between the lines chucking out immigrants and having the economy tank is going to do more to damage wages than letting non-UK nationals stay.

plenty more detail here

https://www.ft.com/content/c397f174-9205-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

Two-thirds of the £4bn of motor components that are exported from the UK go to the EU, while the vast majority of materials that go into British-built cars are imported.

If we faced tariffs, we would need to make the supply chain shorter and more integrated, or would need to take the assembly out of the UK
Supplier
Consultancy Vendigital estimates that, of the £15bn-worth of materials used in UK cars, some £12bn comes from overseas.

Several of the component companies said that they were unable to relocate full production to the UK because there was not enough scale to make them economically viable.

just5minutes - Member

We make 1.6m+ vehicles a year in the UK. Presumably that's enough volume to warrant heat treating here or building the capability to do so rather than trucking up to 1m+ components to Germany and back? Given the UK's leading position in high strength / fatigue resistant alloys and steels with the likes of Rolls Royce it's unlikely to just be a skills issue.

it's an example, presented to explain that the movement of goods is sometimes complicated.

if you start critiquing the example, you've missed the point...

On chewkw's bureaucrats, I bet we add more at Westminster than our share of the EU ones was.

Shackleton - nail, head.

A lot of those Brexiters who voted to quit Europe because they felt badly done to are about to find out what badly done to really means. Sad really.

If we do not [b]put a nail to their EU heads[/b] now we would have bigger disasters to come.

EDIT: removed my response, as this speaks for itself really.

zippykona - Member
Chewk .List me a physical thing.
The physical thing for me is seeing if we can absorb all the price increases in my shop.
If the prices were going down I might say you've got a point.
You don't.

After 43 years inside EU even the light at the tunnel means nothing because we are so accustom to darkness we think it is a the norm.

You are asking for comparison that is not even comparable because there is none after 43 years in EU. Give it 10 years before you start making comparison will you. Give it time just like you have been given 43 years previously.

We are setting the precedent now as we progress so by trying to compare to the past 43 years is illogical.

igm - Member
Shackleton - nail, head.

A lot of those Brexiters who voted to quit Europe because they felt badly done to are about to find out what badly done to really means. Sad really.

[i]A very informative if depressing read [/i]

Agreed, and that is BEFORE you even consider any Brexit impact (positive or negative).

gummikuh - Member
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/

Yes, but no but.... It is all the fault of the EU, because the newspapers and governments have always blamed them (and it must be accepted at face value).

Due to the [b]overwhelming[/b]ly small majority of the learned electorate voting to leave the EU based upon sound political, social and economic thinking, we [b]must[/b] now cast off the, er, shackles (and large benefits), of our EU masters, er, comrades (in a right wing kind of way) and get behind our glorious, working-class warrior EU leave-favouring (rather than the majority of MPs and educated people who would prefer to remain) Tory leaders.