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Doesn’t look like the hive mind of STW have any solutions either….we is truly f….d!
I propose to have the softest Brexit possible: membership of the customs union and (possibly) the single market, with all that entails, including freedom of movement.
Then a commitment to a referendum in the next parliament on whether we leave this setup, maintain it or apply to rejoin as a full member.
Something along these lines is what Labour should be campaigning for: it delivers a Brexit of some sort, a second referendum later and allows us to fully explore and prepare for a full exit.
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I have access. Posting links to pay walled pages doesn't go down well.
The referendum was a revolt against the political class
So we "take back control" and put it in THEIR hands? Brilliant strategy there.
Solutions have been posted for hundreds of pages. They just don’t fit it with the world view of those leading our two biggest parties, that is all.
They're not solutions - they're the opinions of a forum without the constraints of damaging the electorate one way or another.
I posted a couple of days ago...
What is everyone’s preferred way forward then?
Igoring issued of actual acheivability for the momemt, I see several broad options
(1) Abandon Bexit – withdraw A50 – back as we were?
(2) 2nd ref with two (in or a deal variant) or 3 options (in, deal, no deal) and some sort of preference voting
(3) supersoft brexit – customs union, possible EEA and free movement (Norway plus plus)
(4). Medium brexit – basically tweaked May’s deal or similar
(5) No deal
I most like 1 but it's politically impossible. I think 2 although initially attractive would still lead to Bexit, possibly no deal Brexit and would be divisive in the country. So basically we are left with 3 as least worst.
they’re the opinions of a forum without the constraints of damaging the electorate one way or another.
Oh, you mean solutions that can be accepted by self serving politicans and don't ignore the fact that more than half the country don't want the disturbance of a hard Brexit to hit in March?
I'm going to rank those repeated above by @olddog … 1,3,2,5,4 … personal preference only … but still think there is a better way…
…revoke A50 immediately, plan to leave without a transition, put that plan to the public in a referendum, then trigger A50 again if plan accepted, but only once the planning shows that there's less than two years left in the preparations to Leave.
Or there is @nerd's "Soft Brexit for now" on the previous page. Lots of ways out of the current mess… but May & Corbyn are two busy pretending to be iron ladies.
So we “take back control” and put it in THEIR hands? Brilliant strategy there.
not sure working class revolts tend to have a strategy
Corbyn not talking to May is frustrating- not because it would do any good in good in moving her position but because the focus is on his inflexibility not hers.
It could easily have been him looking the peacemaker on TV this morning saying - he spoke to her, made the case for no no-deal "which everyone wants" and she is not moving her position.
Political naivety
Soft Bexit for now is an interesting option, that might actually give May the backdoor she needs to save face. This could be with or without a future second ref.
What is the penalties of breaking the good Friday agreement under a hard Brexit?
I know the consequence of breaking it - a potential rise up of the Irish troubles, but I'm struggling to get my head around the breaking of an international treaty bit.
Would it just be a subtle hardening of resolve against the UK (ideal when you're trying to negotiate trade deals) Or would it be a bit firmer than that? ie political or economic sanctions?
If the DUP didn't have the government by the balls, I reckon Westminster would've thrown the GFA under the bus a year ago.
Corbyn not talking to May is frustrating- not because it would do any good in good in moving her position but because the focus is on his inflexibility not hers.
Agree. I am with Corbyn on what he stands for and the policies he has brought back to the Labour party but he is very bad at predicting consequences of actions, how they could be spun etc,. As soon as May invited him to talk he should have bitten her hand off publicly, while still making sure the rule out No Deal point was strongly made.
Have the meeting with her that night and then do a media onslaught on what you have talked about, asked for etc,. and it is then 100% back with May.
If the DUP didn’t have the government by the balls, I reckon Westminster would’ve thrown the GFA under the bus a year ago.
I've little respect for our current government but I'm fairly confident of their ability to be self serving and ditching the GFA wouldn't be anything like. Many of them will have been or will have friends who were at Brighton and will remember well enough what "the troubles" really looked like rather than just on TV.
I honestly don't think the GFA is under threat from our side of this, and at the risk of parroting, who is actually going to put a hard (or any other sort) of border in place, I honestly can't see it being Westminster, if only for the simple reason we've got no money and will have even less come April.
What is the penalties of breaking the good Friday agreement under a hard Brexit?
The betrayal of a generation or more of people who suffered with terrorism and violence for decades. wholly appropriate International rebuke from the very people we would seek to make trade deals with in our future. Mistrust, and a blow to our diplomatic standing for at least 50 years or more?
Off the top of my head...
who is actually going to put a hard (or any other sort) of border in place, I honestly can’t see it being Westminster, if only for the simple reason we’ve got no money and will have even less come April.
The trouble is, under WTO rules we must treat all trading partners fairly. While the UK and the EU will have no appetite to enforce a hard border, not doing so just allows any other nation to play havoc with our and the EU's international trade by making complaints.
And lets be honest, it will take less than a second for Russia to object and have both the UK's and EU's WTO schedules rejected.
And even if it isn't Russia, our so called friends from the US, Australia, Canada, India etc will at least use it as leverage to pick over the carcass of the UK economy.
Once the disruption in the EU/EEA has played out, those that will be will benefiting from it will be targeting the WTO and UN in the same way, for the same reasons, with the same effect. Get ready for that.
Why do we need the WTO I thought WE were making the rules now.
I most like 1 but it’s politically impossible.
I'm not so sure. I think (hope!) that if someone tabled a motion to revoke A50, versus the options of May's deal or No deal, the house would pass it. It would require Labour & Tory MPs to not be whipped, and a combination of "respect my constituents" plus "May ruined your dream" rhetoric, but I reckon there could be a majority in the HoC.
The ramifications would not be great in terms of confidence in the government (and potential resurgence in the right, inc UKIP), but at this point I think that's arguably better than a No-deal exit.
(and potential resurgence in the right, inc UKIP)
This will happen if we have "not real Brexit" as well… never forget that.
On a sort of aside i do think the free movement of people thing is a huge red herring. It's very useful for those of us on the remain side to think that everyone in the leave camp is a racist (some, especially the very vocal, are of course but far from all).
If you look at where the main leave votes were these aren't areas with huge problems with immigration, quite the opposite, they're areas where people migrate from if they can, no-one moves there becuase there's no work. Those who do manage to escape to uni and the like never come back because to somewhere that the local chippy is considered a career prospect. They're areas where the industry has been gutted and moved wholesale to Europe/RoW because free movement of goods, no tarrifs and no duties has made it cheaper to produce and import steel from Ruhr than Sheffield or coal in Czech Republic than co. Durham and so on. There's a reason Wales voted out and it's not becuase they don't like brown people, it's becuase despite stuffing loads of money into BPW (an expensive playground for middle-class w****s riding bikes that cost as much as a few years mortgage on a house in Merthyr did 10 years ago) there's nothing left off what it was outside of a few big cities. M62 corridor is the same, Notts, Derbyshire, North Hants, Essex and so on.
Getting rid of free moment of (unskilled) people doesn't fix this. To the extent there's resentment of foreigners (and it's really just out of towers in general in my experience) it's that when good jobs do rarely come up local folk can't get them because there's no real training opportunity for advancement, no real chance of proper further or higher education because they simply can't afford to be there, (Tuition fees are really an irrelevance on that front when you can't muster the basic travel or living costs any how.) so those jobs go to outsiders and the cycle continues.
There's a lot of people who i think really see all these problems as opportunities, if you can't bring in steel cheaply anymore, maybe they'll restart the plant in redcarr and so on.
The trouble is, under WTO rules we must treat all trading partners fairly. While the UK and the EU will have no appetite to enforce a hard border, not doing so just allows any other nation to play havoc with our and the EU’s international trade by making complaints.
entirely true but I'm really sure how you would form a complaint that our WTO schedule is unfair when it's probably equal between say Russia and Europe where in goods are moved via Dublin Liverpool or in deed Dublin Belfast but, due to previously agreed international treaty (which i believe takes legal precedence) the Dublin Belfast route has to be done on trust. I will say though this is way way out of my area of expertise (so i guess i could be a UK brexit negotiator then?)
The ramifications would not be great in terms of confidence in the government (and potential resurgence in the right, inc UKIP), but at this point I think that’s arguably better than a No-deal exit.
Be careful what you wish for, i think you'd more likely be seeing [s]Peter from family guy[/s] Nick Griffin waddling back on stage to rapturous applause than Nige
On a sort of aside i do think the free movement of people thing is a huge red herring.
Yes. But you need to persuade May & Corbyn of this. They both claim that the ending of "Freedom of Movement" is the will of the people, as expressed in 2016. All the Leave voters I know say otherwise, but our leaders stick firmly to that line. So tell them. If one, or even better both, of them decide to change their mind on this, everything changes… it's the biggest block to any form of Leaving that keeps the UK in one piece and trade with the rest of Europe "frictionless".
entirely true but I’m really sure how you would form a complaint that our WTO schedule is unfair
It isn't whether the schedule is unfair, it is whether the enforcement or monitoring of the schedule is fair. It goods crossing a border are not monitored, then quite clearly any and all other countries could say, we want the same treatment or you are not meeting your obligations under the agreements you have made.
If... we end up with no deal and walk away, what does that say about our trustworthiness as a country that sticks to it's commitments.
What third countries will trust us to stick to future agreements?
If you look at where the main leave votes were these aren’t areas with huge problems with immigration, quite the opposite, they’re areas where people migrate from if they can, no-one moves there becuase there’s no work. Those who do manage to escape to uni and the like never come back
Bigotry is a part of this though. No-one resents white British people moving around the country, as you mention, however if these people have a funny accent or a different skin colour, then suddenly they are easy to label as 'other'.
I used to work in London. But I'm not from London. Do you think anyone would have resented me doing that?
Ok, this may well not be representative.... but every person I know that voted Leave primarily did it offer immigration. Some VERY vocal over why, some more a nudge and a wink.
It's a big "issue" in some peoples minds around here anyway. Which I'm actually very sad about as it has changed my mind about quite a few people I thought I knew pretty well.
Bigotry is a part of this though. No-one resents white British people moving around the country...
This really really isn't true. A lot of places don't like a funny accent, whether that's from bognor or Bangladesh. I'm about as British looking as you could want to be and my "Southern" accent (despite being Yorkshire born n bred) got me a lot of not welcome here's when I lived in Hull. Still does in plenty of places.
I used to work in London. But I’m not from London. Do you think anyone would have resented me doing that?
In London? No very few would mind but for the most part they'd not really care if your accent and skin colour was more Mumbai than Munro either. On the other hand try Rotherham or Rochdale, Margate or Morecambe and see how keen they are on you not being local. Heck want proof it's not about being an immigrant go to some parts of Bradford.
There are a lot of places still that make Royston Vasey look welcoming of outsiders.
It’s a big “issue” in some peoples minds around here anyway
Mind if i ask in broad terms where that is? Leaver constituency or remainer?
(Fwiw, in my experience the actual racism amongst leavers, obvious edl supporting outliers etc aside, seems to be directly proportional to peoples standard of living and education which is truly depressing.)
What dangeourbrain said, it's not about being foreign, it's about being different from what ever "local" is, in any way.
It's hard to do that in London, as it's a proper big-city melting pot. Unless you got to one of the proper sink estates, then see how quickly you get singled out for being "different"...and not on the grounds of your skin colour or accent.
Bigotry is a part of this though. No-one resents white British people moving around the country, as you mention, however if these people have a funny accent or a different skin colour, then suddenly they are easy to label as ‘other’.
I used to work in London. But I’m not from London. Do you think anyone would have resented me doing that?
Not true. I moved post-uni to the south coast from Scotland. Moved into a house with a 1 person from Cardiff and another from Edinburgh. We all had very good graduate levels jobs. First thing our manky neighbour said to me was a rant about "...coming down 'ere and taking our jobs".
We all had very good graduate levels jobs. First thing our manky neighbour said to me was a rant about “…coming down ‘ere and taking our jobs”.
I do wonder if the response would be the same if you'd moved to be a checkout assistant in Tesco. I've genuinely no idea but my perception is that it's not "all our jobs" so much as "all our good jobs"
Quick question if I can. Some of you talk of areas with people out of work.
Looking at the employment figures, how is that possible?
And on the subject of immigration.
I was an immigrant in the UK for 20 years, but was very rarely treated as such. Maybe because I am white and could speak English well.
Looking at the employment figures, how is that possible?
It was said a few years ago that that the unemployment figures were so low that they were in danger of exposing the lie.
If the DUP didn’t have the government by the balls, I reckon Westminster would’ve thrown the GFA DUP under the bus a year ago.
FTFY
Looking at the employment figures, how is that possible?
There are reasons various governments over the years have pushed more and more into longer optional and now compulsory education. That they count zero hours contracts (even if you're doing zero) as work.
Add to that areas with high employment vs low and it's suddenly quite easy to see how it looks like a low unemployment (4%, 1.4 million) figure when what it really means is 3 cities the size of Edinburgh officially out of work.
No idea on the validity of the following link but their data suggests 32.5 million in employment of some sort, 24 million in ft employment. That's a huge % that don't qualify as full time (roughly 25% of those in work don't have full time jobs)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/full-time-employment
From ONS website - you count as employed doing one hour per week...
The number of people in employment in the UK is measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and consists of people aged 16 and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week (as an employee or self-employed), those who had a job that they were temporarily away from, those on government-supported training and employment programmes, and those doing unpaid family work. Employment levels and rates are published each month in the labour market statistical bulletin.
So doing a few hours of insecure work on a zero hours contract counts as employed.
Interesting that none of the polling organisation are doing nationwide polls on what people would vote if we had a second referendum based on TM's deal. Maybe they have given up, seeing as before the last vote they were suggesting 51-49 in favour of remain!
Interesting that none of the polling organisation are doing nationwide polls on what people would vote if we had a second referendum
Maybe they just can't find any pollsters who can keep a straight face as they layout the options?
This really really isn’t true. A lot of places don’t like a funny accent, whether that’s from bognor or Bangladesh. I’m about as British looking as you could want to be and my “Southern” accent (despite being Yorkshire born n bred) got me a lot of not welcome here’s when I lived in Hull. Still does in plenty of places.
Honestly it does make a huge difference, my ex was Aussie, wandered around and worked all over the UK with no issues or hassles from people no real attitude, I was an immigrant in Oz never had a single problem, I knew people who had been there for 30+ years but looked differently who were treated differently all the time. I remember been sat in a pub while somebody ranted on about immigration and immigrants obviously thinking he was fine being surrounded by white folks, who at the time were about 70% from another country.
Actually just heard that a YouGov poll was released yesterday with 56% wanting to remain. Clearly you can take that with a pinch of salt, as a lot won't admit to voting leave at the moment.
The YouGov survey found that when excluding those who said they do not know or would not vote, 56 percent said they would choose to remain in the bloc if there was a new referendum, while 44 percent would choose to leave — a margin of 12 percentage points.
When including the responses of those who said they don't know or wouldn't vote, these figures dropped to 48 percent for Remain and 38 percent for Leave.
The poll was conducted a day after Theresa May's Brexit deal was rejected by MPs on Tuesday, and was commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, which advocates for a second referendum.
Based on what we know, who commission the poll and past results, that probably makes it more like 53/47....still a bit close to call.
The U.K. government unemployment figures are the greatest work of fiction since Shakespeare.
Along with Universal Credit, that ridiculous method of calculating them was another gift from Iain Duncan Smith
I hope all the workers at Airbus, Ford and Jaguar Land Rover are looking forward to all that fresh air they’ll be getting in their new fruit picking jobs
^^sorry that does rather read as though I'm suggesting racism "isn't real" which is really not what I'm trying to say. I don't doubt that people or treated differently based on race but i also think that's much more evident in places like London for arguments sake where the norm is acceptance.
There's a difference between how people are treated based on how other they are but that defenition doesn't start at Dover.
that ridiculous method of calculating them was another gift from Iain Duncan Smith
yet is peculiarly the same as most other countries in Europe. It's not a Tory ploy or an IDS legacy it's been manipulated for decades by every government under the sun that bothers to pretend to care
Anyone just listened to the Jeremy Vine show. Anyone would think the BBC were under orders to soften up the populace for a revoking of Article 50 🙂
I haven't heard anything about "bad news" being slipped out today under cover of the rolling 24 hour news coverage of the Duke rolling his car. They can't have asked him to do it for nothing.