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I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not. Does anyone know? 3 months in, is there any sign of a decision on this?
Jamba - bit of basic maths for you. 100% subtract 44% does not make 66%.
You are a full 10% out, the values are 56% row and 44% eu
Oops, excuse me!
Oh they have lots of plans and decisions - honest they do - but they can't tell us what they are because it would ruin negotiations y'see.
So over the next few years we need to blindly trust our politicians to secretly make lots of decisions and plans that have the potential for a massive impact on our future, with no public oversight.
Because democracy!
I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not.
the problem is most of the cabinet want to remain part of the single market but the EU would want to keep the free movement goods, services and labour as part of the deal and some cash.... which is going to look awfully like we never left come election time.
@kimbers so I said 70% and you (fullfact) say 66% - was that really worth the post with charts ?
70 vs 56 is worth mentioning as graham notes 😳
I think a large part of the services number is a result of the Rotterdamn effecf, ie intrnational business booked through an EU center like Dublin, this is easy to move and not really related to the EU. Certainly the case with one of my employers.
70 vs 56 is worth mentioning as graham notes 😳
That's the closest I've ever seen you come to admitting you might have got something wrong.
Well done. I think we're making some real progress here. 😉
FT running article today on the turf war over Brexit within the government.
Dave was right on one thing - self-inflicted harm
I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not.
My 2 cents (not my preferences but my view of Govt position)
Yup we would like to stay in the single market if we have no freedom of movement, no budget contribution and no supremacy of ECJ
If we have to take a limited number of EU migrants but can place restrictions on in work benefits that could still work
What I think the most likley outcome is we do not sign up for access to single market (this saves face for the EU) but we agree a more limited trade deal focusing on a few key mutual sectors with no freedom of movement, no budget contributions and no ECJ
If EU won't agree to that we'll go WTO tariffs.
There is not one either theoretically or practically - unless either the EU or we back down on free movement and I cannot see thatlook at the actual practicalities of how to actually get out without seriously impacting the country (for a generation at least
Possibly a free movement for x years and slow Brexit to allow all to adapt.
What I think the most likley outcome is we do not sign up for access to single market (this saves face for the EU) but we agree a more limited trade deal focusing on a few key mutual sectors with no freedom of movement, no budget contributions and no ECJ
Only a few thick racists really want that though so it's probably not going to happen.
Oh I know what the problem is. And there is only one sensible solution, which is to ignore the referendum result.
Most brexiters think we've already left, so perhaps we should just let them carry on believing that, and do nothing.
Interesting interview with Boris in NY on Brexit. He suggested A50 couod be fast-tracked and be completed faster than 2 years amd the deal would be customised for UK/EU. He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered. Boris also pointed out that the US exported more to Europe and those exports grew faster from mid 1990's to today than we did, membership of the EU is not essential for trade.
Please list those key campaign promises.
He made clear .....
....was that with a straight face?
Clarity and Bojo are uncomfortable bedfellows
Boris might possibly be more clueless than you, so I'll not hold my breath.
Interesting interview with Boris in NY on Brexit
Linky?
He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered.
All of them?
[img] 
[/img]
Just listened to Lloyds Insurance Chairman. Re-iterated Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.
@Graham Live interview on Sky News, maybe a link on their website/Apple TV or up on YouTube later probably
I think he was key to Leave winning
Tell me again, what have Leave actually won?
ted Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.
Unsurprisingly the CEO of Lloyd's has a very different conclusion describing the folly as "a major issue for us to deal with" and indicating that it could move operations out of the U.K.
No great change there then..... 😯
Re-iterated Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.
That was the story I was commenting on earlier. They said they weren't yet sure whether they'd establish one subsidiary or go further and open branches in all 27 EU countries.
What was clear was that they expected some Lloyds jobs to move from London to the EU and that they expected the "huge workforce" of London's insurance brokers would be making similar plans.
Live interview on Sky News
Thanks, will look for that. Sounds [i]interesting[/i].
He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered.
The problem is, everyone has a different idea of which promises were "key", and they were contradictory.
Some don't even seem to know what amounts to a 'promise'
Or care when making them - talk is cheap
Well, you could argue that it was all 'suggestions', some of which were known to be impossible, especially when taken together, rather than 'promises', in which case, there were no actual promises, so nothing needs to be done, or alternatively anything can be done.
WTO
[i]Then there are the problems for trade. The idea that we can do without a trade agreement is based on the theory that tariffs are no big deal and the EU won’t put up barriers to trade because it would be an act of self-harm. The truth is more complex. The World Trade Organisation prevents countries discriminating between their trading partners. If you raise or lower tariffs for one nation you must do so for all WTO members. This is the principle of “most favoured nation” treatment. Thus, when imposing tariffs on the UK, the EU would not be acting out of spite but merely following the rules of the WTO trading system. This is why we need a trade agreement.
Moreover, if the UK opted to impose retaliatory tariffs on imports from the EU, WTO anti-discrimination rules would require us to impose the same tariffs on all of our trading partners (excluding any with which we have negotiated a preferential trade agreement). Should we choose to remove tariffs from EU products altogether, we would have to do the same for all WTO members; thereby destroying our manufacturing base and agricultural industry (the harsh reality of “unilateral free trade”).[/i]
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/15/crashing-out-of-the-eu-without-a-trade-agreement-would-be-an-act/ ]Great idea[/url]
ninfan - Member
Some don't even seem to know what amounts to a 'promise'
Best line of the thread. Plus one, ninfan, plus one.
I certainly have no idea what the quit faction promised, because every time I see something that looks like a promise, they seem to come along and deny it was a promise.
Perhaps something about kicking foreigners out? I'm not sure.
TMH I saw the Lloyds CEO interview on Sky, he said it would be easy to move the business - a handful of brokers move/none ? The fronting part is trivial and will be back-to-backed with London market anyway. As he said 96% of their business in NOT with the EU
The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc. The whole EU striaght jacket is designed to crush the life out of its members, of course they want people to think there is no alternative.
The US does huge amounts of trade with the EU without any special deal, whilst a deal is desirable provided it comes with no strings like freedom of movement or budget payments if there is no deal then so be it. Perhaps that what Boris meant when he said A50 may take less than 2 years, EU won't agree a deal without freedom/budget so we pull the plug early and save £1bn a month ?
@ign Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so "kicking out foreigners" was not on the list.
If EU won't agree to that we'll go WTO tariffs.
Of course we will have to re-join the WTO as independent members, which would be a long and torturous process, just look at how long it took Russia and China to join, and we will really have to hope that other independent members in the WTO don't have an axe to grind with us, I can think of a few.
And that's just for starters. As I have said, the World is unionised.
The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc.
We haven't left the EU.
TMH I saw the Lloyds CEO interview on Sky, he said it would be easy to move the business
Given that the CEO of Lloyds is a woman, I find that hard to believe....
😆
Given that the CEO of Lloyds is a woman, I find that hard to believe....
You are quite right of course, it was the Chairman not the CEO my mistake
The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc. The whole EU straight jacket is designed to crush the life out of its members, of course they want people to think there is no alternative.
No Brexitmaggedon in our time - don't worry it'll all be over by Christmas.
[url= https://c2.staticflickr.com/9/8370/29863284345_6a2f90152a_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://c2.staticflickr.com/9/8370/29863284345_6a2f90152a_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/MuV91R ]No Brexit meltdown in our time..[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/82598458@N05/ ]jamesanderson2010[/url], on Flickr
El-bent WTO we are hardly China or Russia are we. We already comply with all the requireme ts and we only gave up our membership as the EU rules forbade it
The doom amd gloom predictions where to kick-in immediately
The funny thing Nipper is I used that same photo in relation to Cameron's renegotiation, even quoted from Elvis Costello's Peace in our Time.
Full interview inc Syria
[url= http://news.sky.com/video/boris-johnson-the-full-interview-10588908 ]Captain Brexit[/url]
jambalaya - Member
Interesting interview with Boris in NY on Brexit. He suggested A50 couod be fast-tracked and be completed faster than 2 years amd the deal would be customised for UK/EU. He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered.
Now correct me if I'm wrong but have you not just spent the last 10 pages or more telling us that they were not in fact promises more just aspirational wafts of thought bubbles?
If the process tells us anything I'd have to go with
Want to make promises - write them all down and say these are the promises.
Only people who can actualy make/deliver them should be making them
Any not in full possesion of the facts should probably avoid making promises.
How can the article 50 deal not be customised for the UK/EU? It's the deal between the UK and the EU to leave the EU and the terms of the divorce. I assume he is trying to play to the uninformed (spot a theme here) the 2 ways article 50 can be completed is when both sides agree or 2 years end. If we end early then one side got screwed and we are in the weaker position.
So an early end probably means all the same terms as being in the UK but paying for the privilige with no say in decision making.
The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc.
I see you have a new name calling going on...
I assume that if any of these things happen it will be for the greater good/outside factors/much better than if we had stayed.
@ign Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so "kicking out foreigners" was not on the list.
I was right. I can't identify a single promise Leave made. At least not one they'll stand by.
(PS you are right about EU style foreigners, but I think that was leavers in government who made that "promise" after the vote and were instantly told off by other members of the government who said they couldn't promise that. Plenty of people though they had promised to kick foreigners out - and they weren't particularly thinking of EU style foreigners.)
It's also worth noting the 2018 data protection legislation that we've signed up to will make it hard for an EU based business to have EU data stored/processed outside the EU. This could make the likes of Lloyds have more than a few 'traders' located in an EU country, needing vast parts of their back office as well.
And I made the point about getting over the vote from a remain perspective. As in, you won so now sort it and don't come back until you've got what you promised.
Jambalaya, please list those key campaign promises that Boris promised would be delivered.
Oh, Mayhem has slapped him down again saying it's nothing to do with him, and she alone will decide what brexit means brexit means brexit means.
Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so "kicking out foreigners" was not on the list.
Did they? Was that a "promise"?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/702269/Theresa-May-European-Union-migration-Brexit
http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/73161/what-will-happen-to-eu-nationals-in-the-uk-after-brexit
Every time Boris opens his blustering, self-serving pie hole on Brexit, he gets shut down by Number 10.
So we will have to wait for Theresa 'Unable to delegate or communicate' May to tell us what is happening.
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/ ]she slapped Davis down too [/url]
good!
I rarely agree with Davis's views but I have more time for him than Boris.
Overall though it does seem we have politicians skilled in bluster, spin and leaks, but less good at negotiation, deal-making and diplomacy.
Ah well, every day's a school day, now's their chance to learn to keep their traps shut.
Waiting for Jambalaya to remind us that the Leave campaign isn't a political party, so they can promise what they want and don't have to stick by it.
No need cchris you did it for me ! Things are becoming clearer - my interpretation A50 early next year and a potentially accelerated timetime if EU won't negotiate sensibly thus saving us 12-18 months of contributions or £10-15 billion. Our "free-market" access just isn't worth that much.
Cheer up Remainers 🙂 Hannah is spot on in his remark that some in the Remain camp are so wedded to their views they can only interpret any negative news as Brexit related.
Sorry to repost but...
How can the article 50 deal not be customised for the UK/EU? It's the deal between the UK and the EU to leave the EU and the terms of the divorce. I assume he is trying to play to the uninformed (spot a theme here) the 2 ways article 50 can be completed is when both sides agree or 2 years end. If we end early then one side got screwed and we are in the weaker position.
So an early end probably means all the same terms as being in the UK but paying for the privilige with no say in decision making.
How the f does that work?
Yup here's the remoaning Express, whining on about the negative effects of Brexit
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/712859/Brexit-Job-Losses-Social-Care-UK
At least Hannan has found his way out of the hole he fell into on newsnight when he reneged on the 350m for the NHS and reducing immigration, right after the vote
So when will we trigger A50?
Personal reasons, planning a trip to either the USA or europe in early Feb and if we do trigger I suspect the pound will take a nosedive again!
Gamble to wait until then and buy currency?
Mike IMO an early end to the A50 process is we just accelerate with no trade deal agreed but we save the £10bn a year. It's in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we'll be contributing zero. Remember there was the discussion that we could just repeal the legislation that took us into the EEC/EU and we'd be out immediately. There is a Tory group now actively campaigning for A50 with accelerated timetable and no trade deal as that gurantees no freedom of movement and no budget contribution, ie no fudges
@Kimbers the Referendum result was a surprise so £ tumbled, A50 in Jan/Feb is expected so much less likely to impact £. If you want to play it safe then transfer half now.
What we should do is phone up the EU customer service line and tell them we are cancelling, because £10 billion is a bit steep, and we don't really want the immigrant bit anyway. Then the day before the notice period is up, the retentions department will phone us with a better deal.
🙄
Why are they asking us to get on with it then as its in their interests we never trigger it?It's in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we'll be contributing zero.
@Kimbers the Referendum result was a surprise so £ tumbled, A50 in Jan/Feb is expected so much less likely to impact £. If you want to play it safe then transfer half now.
A few weeks back you said £ was recovering. I note it's now lower than immediately after the result. Who knows where it'll go. When is the BoE planning to inject another round of QE to prop up the economy? Immediately after that would be a sensible choice 🙂
jambalaya - Member
Mike IMO an early end to the A50 process is we just accelerate with no trade deal agreed but we save the £10bn a year.
Brilliant, how much will it cost the UK to save £10bn... I'm sure that will result in way more than that being ripped from the value of the FTSE/£ and british companies.
There is a Tory group now actively campaigning for A50 with accelerated timetable and no trade deal as that gurantees no freedom of movement and no budget contribution, ie no fudges
So basically removing your right to live in France, stranding 1000's of people in spain, crashing that property market again. Writing off UK exports to the EU overnight and all that.
Always beware of ideological idiots who want something so badly they ignore the impact.
jambalaya - MemberIt's in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we'll be contributing zero.
Or we might be contributing a whole lot more in order to get access to the single market. Or paying an equivalent amount (or more) in tariffs.
"Massively" is a bit of an exaggeration as well. £10bn a year is really not very much money. About half the price of LinkedIn, or Hinkley Point, for example.
EDIT: forgot, it's actually not £10bn, but only £8.5bn.
£10bn a year is really not very much money.
😯
Equivalent to about 2.5p on income tax.
And obviously any money invested in the EU yields dividends by helping wealth creation there, increasing markets for our exports. It's a win win.
ninfan - Member
Equivalent to about 2.5p on income tax.
But only relevant if it's a true cost, after rebate there is the money paid to the UK, farmers, projects etc. (all of which somebody promised to carry on funding) then there is the negative of lost trade or tariffs, the cost of enforcing them, the cost of repealing and re writing legislations, the lost tax income from business who decide that the UK is not somewhere to be doing business (banks for instance) along with the income tax from those nice immigrants who turn out to be net contributors to the economy.
If only it was as easy as a slogan, in fact why would people try pushing figures like that around when they know it's not an accurate way of representing the situation???
If only it was as easy as a slogan, in fact why would people try pushing figures like that around when they know it's not an accurate way of representing the situation???
You mean like how every household would be £4,300 a year worse off after Brexit?
Or are we back into that 'only Brexit campaign lies matter' trap?
At this point we are into the impact an Brexit, dealing with what is going to happen. Much as it would be lovely to live in your binary world ninfan they current issue kind of surrounds things like exiting. I guess we will find out if households are worse off, Jamby's plan to shove 2 fingers to the EU and leave would probably make that an underestimate.
We could go back and analyse that figure if you want but nobody is bringing it to the table at the moment. The Save 10bn was chucked in there as if magically we could add 10bn to the Uk economy and do what we wanted with it. That is not the case.
You mean like how every household would be £4,300 a year worse off after Brexit?Or are we back into that 'only Brexit campaign lies matter' trap?
So in your world that forecast was meant to occur immediately after the referendum? Is that what they said? Obviously the Brexit lies that annoy people would be the ones that they denied immediately after the outcome.
At this point we are into the impact an Brexit, dealing with what is going to happen.
Except we don't have any idea, we're in uncharted waters when it does happen (we've not left yet).
I hope it goes well for all our sakes, but if it turns out to be a complete bit of a mess, which given those responsible on both sides, I won't be surprised by, I won't hesitate to say "I told you so".
Except we don't have any idea, we're in uncharted waters when it does happen (we've not left yet).
So possibly the sensible and rational way would be to start with what we do know and work from there (we know that the net cost of EU membership is not 10bn for a start)
Amazingly there is a lot of data out there that could be used to form policy and progress a way forward. People on both sides won't like that way forward but going back to making numbers up and shouting loudly to make headlines is a bad way to go.
Look Ninfan, I've found this marvellous quote:
The Treasury has published an analysis (pdf) of the implications of Britain leaving the EU and concluded that the economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, costing each household £4,300.
So you can wait 14 years to see if you're correct. About 14 hours after the result, the first Brexit lies unravelled.
Does anyone have a list of the businesses or business owners that backed Brexit?
Dyson and Wetherspoons obviously but who else?
JCB.
the first Brexit lies unravelled.
they weren't lies they were accountancy errors.
A few weeks back you said £ was recovering. I note it's now lower than immediately after the result.
I've no idea why anyone would want to make a judgement on the movement of currency. Way too many factors.
Irrespective I would just get on and book the holiday.
Wikipedia has a good list of endorsements, including businesses and "business leaders";
Just the list of political parties for each side is... enlightening
I am always puzzled when BSers spout nonsense figures. Are they:
1. Too lazy to check them
2. Too ignorant to understand them
3. Too immersed in constant BS that they can't distinguish between fact and fiction - start to believe their own BS
4. Happy to treat the truth and others with complete contempt - the ends justify the means approach
5. Simply poor wind up merchants
Either way, they end up looking pretty stupid despite their perceived victories.
Yeah, ww3 is completely sensible. Never has bullshit been piled into the middle with such vigour by two sides in the history of bullshit.
Businesses don't pay the £10bn
Businesses benefit from depressed wages and freedom of movement
Businesses are notoriously short term, they care much more about 6-12 months than 3, 5 and 10 years
Businesses love the tax games they can play in the EU
@mike the £10bn is after all te grants etc, we pay the EU £18bn gross. They give us back £8bn of our own money and we are suppsoed to be grateful ?
As for £10bn being "not much" it's the equivalent of VAT being either 17.5% or 20% - you choose, when we bailed out Ireland we lent the, £4bn fwiw.
Even without freedom of movement Spain, Italy, France etc are not going to kick out 1000's of Brits living there paying taxes and spending mkney they [b]desperately[/b] need.
If we pay tarifs on imports goods will get more expensive, that BM/VW/Seat/Renault will cost 12% more but non-EU cars will cost the same, customers can choose what to do. As we have a massive trade deficit the UK government will make a huge amount in import duties. Trade tarifs boost domestic demand (a good thing) and it's trivial for financial services to setup a branch/shell co and "re-brand". What do you think Apple/Amazon/Starbucks have done ? You can't do that with a farm or a car factory. The average level of import dury would be 3%, I saw from the Corbyn thread duty on lamb is 40% (set by EU to screw NZ etc) well I 'll be very happy to know my Lamb comes from Wales or Scotland and know by beef burger is beef not horse.
Either way, they end up looking pretty stupid despite their perceived victories.
The only "victory" Remain can claim is the currency down 5-10% and that's lead to a boost in tourism and manufacturing.
France btw have confirmed the Le Touquet agreement will stand (customs on French side) and what's more they are closing Calais Jungle and dispersing the migrants all over France (very expesnive and unpopular which is why they never did it before). Post Brexit vote there has been a big increase in Calais migrants chosing to claim asylum in France as they say they don't feel they will be welcome in the UK.
jambalaya - Member
@igm
Businesses don't pay the £10bn
Businesses benefit from depressed wages and freedom of movement
Businesses are notoriously short term, they care much more about 6-12 months than 3, 5 and 10 years
Businesses love the tax games they can play in the EU
Jamba - I think you misunderstand. I'm drawing up my boycott list. I will not buy from Dyson, or drink in Wetherspoons etc. And I'm going to encourage others to do the same.
It may not do much but I don't reward evil gits*.
* I accept they may just be misguided.
The only "victory" Remain can claim is the currency down 5-10% and that's lead to a boost in tourism and manufacturing.
Why would Remain claim any victory here? The fall in the value of £ is a result of Remain losing the vote.
Like all things economic - it is a double-edged sword. With this indirect injection coupled with an actual cut in rates we have more of the folly of taxing savers, only worse. But at least UK shoppers keep on their merry way.
EU has more to lose than the UK in the event of trade tariffs.
[url= http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-22/eu-has-more-to-lose-than-u-k-if-brexit-leads-to-trade-curbs ]Bloomberg Article[/url]
Why would that make any one happy? We benefit when the EU is rel strong (esp Germany, France, Neth) and vice versa, this petty them and us stuff shows a remarkable lack of understanding of business basics
IS this another brexit claim - VAT will be reduced if we leave?it's the equivalent of VAT being either 17.5% or 20%
the point remains that £10 billion is not a large % in terms of govt spend.
Can you explain the later to me as 3.6 million is a greater percentage of our working age population than theirs. the number is large but in percentage terms its not even closeAbout 5.8 million jobs are linked to trade with Britain, while only 3.6 million British posts are dependent on exports to the EU, policy analyst Civitas said in a report. The EU also has a greater proportion of its labor market at stake.
UK
41,241,000-- 3,6 - or about 10 %
EU - 450 million - I worked this out i failed to find a figure [ 60% of the population] - 5.8 or about 1.2 %
Not sure how this makes it more important for them though the burden is not shared evenly between all countries within the EU.
Its clear they dont want to lose our trade but they are in trouble and we are in deep deep trouble
“A fair deal that allows freedom to trade without unrestricted freedom of movement is the clear best solution, for us, and for them.”
This is never going to happen. It might be the best solution economically but it is not acceptable politically so its pointless discussing this as an option
We cannot leave, stop paying, not have to adhere to their rules and they will just allow us free trade- its beyond wishful thinking to think this has any chance of happening
That Bloomberg piece is really poor and more spin than fact.
Everyone will lose,economically, without free trade Our trade with them is still a greater % of their trade with them so the risk is clearly more on us than it is on them
No amount of pissing around with the figures to spin it will alter this fact- we can hurt an economy that is x5 the size of us a little more than they can hurt us but they can carry the hurt greater than we can as they are less reliant on our trade than we are on them - look at the percentages involved across the EU v across the UK 40 % our trade less than 4% of theirs]. Its inescapable hence whey almost all Brexiters still want free trade.