I've just been on LinkedIn and there is a post 'Airbus is one of the great Welsh manufacturing success stories of the age' from Welsh Trade and Investment. First reply:
Richard Debenham 3rd degree connection3rd
Senior Managing Director at LEVEL ELEVATORS
Let’s bring this great manufacturing heritage back to the UK.
We don’t need the EU to help us.
Perhaps this person is a gammon but it's still odd that someone with that title could fail to see what problems Brexit will cause Airbus!
Plenty of people in all walks of life have plenty to lose. Some of them might not think they are likely to lose (or at least not lose much), but that's another matter entirely.
It’s often been said that if brexit is overturned it will result in civil unrest. I think there’s a high probability of that.
I think there's a high probability of civil unrest by about six people. The shouty racists aren't representative of most leave voters, they're just the loudest.
I think if you are trying achieve a consensus, continuing to call Remainers gammons is not the way to go about it.
Remainers aren't all gammons. Just the gammony ones. And whatever name you give those swivel-eyed cretins, it's not going to sway their opinions one iota.
The sensible reasons people voted to brexit were – bespoke trade arrangements, border controls, a desire for fewer politicians and exasperation at the bureaucratic nature of the post-Maastricht EU
Bespoke trade agreements which will surely be worse than the ones we already have. Reckon Brian's Mini-Mart gets a more favourable deal with it's distributors than Tesco does? Which is cheaper to shop at? And in any case, who are we so desperate to strike up trade deals with that we don't already have an agreement with? Cambodia?
Border controls that we already have and choose not to use. Plus something something foreigners.
Fewer politicians and less bureaucracy? That's hilarious, the EU is a well-oiled machine compared to our own parliament. There are 750 MEPs covering 28 countries, our House of Commons has 650 members just for a couple of rainy little islands, and that's before you look at the HoL which is another few hundred.
What else have you got? These are all reasons which are superficially "sensible" if someone believes in them, but have no bearing in reality. You might as well vote to leave because of a fear of a zombie invasion, totally sensible if France was full of zombies, which it isn't.
Remainers are gammons. Eh? Did I miss something?
Which did lead into the slight stumbling block of how they planned to deliver that and the consequences of it.
And the fact that they can't aid companies when they have no money because the economy's tanked.
The FACTS are that we are woefully underprepared. I know you think you will get unicorns and love the moggster but please try to attend an EU Exit briefing and TRY to listen with an open mind.
You shouldn't make assumptions, I've never advocated leaving with no deal, and voted remain. I just think very few people look at the arguments in a balance manner and resort to silly language like unicorns.
mr mo - ditto
How much money will we have to spare after leaving the EU – Factually Incorrect
There has never been an dispute about the figures, the Leave campaign explained their rationale for using a gross figure. Although rather ironically, by the time we leave the net number will be much closer to £350 million than the net figure used by the remain campaign.
Also there are plenty of facts about how much we use EU institutions to run our country.
The sensible reasons people voted to brexit were – bespoke trade arrangements, border controls, a desire for fewer politicians and exasperation at the bureaucratic nature of the post-Maastricht EU
Unfortunately at least one of those problems could have been solved at any point by the British government while in the EU
the Leave campaign explained their rationale for using a gross figure
Was it "it's bigger therefore scarier and hopefully no-one will realise until it's too late?" Because if it wasn't then that's another lie we can add to the list.
The sensible reasons people voted to brexit were – bespoke trade arrangements, border controls, a desire for fewer politicians and exasperation at the bureaucratic nature of the post-Maastricht EU
Pretty much all of which are either in our control, or have been shown subsequently to not be achievable or downright false.
It's like if I said to my wife 'shall we go to that new restaurant' and then when we get there and look at the menu there's nothing we like, it's overpriced and the chef's visible in the kitchen scratching his arse.
But we said we're going and therefore we're going - even if it's obvious we're going to be served up stuff we don't like, worse off as a result and highly likely to spend the next week in bed shitting violently from both ends.
Was it “it’s bigger therefore scarier and hopefully no-one will realise until it’s too late?”
No, it was, "if we use a bullshit figure, the opposition will focus on the fact that the figure is wrong, drawing more attention to the costs of membership, rather than focusing on the benefits, and it will work in our favour." Dominic Cummings was a cunning bastard.
In the event of a second referendum.
Im going with a win for leave!
How much money will we have to spare after leaving the EU – Factually Incorrect
There has never been an dispute about the figures, the Leave campaign explained their rationale for using a gross figure. Although rather ironically, by the time we leave the net number will be much closer to £350 million than the net figure used by the remain campaign.
So you dislike forecasts for their lack of facts etc. but miss the obvious...
We have to pay the EU to leave, this is a figure currently around 4-5 years worth of contributions.
We need to fund further bodies and infrastructure to support out new status
We have currently spent more on Brexit that EU membership costs.
Where is the money coming from? Or are you planting the magic money tree too?
We have to pay the EU to leave, this is a figure currently around 4-5 years worth of contributions.
That's not true. We don't have to pay to leave at all, that's a Leave lie (I know, who'd have thought it, I was shocked too). The so-called "divorce bill" is our outstanding payments for projects we've committed to invest in. It's money we'll have to pay - money we'd already agreed and promised before the referendum to pay - regardless of whether we leave or not.
The so-called “divorce bill” is our outstanding payments for projects we’ve committed to invest in
Correct. And because we're leaving we won't see the benefits of our investment. Doh!
The sort of thing you could have put on a Remain bus, if they had one.
That’s not true. We don’t have to pay to leave at all,
Sorry we have to settle our tab on the way out, we still have to pay it, we are still going to pay it and we will still be paying more than we pay into the EU over the next few years. There is no brexit dividend, it does not exist - think that covers it.
Correct. And because we’re leaving we won’t see the benefits of our investment. Doh!
Ongoing projects will still recive funding untill their completed. So some of the divorce bill will come back to us.
of course we have to settle our tab on the way out the door. That's how contracts work. You sign up to something and then you do it.....
Actually we will lose funding for some projects, the govt has promised to make that up so that is yet more costs. I've recently applied for €250k for example that will have to come from the UK if we leave (and if I get awarded it, which to be honest is a long shot).
Ongoing projects will still recive funding untill their completed. So some of the divorce bill will come back to us.
Agreed, if you mean things like EU grants for roads in remote areas of UK. But we're out of EU projects like Galileo.
The "divorce bill" which will be paid over a very long time because a significant proportion relates to pensions which will continue to be paid until death of the pensioner or spouse, if later. As Taxi25 rightly says some of it will come back, but there will certainly be no year in which our payment will be anything like our present contribution, so there will be a saving at this level. However, what the bill shows is that the true annual cost of membership was considerably understated by using the cash figures in the campaign, a less circumspect individual might accuse the Remain side of lying.
The Institute of Government estimate Brexit spending in Whitehall will be about £2 billion so again considerably less than that the contribution to the EU budget.
We are already in the EU so know to a high level what the future would be like if we stayed in.
As the financial ads says "past Performance is no guide to the future". Macron wants fundamental change, he wants to build a European Empire, whilst Cameron to his credit protected us from some impacts, there is no question the EU is likely to look very different within 10 years, a point which was only occasionally discussed in the campaign.
The Institute of Government estimate Brexit spending in Whitehall will be about £2 billion so again considerably less than that the contribution to the EU budget.
Hang on forecast can't be true..... You can't have it both ways there.
How much have we spent so far? What will we spend outside of Whitehall? How much will these borders cost?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
That's the problem that relying on an economically illiterate newspaper, they regard unprovable lost growth as a cost, but they have form they are always going on about unfunded tax cuts, which is a completely ridiculous use of language.
The IOG numbers are based on actual out turn, figures included in departmental budgets and an small element of forecast, so whilst not perfect, certainly more accurate than a long term forecast.
So give us better figures then.....
Did anyone else laugh at the irony of the PM saying there might be a second commons vote for MPs if the deal doesn't get passed first time?
I'm a little confused as to why letting tha MPs vote again would be democratic, but letting the people vote in a second referendum would be anti-democratic...
Twice in a few weeks, the ****ing hypocrites. Not to mention the ****puffins in the cabinet who were for the deal before they were against it. Change their minds much?
Macron wants fundamental change, he wants to build a European Empire,
Which could be the first step towards a global integration of people. Once people stop thinking of a specific region as theirs that they own and regard it as a contributor to the whole perhaps we can break the cycles of aggression and poverty. Not to go all Star Trek but the plant is quite small and to have all of these tiny tribes (and tribes within tribes) where we believe we are intrinsically better than people 99.99% the same as us is ****ing primitive
Yep the day we only use countries for sport will be progress
I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that if you have or want a local, regional or national identity or boundaries it makes you think you're better than others. You can be different, live in different places, have borders separating those places and still be equal.
I would like less government. The majority of issues that effect our daily lives could and should be sorted at the local level. Schools, transport, libraries, social care I could go on. When they wanted to close the local park near me it was a petition of local people and a local councillor that saved it, not Westminster, the EU or the United Federation of Planets.
When they wanted to close the local park near me it was a petition of local people and a local councillor that saved it,
Westminster has never been about improving you life on a local level. It is about continuation of a country in a global market. The first thing they fight for is their prestige and place at the big boys table by using your work and skills (or cash) as a lever.
once you get rid of the braying and the I am better than you to begin cooperating things get better for more people. For me this has been the big success of the EU. Trouble is it has upset the feelings of order and Britannia can’t feel superior to those Eastern Europeans just leaving the soviet block and people are all butt hurt. Much like if a colleague gets a raise and you don’t.
And whilst we're talking about ' global integration of people' how did that work out for the Syrian refugees that ended up in detention camps in Greece or sent back to Turkey who sent them back to a war zone despite receiving the EU billions? Freedom of movement didn't work out too well for them. Or the 13000 refugees expelled from Algeria, after pressure from the EU, and forced to walk across the Sahara back to Niger. Freedom of movement must seem like a great policy to them too.
Fortress Europe very much still seems to think of a specific region as 'theirs'
Well the neoliberalist policies of the UK and the EU on the global market has done wonders for some in the country.
Between 2007 and 2015 real wages fell in Britain by 10.4%, the biggest fall in leading OECD countries, whilst during the same period the richest 1000 people saw there wealth double by £576 billion
So give us better figures then…..
I did, but I am not the one who goes on about solid facts to prove or disprove a case, all information is imperfect, one has to make a judgement, Tetlock reckons there are super forecasters in the world, but invariably they are not the professed experts.
Fortress Europe very much still seems to think of a specific region as ‘theirs’
Very much so, they are not a bunch of hippies - although the hippies have swallowed it hook line and sinker.
Yehy let's rebuild a massively expensive system that we are already heavily involved with for the the sake of it.
Who's gonna pay for it? It'll have to be payed for by taxing the average person, because big multinationals don't pay tax.. Further cuts to the NHS and other public services to prop it up?
and another minister gone
Quite, the free movement of people isn't some benevolent right handed down to us by the good grace of the EU. Along with the other free movements, capital, goods and freedom to establish services, it's a means to grease the wheels of capitalism. Any side effects like nice holidays in Picardy are just coincidental.
The official road map
'official' ? Lol!
I would like less government. The majority of issues that effect our daily lives could and should be sorted at the local level
So local government then?
The problem there is if others, say corporations, operate on the larger stage the local governments will often be outmatched and need to band together to counter it.
Between 2007 and 2015 real wages fell in Britain by 10.4%, the biggest fall in leading OECD countries
Well you can’t discount the crash and the impact of the Bank of England printing money to keep the wheels rolling. In fact there was an piece this week talking about how this stabilised the place but caused wage depression/stagnation.
The trouble is if people expect to earn more each year, pay less for goods but still have their investments (businesses) turning over higher profits someone somewhere will need to be getting less...
I would like less government. The majority of issues that effect our daily lives could and should be sorted at the local level. Schools, transport, libraries, social care I could go on. When they wanted to close the local park near me it was a petition of local people and a local councillor that saved it, not Westminster, the EU or the United Federation of Planets.
What affects your daily life? The kinds of treatments and medicines available in your nearest hospital?The range of foods available in your shops? The cleanliness of the air you breath? The purity of the water you drink? Ensuring your personal data is safe from being abused, or that hostile bombs are not being dropped on your head? These are big considerations, and not normally in the remit of the gallant local councillor that saved your local park.