[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

we have to wait for the 1922 ctte to speak. SO the future leadership of the country is decided by a backroom committee, and all because we voted for more democracy. Oh the ironing...

Tories know how to win

I think the smoke is still black for now, but the BBC say:

It will be up to the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs to decide the timetable - or whether to continue with a leadership contest.

If it is decided that Mrs May is to become leader, uncontested, she would become prime minister-designate or "PM elect" only upon the declaration by the 1922.

So Loathesome is out. I can't work out if that is bad news for the country or really bad news. Could go either way.

In case you feel the need for a bit of a chuckle to take your mind off the upcoming endtimes where the Tory party start with the script from the Hunger Games, mix it with 1984, remove all the cuddly bits and then really go to town on the population of the UK, here is John Finnemore on the outcome of the 2015 general election. Seems rather prophetic now.....

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😆

More doors opening than closing, a bright future ahead

Begging bowl in hand, more like.

Osbourne off to China, Singapore and US on a global trade tour. More doors opening than closing, a bright future ahead

BTW China has been devaluing its currency to help boost its economy

🙄

Osbourne off to China, Singapore and US on a global trade tour. More doors opening than closing, a bright future ahead

Excellent - we can all look forward to TTIP, plus equivalent legal shaftings by China and Singapore. 😕

This is [url= https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/extracts-from-the-chancellors-speech-on-europe ]George Osborne speaking to the Open Europe Conference in Jan 2014[/url]

Take free trade.

Britain was one of the strongest promoters of the recent trade deals with Canada, Singapore and Korea. The Canada deal alone will be worth £1.3 billion pounds to Britain.

Reducing the budget, tackling red tape, some free trade agreements - this is a good beginning, but it's not nearly enough.

We need to be much, much bolder.

[b]We should set ourselves the urgent task of completing the transatlantic trade and investment partnership – the EU-US Free Trade agreement.[/b]

This would be the world's biggest ever trade deal – together our economies would account for half of global output.

The Commission estimate it would boost the European economy by 120 billion euros a year – that's over 500 euros for every family in the EU. It would bring £10 billion pounds a year to the UK alone.

[b]Some in the European Parliament talk about stalling this Trans-Atlantic Partnership[/b] to pursue other agendas.

But when a quarter of young people looking for work in Europe are unemployed, this would be a complete betrayal.

We need to create jobs, increase trade, support business growth – we've got the European tools to help with the job, let's get on and use them.

Yay, now we are free from all those stalling EU naysayers, we can negotiate our own version of TTIP from the fantastic position of a collapsing economy and the promise of access to less than a tenth of the EU market.

Great.

Could we end up being like Scotland in 1706? Will we be forced to join another country? I wonder which one it could be...

Germany's economy is normally good - and all the Germans I've met have been nice people.

We could do worse than apply to join Germany.

we can negotiate our own version of TTIP from the fantastic position of a collapsing economy and the promise of access to less than a tenth of the EU market.

Surely that will take forever, we were going to be at the back of the queue and everything, remember?

We should just go the whole hog and join NAFTA

I thought the NAFTA was starting to fall apart - no?

We could do worse than apply to join Germany.

Yeah and Anglo-Saxons are basically German anyway. It's re-unification.

Germany's economy is normally good - and all the Germans I've met have been nice people.
We could do worse than apply to join Germany.

But really, a combination of our food and their food?!? Bugger that!

But really, a combination of our food and their food?!? Bugger that!

Zokes

combination of our food and their food?!? Bugger that!

But their beer and our beer... Would you care about the food?

We should just go the whole hog and join NAMBLA

Yeah and we can only dream that one day we'll be as successful as Mexico.

"TBH which one of us does not wish we could be more like China?"

I've only been there once but it was great. All the people seemed happy, even at work. There's a massive European ex-pat community who love it and want to stay.

Obviously it's a big place, I'm sure it's not all so wonderful.

Obviously it's a big place, I'm sure it's not all so wonderful.

[img] [/img]

Id consider China if they could sign up to something like....

[url= http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/legis.htm ]Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe[/url]

Have a friend who has been sent to beijing for work quite a bit and some days the air is horrendous

All the people seemed happy, even at work.

there you go then 50 years of political and personal and social constraint is all you need to get people happy at work.

To the barricades comrades.

jambalaya - Member
Tories know how to win,

You've posted that a few times now but really in recent history they've made some shocking decisions. Major followed by Hague (before he was ready) followed by IDS followed by Howard. Even against a creaking labour government headed by an 'unpopular' leader in Brown, Cameron couldn't win a decisive majority. I'm not sure your positivity is at all well founded.

Seems like an STW-Utopia. That smog is a healthy sign of a left wing Govt with a productive coal mining industry powering a manufacturing based economy (as opposed to service).

Tories know how to win,

Let's wait and see Mr Hoppy, 2020 is the next test. Right now it feels like a landslide

I see all the negativity is out in force. We need shot of the EU as fast as possible, its bust

Leadsome quits the PM race and the Brexit Vote not legally binding.

Right, so, all you belligerent, facist, homophobic, narsacistic, misogenistic, thick headed Brexit voters do what your leaders have done... and leave.

There is NO place in the UK for the likes of you.

Trott off, ferries and planes are waiting.

Some of them already have I heard

"Leadsome quits the PM race and the Brexit Vote not legally binding.
Right, so, all you belligerent, facist, homophobic, narsacistic, misogenistic, thick headed Brexit voters do what your leaders have done... and leave.
There is NO place in the UK for the likes of you.
Trott off, ferries and planes are waiting."

Hmmm, negative net immigration? That won't please remainers.

But that's because the opposition appear to be doing their best to destroy themselves from within (much like the Tories of the 90s and new millennia), not because of any 'winning' ability of the story candidates.

As for our electoral system we DO NOT elect a President (PM), an individual. We elect a party and they chose a PM. We also changed to fixed term parliaments so unless the Tories vote to dissolve Parliament early there will be no general election

MrH I can see your point but its all academic, we need to wait till 2020 to see who is right

As for our electoral system we DO NOT elect a President (PM), an individual.

Imagine if the EU had done such a backdoor deal without any form of democratic accountability.

No Jamba.

We elect MPs and they propose a PM to HMQ.

I understand it's difficult to follow. 😉

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

IGM same thing isn't it

Nope.

Linky Jamba?

I saw this one the other day: [url= https://next.ft.com/content/cb8bc258-4510-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1 ]"IMF downgrades eurozone growth post-Brexit" (FT)[/url] which said:

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its projections for growth in the euro area, arguing the UK's decision to leave the EU will dent the region's economic recovery over the next two years.

The IMF said on Friday that it expected the eurozone's economy to grow by 1.6 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2017, down from earlier estimates of an 1.7 per cent expansion for this year and next. Those earlier estimates were made just ahead of the Brexit vote.

Our vote to leave has caused the EU significant harm. That seems fairly obvious. But it seems a bit of a circular argument to say that's why we left.

Does make me worry about Scotland joining it though - I'm not sure I'd vote for that till it is clear just how much damage Brexit has done to the EU.

I'm still all for "Remain".

"I saw this one the other day: "IMF downgrades eurozone growth post-Brexit"

The Express puts it in a much more exciting way though. Diana wasn't involved.

IMF Report

[url= http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2016/CAR070816A.htm ]IMF Report [/url]

Bwhahahah Leadsom has flounced? 😀

Guys Europe is totally ****ed. They've "kicked the can down the road" on Greece (and Spain & Italy) but the game is up. Too little too late on QE (due to German objections, they didn't need it and so screw the rest) Brexit will be far worse for them than us economically and its seismic politcally. IMF references rising eurosceptism, thats obvious as people have seen what a disaster its been on so many levels

Guys Europe is totally ****ed. They've "kicked the can down the road" on Greece (and Spain & Italy) but the game is up. Too little too late on QE (due to German objections, they didn't need it and so screw the rest) Brexit will be far worse for them than us economically and its seismic politcally. IMF references rising eurosceptism, thats obvious as people have seen what a disaster its been on so many levels

You've kept saying this, I don't think a 0.2% drop in forecast growth is anything like what we will suffer. Do you have any macroeconomic evidence to back your claims up? Or just the revelations of a lunatic?

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

We know that which is why

1. We are not part of the EZ
2. This position is recognised and protected
3. We are not/were not on the hook for any EZ liabilities

Still made good scaremongering stories for the hard of comprehension 😉

Surely the IMF can get Ethan Hunt to sort it out?
Makes more sense than relying on the English Cricket Board again?

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust,

except it doesnt say that 🙄

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

IMF Report

eh? The report you linked to just sets out a strategy for mitigating any problems, it doesn't say it's bust at all.

OOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

JAMBAFACT!

Admittedly I've not paid the $18 for the full 70-page report, but the [url= http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16326.htm ]Press Release[/url] does seem to summarise the findings.

Allow me to cherry-pick some quotes in a suitable STW fashion:

[b]The recovery has strengthened recently.[/b] Lower oil prices, a broadly neutral fiscal stance, and accommodative monetary policy are supporting domestic demand. However, inflation and inflation expectations remain very low, below the European Central Bank (ECB) medium-term price stability objective. [b]Euro area GDP growth[/b] is expected to decelerate from 1.6 percent this year to 1.4 percent in 2017, mainly due to the negative impact of the U.K. referendum outcome. Helped by gradually rising energy prices, headline inflation is expected to increase from 0.2 percent this year to 1.1 percent next year.
...
As a result, [b]growth five-years ahead is expected to be about 1.5 percent[/b], with headline inflation reaching only 1.7 percent.

I'm definitely not an economist - but on the surface that doesn't seem to say "The Eurozone is bust" to me.

Can you explain the finer detail jamba?

Just posted this on another thread, nonetheless; it's quite interesting that [url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/11/brexit-parliament-should-make-ultimate-decision-on-whether-to-leave-eu-barristers-say ]1000 Barristers have lobbied parliament[/url], questioning the legitimacy of the referendum, describing the result as 'only advisory' because it was based on “misrepresentations of fact and promises that could not be delivered”.

1000.

Barristers.

That's a lot of legal weight.

Any Brexiters still here?

WHY?

Ta, ta.

Off you goose step.

There are also some pretty big legal brains against Brexit (ie Geoffrey Robertson). On the other side there's, er, jambalaya.

Which way would parliament vote?

Off you goose step.

Please don't do that. It's good to hear both sides.
You don't hear anything new in an echo chamber.

Which way would parliament vote?

I believe it's estimated that around 75% of MP's are against Brexit.

You do have to admire Jamba's dogged determination on this though.

So a thousand Lawyers have worked out a non-binding referendum suggesting a non specific action with no time scale doesn't require action. Money well spent! 🙂

It is presumably possible to pretend to be pro-brexit, then let the lawyers shoot it down (or manipulate the legal debate) and remain, claiming your hands were tied....

As for unity - dream on. This vote has blown the whole country apart. It's a long way from a simple economic issue. This vote found the issue that divides the country more neatly than any other. From a remainer perspective, it has torn away something hugely important - the spirit of mutual co-operation, fraternity and solidarity. AND put us at an economic disadvantage. AND taken away rights we loved having.

She's going to unite us about as well as Thatcher did.

So, who's in charge of the ministry for Brexit ?

..... Befuddled etonian racist, Oliver Letwin 😳

What happened last time he was involved in implementing some policy....?

[img] [/img]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/30/downing-street-files-oliver-letwin-poll-tax

No wonder Cameron was humming to himself as he announced his last day

You do have to admire Jamba's dogged determination on this though.

Courage of my convictions.

@Tom its what I do for a living, having seen a few economic cycles and studied and observed many corporate and soverign defaults I am backing myself on this.

In 2010 it was a commonly held view (especially outside Europe) that the euro would collpase and original currencies be reestablished, they kicked the can down the road and forced eurozone taxpayers to take over the loans the markets where no longer prepared to make.

Just wait and see folks. EU/ECB is out of ammunition, disparate group of countries locked into a currency which cannot succeed (only solution is full fiscal and political union now which absolutely won't happen) and a mountain of debt from over extended soverign borrowers who can't devalue "their" currency. Merkel and Hollande are hanging on with elections in 2017, something is going to crack then we will see "armageddon" which will make 2007/8 look like a tea party

Courage of my convictions

Without meaning to offend, I have to point out that courage of conviction is not that different to bloodymindedness 🙂

Jam, why do you keep banging on about the Eurozone on an EU/UK thread?

It's because we have a non-collateralised exposure to Greece etc via the IMF...

Or is he being selective in his arguments?

What I find more interesting is that Jamba's economic argument for leaving is not something I heard being publicised by the Leave campaigns.

Which suggests his reason for leaving may be quite different from the majority of Leavers.

[quote=molgrips ]It is presumably possible to pretend to be pro-brexit, then let the lawyers shoot it down (or manipulate the legal debate) and remain, claiming your hands were tied....

I'm eagerly awaiting May's five tests which will result in us leaving as soon as they are all met.

[quote=GrahamS ]Which suggests his reason for leaving may be quite different from the majority of Leavers.

Pick any reason for leaving...

Jamba's economic argument for leaving is not something I heard being publicised by the Leave campaigns.

Which suggests his reason for leaving may be quite different from the majority of Leavers.

Here's a reason to be cheerful.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/14/uk-defeats-european-bid-fracking-regulations

The UK vetoed the EU's attempts to put controls around fracking. Now that we're out, they can get on with making the world a better place without us trying to stop them all the time.

@Graham, it was given some airtime during the campaign but it was not an issue which resonated strongly with most voters / undecideds I suspect. Also there was an issue of it being "irresponsible" to "destabilise the markets" by (cough cough) telling the truth.

Guardian picking up on IMF report and in particular Italy. A 20 year recession they suggest is very possible. Italian Banks have taken a real pounding since Brexit vote - down 30%. Where the Guardian has it wrong is that these problems are not the result of Brexit but existed already

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has led to investors focusing on the problems of the Italian banking sector, fearing that renewed turmoil in the eurozone will lead to lower growth, a fresh wave of bankruptcies, and an increase in NPLs. Unicredit, Italy’s biggest bank, has lost a third of its value since 23 June, and its shares fell by almost 4% on Monday.

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/11/imf-warns-italy-of-two-decade-long-recession ]Linky[/url]

As I posted before Italy is one of the most eurosceptic nations, the people want outnof the economic restrictions and are appalled at being dropped in the sh.t over policing the Mediterranean when EU withdrew funding for migrant patrols

I'm confused. Why would the problems in Italy and the EZ be bad for Britain if we stayed?

Since when has Italy actually not been in some economic turmoil? They've been consistently inept and corrupt since before the second world war - their growth in the 80's was pretty much down to utterly unsustainable public spending which they are reaping the rewards of now.

Really, the economies of the west are all stagnating anyway - some before others, but in the grander scheme of things, wealth is being transferred to and generated in the east.

Italy is actually a very interesting economy, lots of very innovative family companies and the dominance of the family unit is a huge factor in their having far less of a pension timebomb.

It's also why their politics and corporate world are massively corrupt.

We'd have less of a pension timebomb if we had more children and spent less on ridiculous things like cancer medications for 80 year olds that end up sparking chemo brain/alzheimers.

It's also why their politics and corporate world are massively corrupt.

To an extent yes, but there is far more nuance, Northern Italy has far more in common with Switzerland than the south of Italy.

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

mikewsmith - Member

I see the IMF published a report on the eurozone yesterday - points out what I have said all along. Its bust, its been a disaster especially for Southern Europe

I'm assuming this is a different IMF to the one who's predictions for a Brexit involved a recession and hardship for the UK who you all told us were only interested in themselves and their reports were massivly biased

I liked the bit about him correcting the Guardian.

Jamba's comments on fiscal union being the logical solution to the euro are probably right. Different monetary policies in one currency are a problem.

Italy is interesting. The government is just this side of bankrupt, but the country as a whole (including personal wealth) is as I recall better off than Germany. It's where the wealth resides that becomes the issue. Allegedly it's because the Germans are more willing to pay tax than the Italians- but how would you have felt paying Berlisconi.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears

Lots of worried scientists around right now

That's awesome Kimbers. Let the brain drain commence. If Brexit ever happens we'll be reduced to plagiarising cheap tat just like China.