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It's funny that those who voted to leave are accusing remainers of "short-termism": Surely throwing your toys out of the pram at the earliest perceived notion of difficulty and voting to leave, without any kind of exit strategy or long-term plan, is the very definition of "short-termism".
The sensible thing to have done was stay in, work with our European partners, and seek to make the most out of the situation. If it is then determined that the structure is not working, the Country is still in a strong position to continue working with our closest trade partners under whatever direction it is agreed to take the EU in.
Certainly, in terms of diplomacy, we have effectively burnt our bridges by acting as the angry toddler of the EU, which does nothing for future relationships which, regardless of whatever anyone from the leave camp says, we will still need to rely on.
The sensible thing to have done was stay in, work with our European partners
except that a lot of the leave voters had determined that reform was not possible, based on recent events.
The older voters that voted leave had seen the whole history of going into the common market and then it morphing into the current EU, and clearly were not happy about it and suspicious that it was possible to effect any change.
So basically this whole mess can be attributed to the inflexibility of the EU...
If it had stayed as a trading community everything would have been fine.
Free movement of labour (which seems to be the major sticking point) was always one of the founding principles of the single market.
The older voters that voted leave had seen the whole history of going into the common market and then it morphing into the current EU, and clearly were not happy about it and suspicious that it was possible to effect any change.So basically this whole mess can be attributed to the inflexibility of the EU...
Or Werthers Originals and bitterness?
[img] https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS07ekTl0xyXbC2zEmXPqUq4lu8gh5esSrbSKtiIha1LcSk9b_V [/img]
So basically this whole mess can be attributed to the inflexibility of the EU...
Quite possibly true.
Free movement of labour (which seems to be the major sticking point) was always one of the founding principles of the single market.
Yes, but people might've been more willing to accept it if they saw it as a symptom of something good, rather than bad.
Well hopefully we'll get to keep freedom of movement of labour in whatever trading deal we do after Brexit.
It's what we freely chose in the 70s, by a massive margin. Which makes it all the more odd when you hear the older generation whinge "we never voted for this in the 70s". Admittedly, the implementation has changed a bit since, but the fundamental principle hasn't.
Of course most of us never voted for it in the 70s because we didn't have the vote (and/or were not even born). Didn't vote for hitler or the 21st century either, they still both happened.
Well hopefully we'll get to keep freedom of movement of labour in whatever trading deal we do after Brexit.
Yes, if we get a close EEA style deal, I think most things will carry on as normal. We'll just have no control over any of it. Hopefully then the deal gets put to a vote, and people will realise that the whole thing is stupid and step away from A50 altogether.
This is the best summary of the whole debate, in charts that I have seen. It's from the FT so sober and down to earth.
Divorce - it's the only reasonable course of action.
seeing the mediator next wednesday - taking advantage of their 50% off the first appointment in July offer...
This is the best summary of the whole debate / prognosis, in charts, that I have seen. It's from the FT so sober and down to earth. It looks at the impact of EU membership on growth, regulation, wages and migration with a couple of charts on trade deals and economists thrown in.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/06/african-wildlife-officials-appalled-as-eu-opposes-a-total-ban-on-ivory-trade?CMP=share_btn_tw#comments
The EU have learnt to also ignore experts advice...
When you consider that there were 600,000 elephants at the start of the crisis which led to this Appendix I proposal and there are now less than 400,000, I am at a loss to understand why this is not more troubling for the EU
Binners I am loss as to why there would be a bug increase in unemployment due to the Referendum.
Lower currency makes uk assets look more attractive to foreign buyers and investors than before
Lower currency makes our manufacturing more competitve as whilst imported raw materials will be more expensive typically that makes up just a small part of a products cinal price, its wages and other value add (inc profit margin) which make up the difference and those elements are cheaper today from a foreign buyers perspective, our exports just got cheaper for them.
I commented on the £/$ rate as I think there is too much doom and gloom focus on it. Its worth noting the € is weaker versus the $ too (as I said not nearly as bad as 2010 when there was a material chance the currency fell apart over Greece, a risk that's not gone away.
Interesting references in BBC piece today on AfD in that German government is trying to head off a jump in their popularity post Brexit vote by pushing for significant reforms at the EU. I do think Junker's days are numbered and we will see a more consiliatory person in place.
Ah yes finally bad EU stories are allowed to resurface. Maybe we'll also see reshows of 90/00's documentaries of the decimation of the UK fishing industry etc too
Interesting that the free movement of labour is likley to be the sticking point for an EU trade agreement and ant analytical negotiating team will have to concede that there is little or no fiscal evidence that free movement has a negative impact on the country's coffers will they concede this? So if this happens what will the protest vote do - serious question not trolling along
Well hopefully we'll get to keep freedom of movement of labour in whatever trading deal we do after Brexit.
Not a universal view 😉 I'd be happy with a quota/cap system if absolutely necessary - for example EU has to take equal number of UK migrants, if we want more over and above that number we can agree that independently with points based system as see following comment on welfare. As notes the Swiss voted to end free movement so we are not alone in pressing for it. If we leave the EU we would be free for example to end all welfare payments / in-work benefits for all new immigrants for 5 years. This would significantly reduce the cost and attractiveness of economic migrants undeructting uk wages and reduce the draw to come to the uk.
have to concede that there is little or no fiscal evidence that free movement has a negative impact on the country's coffers
No need to conceed. The government could easily construct a case showing full cost, housing, health, welfare, tax receipts with clear stratification at lower end. Government has historically covered this up by including high earning execs which muddies the picture significantly
[i]Well hopefully we'll get to keep freedom of movement of labour in whatever trading deal we do after Brexit.[/i]
Yes, if we get a close EEA style deal, I think most things will carry on as normal. We'll just have no control over any of it. Hopefully then the deal gets put to a vote, and people will realise that the whole thing is stupid and step away from A50 altogether.
Ahem....scuse me for sayin like, but wasn't that why we voted out? (to get rid of freedom of movement)
So basically this whole mess can be attributed to the inflexibility of the EU...
IF by inflexibility you mean unwilling to change the rules for us when the others are fine with them and we were "outvoted" then yes they have been inflexible.
Others may think its fairer to say we were inflexible in that we signed up to some rules, would not live by them, wanted them changed, got some limited change and then still voted to leave anyway whereby we then tried to STILL negotiate for that position they have said no to.
They have rules we dont want to abide by. Neither side has been flexible and both have drawn a line in the sand on the issue is the fairer assessment IMHO.
Nothing stays the same and supposition. Probably true to say more folk object to immigration than trade though.If it had stayed as a trading community everything would have been fine.
they have disagreed with an expert on how to tackle the problem they have not denied their is a problem, have their own expert views and they are still debating the issue. They have NOT denigrated experts and this is a disagreement on policy rather than objective. I dont agree with their stance to be clear but its not quite as clear cut as you suggest
wasn't that why we voted out? (to get rid of freedom of movement)
Reasons for voting out seem to have varied, including things like 'to annoy David Cameron'.
On and @jam - interesting constructive points there, for a change 🙂
Equality of movement is an interesting one. As for stopping benefits - that could be quite harmful. So maybe something like no benefits until you get a job..? (as a compromise position - not that I'm actualyl advocating it)
Having said that - is benefit tourism a real thing?
Rockape63 apparently we did vote to shut the doors and in the case of many (based upon TV interviews and personal conversations) believed we would be sending them all home... I suspect neither thing will happen
[i]. If we leave the EU we would be free for example to end all welfare payments / in-work benefits for all new immigrants for 5 years. This would significantly reduce the cost and attractiveness of economic migrants undeructting uk wages and reduce the draw to come to the uk. [/i]
and create an underclass of non-citizens who have to pay the same taxes but don't get the same 'deal'?
This might be how you want YOUR country to operate, but we are all citizens and should have the same conditions - what next, make them live in specified areas of the country (or towns)?
I suspect neither thing will happen
Which is what we said before the vote....
.. I suspect neither thing will happen
Hmmm....I'm not so sure there. Whilst ruling out nothing in these 'interesting' times, it would take a brave person to decide to ignore the wishes of the down trodden who are concerned for their jobs. (rightly or wrongly)
No one seems to realise that the Brexit crowd committed to existing EU nationals in the UK will be given leave to stay - so how many immigrants do we all think are going to wander into the UK over the next 2+ years as they use their last chance to get in? So this influx will drive down wages and unemployment up most likley as the Labour market is flooded. Again working poor will bear the brunt of this.
If we leave the EU we would be free for example to end all welfare payments / in-work benefits for all new immigrants for 5 years. This would significantly reduce the cost and attractiveness of economic migrants undeructting uk wages and reduce the draw to come to the uk.and create an underclass of non-citizens who have to pay the same taxes but don't get the same 'deal'?
[i]
This might be how you want YOUR country to operate, but we are all citizens and should have the same conditions - what next, make them live in specified areas of the country (or towns)?[/i]
But....correct me if I'm wrong, aren't some of them coming here because they get a better deal on benefits than they get in their home countries? Are ALL EU countries paying the same level of benefits to their people? I suspect not!
No one seems to realise that the Brexit crowd committed to existing EU nationals in the UK will be given leave to stay - so how many immigrants do we all think are going to wander into the UK over the next 2+ years as they use their last chance to get in? So this influx will drive down wages and unemployment up most likley as the Labour market is flooded. Again working poor will bear the brunt of this.
Migration is based on an equilibrium of push and pull factors. Why do you assume that people would want to travel to an economy in recession, so they can get their foot in the door, when they could go to Germany instead - and have no worries about their future.
correct me if I'm wrong, aren't some of them coming here because they get a better deal on benefits than they get in their home countries?
I dunno, is it a fact? Quite important.
it would take a brave person to decide to ignore the wishes of the down trodden who are concerned for their jobs
Perhaps, but how about offering a third option? Negotiation, compromise.. anyone hear of these things?
But....correct me if I'm wrong, aren't some of them coming here because they get a better deal on benefits than they get in their home countries? Are ALL EU countries paying the same level of benefits to their people? I suspect not!
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10361971/Britain-admits-it-has-no-figures-on-EU-welfare-tourist-numbers.html ]how would we know ?[/url]
Also this view that the down trodden have taken back power is laughable, as I have said before the electoral system in the UK is far too fractured to allow a single "workers" party to emerge in sufficient force to take power - to win an election in the UK you need the middle ground - no one in the Tory Government will give a shit about anyone from the North on minimum wage being a bit passed off and ends up voting UKIP who incidentally are the new right and the Tories will look after the middle ground.
oldmanmtb - Memberto win an election in the UK you need the middle ground -
Well. You need the votes of the middle, that doesn't mean you have to be in the middle yourself- current government proves that beyond doubt.
I just heard that my dad, an otherwise intelligent man with a phd, voted leave 'as a protest vote'. He didn't think for a second they'd actually win..
words...fail...me
Middle ground doesn't exist.
You need to promise everything and take as much as you can. An ex local MP said to me not so long ago 'do you actually like any politicians'?
"Didn't vote for hitler"
He did try to unite Europe under one flag though.
tpbiker - MemberI just heard that my dad, an otherwise intelligent man with a phd, voted leave 'as a protest vote'. He didn't think for a second they'd actually win..
words...fail...me
I despair at the amount of people that have done this.
Our receptionist voted leave because her mum told her to so I asked why mum wanted to vote leave " because she is old and miserable and my dad was a racist. " ffs .
If I'm honest, I dislike in work benefits that effectively subsidise bad employers.
In a decent society employers ought to pay enough that they don't need in work benefits.
The difficulty of course comes with things like child benefit that some see as in work benefits while others see them as benefits paid to the children that their primary carer (normally) collects on their behalf.
Restructuring benefits is probably something worth looking at but I'm not sure immigration drives it.
EDIT: I agree on in work benefits as the taxpayer subsidises money to , often very large multinationals, who can then underpay their employees. we should not be in a position where those working FT on the minimum wage cannot achieve a reasonable standard of living without a state top out to evade poverty.
How we reach this point i am less sure.
No they come here to work this notion is largely a myth but it will be true for perhaps a thousand people in the UKcorrect me if I'm wrong, aren't some of them coming here because they get a better deal on benefits than they get in their home countries?
Are ALL EU countries paying the same level of benefits to their people? I suspect not!
Of course not but we are fairly midling for the wealthier nations and its a myth that ours is the most generous - we have heard it said so often we dont know the truth
https://fullfact.org/immigration/uks-welfare-system-most-generous-europe/
we only top in all spending because the NHS is govt funded and not private funded as in most other countries. If you factor in this or look at total spending we are average
The middle ground that Horatio claims not to exist is the salaried, house owning, SMB business owner, mid level public sector employee etc who benefit more from interest rate cuts and corporation tax reduction than the pensioners and working poor - they as Blair demonstrated are the ones to bribe and threatened in equal measure
I just heard that my dad, an otherwise intelligent man with a phd, voted leave 'as a protest vote'. He didn't think for a second they'd actually win..words...fail...me
I'm presently working with an intelligent and competent bloke who did exactly this, for the same reason, and was then amazed when the leave lot won. When he told me this, I don't think I did a very good job at disguising my utter contempt for the total stupidity involved in doing something so incredibly self-destructively dense. The words 'utter', 'end'. 'you' and' bell' may have been uttered, but not necessarily in that order
I STILL WANT A ****ING PLAN! it's not an unreasonable request, what are we going to do no flowery global trade bollocks! What are we going to make, sell dig out of the ground and to whom exactly do we sell this phantom stuff so we can really give the exit voters a better future
The exit voters aren't getting a better future. At least not the poorer ones.
Jews fleeing Britain - must be due to Labour anti-semitism. Oh no ... just Brexit.
So this is trending on my Facebook feed:
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Followed by some comments from Brexiteers explaining that they were not racially motivated, that they were voting against the EU not against Europeans and they felt that the racist thing was an ungrounded slur from the Remain camp.
All in all a nice sentiment.
Somewhat undone by some of the other comments, such as:
We who voted to leave the eu did it for a reason and one of these reasons was to get out of this country all foreign immigrants so if you don't like it * off.But its ok for them to shout abuse and force there deceitfull hate full Islamic stone age cult on the real British !
How you expect patriotic English people to react to this ? Teresa May already says sharia law is good for uk...wtf...how is it good ? If we went to another country and put our religion and laws before their's, how you think the natives would react to that ? Don't preach about stuff you know
* all abouttell the muslins that
How come nothing said about Muslims attacking people is that ok
Stop confusing patriotism with racism. I want my country back, I do not want English to become a second language or churches to remove crosses to appease other RELIGIONS, not races.
*sigh*
The plan is to dick around talking bollocks for a while until the ongoing economic consequences are overwhelmingly clear to everyone, at which point whoever is left holding the hot potato will have a humiliating climb down on their hands.
The only risk is that some Tory zealot does something irreversible like invoke article 50 as some sort of demonstration of strength. At which point we are all royally ****ed for decades.
"The plan is to dick around talking bollocks for a while until the ongoing economic consequences are overwhelmingly clear to everyone, at which point whoever is left holding the hot potato will have a humiliating climb down on their hands."
This, although it might or might not be done in a slightly more slick way.
I got a job in Sweden and my kids have free nursery, free school meals, health care, excellent public transport. Thanks eu freedom of movement.
What do you do GEDA?
Good news for you GEDA :
[url= http://www.thelocal.se/20160627/poll-sweden-wants-to-stay-in-eu-after-brexit-vote ]Poll: Sweden still wants to stay in EU after Brexit vote[/url]
Although exactly the same pollsters claimed 4 weeks earlier :
[url= http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/poll-majority-of-swedes-want-to-leave-eu-in-case-of-brexit/ ]Poll: Majority of Swedes want to leave EU in case of Brexit[/url]
So who knows what they'll come up with in another 4 weeks?
Have we done the 245-2 commons motion to allow EU nationals too stay in the UK?
It is at least decisive - although (wait for it) non-binding
"The plan is to dick around talking bollocks for a while until the ongoing economic consequences are overwhelmingly clear to everyone, at which point whoever is left holding the hot potato will have a humiliating climb down on their hands."
Probably the best strategy.
Unless they need another Referendum, in which case the retarded / racist masses will probably still vote out, as they'll be now blaming their new found unemployment / destitution on Romanians for 'tricking' them into voting out the first time round.
Have we done the 245-2 commons motion to allow EU nationals too stay in the UK?It is at least decisive - although (wait for it) non-binding
"Acquired rights".
Who were the two?!
Probably my MP was one of them. He's a horrible nasty, bigoted, rabidly anti-EU, racist, homophobic Tory ****!!!
Junior now has a French Bac and a German Abitur, the vision lives on in some places.
When he told me this, I don't think I did a very good job at disguising my utter contempt for the total stupidity involved in doing something so incredibly self-destructively dense.
Same here - got a London-born and -bred freelancer who did the same thing working for me. He came in on Friday and couldn't understand that nobody else in our company had done the same thing. Because we're not idiots. He won't work for us again but I'm sure he'll find work easily enough in the brave new world he voted for. I'm only slightly regretful because I lent him my umbrella to get home in Thursday's storms.
Don't know who the two were, but Johnston and Carswell were in the 245.
[I]Don't know who the two were, but Johnston and Carswell were in the 245. [/I]
Two folk protesting about something not connected to the vote? 😉
Congratulations Edukator.
Thanks, I'll pass on your kind words, Nipper.
Did Alex Salmond vote ? He said earlier in the week we should NOT give Europeans the right to remain, I am guessing as a negotiation stance ?
DC didn't vote.
[quote=Tom_W1987 ]Migration is based on an equilibrium of push and pull factors. Why do you assume that people would want to travel to an economy in recession, so they can get their foot in the door, when they could go to Germany instead - and have no worries about their future.
What a great point - why has everybody else missed that? So in order to limit immigration we just have to have a recession. Brexit has provided us with a recession. QED.
binners - MemberProbably my MP was one of them. He's a horrible nasty, bigoted, rabidly anti-EU, racist, homophobic Tory ****!!!
Did you vote for him?
The net contribution of migration may be positive but the benefits are largely realised by buisenesses and the shareholders who are buffered from the costs born by people already at the pointy end of life.
Its inequality caused by succesive right wing goverments who are really just agents of business and an ineffective opposition which long ago stopped representing average joe.
Britain (well England) needs some decent leadership but there is none on the horizon. At the moment whilst we have some respect for tackling the problem, our approach and chaotic outcomes are making us a laughing stock.
Did you vote for him?
Hazard a guess? 😉
He's sat on a huge majority of 120 votes (which went to 2 recounts). Most of the people I know find him an absolute embarrassment. [url= https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/30/tory-mps-filibuster-blocks-bill-to-give-carers-free-hospital-parking ]This is one of his prouder moments[/url]. He tabled a private members bill to bring back hanging, and he voted against gay marriage as he's a hardcore christian headbanger who believes its a sin against god. It kind of goes without saying he strongly campaigned for Leave.
I often wonder who voted for him. But if you sit at the bar in my local (which I, like a lot of people, won't go in any more) you can listen to the delightful local inbred ****-wits blaming the ills of the country on '****'s', '****s' and 'Queers'.
While you're hazarding guesses on voting patterns, take another wild stab in the dark about how they all voted in the referendum? These are the very people - nasty, bigoted unapologetic racists - who's votes were actively courted by Johnson, Gove and co, and now feel their views have been legitimised, and represent the acceptance by the mainstream
So well done on that Brexiteers! Take a bow, and join us all in a rousing rendition of 'SEND THEM BACK...." as we hurtle back to the 1970's
So well done on that Brexiteers! Take a bow, and join us all in a rousing rendition of 'SEND THEM BACK...." as we hurtle back to the 1970's
Literal quote from the aforementioned "Leave are not racists" FB post:
"Exactly why are they being allowed to live here they should be kicked out and their families.
...
When do we start kicking them out"
😕
Incidentally, since most of the anti-immigration focus seems to be on "the Muslins", do we have any numbers on how many Muslims have actually come the UK through EU migration compared to non-EU migration, refugees, asylum seekers etc?
i.e. will leaving the EU actually do much to address their perceived "Muslim problem"?
I'm not in a very diverse area here, but I think most of the Muslims we know are from non-EU countries.
@binner appreciate all that but don't you think we should address current issues without inflaming the situation with further uncontrolled immigration and EU expansion ? This is a known problem which has been swept under the carpet for years, now its blown up in our faces.
So as the UK voted Leave - do we have to ban anyone not living in the UK from contributing to this thread?
Do ex-pats have to be repatriated?
appreciate all that but don't you think we should address current issues without inflaming the situation with further uncontrolled immigration and EU expansion ?
What if the issue is only an issue as it's being blown out of proportion and used as a political tool? In other words should we be doing what the racists want as opposed to what is right?
"since most of the anti-immigration focus seems to be on "the Muslins""
I don't think this is true.
I don't have figures but I'm pretty sure the vast majority of incomers are from Europe and the same race as "Native" English people. (Native is, itself, nonsense because we're all mixed race really but I can't think of another way to say it.)
I don't think this is true.
Just going from what I've heard anecdotally. Every single negative comment on that FB post was directed towards Muslims.
Granted I've also seen a fair bit of anti Eastern European stuff, particularly directed towards Poles. But I've not (yet) seen anyone saying we need to deport French/German/Italian/Spanish citizens.
I should clarify I'm talking here about the drooling racist "anti-immigration focus" - not the more general concern over immigration control.
"Every single negative comment on that FB post was directed towards Muslims"
That's just your circle of friends. I've seen and heard none of that. Although I did hear Brown have a pop at non EU immigration, but that was as an attempt to deflect attention away from EU immigration.
That's just your circle of friends.
No, I don't know anyone on that post - it was a public post from
Similarly the post-referendum marches through Newcastle by EDL/Northen Infidels/National Front seemed to heavily focussed on send Muslims home.
I've seen and heard none of that.
Go have a read of it - though you won't like what you find 🙁
I'm afraid that most of the 'immigration concerns' I saw could be summarised as 'stop beardy, shouty, explodey murdery rapists coming here!' Not that I'm suggesting for a second that the leave campaign encouraged that thinly veiled racist perception in any way, obviously....
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Granted I've also seen a fair bit of anti Eastern European stuff, particularly directed towards Poles. But I've not (yet) seen anyone saying we need to deport French/German/Italian/Spanish citizens.
There's been a ton of stuff in the media directed at Polish people, Romanians, etc. You are right though, I can't recall anything negative in the general media towards French/German/Italian/Spanish citizens which seems to highlight that the common conception of "the immigration problem" is directed towards people who aren't [i]quite[/i] similar enough to "us" not being welcome.
Were Italians not the largest or second largest group of EU nationals coming to the UK? I don't know the exact numbers but it isn't as though it would make any difference to a lot of people's perceptions of immigration anyway
I heard farage was going to move onto other real world issues like giants and things that go bump in the night.
A lot of the anti muslim stuff is from your standard Britain First douchebag
Vote Leave were more than happy to count on their votes, court them with lies about Turkish immigrants and rely on them to mobilise the vote in certain areas
and yet wash their hands of any responsibility when it comes to the poisonous legacy of their propaganda
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36513022
(yes, we all know that not all 52% were raving racists, but I refer you to Billy Brag)
There was a plan after all.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiters-excuses-increasingly-bollocks-20160707110366
Incidentally, every time I see that "Breaking Point" picture my eye is drawn to the white bloke in the bottom right, possibly wearing a police vest, who for some strange reason got covered by their logo:
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And of course the startlingly similarity to this:
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