proving doomsday forecasts wrong
Worst case forecasts are nearly always wrong. Doing better than the "doomsday" forecasts does not mean that forecasts as a whole were wrong.
Would you agree that the performance of the UK economy was helped by better than expected growth in our main export markets? And that currently we are yet to change how we trade with those countries?
It’s not the OBR true. It is meant to be independent not a mouthpiece for Osbornes propaganda
the “forecasts” were wrong. Very wrong. We lied in order to influence the vote. And it didnt work. Fortunately the economy was more resilient than the forecasts
It is meant to be independent not a mouthpiece for Osbornes propaganda
He's gone. What about analysis done since the referendum? Is that "lies"?
the “forecasts” were wrong. Very wrong. We lied in order to influence the vote.
Nope.
Check the OBR reports comparing predictions with actuals… "judgements were broadly on track."
I’m not defending leavers lies, just pointing out the hypocrisy of our side doing the same now.
When you say things like...
Not even close to the lies our side put out.
... you kind of are.
... our economy is growing below LT trend (as you would expect) but better than expected and proving doomsday forecasts wrong
In comparison, how much has Turkey joined the EU, over the same timescale?
The REAL big hitters join the debate...
https://www.mumsnet.com/politics/seven-out-of-ten-mumsnet-users-want-vote-on-brexit-deal
It must be difficult to keep a straight face while posting about official "doomsday" forecasts on the one hand and official "24.4% GDP growth" forecasts on the other.
Of course, it's possible that one or the other is made up.
Or both, even.
Turns out Mumsnet have managed to sum up how Brexit is going quite well:
I envisaged jobs, travel and opportunity, not having a potato delivered by the army.
Forecasts and models always have some issues.
By and large the general predictions on the negotiation challenges and the loss of business have been true. There have been losses from the city to Europe there would not have been if we had remained, these will only be clear middle of next year, there will be a devastating effect on the pharmaceutical industry as can already be seen by the change of the UK from lead regulator to observer, we have lost the EMA and other key agencies, many businesses are extremely worried about the introduction of customs paperwork and the loss of their skilled European workforce...
Probably the most worrisome thing is that there has yet to be a single positive projection from the leave side.
It is widely accepted that the economy will perform worse and that we will need to pay more for everything (research, health, food etc.) for at least the next 10 years...
Blue passports! Even if they are French. Surely that's a positive.
Don't see how brexit can't not be negaty effecting the economy, pharma, car manufacturers, freight hauliers, food industry NHS, government themselves all said they are spending £billions to prepare for brexit
THM has spent time withing on it, in sure his hourly rate is not inconsiderable 😉
This money & effort could all have been invested in business or actually fixing the real problems the country faces.
To top it all off the deal we end up with will make no one happy!
the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated
So we are in a situation where even the uncertainty is doing 2/3 of the damage predicted for actually leaving - and you are presenting that as positive? Insane.
Also THM, there is a massive moral difference between a forecast and a lie. If you can't grasp this then you certainly aren't someone I'd do business with.
The feeling is mutual. If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters. I wouldn’t want to do business with people like that either
blinkers won’t change the result
Which lies are you referring to, THM? Can you give us some examples please?
Go on THM - what lies were told by the remain side?
so far everything I have seen predicted has happened or is going to happen bar the big increase in unemployment and there are other rasons for that ( assult on benefits, risse in part time / insecure work)
Lets just list some of the adverse effects so far - and we haven't even left yet.
Massive damage to our pharmaceutical industry
Massive recruitment issues in the NHS
Lots of finance jobs going - yes its proven and all available - your denial of this shows your ignorance
Loss of inward investment on a huge scale, manufacturers like airbus pulling out of the UK
Billions spent on Brexit that could have been spent on useful stuff
Big hit to GDP
Etc etc
So go on - where are the lies from the remain side?
The REAL big hitters join the debate…
and if mumsnet don't get to vote on it, the language will be dreadful.
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave. Quoted many times *
HM T and BoE made to look more than a little silly and less and less independent.
If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters.
Who are "we" … are you referring to the previous Conservative government? That summary I posted from their propaganda pamphlet seems pretty spot on. We did "know what we were voting for" after all… except, of course, it was all dismissed as "project fear" by the political smart Brexit campaign leaders, or, indeed, "lies" by those prone to hyperbole when posting things on the internet.
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave.
Worst case predictions about what could happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave, I think you mean. Gov publications had a range of outcomes, and were broadly correct (see OBR reports). Loudly shouting about the worst case predictions at one end of the scale is like Boris claiming that comments on security and stability were threatening WWIII if we Leave.
Bit of a warm up for what is to come
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/import-tax-from-australia/
THM - what lies are those? go on - be specific because everything predicted has happened so far and remember - we have not left yet and its only in the last month or two that the realisation that no deal is possible with May at the helm has become appraent
so go on. lets see the quotes from the treasury and BoE that have not come true. Put up or shut up
Oh please. Go back to the kilfile.
I think we can all agree there were claims from both sides that were designed to scared the populace. While the extremes have not come true there are currently more negatives than positives.
from what we have already lost it will take tens if not hundreds of billions to get us back to the 2016 point. Be this the new gps system or the recreation of a new medicines agency, staffing, reputation building then implementation. All this with an economy that is predicted to perform worse.
in order to do this the country needs to radically change. If I am honest copying the American or EU model probably won’t work. The only way I could see to quickly generate that kind of change would be to go to the old school 5 year plan method. Hey on the plus side there would be no debts to worry about but on the downside you would lose your savings property and shiney things. Again on the plus side is everyone would be equal and employment guaranteed...
but to be serious we ****ed. Generations will have to have less in order to stabilise the country and I don’t think there is the stomach for significant change
I think THM is being disingenuous here and playing semantics, in much the same way as the people who said the sign on the bus "didn't really mean the NHS would actually GET any extra money". Saying that something negative will happen if "you vote leave", in no way implies that those effects will happen immediately after the vote, but rather, they may happen following the "leave event" that is the result of the vote. And since we have not reached that event then not a single prediction made has yet to have any validity. So let us stop with the arguing about what may or may not be happening as a result of the vote, and just look at all the positives* that have occurred so far, and how those trends may continue when we do actually leave...
*or not as the case may be 🙂
So THM - you have nothing to back your assertions? What a suprise.
being disingenuous here and playing semantics
100%
well Ive just had a walk down memory lane
if you look at random pages on this thread (change the page number in the web address ^^^)
most of the discussion here pre-vote was about £350m for the NHS-being BS,
a lot of Jamba saying we should trigger A50 immediately after the vote as we will have people queing up to make glorious deals,
Jamba warning about turkey joining
Jamba saying that our currency would not crash & infact be considerably higher 2 years after the vote & that Boris will become PM straight after bote (THM accusing him of bullshitting a lot!)
quite a bit of discussion about long term forecats treasury made saying 2-8% less GDP by 2030 (havent found any menytion of short term ones
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/55/
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/69/
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/100/
TJ you are the guy who claimed that GDP would fall by 4%, misunderstanding the data at best, misrepresenting it deliberately at worst, and you continue to argue that a movement of 1% of banking staff is a flood when it is nothign of the sort and you provided links that falsified your nHS arguments. So you stand high in the standings of the moaners who have to hide behind massive distortions of the truth to avoid accepting the result. On top of that you level charges at the leavers that were better directed at yS and Thor who attempted to reek havoc on Scotland. Double hypocrisy but not surprise
oh balls my linking skills are poor
anyway you get the idea, it was justa lot of jamba telling us it was all going to be brilliant
The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave. Quoted many times *
Point the first, "failing to accurately predict the future" and "lying" are not synonyms. Are all meteorologists lying when the weather forecast turns out to be incorrect?
Point the second, the economy did take a downturn - the pound plummeted the day after the ref - and the only reason it didn't crash as hard as predicted was because Mark Carney started printing money (which no-one anticipated). But you knew that of course, you're just being disingenuous. It's not like we didn't all discuss it to death a year ago or anything.
"Confirmation that the UK has voted to end its 43-year membership of the EU sent sterling down to a three-decade low on Friday morning.
The FTSE 100 plunged more than 8 per cent on opening in its biggest slump since the 2008 financial crisis, wiping £120 billion off the value of the 100 biggest UK companies.
Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays fell as much as 30 per cent on opening, before rebounding slightly to trade at 16.7 per cent, 18 per cent and 17 per cent in mid-morning trading."
What else have you got? Actual deliberate lies, rather than crystal ball stuff. I can think of two offhand, but you seem to be an advocate of doing your own research so off you go.
thm, you are the guy pretending that the govt forecast was for 24.4% growth, misunderstanding the data at best, misrepresenting it deliberately at worst.So you stand high in the standings of the brexiters who have to hide behind massive distortions of the truth to avoid accepting that brexit already is, and will continue to be, significantly damaging.
24.4% growth
That's an entirely realistic figure, given a long enough time span. How long that takes will depend very much on what our new relationship, with what is currently our home market, becomes. Hard choices still to make. And then you need to get a mandate for your decision… …if you like to shout about democracy. Close or distant relationship; and all the trade offs wrapped up in that decision… no more quoting the growth that EEA+CU would enable, while also promising the autonomy that a Canada style deal could allow.
Both sides exaggerated, the Government publicized a worst case scenario. Leave used gross figures.
Any economic model should take into account possible mitigating courses of action so the prospect of money printing should have been anticipated - not to do so is a fundamental flaw.
FX rates and share price movements do not necessarily cause a reduction in economic activity - FX rates are a safety valve and in this context share prices recovered so quickly there would not have been any significant impact.
the Government publicized a worst case scenario.
True, but they published a whole range of scenerios. To say 'we're doing better than the worst case scenario" is to ignore that the predictions were "broadly corrrect"… and we have to admit that other like and close ecomomies did much better than predicted, in the same period.
[ Of note, one area where predictions were out, was job numbers (hurrah), you'd need a whole new thread to look at why that might be, but it's one area where "not as bad as predicted" is entirely justifiable. Still not a "lie" though. ]
Now, which new relationship to pick?
What are the government's most recent predictions based on that relationship, and how reliable might they be?
Do the "people" support that new relationship, over retaining EU membership?
Will the EU be on side with that new relationship?
How long will it take to transition to that relationship, and how do we pay for it?
To say ‘we’re doing better than the worst case scenario” is to ignore that the predictions were “broadly corrrect”
It's hardly something to be boasting about, either.
point is the shambles of government we have seen post vote has turned many against it
if Osbornes worst case scenario had been proved right, (ie liquidity crisis as in 2008) im sure itd be a great many more against it, wonder what the government would be doing in that scenario?
Citye THM I never said that about the economy, I told the objective truth about the NHS as the data I supplied shows. Already its far more than 1% of bankers involved in finance in the EU that have been announced to be leaving and many more will go
so actually wrong on all counts. Stop lying
If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters.
Ok, so remain lied. Whatever. Not really an issue now is it?
Let's move on.
Stop lying
And you stop goading with inflammatory language.
Kelvin, that 24.4% was supposed to be over 15 years in contrast to 25% without brexit. Whether or not the number is reasonable is not really the point, it's whether the govt forecast it or not. Hint: not.
Maths problems aside… that was based on SM+CU, which is now, apparently, not the Brexit we voted for, and a betrayal of the people… so an odd scenario to chose to base your figures on anyway.
Don’t worry about internet bullies mol. Read, smile, ignore.
if people move on then yes it isn’t an issue. What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote. That ignores that we did to. And did you see the Scot referendum?Talk about lies, lack of planning, and economic self harm.
What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote.
Is that better or worse than supposed remainers who are actually turncoats and meekly accept their fate? It's a shame the right wing have dibs on the term "cuck".
The meek sit, lie and moan. The strong accept, prepare and move on. Everyone has a choice.
Isnt scab better that turncoat?!?
last quote from peston which is for some balance
Right now, the humiliation of the doomsaying ‘experts’ has lured the UK into a fool’s paradise, where the real long-term risks and costs of leaving the EU are dismissed as the rantings of pro-EU nutters, rather than the real and present dangers we would be wise to debate and seek to mitigate or navigate around.
