I don’t understand.
Clearly not.
All the brexiters are racists
No. Just that is someone is a racist its a fairly safe bet they are a brexiteer as well.
Even some of the racists leave voters must have realised that brexit is a shitshow that's not worth the hassle
They've probably also started to notice that the brexiteers are charlatans who don't have a freaking clue how to make it work
Surely a second ref will have the same result?
It wouldn't be a re-run. It'd be a vote on the deal, or lack thereof. So:
Should the UK leave the EU with no deal?
That would have a different answer. I think a lot of the less looney Brexiteers were banking on the deal being easy, I think far fewer people want to crash out without a deal than voted out.
Brexit Has Already Cost U.K. More Than 2% of GDP, UBS Estimates
“to put that 2.1 percent cumulative decline in real growth into context, that’s roughly a quarter to a third of the total Brexit costs estimated in the most pessimistic assessments done prior to the EU referendum and almost equal to the full costs of some of the more optimistic assessments,” wrote UBS analysts including Pierre Lafourcade. “But the U.K. has not even left the EU yet!”
Kelvin, I think you will find that we never really had the cash in the first place....
No. Just that is someone is a racist its a fairly safe bet they are a brexiteer as well.
Alot of the anti-semites seem pretty keen on remain.
Brexit Has Already Cost U.K. More Than 2% of GDP, UBS Estimates
THM can you comment on this?
anti-semites
Squirrels !!
keen on remain
Name some of these squirrels please…
All the brexiters are racists
No, they are not.
No it hasn't
Alot of the anti-semites seem pretty keen on remain.
How many do we have or is this an update from high command?
Just look at the Labour's Problems thread and cross refer.
“Do your own research.”
It's OK I have been Mefty, I'm amazed none of you had spotted this thing years ago, after all you care about this don't you
But this is certainly not a distraction is it
You would be all over any kind of racism wouldn't you?
It's late (in France) and can't be bothered to read whole article - but OBR expects U.K. to grow by 1 6%, our LT average is approx 2.5% so the headline (after a long day climbing and copious wine) seems improbable. Will look at what my old mates are saying in the morning.
another report of th study suggest that their Frankenstein model suggests that the UK economic growth could have been 100 basis points higher i.e. Above LT growth which given where we are in the U.K. Cycle seems to fail a basic reality check. Need to verify what they mean by cumulative too, but not now!!
(bob time you had a word with the deadly one. More appropriate)
It’s late (in France) and can’t be bothered to read whole article
Lol if one post undermines your entire analysis that was it....
Lol if one post undermines your entire analysis that was it….
Plus taking time out of a holiday to post on here about. Cringemeter off the scale
intrigued but tired, a little extra reading produces this which of course will not be reported by shows the value of independent research. Their report goes on to say
UBS' economists also noted that the impact of the Brexit vote on U.K. businesses has not been as dire as expected.
"As is natural for anyone driving towards a cliff — in this case U.K. firms likely facing a sharp increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers — one would expect them to start hitting the brakes: i.e. scale back employment and investment decisions as uncertainty mounts. But unemployment (4 percent) just nudged down to its lowest level since 1974, wage growth is increasing and gross fixed capital formation bounced back resolutely in the second quarter from its first quarter weakness," they said.
"Although many other data look decidedly lackluster, the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated," they added.
and the headline and nonsense reported on the UBS study..?!?
Chin up ...
Holiday or no holiday, it's (a) important to keep on top of what is ACTUALLY going on and (b) to have a laugh reading doomsday BS. The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
Quelle surprise.
So still negative then, right?
it’s (a) important to keep on top of what is ACTUALLY going on and (b) to have a laugh reading doomsday BS. The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
By not reading things, damm no wonder the banks pay you so well...
Of course this will not have any impact on the UK
As posted on the last page
Not really, it's an artificial model applied in an artificial way that creates a headline that seems implausible. The bit I quoted rejected their own cliff analysis and indicates how resilient the U.K. Economy has been. That's just basic facts not an artificial model. You can chose which bit to focus on.
Unlike you mike, I will probably get a copy of the report and actually read it - even bothered to google it myself instead of relying on inaccurate spoon feeds. But you are showing just how ironic bobs complaint was. Well done you make a fine double act, or should,that be triple?
and the impact of medical research etc?
(knock on our companies, knock on out universities, knock on education, knock knock knock....)
has not been as dire as expected
Looks to be at the worse end of the range of predictions, no…? But not as bad as the worst case predictions made. So far. Worst case predictions are precisely that… they are not the most likely, or the most representative. The report also make pains to point out how the surprise high growth in like and close economies has helped reduce the damage at home. So far. We're still trading with them on the same terms.
Unlike you mike, I will probably get a copy of the report and actually read it
Just post a link so we make sure we are reading the same thing, it's really easy I do it with my colleagues several times a day, I left a little guide on the last page Ctrl C, Ctrl V
has not been as dire as expected
Is a phrase often used about a bout of gastro
Not even close to the lies our side put out. Note the bregudging way UBS admits the same thing
UBS' economists also noted that the impact of the Brexit vote on U.K. businesses has not been as dire as expected. To repeat:
But unemployment (4 percent) just nudged down to its lowest level since 1974, wage growth is increasing and gross fixed capital formation bounced back resolutely in the second quarter from its first quarter weakness," they said.
"Although many other data look decidedly lackluster, the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated," they added.
Yes let's not talk about the Titanic success that is brexit.
the lies our side put out
Who is our side?
has not been as dire as expected. To repeat:
In other news the Titanic sinking was not as bad as it could have been
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic
Some people didn't drown
and the impact of medical research etc?
But that's nothing to do with bankers, so of no concern.
Even some of the racists leave voters must have realised that brexit is a shitshow that’s not worth the hassle
It won't be many of them. Hate of foreigners is very strong and prioritises most other concerns.
Like banking, interesting to see who the ultimate losers are. Even the guardian didn't airbrush:
Thompson suggested the removal of the MHRA from the approvals system was the EU’s loss. The MHRA did one-third of all the manufacturing inspections and in terms of patient safety they had picked up one third of all “adverse events”. He said: “This is a pre-eminent regulator. As part of the withdrawal agreement the UK regulator ... they will just be an observer in that system.”
Cut of your nose....
Not even close to the lies our side put out.
I've got to take issue - the whole "Remain Project Fear" thing gets referenced a lot on here and social media and I usually let it slide, but to suggest Remain was less truthful than Leave is shocking. I'd be extending a conciliatory hand if I agreed that Remain exagerrated but all their claims were based on likely outcomes of Brexit (loss of trade, international standing, etc) - in contrast to 350 million for the NHS/Turkey joining/EU army outright bullshizzle.
Thompson suggested the removal of the MHRA from the approvals system was the EU’s loss.
Yes, in much the same way that banking and manufacturing moving to the continent is a disaster for the EU.
The Eu briefing paper admits that banking developments would also harm the EU. The ultimate losers are EU corporates (and households). Lower supply, higher price of finance
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it. We are no better that the leavers whole lied too in that case
Get you hand out, they were exaggerated and deliberately so with the appalling pressure on the treasury to lose its independence
that is what is so galling about the moaning side - the hypocrisy of all the new lies and distortion of the truth with the objective of misinforming those who cannot/will not to their own research and subverting the democratic process.
How does anyone know the Tories weren't going to screw the economy without Brexit?
What else did UBS day;
The economy is already 2pc smaller than it would have been without a vote for Brexit, according to research by UBS released on Monday.
The bank’s calculations also estimate thatinvestment is 4pc lower and consumption 1.7pc....
Still, “to put that 2.1 percent cumulative decline in real growth into context, that’s roughly a quarter to a third of the total Brexit costs estimated in the most pessimistic assessments done prior to the EU referendum and almost equal to the full costs of some of the more optimistic assessments,” wrote UBS analysts including Pierre Lafourcade. “But the U.K. has not even left the EU yet!”
They argue that this effect has gone relatively unnoticed so far as it was masked by the uptick in the global economy, which helped to buoy the UK.
And you can see that UBS analysis in not quite what is reported. They constructed a hypothetical model based on characteristics of other countries to create an assumption on where the U.K. “might” have been. Hence the term Frankenstein to describe the model. Unsurprisingly the headlines don’t tell the whole story
a hypothetical model
Lovely. What kind of model would you rather use?
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it
Whio are "our side"?
the appalling pressure on the treasury to lose its independence
The Treasury is not the OBR.
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it. We are no better that the leavers whole lied too in that case
You think there's an equivilance between predictions with a basis in fact and outright lies?
They constructed a hypothetical model
What model was used to claim that the NHS would benefit from 350m a week, or that Turkey would join the EU?
I’m not defending leavers lies, just pointing out the hypocrisy of our side doing the same now.
This is not a typical model. Instead a very artificial exercise hence its name.
Forget models, at the end of the current elongated cycle our economy is growing below LT trend (as you would expect) but better than expected and proving doomsday forecasts wrong. Europe is also slowing but not collapsing (despite European share prices)
Some more links that may be useful:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Concern_troll
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/concern_troll
