[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

We have a bump in the road to get over but the future is now much brighter.

What could possibly go wrong.....?

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Has our glorious leader been called before the STW select committee to answer questions yet?

We have a bump in the road to get over but the future is now much brighter.

You're optimising is impressive but based on what? Your glorious leaders are turning on each other topped off with the fact that none have got a feking clue what to do next!

You need a bit more than blind bloody hope to fix the mess your bunch have created!

What's the fing plan Stan?!

just thinking earlier, if we assume the earliest that Article 50 can be triggered is 2017, that gives till 2019 to negotiate a way out. in 2020 there is a General Election.

IF it all goes well then i can see the Tories winning in 2020, however if the economy goes to pot, and all models do seem to point at a downturn. Then who will get the blame? the Tories???? Push comes to shove will people think oh well no pain no gain, or will they lash out at the Tories???

So would any short term politician actually trigger something that might screw their chances for the next election?

No, once A50 is triggered there is probably no taking it back (weird legal advice in some parliamentary document notwithstanding). Which is why it can't be triggered before there's a cast-iron agreement in place.

Push comes to shove will people think oh well no pain no gain, or will they lash out at the Tories??

Which is why it can't be triggered before there's a cast-iron agreement in place.

But the EU say they won't talk til it's triggered. Catch-22.

Nice to hear an economist having a different view to Mark Carney.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0402gk5#play ]Radio 4 interview[/url]

Nice to hear an economist having a different view to Mark Carney.

We don't listen to experts, remember?

The 'expert' is not exactly neutral and came across as a boorish unpleasant man.
"I'll be happy to come back in a year and gloat"

Classy

C4 news just now has a piece about Australian treatment of refugees. A lovely role model for Brexiters. Watch if you have a strong stomach.

But the EU say they won't talk til it's triggered. Catch-22.

the future is now much brighter

flanagaj - Member 
Nice to hear an economist having a different view to Mark Carney.

Radio 4 interview

POSTED 44 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

He isn't really. He is just being an arse. But covered in the other thread,

Gove says in the standard "last week's referendum voting had exposed the existence of "two Britains", one that made money from globalisation, and another whose people felt they were "flotsam and jetsam in its powerful flow"

Sounds like he has more empathy and perception that most of the people on this thread...

Global Trumpism :

quite amusing as well as pertinent :

Sounds like he has more empathy and perception that most of the people on this thread...

Talk is cheap. IDS says similar things. Let's see how that translates into action.

Sounds like he has more empathy and perception that most of the people on this thread.

We don't listen to experts, remember?

These aren't experts they are business people who's job it is to make money. Plenty of opportunity. Big business (ie the CEO) likes the EU for tax avoidance and downward pressure on wages,

C4 news just now has a piece about Australian treatment of refugees. A lovely role model for Brexiters. Watch if you have a strong stomach.

Well aware of the Aussie model, they felt they had to do something to stop the flow. They apply the law aggressively, no babies born in Oz if possible. Remember the EU stopped paying / providing Navy support in the Med and look what happened 100's and 100's drowning

Med and look what happened 100's and 100's drowning

And this didn't correlate at all with the Syrian civil war...?

My girlfriend's mother announced tonight that she voted leave because an eastern European man randomly asked my girlfriend's sister to marry him one day in a shop. Apparently "they" can't be trusted

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So 200 and something posts in and this guy is bang on the money. So let's see what the wanna be Conservs and copy and posters of STW have to say : ))

BoardinBob - Member
My girlfriend's mother announced tonight that she voted leave because an eastern European man randomly asked my girlfriend's sister to marry him one day in a shop. Apparently "they" can't be trusted
POSTED 3 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Oh dear...yet another 'uneducated working class racist' this is starting to get tiring now listening to all the crying remainers. 🙄

grantway - Member
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So 200 and something posts in and this guy is bang on the money. So let's see what the wanna be Conservs and copy and posters of STW have to say : ))
POSTED 10 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

That's the most sense grantway has ever made..

My girlfriend's mother announced tonight that she voted leave because an eastern European man randomly asked my girlfriend's sister to marry him one day in a shop. Apparently "they" can't be trusted

And this didn't correlate at all with the Syrian civil war...?

I was referring to those coming from Libya - EU cut funding for patrols and left Italy to try and manage alone. EU foreign policy has been a disaster not least in the Balkans, highly questionable over Ukraine and they had to be dragged kicking amd screaming into sanctions on Russia

Hold on, I seem to recall it was the UK government that scuppered the naval search and rescue in the Med back in 2014... so am not entirely sure you can blame the EU alone for that one!

EU foreign policy has been a disaster not least in the Balkans,

zippykona - Member
My girlfriend's mother announced tonight that she voted leave because an eastern European man randomly asked my girlfriend's sister to marry him one day in a shop. Apparently "they" can't be trusted

My mum voted out because her friend had a nigerian nurse be nasty to her in hospital.

My Daughter and her friends never voted being they thought the voting would be rigged by the Govenment to stay!

jambalaya - Member
And this didn't correlate at all with the Syrian civil war...?
I was referring to those coming from Libya - EU cut funding for patrols and left Italy to try and manage alone. EU foreign policy has been a disaster not least in the Balkans, highly questionable over Ukraine and they had to be dragged kicking amd screaming into sanctions on Russia

POSTED 23 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Should have just towed the boats/crafts back into the waters they came from
Eventually there be no boats/crafts. An ideal opportunity has been missed for these unfortunate souls. Is that the UN should have made another Country between no mans land IE between borders and they could of used the people and be payed to build/police/health etc and build infrulstructure rather than look as beggars for news reel.
Now we're ever they are will never be asserted but absorbed into Country's where they have no worth due to the qualifications of the Country's they are in, other than looked at as being scroungers

Jambalaya uses the EU turning a blind eye
To the atrocities in the Balkans as a reason to be out of the EU. As reprehensible as Srebenica is, the EU can learn from such a mistake. People like Jambalaya, far from hoping to help those in need, would rather there are as many borders between us and them as possible, to make them seem further away.
Don't pretend to know where the Balkans are. I find it very insulting.

@athgray I use it as an example of how totally dysfunctional the EU is. Frankly they've not made a decent job of anything important. The currency is a massive disaster, simply stellar if the F up department

My mum voted out because her friend had a nigerian nurse be nasty to her in hospital.

What was your mum's friend doing in Nigeria?.............it isn't even in the EU !

Question il like to raise is that apparently the pound is at an all time low low low to the Euro and it's all xhit bad. But 5 years back we purchased our place in Alicante at 1.18 Euro to the pound whilst in the Euro. And the pound is worth more now in this some what Disaster!

Because we have helped hit the euro too.
Check the dollar rate
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W

athgray - Member
Jambalaya uses the EU turning a blind eye
To the atrocities in the Balkans as a reason to be out of the EU. As reprehensible as Srebenica is, the EU can learn from such a mistake. People like Jambalaya, far from hoping to help those in need, would rather there are as many borders between us and them as possible, to make them seem further away.
Don't pretend to know where the Balkans are. I find it very insulting.

I believe he has this Mixed up with the UN

mikewsmith - Member
Because we have helped hit the euro too.
Check the dollar rate
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W
/p>

Lol Na it's just the money markets. Basically the same shit that we bailed out

I see your economic credentials there....
People are moving money out of volatile and risky places to traditional safe spots like usd. For a while the euro was the currency of choice now it's the US. It's a sign that both are weaker than they were a week ago due to uncertainty caused by brexit

I wouldn't bother, Mike. At least Jamba posts literate gibberish. Most of grantway's ramblings seem to be completely incomprehensible.

Meanwhile, God save the Queen....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/25/queen-cameron-eu-worth-fighting-for

mikewsmith - Member
I see your economic credentials there....
People are moving money out of volatile and risky places to traditional safe spots like usd. For a while the euro was the currency of choice now it's the US. It's a sign that both are weaker than they were a week ago due to uncertainty caused by brexit

POSTED 26 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Yep but a load of Rollocks really. I have many clients in the game and it's a game of risk/volatile in or out will just be the same. They say the longer the Pound stays strong, more the uncertainty of the Euro will become so a question of when maybe of roll reversal. Like I said before the Euro is propping up a lot of toxic debt un like the pound.

Good find zokes I e been trying to find a video of the mad as he'll intro from this week. Bit of a turn up for the UK to be the butt of the politics vote, an American guy said thanks last night as the world had at least paused laughing at the US screw ups.

Well, this is an inspiring choice, Loathsome Leadsom or the useless May:

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-article-pulled-telegraph-pressure-may-campaign/

grantway - Member
zippykona - Member
My girlfriend's mother announced tonight that she voted leave because an eastern European man randomly asked my girlfriend's sister to marry him one day in a shop. Apparently "they" can't be trusted
My mum voted out because her friend had a nigerian nurse be nasty to her in hospital.
[b]My Daughter and her friends never voted being they thought the voting would be rigged by the Govenment to stay![/b]

This. Totally! I have workmates 'uneducated working class racists' who didn't bother voting as they thought it would be rigged, all would have voted leave if they had. Imagine that being the case all over Britain.

Sadly for you DrJ you can't pay £3 to sabotage the election. Whoever the candidates where you would have had equal levels of derision. Looks very likely they will be the final two. May to take it based on experience and states-person qualitiies I think. Queue a hundred articles making comparisons to Thatcher and Merkel. Who knows by 2017 we may well have female leaders in UK, US, Germany and France

@grantyway the eurozone sovereign debt crises will make the 2008 credit crises and Argentinian default(prior largest) look like the merest hiccups.

Queue a hundred articles

Jamba - is English your first language? Just wondering.

Who knows by 2017 we may well have female leaders in UK, US, Germany and France

Reminds me of Gremaine Greer questioned on Springwatch by Chris Packham (well it's better than Question Time:
CP - Would the world be a better place if it was run by women?
GG - No.

@grantyway the eurozone sovereign debt crises will make the 2008 credit crises and Argentinian default(prior largest) look like the merest hiccups.

People have been predicting this for almost a decade now. I don't believe it anymore.

Jamba - is English your first language? Just wondering.

Keep focusing on the big issues DrJ. Crack on, really do.

As you wish - which will be the better leader - the racist or the incompetent?

Jambalaya- I've followed your comments all the way through this thread with great interest. There are 2 things that you allude to that I've not asked you much on, that form the basis of much of your opinions. And these are:

-the prediction that the Eurozone is about to go an imminent collapse- the sovereign debt crisis
-the EU's treatment of Greece

Obviously I've read much on both of these elsewhere, but I don't know that you've ever really given us your views.

This isn't some kind of baiting- I'm genuinely curious as much of what you say hangs on the first one. If you have time, please explain why you think this is going to be an issue.

thanks

Just read this about the rather glib 'we can just be ordinary members of the WTO'. Apparently it is one of those things that sounds much simpler than it is.

[url= http://http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit ]WTO article[/url]

Wasn't able to access that link, but here is one on a similar subject that explains why dealing with the EU and (say) Australia simultaneously post-Brexit will not be as simple as it's made out:

https://next.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/paul-ryan-brexit-trade-224878

Sorry, not sure why it didn't work - posting from mobile though.

In full:
http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

Basically, there's a lot of untangling from the EU to be done as it has a separate entity status within the WTO so the EU and the UK have to agree on percentage splits / tariffs and then the rest of the WTO has to agree by consensus. This cannot be a fast process.

I new that trade deal with Oz would save us...

Major Australian exports, 2014-15 (A$m)
Gold 583
Alcoholic beverages 376
Lead 311
Pearls & gems 294
Major Australian imports, 2014-15 (A$m)
Passenger motor vehicles 1,007
Medicaments (incl veterinary) 552
Pharm products (excl medicaments) 332
Printed matter 275

So if the UK can't retain some of it's car building (guessing by the cars seen here it's not many low end ones) and pharma jumps ship that could be crap for exports.

Spot on Thank you Klunk

@cody just seen that. There was a massive long thread about Greece where I posted a lot and got into some heated disagreements with some on here. Anyway;

Greece has not been "fixed" eurozone/EU have just delayed the envitable, they cannot pay back ever the €350bn of taxpayers money they have been given, they can't even pay the interest

Greece has technically been bust since 2010 when it admitted it had been hiding billions and billions of government debt and oublishing false figures. Basically the markets figured this out in advance and stopped lending. So the eurozone had a choice let it fail or rescue it. What they did was neither really, they (the eurozone governments) took over all the loans (handing banks etc a material loss) and agreeing a series of deals since then. But the truth is Greece cannot pay ever. So sooner or later the eurozone are going to have to offer Greece a deal (eg write off €200bn of debt - ie admit to their tax payers the money is lost) and/or Greece exits the eurozone. My point is at this time the rest of the overstretched eurozone, particularly Italy and Spain will need help and lots of it.

As for the EU's treatment of Greece they have forced "austerity max" on them when they really should have just confronted the issue they cannot pay and agreed a deal back in 2010 or sometime since, that deal may have been Greece exits the euro (possibly the EU) and then they can move on. All the eurozone is doimg is trying to buy time for themselves and at Greece's expense, as Greece wants to stay in the euro/EU they are stuffed.

As/when all of this blows up its going to be a huge mess.

Some interesting weekend press

Telegrapgh speculating Merkel may try and "retire" Junker, this would be constructive (terrible choice in the first place but that was her/Hollande's doing). He's certainly not the man to be around for Brexit, eurosceptic Austria and the longer he's there with his attitude the more likely is a win for Front Nationale or a defeat for Merkel at home.

Interesting discussion around Switzerland who in 2014 (?) passed a Referendum legally requiring the Government to end free movement. The EU has refused but come 2017 the government will be legally in breach of its obligation, so big mess. Some thing Brexit will make it more difficult for Switzerland to get what it wants but we soon could have a situation when UK, Switzerland and Austria (assuming Hofer wins and forces a new election) are asking for the same thing with elections in France likely to make it a major point too. AfD seem too far behind in Germany to be a threat but momentum builds quickly and they have a system of PR

@Clover (Loverpool EU Law Prof said much the same thing) another example of how we should never have gotten ourselves into this mess. The EU has relied on this strangulation to force it's agenda, they gamble that no-one would ever walk away. Like a boa-constrictor I said.

I think theres little doubt that this is still early days, and far too early to predict what is going to happen.

with Austria's election rerun coming up, and pressure for a referendum in other countries like Netherlands and Sweden mounting, both heading into the build up to an election cycle soon (as in Germany) I think that the Realpolitik could suggest holding back on article 50 and inviting them to the negotiation table with us as a block exit.

Quite right - who on earth called a referendum with absolutely no plan and noone to implement it? With 20 trade negotiators? That's just woeful. There was a lot of 'there's not enough thought through planning' in the Scottish referendum debate but it was ludicrously absent in our referendum. Forty years of legislation plus all the trade treaties is not trivial, you can't just click your heels together three times and magic a new set.

And another thing. I really don't think losing our right to freedom of movement is all that great either. I'm just about the only person in my family that hasn't worked in Europe at some point (both my parents and my brother now do, whilst my sister has but has returned).

The whole debacle is a step into a none too pleasant past, which is more than reminiscent of my childhood. Recession, fewer opportunities and racism. Can't say I'm keen.

I've been pretty dismayed by the attitude of some of the people I've spoken to

One guy I know voted to leave because "he didn't like the government spending money on a leaflet telling us to remain"

Quite a few people seem to think negotiating trade deals will be easy now 😯

How do you personally measure up on this wonderful Australian based points system if you want to work in Europe?
I'm qualified to do **** all and I'm too old to do even that.

around here a lot of farm land suddenly up for sale (large farms too) ? coincidence or a brexit related ?

One guy I know voted to leave because "he didn't like the government spending money on a leaflet telling us to remain"

😆

Brilliant !

I think I might use that one.

@Klunk farmers where generally pro-Leave so I doubt its related

[b]Thank You[/b] 😀

Vote Leave
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In 2008, the worst financial crisis since 1929 hit the world. The people who paid the bills were mainly those on P.A.Y.E. They are still paying. They are also paying the bills for the EU’s and the euro’s dysfunction. Meanwhile many with power and money who were responsible for the mistakes and were completely wrong in their predictions dodged their fair share of the bills and got rich out of the EU system. We spoke for those on P.A.Y.E.

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It is important that the Conservative leadership candidates accept that the vote must be respected. Both the leading IN candidate (Theresa May) and the leading OUT candidate (Michael Gove) have made clear that if they win they will respect the vote and deliver a new UK-EU deal. This could mean, among other things, democratic control of immigration policy. This could marginalise extremists and allow a fair, sensible, and humane new policy. It could mean new trade deals and new jobs. It could mean more money for health, education, and science.

But we cannot be sure it will happen. In particular, while there are many wonderful civil servants there are also many who regard our victory as a disaster. They will try to stop or minimise changes. Not all the candidates in the Conservative leadership campaign have shown an ability to deliver big changes in the face of civil service opposition. Many in Labour are in complete denial about the real state of opinion and the real problems of the EU. Few MPs have the skills needed to manage normal government departments - never mind the EU negotiation and complex problems that implementing the referendum result require. Many MPs are desperate to ignore any lessons from the referendum and go back to politics as usual. The situation is very worrying.

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TL:DR

Sounds like the leave propaganda machine is still in full swing. Nice to see that they have learned from their mistakes and make no mention of 350 million quid. Lots of conditional phrasing too. Just in case the experts were right after all and we've just performed one of the most spectacular acts of self-harm in history and they are worried someone could point the finger at their lies and dissembling.

Thanks Jamba, it made me laugh if nothing else.

@ Jamba: Let's start a movement to remove the corrupt, undemocratic and impotent powerbase that is Westminster. At its core must the interests of ordinary people; this can only work hand in hand with nationalism.
Let's call this visionary new movement National Socialism!

I could go back and dig up all the p.ss taking posts from when I revealed I was campaigning, but I won't.

Sadly the referendum was not legally binding as we would have liked it to be. As such we have to wait and see. Cameron said he'd execute Article 50 immediately but unfortunately I knew he wouldn't

As for the £350m p/week we'll have to wait till we are out before we are able to decide how we'll spend that. Most of that benefit will be decided by our government in 2020

Oi Jambalaya any chance you could respond to the comments on the New Social Class thread or is it too "complicated"

We want to thank all three of them too. They put their careers and reputations on the line.

They did that for sure and are now fully exposed for what and who they are.

Jambas, good luck finding the £350m. Odd to see that you are still using that lie when your leaders have already distanced themselves from it.

Its odd - the '£350m was a lie' is still getting thrown about by Remainers, but at the same time they are saying "what are the farmers going to do without their grants" and "what is going to happen to Cornwall and Wales without EU money" - when all of that money was, of course, paid for out of that £350m

So, it appears that Remainers want to pick and choose their Gross and Net figures when it suits them just as much as they whinge about the Leavers doing 😆

Poor attempt at a swerve there Ninfan. Its clear what Jambas said

As for the £350m p/week we'll have to wait till we are out before we are able to decide how we'll spend that.

And equally clear the it is complete BS. Not even the leaders try to pull that one off any more.