I think he prefers newspaper polls these days Captain, no idea which one as I have to Google them.
Yes. Are you still struggling with the maths? Sunday’s torygraoh - Jeremy Warner - makes the same point. Not sure is he’s an expert though. If not, should be ok to read
Not true drac. Seems only mefty and I bothered to look at the government website to understand the Africa news yesterday rather that post untruths instead. Quoting the GT was merely falsifying earlier misrepresentations of the truth
And quoted the gov survey earlier too (with its health warning) Missed out the bit in front of me now where they acknowledge that some forecasts suggest that we could see a 1.1% increase in GDP. The captain won’t like that...still he can just ignore it.
I read on the government website that we're going to see a 10% drop in GDP.
I'm not going to provide a link for that, of course. Do your own research.
No need I have their docs on the screen in front of me. Always do my own research - would be very dangerous to believe remoan untruths
one thing that is 1OO% sure they have not forecast a 1O% drop in GDP. We have discussed before whether you tell the truth or not. More evidence here...
I'm not struggling with the maths, I'm looking at the pretty picture on the Govt's own document which directly falsifies your fantasy. I'm sure you can google it.
No need I have their docs on the screen in front of me
Should be easy to post a link then....
Missed out the bit in front of me now where they acknowledge that some forecasts suggest that we could see a 1.1% increase in GDP. The captain won’t like that…still he can just ignore it.
No I'm very happy to see that they acknowledge uncertainty in the forecasts, with the figures ranging from +1.1 to -10% for the most optimistic EEA scenario (that the tories have of course ruled out with their silly red lines). "with a number of estimates clustered close to a 2% reduction".
So where did your 24.4% number come from then?
Even I'm getting bored of this bicker fest. Sort yourselves out FFS.
I'm off to argue about Fox Live Valve.
Indeed I posted their warnings pages back. But you are getting warmer. From their range of estimated you can see where the number comes from easily. Sounds like you are in the correct document. Independent research is fun isn’t it?
as a neutral observer 😉 itd be nice to see a link to said reports
There's a Tory Brexiteer on five live now saying that we all need to unite, get behind Brexit and be positive and optimistic!
Then she actually started a statement with, "this country won two world wars...."
Once again there were no details about anything we might unite behind to be positive and optimistic about (maybe another world war to win?), but that's just par for the course with these ****-wits! I just despair! These morons are actually wagging the Tory dog at the moment
Im assuming that THM still assumes that a deal will be struck?
Im not sure that May wasted too much time with lazy/vain/thick David Davis in the driving seat to give us a fighting chance at that
The brexit cost calculator for no deal, is huge, were already spending £100m or so on looking into a new GPS final cost ~£3bn & undoubtedly requiring help from Trump (SPACE FORCE!)
Stockpiling drugs to cost £2bn, Raab says customs set up £3.7bn, cost to business of no deal for customs up to £20bn (apparently) plus who knows what else?
all this spending sounds like its boom time for consultants, sadly the money should really be spent on repairing austerity's damage to the police, prisons, social care, redressing the apprenticiships collapse, training & education to find a way out of our productivity hole & dependence on immigrants & so on
You mean the "EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehall Briefing"? It can be found by googling that phrase. The pic on p16 (and for that matter p18) might be what you are looking for.
Mistaking a percentage point reduction in GDP as a percentage reduction in GDP growth (ie, confusing 25% -> 23% as 25% -> 24.5%) is the sort of mistake a newbie who had no experience or understanding of what these calculations mean or how they are done might make. The press coverage is sometimes a bit ambiguous in how they report it. But there is no ambiguity in the actual analysis about what is really meant. It's right there in black and white. Or simple diagrams, if you prefer.
Oh ok then
I don’t assume anything. Prepare for the worst (tick), hope for the best if a better strategy.
Looks like chances of no deal have increased. The EU will push us into a corner until the last moment and we shall see who blinks first. Given how split we are I expect that we will. So the mad caller has a point.
Once again there were no details about anything we might unite behind to be positive and optimistic about (maybe another world war to win?)
Perhaps that's their ultimate aim, once we have our "sovereignty" back!
Then she actually started a statement with, “this country won two world wars….”
Beautiful symptom of the problem, right there.
"This country" won the war. Us, the mighty Great Britain. **** yeah! No acknowledgement (and probably little knowledge) of the involvement of the Soviet Union, the US, China, France, Australia... No, we did it, all on our own.
This brexiter , 'close your eyes & think of blighty' tactic is wearing thin, which is why John Curtice saying the public now looking to favour a 2nd ref
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/a-question-of-wording-another-look-at-polling-on-a-second-referendum/
I think Raabs shambling performance trying to put a +ve spin on no deal didnt help, ultimately it leaves the government backed into a corner, theyll have to blink first assuming that Mogg doesnt come back from his summer hols all fired up & boots May out as we prepare to cede a big chunk of sovereignity to the EU
I don’t assume anything. Prepare for the worst (tick), hope for the best if a better strategy.
There is nothing wrong with assumption, working without assumption is a very rigid and detrimental way of thinking.
So long as you declare and understand assumptions they are very valid, like references.
Agreed. Making assumptions is not the same thing assuming something. In fact quite the opposite in this case.
How you going with references there...
Fine. You?
Sod your 2nd referendum on brexit/english nationalism vote, i want another scottish referendum vote on independence as the longer this brexit farce rumbles on, the more people in scotland are beginning to realise that the westminster parliament is not fit for purpose.
Said with a smidgeon of tongue in cheek healthy jesting btw.
Much better I've actually managed to include some in my posts, it's remarkably easy so we can all make the assumption you don't want to do it just to be awkward.
But back on target as public opinion moves are we being disrespectful to those who changed their minds and those who voted remain now? Is the government in danger or alienating over 50% of the population by failing to consult properly? At what level would.it be acceptable to stop and check people are on board with the current (poorly defined shit or bust) plan.
Are people qualified to vote on such a complex issue (same caveats BTW and 670 pages of untruths is better than a bus)
all this spending sounds like its boom time for consultants,
Im sure there’s a fair few of these delighted to profit from the misfortune of others.
Opportunities not to be missed once they’ve protected themselves.
Are people qualified to vote on such a complex issue (same caveats BTW and 670 pages of untruths is better than a bus)
Do you think they should be allowed to vote on something so complex?
(We can all answer questions with questions)
So, in the case of no deal being offered, what do we think will happen?
1. No deal exit
2. Govt is offered and accepts Norway/SM/CU option
3. Second ref with multiple options
4. Government scraps Brexit altogether
A log of will of the people chanting, some gammons exploding, JRM calling for his nanny and some more tissues.
Some posters will suggest we can only have 1 & 2 (or whatever 2 becomes)
3 or 4 will have serious momentum the more the fantasies evaporate.
Yes to mike - it was a brilliant exercise in exposing the weakness in the Indy case and proved how sensible Scots are. Shame about our version
1 to mol (since your question roles out 2)
You really think 1 over the others?
Do you think the govt deal will soften towards Norway style.or will the hardliners prevent it?
So, in the case of no deal being offered, what do we think will happen?
If that's the case we surely have only two options? Leave anyway and suffer the fallout, or don't leave and suffer the fallout. The existence or not of another referendum is irrelevant, and some other deal isn't an option because otherwise we wouldn't be in a "no deal" scenario (unless I've misunderstood what you're saying).
Your option 2) there is the least damaging Leave option, but it's utterly pointless. It won't please the remainers (because we've still left) or the leavers (because we're still in all those other things). It gains us literally nothing other than probably being the option where the government loses face the least. It makes less sense than a no-deal exit, if we're going for a BINO then we might as well remain and keep a seat at the decision-making table, no-one with half a brain can think this is a preferable option to either remaining or leaving fully.
4 hopefully.
Whichever flavour of government we have, its first duty is protection of its citizens (not that I believe in the concept of citizenship as we have it nowadays, but we are where we are) and not just militarily.
The mob will scream and shout for a while but, y’know, tough love and all that.
Would your 3 have multiple options on both sides or merely be a tool to split the leave vote. So cougs said IIRC that he wants to be a member of a reformed EU. What about people who want membership and joining the Euro, the unreformed version. Or this but only if Macrons reforms are delivered? Or those in the CMD club? All different positions and “assumptions”.
It would be unfair to simply split one side.
So cougs said IIRC that he wants to be a member of a reformed EU. What about people who want membership and joining the Euro. Or those in the CMD club? All different positions. It would be unfair to simply split one side.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think you're right. Suppose it had to happen sooner or later.
Another referendum would surely have to be a carbon copy of the previous one. Once we know the terms of whatever deal we are or aren't getting, this should be presented to the public and then the same question posed again, leave or stay. Offering multiple options on either side just splits the vote and adds confusion.
NB: I'm not advocating another referendum, I think it's a stupid idea. But it may be inevitable at this point.
Mistaking a percentage point reduction in GDP as a percentage reduction in GDP growth (ie, confusing 25% -> 23% as 25% -> 24.5%) is the sort of mistake a newbie who had no experience or understanding of what these calculations mean or how they are done might make. The press coverage is sometimes a bit ambiguous in how they report it. But there is no ambiguity in the actual analysis about what is really meant. It’s right there in black and white. Or simple diagrams, if you prefer.
This is assuming that GDP is actually the most important thing.
I'd be more concerned on balance of trade deficit and having it positive before worrying about GDP.... but hey ho.
NB: I’m not advocating another referendum, I think it’s a stupid idea. But it may be inevitable at this point.
It would take a concerted force of honesty from may/Corbyn and a leading brexiter to say the deal offered does not satisfy leave or remain, and that a no deal exit would likely lead to xyz consequences so remain is the only sensible option for the country to avoid immediate calls for a second ref, a strong polling for remain (ie leave know the boat has sailed)
The only bit I don't have faith in is the honesty of the leaders.
I mean how bad does not the end of the world sound?
2) I reckon itll be a fudged Norway option, with some extras thrown in from the EU, so that May can paint it as some sort of victory
but if we get 1, then 3 may happen, 4 wont happen
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
And one is a conviction politician who is therefore to be believed. So I’m told. The other is progressing towards delivering the mandate. Tried to pitch a sensible FTA but didn’t get the backing. So we get what we deserve.
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
One of which would be Theresa May, leading Remain campaigner pre-referendum, yes? Just clarifying which bits of "honesty" you're cherry-picking here.
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
Politicians going back on manifesto promises due to 'circumstances' would hardly be unprecedented, and refusing to do so could even be considered highly foolish.
Whichever flavour of government we have, its first duty is protection of its citizens
Why should they start now? Neither major party, once in power, has ever truly done that. They are hamstrung by short term myopia brought on by looking towards the next election.
honouring manifesto pledges?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-broken-being-promises-tories-10371384
Honesty?
both remainers
both respected the result
both now committed to ending our membership
both increased their share of the vote on this mandate
which bit do you need to cherry pick?
So kimbers - these people are not to be trusted on their word? Good job we had a referendum then. We heard from the people directly.
And one is a conviction politician who is therefore to be believed. So I’m told. The other is progressing towards delivering the mandate. Tried to pitch a sensible FTA but didn’t get the backing. So we get what we deserve.
That is cherry picking, you picked out Corbyn as a conviction politician as a way to characterise him and his views.
You neglect to specify what May is
Make a vague statement about mandates etc.
It's a punnet of grade A Cherries there.
Then the extrapolation of an election result where people voted for many things like kicking out the other side. Not everyone who voted tory or Labour supported Brexit and opinion polls show that currently with a majority who would not support that a number which is greater than the votes for Tory or Labour.
