Forum search & shortcuts

EU Referendum - are...
 

[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Posts: 11402
Free Member
 

Right now I strongly suspect that’s really a message of “my Brexit or Jacob Rees Mogg’s Brexit”

how can that be the message to brexiteers ? they already want JRM brexit and that would be "My brexit or a No deal brexit" So shes saying if you don't support me you'll get what you want to the rebels ?


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 5:21 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

Right now I strongly suspect that’s really a message of “my Brexit or Jacob Rees Mogg’s Brexit”

Klunk has it, a no deal brexit would see parliament step in very quickly, the evangelists demanding hard brexit are truly a minority.


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 5:34 pm
Posts: 15555
Free Member
 

It's either in or out.

In maintains the status quo, out is economic suicide. That's always been the reality, despite the political spin.


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 5:36 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Politicians are far cleverer than me, and perhaps I am being stupid, but does anyone think that the skull cracking at Chequers and the subsequent white paper would have been better done near the start of the process rather than close the end?


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 5:52 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

better done near the start of the process rather than close the end?

What a ridiculous idea that is, Davis would then have had something to discuss during his long lunches over there


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 5:56 pm
Posts: 11402
Free Member
 

but does anyone think that the skull cracking at Chequers and the subsequent white paper would have been better done near the start of the process rather than close the end?

we couldn't show our hand to the EU (even though they new exactly what we wanted from the start and it was really to stop the brexit wing of the tory party from going apoplectic). Every thing going on in government at the moment is for the benefit of the conservative party everybody else just **** rigjht off!


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 6:06 pm
Posts: 78537
Full Member
 

In maintains the status quo

That's the thing.  It doesn't have to mean that at all.  Remain could (and should) equate to "reform" rather than "do nothing."


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 6:08 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

That's the truly mad thing mike.  Davis has been doing something in his meetings with the EU for 18 months. He then eventually finds out his own sides position, he doesn't like it at walks. What has he been doing?

I imagine him dressed up as some sort of court jester in Brussels, with pointy shoes with bells on, and a pointy hat for Michel  Barnier to play hoopla on. (A bit like the scene with Francis Drake in Queenies  court in Blackadder II.)


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 6:16 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

That’s the thing.  It doesn’t have to mean that at all.  Remain could (and should) equate to “reform” rather than “do nothing.”

What I wanted to see was a remain being an all in vote and commitments for our MEP's to turn up at least...

 What has he been doing?

3 square meals, nice hotel and some air miles?


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 6:22 pm
Posts: 15555
Free Member
 

That’s the thing.  It doesn’t have to mean that at all.  Remain could (and should) equate to “reform” rather than “do nothing.”

With MEPs like farage actively working against the interests of the UK... Not likely.

We need UK MEPs that are actually prepared to do thier jobs, you know  maybe attend the odd meeting and parhaps make some arguments as opposed to doing nothing other than slag the EU off  and wonder why no one is talking to you any more


 
Posted : 15/07/2018 6:39 pm
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

So now the tory remainers are jumping on the 2nd referendum bandwagon along with the blairites. Much as I would love to reverse the decision, it's never going to happen. I have no idea why they think the result would be any different. But they want to compound the idiocy of giving the people a vote the first time round by giving them an opportunity to confirm it? Madness.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:23 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

 I have no idea why they think the result would be any different. But they want to compound the idiocy of giving the people a vote the first time round by giving them an opportunity to confirm it? Madness.

Well the last 2 years will have shed a few supporters, mostly through death and the rest may just realise it's not a protest vote.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:29 pm
 Del
Posts: 8284
Full Member
 

edit:

meh, what Mike said, more succinctly.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:30 pm
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

The vast majority of the idiots who voted for it last time are still out there and I see little evidence they've changed their mind. The main thing that fuelled the original yes vote was the people sticking two fingers up to the politicians because they felt they weren't being listened to and a new vote will simply confirm this. It'd be the easiest campaign in history. All Farage, JRM, Johnson et al will need to do is say 'we told you so'.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:42 pm
Posts: 91169
Free Member
 

The vast majority of the idiots who voted for it last time are still out there and I see little evidence they’ve changed their mind.

We don't need the vast majority to.  Just about 2% ish.

I now fully support a second referendum.  So should everyone else.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:49 pm
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

And if the idiots vote for a no deal brexit (they will), what then? I understand why some might think it's a good idea, to me though it just feels like playing russian roulette with the issue. What is required at this point in time is some dry, sober pragmatism from people who actually understand what's going on. You're not going to get that in another referendum.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:54 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

Well after 2 years they can present their vision, perhaps they can register to have their option on the ballot

Remain

JRM Version

BoJo Version

Corbyn Version

May Version

Farage version


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 1:59 pm
Posts: 8022
Full Member
 

What is required at this point in time is some dry, sober pragmatism from people who actually understand what’s going on

Sadly though for some of those people who understand what is going on there is no interest in pragmatism.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:02 pm
 igm
Posts: 11874
Full Member
 

Molgrips - I can see that point of view, but I didn’t support the last referendum and I would struggle to support another one.

A referendum is a divisive tool unless there is an overwhelming result. In our country at the moment it would simply increase divisions and tension.

Somebody died because of the nasty campaigning last time round, and I suspect it would be worse if we do it again.

Now to be fair Greening’s suggestion of a three way transferable vote might assist with that issue, but I’m not convinced.

What we need is for politicians to do what they’re paid to do and do the right thing for the country.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:03 pm
Posts: 8022
Full Member
 

perhaps they can register to have their option on the ballot

Have most of them got a version?


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:04 pm
Posts: 91169
Free Member
 

A referendum is a divisive tool unless there is an overwhelming result.

It is, that's why the rules need to be set up.  Qualified majority etc.

What is required at this point in time is some dry, sober pragmatism from people who actually understand what’s going on. You’re not going to get that in another referendum.

Yes but both parties already said they're going to blindly follow the result regardless, and a full U-turn is going to be tricky.  They may be able to wriggle out of it by voting on 'the final deal'.  But the problem is that even if the deal is rejected and the UK stays in, it'll still look like a temporary situation so confidence will be destroyed which won't help either.

If they abandoned it and committed to remaining for a generation, there'd be riots.  The country's in a crisis situation that was totally invented by David Cameron for absoutely no reason.  FFS.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:08 pm
Posts: 17293
Full Member
 

Do you think that people who didn't vote last time would get off their arses now?

Hopefully now we have more knowledge of what leaving means they might be more inclined to do so.

I have friends who were abroad and couldn't vote who have returned with a now adult child.There's 3 more remain votes.

Then there's a least 5 leavers I know of that have died.

I think that leave shout the loudest but most people were perfectly happy the way we were.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:30 pm
Posts: 57407
Full Member
 

More cloud cuckoo land bulshit from our former foreign secretary in todays Torygraph. Basically, if we all just believe, then everything will be absolutely brilliant

He obviously doesn't do irony when he spouted that we should “rediscover the spirit of dynamism of the Victorian age!"

Yes... but you'll probably be less enthusiastic about' the spirit of dynamism of the Victorian age' if you were about to die at the age of 23 in an industrial accident down a mine, or as canon fodder in another colonial excursion, or maybe just of hunger or typhoid in a workhouse

He really is a total ****ing cockwomble! It mystifies me that there are still people who haven't or won't see through his self-serving idiocy


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:46 pm
Posts: 2007
Full Member
 

There are 3.5 million British people elsewhere in Europe who didn't get a say last time, but would be amongst the most affected; would they be able to engineer themselves a vote this time? It would be drastically unfair otherwise (it was last time, but presumably nobody thought the country was mad enough to have to do anything about it).

If they could be included in the vote it would provide a massive swing to remaining.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:46 pm
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

Then there’s a least 5 leavers I know of that have died.

You don't reverse a 1.7 million vote margin by relying on people dying in two years. 20 years maybe, but not 2. The underlying reason for the yes vote has massively strengthened, not weakened. People have even less regard for politicians now than they did two years ago. Two years ago everyone thought they were a bunch of self-serving elitists, now they think they are a bunch of incompetent self-serving elitists who are trying to subvert democracy. They're not going to vote for a complicated, nuanced solution to an intractable problem, they're going to vote for the simplistic solution, which is to stick two fingers up to the people who tell them they're too stupid to understand and make their own decisions.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:49 pm
Posts: 17293
Full Member
 

I read somewhere ( so that makes it a fact!) Leave would be a minority in 2020 due to people dying.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:53 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

The underlying reason for the yes vote has massively strengthened, not weakened. People have even less regard for politicians now than they did two years ago.

Where are the polls suggesting that swing? UK polling gets a hammering internationally by not picking up trends/difference well enough and for GE not accounting for the FPTP well enough. What are the current numbers for Leave/Remain?


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:55 pm
Posts: 78537
Full Member
 

The vast majority of the idiots who voted for it last time are still out there and I see little evidence they’ve changed their mind.

Due to the voting demographic being heavily skewed by age, in a fair vote remain would surely win now just because of the number who have died off and others who have come of voting age?  That's before we consider people changing their minds.

The main thing that fuelled the original yes vote was the people sticking two fingers up to the politicians because they felt they weren’t being listened to and a new vote will simply confirm this.

The main thing that fuelled the original yes vote was immigration.  Everything else was secondary.

I now fully support a second referendum. So should everyone else.

Third referendum.  And no, I don't support it.  As I've said before, a) I don't believe that a referendum has a place in a parliamentary democracy, and b) I don't trust that it'll be held fairly.  And if 'leave' wins again then it truly is game over.

However, that said I'm starting to think that another referendumb might be the only tangible way out of this mess.  Now that all the lies have dissipated, the only reason being offered now for leaving the EU (besides the real one, which is that a bunch of rich people stand to become even richer) is that it's "the will of the people."  If we can dispel that notion then brexit is dead.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 2:56 pm
Posts: 78537
Full Member
 

Where are the polls suggesting that swing?

YouGov (IIRC) has showed a consistent nominal majority for leave up until about this time last year, and has shown a consistent nominal majority for remain ever since then.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:01 pm
Posts: 11855
Full Member
 

A second referendum would only be worthwhile if both sides were somehow restrained from lying out of their arses.

The campaign period should be six or so televised debates with simple titles like 'NHS', 'Immigration', 'Jobs', 'Food' etc. and those debating can only use 'evidence' and statements that has been submitted beforehand and proved as NOT BULLSHIT!

Anything they bring up during the debate which wasn't pre-approved needs to be instantly called up and checked/vetted etc. with some sort of three strikes and you're out type arrangement so people can see whose arguments are actually valid and whose are just nonsense.

The fact that no politician in Britain would sign up to having their statements independently verified on live TV would be very telling...


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:03 pm
Posts: 52609
Free Member
 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

That is probably the more significant stat at the moment, Leave loving tories are leaving May


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:06 pm
Posts: 57407
Full Member
 

Aren't there only actually 16 Tory party members left alive? And they've been senile for years, so just sit smelling of wee in Eastbourne telling everyone they used to come here when it was all fields, and moaning about the number of darkies around nowadays?

Speaking of which, latest immigration figures show that the drop in EU migration has just been replaced with migration from non-EU countries. So people who are ... you know..... the wrong colour?

I wonder how that news will be received by the UKIP racists?


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:14 pm
 igm
Posts: 11874
Full Member
 

Tracking support for leaving the E.U. from 2013 ish when it was around 62% to today when it’s around 47% is interesting.

It bounces around a fair bit but you could do a fairly good linear regression for the data set.

It has to be now for the Brexies, because they are increasingly part of the past.

They cannot afford to miss their chance.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:25 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

The reason for a second referendum is due to the politicians being too weak two years ago to stand up and reform and are still the same trying to push the responsiblity to other people

There are 3.5 million British people elsewhere in Europe who didn’t get a say last time, but would be amongst the most affected; would they be able to engineer themselves a vote this time? It would be drastically unfair otherwise (it was last time, but presumably nobody thought the country was mad enough to have to do anything about it).

If they could be included in the vote it would provide a massive swing to remaining.

i know people who live in Spain who voted leave. More than a few sadly.

This is not a vote about the economy, jobs etc. but an abstract concept of being able to stand independent free of the rest of the world like in a poor quality swashbuckling made for TV movie. If anything the failure of our politicians has made people want this more


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:36 pm
Posts: 1751
Full Member
 

Around 1% of the population die every year. Just to be sure, I’m all for another referendum in about 9 months time 😏

Also, it doesn’t have to be a binary referendum. The reality is so much more nuanced. Also also; rules should be predetermined as to majority required, as they should have been last time. Ridiculous that a decision so close to the wire as that should dictate such a tumultuous course of action. Should have been; too close to call = status quo.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 3:57 pm
Posts: 812
Free Member
 

The sky isn't falling on many people, indeed there has hardly been a significant change for many, so why would they think anything "bad" might happen if "we" Brexit even by the most brutal way possible?

The hard Brexiters know this and the faster they can get "negotiations" to collapse and/or end, the better for them.

If May drags out the talks long enough for headline grabbing financial issue to occur, a 3rd ref may happen.

Perhaps, though, May is kind of hoping that as economic issue become apparent, those affected will actually not demand a 3rd ref but scatter, ineffectually, between between Labour, Liberal and UKIP? (Other political parties may be available in your area- Check your local subway wall.)

All I know is it's been a long time since a referendum or GE and I'm goin' cold turkey without me regular hit of suffrage.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:01 pm
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

Now that all the lies have dissipated

Have they? Even if that were true it goes both ways. The nutters will say the world didn't fall in as was predicted, they'll point to increases in the stockmarket, they'll point to reduced immigration. Even though these things are spurious they'll say them anyway, and everyone will believe them. What will remain say? They'll say the same as they did last time, and the leavers will say they've already proved they were wrong. Then they'll say that they warned the establishment will try to reverse the people's decision, and they have been proved right. There's not a cat in hells chance of remain winning a new referendum.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:01 pm
Posts: 1751
Full Member
 

There’s not a cat in hells chance of remain winning a new referendum.

I don’t think that’s true! Let’s vote on it 😉


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:05 pm
Posts: 18035
Full Member
 

A second referendum would only be worthwhile if both sides were somehow restrained from lying out of their arses.

Sadly that can't happen. Politicians don't deal in the facts, only soundbites. Seems like a good time to link to an article by Madeleine Albright.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/08/madeleine-albright-fascism-is-not-an-ideology-its-a-method-interview-fascism-a-warning

She quotes a well known facsist:

“I will tell you what has carried me to the position I have reached. Our political problems appeared complicated. The people could make nothing of them… I…reduced them to the simplest terms. The masses realised this and followed me.”


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:10 pm
Posts: 31109
Full Member
 

they’ll point to reduced immigration

I thought immigration had increased, along with the additional costs to employers of having to rely on applicants from non-EEA countries, now that our neighbours are avoiding coming here due to our new found attitude to them.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:15 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 dazh
Posts: 13393
Full Member
 

I thought immigration had increased

It has overrall, but immigration from the EU has decreased so that's what they'll say and spin it as immigration as a whole. You think they will be worried about not getting their facts right?


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:19 pm
Posts: 31109
Full Member
 

Sadly that can’t happen.

This is true. No point asking people to vote where their votes can not take into account multiple contradictory Brexits. Any vote which is "Remain" or "any one of multiple contradictory visions of an alternative" will end the same as the last one. The politicians can paint a different picture for every group of possible Leave voters, and drill down and market to them in different ways… once again with "separate" campaign groups offering different visions via closed off Facebook ads and the like.

I'm up for a vote on "Remain or plan A", no matter what plan A is. I'm not up for "Remain or any of plans A-Z". What would be the point?

For what it's worth, I think there "might" be a plan A that would get a big win against Remain… but only the prospect of having the public vote on it will bring it about… leave it to the squabbling politicians and they'll end up with a plan that the public would never back…


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:21 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Mooman -

The whole remain anxiety is built on being ignorant and believing whatever you read.

He might be (inadvertently) partially right here. I think remainers are ignorant. Brexiteers are ignorant too. Infact, everybody is ignorant!

We are ignorant because brexit has never happened before, we are ignorant because there is no plan, we are ignorant because nobody seems to have a clue what they are doing and while those in favour of brexit may think that it will lead to rainbows and unicorns, i suspect that the lack or planning and (again) ignorance being displayed may mean we just end up with a cluster****. I guess that makes me a remoaner.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 4:40 pm
 rone
Posts: 9788
Free Member
 

May is caving into Mog

That's as much her clinging to power as anything.

We keep hearing about the 1922 committee, but nothing ever seems to come of it.

The battle appears to be as much about who gets control of the Tory party as the EU.


 
Posted : 16/07/2018 5:15 pm
Page 1048 / 1714