but you’ve got to respect her stoicism.
Triggering A50 right after the vote was perhaps the next most stupid thing a PM has done after suggesting a referendum in the first place.
There was no need for it, other than to out manoeuvre Corbyn, and appease the right wing of her party who blithely assured her that it was all going to be a piece of cake negotiating/cherry picking with the EU. Look how well that turned out.
In the absence of any reason to be optimistic about the Brexit process, I'm more than happy to keep moaning about the impact to the Pharmaceutical industry. Today, I'm opining on the risk to patient safety from supply continuity.
According to the EMA, only 58% of companies with centrally licensed products involving the UK in their supply chain are on track to remediate the impact of a hard/no deal Brexit i.e. they're duplicating UK services within the remaining EEA or pulling out of the UK altogether. The EMA further elaborated that there are 88 human medicinal products which they believe WILL NOT have completed the necessary actions in time.
Some important points to consider here:
1) Only medicines that are of significant therapeutic, scientific or technical innovation are licensed in this way e.g. novel cancer treatments. So we're not talking about paracetamol.
2) The EMA analysis only considers the impact to the EU i.e. this survey does not asses the impact to the UK market, post-Brexit. This means that as of today, there is a real risk that many more than 88 products may be impacted from a UK perspective.
Now, the UK Department of Heath has also been surveying from a domestic perspective. Their figures are confidential but the high level view is that 'the majority' of UK Pharma are planning effectively to deal with Brexit (this is all medicines, not just the novel/advanced stuff). How many is a majority? Well, we know that 52% was enough for A50.
I believe that if there is not mutual recognition between the MHRA and EMA at the end of Brexit, there will be products that fall off the market in the UK and EU. You can't stock-pile them, they will become unlicensed medicines and Doctors simply will not legally be able to prescribe them. In that case, the likelihood serious adverse events for patients in critical care appear inevitable. For novel and advanced therapies, there simply aren't alternative products to switch patients to.
I honestly fear that there a real possibility that cost of Brexit could be counted in Human lives. It's a chilling thought, but as each day passes it comes closer to reality.
...the idea of state intervention then. Clearly has to be banned within the EU.
I don't honestly think that's true. The french government happily and rightly propped up renault and alsthom when they nearly went to the wall. Fiat were continually bailed out during the 80s, 90s, 2000s by the Italian government. The dutch continually bail out their steel works at Ijmuiden. It's only our our government (or is it the civil service, 300000 sir humphreys?) that seems to popularise the anti state aid myth.
Ok so the rules allow for stuff like emergency finance to stop companies going under. And I guess you can still massage corporation tax rates for certain industries. What else would a government do? What do they do in other countries?
Let’s discuss the idea of state intervention then. Clearly has to be banned within the EU.
If thats so, please explain DB, the Dutch rail system, most European car makers, etc etc etc.
Again, it comes down to facts. Provide some and debate may follow. Spout falsehoods and they’ll be called out.
Again, it comes down to facts. Provide some and debate may follow. Spout falsehoods and they’ll be called out.
Well I don't really know, that's why it's a discussion not a lecture. Please correct me with, as you say, facts 🙂
From what I read, there's wiggle room.
In the absence of any reason to be optimistic about the Brexit process, I’m more than happy to keep moaning about the impact to the Pharmaceutical industry. Today, I’m opining on the risk to patient safety from supply continuity.
According to the EMA, only 58% of companies with centrally licensed products involving the UK in their supply chain are on track to remediate the impact of a hard/no deal Brexit i.e. they’re duplicating UK services within the remaining EEA or pulling out of the UK altogether. The EMA further elaborated that there are 88 human medicinal products which they believe WILL NOT have completed the necessary actions in time.
Some important points to consider here:
1) Only medicines that are of significant therapeutic, scientific or technical innovation are licensed in this way e.g. novel cancer treatments. So we’re not talking about paracetamol.
2) The EMA analysis only considers the impact to the EU i.e. this survey does not asses the impact to the UK market, post-Brexit. This means that as of today, there is a real risk that many more than 88 products may be impacted from a UK perspective.
Now, the UK Department of Heath has also been surveying from a domestic perspective. Their figures are confidential but the high level view is that ‘the majority’ of UK Pharma are planning effectively to deal with Brexit (this is all medicines, not just the novel/advanced stuff). How many is a majority? Well, we know that 52% was enough for A50.
I believe that if there is not mutual recognition between the MHRA and EMA at the end of Brexit, there will be products that fall off the market in the UK and EU. You can’t stock-pile them, they will become unlicensed medicines and Doctors simply will not legally be able to prescribe them. In that case, the likelihood serious adverse events for patients in critical care appear inevitable. For novel and advanced therapies, there simply aren’t alternative products to switch patients to.
I honestly fear that there a real possibility that cost of Brexit could be counted in Human lives. It’s a chilling thought, but as each day passes it comes closer to reality.
I work in QA, along side QPs - supporting them with batch release where I can, whilst managing the quality system on my side in regards to deviations, complaints, CA/PA's recalls etc - basically, I'm nosey and I get to see everything that is going on from a nice top down perspective.
My thoughts on this are the same as yours.
Has already cost my company 10s of millions to prepare for brexit and the impact on pharma supply chain.
That's money that won't go into R&D
It's clear that there is a huge amount of work being done and money being spent on re-doing stuff that we already do in the EU. One project at the company I was just at, and they reckon they've got off lightly. I'm wondering if this forced spending is contributing to the lack of slide in GDP currently.
In these times I like to turn to Tony Benn. His problem with the EU was a lack of democracy in the senior positions (which were appointed). While I would agree that is not good I wouldn't cause the mess that Brexit will because of that failing.
Well I don’t really know, that’s why it’s a discussion not a lecture. Please correct me with, as you say, facts
I did. You said that the EU bans state support. I provided a very small snippet of the weighty evidence to counter that supposition. You can read it up there 👆
I did. You said that the EU bans state support. I provided a very small snippet of the weighty evidence to counter that supposition. You can read it up there
I wasn't challenging you.
However it does prohibit some kinds of state support: http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
I was contemplating this "show us you evidence" call whilst having a poo just now and this is how it seems to me.
Brexit is a matter of faith, like religion. There is no evidence to present to say everything will be better after we leave the EU, but "the believers" KNOW it will be. They have faith. The rest of us, like atheists, simply point to the body of evidence which demonstrates what a great job the EU does, even if it does cost a few bob, and the total lack of evidence to support the view that we are better out of it. But, you know, Nigel says it will be OK, so there you are.
Shit, religion and Brexit on the same thread?!
DON'T CROSS THE STREAMS!
2 or 3 streams there? What did you have for tea last night!!
Smartarse
Well it must be a slow day was expecting to have to add a beaten to it edit to that!!
Brexit has always been a religious belief.
There is no evidence to present to say everything will be better after we leave the EU
There sort of is. If we had a Brexit where freedom of movement was scrapped (which a lot of brexit voters want) then it will be better as we will have less immigrants. That is what the believers want.
That may not be better to me or you but it is better to a lot of people. Doesn't matter if they would even notice, what the impact would be etc, just knowing there are less immigrants coming into their country is good enough.
Immigration is such a big issue to them that everything else is minor and will be fixed by reducing immigration.
Molgrips - you called me out for saying that mooman’s posts give me something to laugh at.
Fair enough.
Let me be clear I didn’t mean to suggest that laughing at mooman is a good thing, but it is the case that the stuff he posts is funny - to me at least.
If he started posting sensible views on a Brexit plan that could be agreed upon by say 30% or more of the UK, then I’ll consider it and discuss it. The easiest way for him to avoid comments about his posts making me laugh is to stick something constructive on here that we can discuss and debate. But he says he won’t do that because he’s scared of being bullied.
Really? While I accept my views and language can be robust, it’s not the remainers that have the track record for bullying.
They won, we lost. They need to get over it. It’s almost like our losing took away their favourite position of standing on the sidelines whinging and they’re not happy about it.
So today's Summary
Trump says chance of free trade deal out with May's Brexit Plan
May Says they have agreed to do a free trade deal
What's changed?
it will be better as we will have less immigrants. That is what the believers want.
Let's just clear something up. There are a proportion of out and out racists in the leave camp, for sure, but I have a feeling that most leavers think that immigration is costing them jobs and services. It's not true, but they've been led to believe that. To me, this grievance has far more depth to it.
Immigrants look and sound different, so it is easy to spot them. So when you find yourself out of work and you see loads of these foreign people working, you can understand how people can feel aggrieved. If those people working were from the next down or the other side of the country, you wouldn't really be able to tell, but because they are identifiable as 'other' then immigration as a concept gets the blame.
This grievance stems from poverty, lack of opportunity, and life being harder than it ought to be. But this is NOT down to immigrants, it's down to our government. If you are really concerned about services then far better to vote against an austerity Tory government than the EU who is giving us business and resources via immigration. But this is what campaigning is meant to do - persuade people one way or the other - and Farage &co won that hands down.
So all we can do is try and make that deficit up. Change the tone, paint a better picture, and hope that in 10, 20, 50 years, however many, things may change. Taking the piss is definitely guaranteed not to do that.
it’s not the remainers that have the track record for bullying
Ok, the Daily Mail and their like are bullying, but you can't take it out on Mooman. As far as I know he's not part of their editorial team. Leavers aren't all of one voice, any more than remainers are. We're all humans here.
Ok, the Daily Mail and their like are bullying, but you can’t take it out on Mooman. As far as I know he’s not part of their editorial team.
I re read his posts molgrips for the last few months, one about not coming here as we don't like leave opinions (none offered in the last 4 months) then just snowflake remainer jibes, somebody doth protest too much
Immigration is such a big issue to them that everything else is minor and will be fixed by reducing immigration.
... which we could do if we wanted without leaving the EU.
It’s not true, but they’ve been led to believe that.
And that, right there in that one succinct sentence, is the reason for brexit.
So when you find yourself out of work and you see loads of these foreign people working, you can understand how people can feel aggrieved.
I don't think it's quite that simple. Many areas which voted leave are areas of relatively low immigration, IIRC. What you say is almost certainly true of the shouty ones, but not necessarily of the 'normal' populace I don't think.
He’s done a good job of trolling though. Livened the thread up no end.
Kerley -
There is no evidence to present to say everything will be better after we leave the EU
There sort of is. If we had a Brexit where freedom of movement was scrapped (which a lot of brexit voters want) then it will be better as we will have less immigrants. That is what the believers want.
That's not actually evidence though, it's a matter of faith, as we've not yet had that situation.
Many areas which voted leave are areas of relatively low immigration, IIRC.
Yes, I live in one of them. People point and stare if anyone foreign looking walks by. Having had the displeasure of talking to people that live in the New Forest I can confirm that they still don't want immigrants here even if there are pretty much none where they live. That is what we are up against.
So today’s Summary
Trump says chance of free trade deal out with May’s Brexit Plan
May Says they have agreed to do a free trade deal
What’s changed?
He's got the attention span of a crack baby with ADHD. He's probably already forgotten he even gave an interview to the Sun, never mind what he actually said in it!
I have a feeling that most leavers think that immigration is costing them jobs and services.
I've no idea what most leavers think but I think for some tradesmen I've met it's more immediate than that. They hand out quotes and are beaten by Eastern Europeans who (rightly or wrongly) are perceived as better and cheaper than them. So I'm pretty sure that self employed tradesmen don't consider Eastern Europeans to be worse than them, their view is Eastern Europeans are supermen they can't compete with. If some of them voted Brexit, I'm pretty sure the motive isn't racism, it's good old fashioned protectionism. (Which carries it's own drawbacks, of course.)
Even better binners
He said waht he said but they didn't print the bits where he was nice about her
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1017759455838998528
#FAKENEWS
Then the sun has apparently released the audio recording of the interview so waiting for that to appear
Many areas which voted leave are areas of relatively low immigration, IIRC.
Like Slough?
Many areas which voted leave are areas of relatively low immigration, IIRC.
This is true, but in general fear of immigrants is much greater in places which don't have very many of them. Irrational, maybe, but rationality isn't a major component of most people's thinking.
I don’t think it’s quite that simple. Many areas which voted leave are areas of relatively low immigration, IIRC.
It's all about perception. In a low immigration area, the one foreign person at the coffee shop stands out far more.
I’m pretty sure the motive isn’t racism, it’s good old fashioned protectionism.
I think that's what I was trying to get at - yes.
Irrational, maybe, but rationality isn’t a major component of most people’s thinking.
I hope that's not a dig at Leavers because it's true for almost all of us, whichever side you're on. If you think you're entirely rational you're probably kidding yourself.
in general fear of immigrants is much greater in places which don’t have very many of them. Irrational, maybe, but rationality isn’t a major component of most people’s thinking.
Same point - explain Slough - just 34.5% of residents of White 'British' ethnicity but voted out.
I'd vote to leave Slough
Indians don't like the fact that their family have to apply for visas whereas Euros don't.
Slough explained - the vast majority of the non White British are from outside the EU.
They voted out to favour non EU immigrants.
Slough - around 6% of population born in E.U. countries other than the UK as of 2011. Didn’t look for more recent data as I don’t have time - but I’m sure ninfan, you’ll have it to hand.
PS that 6% includes the Irish contingent of course
Same point – explain Slough
Slough is easy to explain, if you've ever been there. if I lived in Slough I'd be desperate for change as well.
I’m pretty sure that self employed tradesmen don’t consider Eastern Europeans to be worse than them, their view is Eastern Europeans are supermen they can’t compete with.
Anecdotally I suspect there's some truth in this. A friend of mine did some seasonal work with a bunch of Polish folk, she said it took her months to get even close to matching the output they were producing.
Indians don’t like the fact that their family have to apply for visas whereas Euros don’t.
They voted out to favour non EU immigrants.
The racist barstards! I thought Brexit voters were all little Englanders?
They voted out to favour non EU immigrants.
Favour? Or given them equal status? Why shouldn't non EU immigrants have equal status with EU immigrants?
I hope that’s not a dig at Leavers because it’s true for almost all of us, whichever side you’re on. If you think you’re entirely rational you’re probably kidding yourself.
No, it wasn't particularly a dig at Leavers, although there is some research that suggests they are on average less likely to be logical thinkers than Remainers. I wish that it hadn't taken me 25 years of work to realise that a logical, fact based argument was almost useless as a means of persuading people.
I think TurnerGuy posted that research the other day onewheelgood
A friend of mine did some seasonal work with a bunch of Polish folk, she said it took her months to get even close to matching the output they were producing.
I've got a mate who was a farm contractor, he couldn't compete on price or hours worked and went into landscape gardening. Anecdotal and might just be perception.
I think this help explains it