[Closed] Double dip recession

TJ I even used highlights to help you. Tory policy may be incorrect, but at least lets talk about what they have done. Cuts start in 2103. They did not cut gov current expenditure in 2010 or 2011, You have even started saying that Osborne has increased spending, so make your mind up.

Still gobsmacked that there isn't a run on the pound given all you say though. How bizarre is that! Those bloody city boys, nutters the lot of them 😉

THM for every economist you claims says the tories are right there is another who says they are wrong.

Austerity, God (sorry!) forbid is forecast to kick in in 2013. Then we can have that debate.

It's clearly kicked in now, as the economy slipping back into recession clearly suggests. I guess more than a quarter million public sector workers getting thrown out of work last year might have contributed to it.

If you lot put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would be a better place.

THM for every economist you claims says the tories are right there is another who says they are wrong.

CFH - spent all day repairing paths in the pentlands.

Cuts start in 2103.

Cuts in jobs have already started - that is part of the austerity plan.

you could solve world hunger tonight...

I must admit I enjoyed "Strikes hit 20 year high" used as evidence that we have a massive ongoing problem with strikes, as opposed to being evidence that for 19 of the last 20 years, we've had very few strikes.

I enjoyed "Strikes hit 20 year high" used as evidence that we have a massive ongoing problem with strikes

CaptainFlashheart - Member
If you lot put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would be a better place.

LOL!

+ 1

If [s]you lot[/s] I put half as much effort in to something worthwile as you do wibbling on here, the world would [s]be a better place[/s] buy more pens.

FTFY 😉

don simon - Member

How about strikes being part of the problem?

How about strikes being a symptom?

Regardless- I do appreciate a good statistical abuse, so cheers!

Regardless- I do appreciate a good statistical abuse, so cheers!

I like a good non-sequitor too, so this thread delivers on multiple levels. What point are you attempting to make?

I'll let you go back and show me where I said that strike hitting a 20 year high and being part of the problem is the same as...

[b]a massive ongoing problem with strikes[/b],

don simon - Member

I'll let you go back and show me where I said that strike hitting a 20 year high and being part of the problem is the same as...

a massive ongoing problem with strikes,

, shall I?

No. Instead, why don't I let you go back and show me where I said that you said that?

DING DING end of round one

😆
And with that.....

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don't have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don't have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

TandemJeremy - Member

Is it still alice in wonderland on here where the tory apologists will resort to any logical contortions so they don't have to admit the tory policies are making things worse not better?

How can someone votes for the same party I do not understand ... it's like letting the maggots to grow inside you then let them feast on you. Majority of politicians are twisted leeches that will drink your blood dry given the chance ...

The logic is that ...

1. Labour was in power for some time so it's time to end them regardless of whether how good they could govern. The longer they govern the more they want to turn people in zombies ... yes, they want to dictate what's good for you in their own perspectives.

2. Tory will do some good by getting people to wean off state support (those who deserve should get them) otherwise there will be more waiting to be fed ... "You've never had it so good."

3. None of them can improve on the current economy situation so nothing wrong by choose other party. What is wrong with stirring up the shite to make it smell a bit more since we are already swimming in pool of shite?

🙄

it's like letting the maggots to grow inside you then let them feast on you. Majority of politicians are twisted leeches that will drink your blood dry given the chance ...

The longer they govern the more they want to turn people in zombies

What is wrong with stirring up the shite to make it smell a bit more since we are already swimming in pool of shite?

How beautifully put, and what wonderful and poetic metaphors, have you ever considered writing children's books ?

TandemJeremy - Member
...spent all day repairing paths in the pentlands

Probably best get an early night then......

TandemJeremy - Member. THM [b]when you talk rubbish[/b] them you will be challenged.

I hope that this will continue to be the case and a measure that is applied to all posters in a non-personal way ie challenge the comments not the person. So please feel free to correct my rubbish. In the meantime, lets look at your case for the prosecution:

TandemJeremy - Member

As predicted by everyone bar tory apologists the financial incompetents now running he country have pushed us back into recession. So obvious this was going to happen. shows how incompetent they are....

So what hapened: The ONS produced and early and uncertain estimate that the economy was [b]two-thousandths smaller[/b] at the end of March than it had been at the end of December.

From a Labour party adviser:

"None the less, the significance of a double dip is more political than economic. The gap between 0.1 per cent growth and a 0.2 per cent contraction is too small to be of anything more than symbolic importance...."

From Stephanie Flanders at the BBC:

"The phrase "double-dip" recession conjures up images of roller coasters, but if the UK's[i] recovery[/i] (her words!) were a fairground ride I'd be asking for my money back.

....Economic vandalism from a bunch of idiots. The damage they have done in two years is incredible....

.....the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse...

Now vandalism is a pretty strong word, so lets see. Again Flanders, "The downward lurch in the economy in 2008-09 was certainly dramatic. [b]But for the past 18 months, the UK's national output has been broadly, and disappointingly flat[/b]."

So remind me, the Tories came into power when, and since then the Uk economy has grown/shrunk or been flat. A little clue, Ed Balls uses the word/cliche :"flatlining". Not quite economic vandalism is it. And the difference beween labour and Tory policy on spending is 0.1% of GDP. Oh, but sorry we have already accepted that Labout/Tories are broadly synonymous haven't we.

But as Labour supported Davies pointed out. "The differences between Labour and the Coalition on macro-economic policy are in any case more about rhetoric than substance..... In a way, the Government is already doing what Labour demands, to the dismay of those who thought a Tory-led administration"

....However the tory cuts causing recession

Ok, subsequently withdrawn and replaced with Osborne's spending. Fair enough.

So the reality is. There is no economic vandalism. We have an economy that is as Flanders puts it, "bumping along the bottom." At the top level we have had de nada, de rien, nothing. But what about the sectors. Check the ONS, its all there - agriculture down 20% (deafening roar on Labour and Tory agric policies), mining down by one third (ditto), construction (-5%) and manufacturing (-6%), all under Labour and the Tories. But where have we heard the noise, yes, government spending. And yet, under both governments, the government has expanded by more than 5% and "health and social care particulalry strongly." (FT)

This is not to say that the situation is not serious. It obviously is. The economy has gone nowhere since 2008 and will probably continue to do so. So in this context, it becomes even more important not to exagerate, mislead, lie, "talk rubbish" (take your pick) especially with economic data.

The Tories at the moment are guilty (to the extent that any gov really makes a difference) of an economy that is neither up, nor down but flat. As Davies puts it they have made a crucial error, "in believing that the mere act of deficit reduction would rekindle growth. This was never very likely with everyone else – households, banks and major export markets in the eurozone and beyond – [b]all deleveraging at one and the same time. [/b]But this doesn’t mean that the strategy is wrong."

And finally on austerity - for Tim Harford in the FT, "So if this is what happens when government services are still expanding, you might enjoy comtemplating what will happen [b]when austerity really kicks in[/b]."

Yawn

Your premise has been shown to be wrong so you misquote, distort and make personal attacks.

Shows the poverty of your position 🙄

TandemJeremy - Member

" quote THM -There are two consistent arguments on this thread that I am countering - (1) that the recession has been caused by Tory cuts and (2) that the policy mix being pursued in the UK is signicantly worse that elsewhere. This does not make me a Tory apologist not does it mean that I agree with their policy mix - I don't. But that does stop me commenting on factual errors/BS. "

Tory policy has create the double dip recession - this is not a factual error - this is a simple fact. UK and US and german growth was the same until the first tory budget - when we started performing worse.

Also other countries are doing significantly better because they are are creating growth we are not - why - the tory policies

[img] [/img]

Note where the divergence is - after the tory election. German and US economies are now bigger than they were before the recession IE they have recovered - we have not. whats the difference - tory cuts agenda here / economic stimulus in those countries

And finally on austerity - for Tim Harford in the FT, "So if this is what happens when government services are still expanding, you might enjoy comtemplating what will happen when austerity really kicks in."

Well Tim Harford isn't being very honest then. Although if you read his whole article he corrects that by claiming "government and other services", the [i]other services[/i] includes private education and private healthcare.

Furthermore he refers to an expansion of "more than 5 per cent since 2008" bearing in mind that Labour were in power for half that time, and according him "health and social care has expanded particularly strongly" it's hardly surprising is it ?

I'm disappointed with you teamhurtmore.

As Davies puts it they have made a crucial error, ...................But this doesn’t mean that the strategy is wrong."

And yo quote this piece of illogic as evidence 🙄

German and US economies are now bigger than they were before the recession IE they have recovered - we have not. whats the difference - tory cuts agenda here / economic stimulus in those countries

from the ft

Drastic public spending cuts totalling more than €80bn ($96bn, £66bn) were unveiled by Angela Merkel, German chancellor, on Monday, combined with up to 15,000 job cuts in the public sector, as part of a sweeping austerity package

There will be more means-testing of benefits for the unemployed, and cuts in child allowances for unemployed parents, as well as cuts in pension contributions for the jobless.

i don't think that your model of tory cuts/agenda here ,not in germany really holds water. seems to me that they're doing the same shit there as here.

Well TJ you stated that I was talking rubbish (the personal bits) and that is not the case. Simple facts and your quotes and points exactly.

So I can take the conclusions of " a nurse with no economic training" (your words, not mine) or one of the most respected economists and government advisors in the UK. Hmmmm....???

Ernie - the Harford point is simple and merely re-inforcing what I said earlier. "Austerity" is a sloppy adjective because it has yet to happen, hence Davies comments about the more rabid Tories (my words, not his) being disappointed with GO. It is going to happen, and that is worrying giving the balance of current policy. So let's examine its affect at that time. Simple? (Harford is using ONS definitions so a little harsh to call him dishonest and Ernie I was ve careful to talk about both parties. I wasn't falling for that)

But its a little difficult to sell newspapers, 24 hours news, political parties etc on the idea that the economic news is devestaingly boring and will remain so. Tiny MoM or QoQ noise around a very, very dull long term trend of sub-trend growth (a misnomer if flat!). I am asleep already. On top of that, most policy mixes are broadly similar across parties and largely impotent due the triple sources of deleveraging Davies states. Yawn. And one of our biggest export markets is also in an unhealthy trinity of economic, political and social chaos. Great. You can see the headlines already.........

But perhaps Murdoch et al, simply adopt the STW mantra of [b]"never let the facts get in the way of a good argument!"[/b]

whats the difference - tory cuts agenda here / economic stimulus in those countries

Any figures on this?

You've showed a pretty graph of the GDP, you've alleged the US has been following a stimulus plan that is greater than ours, but you've not given us any comparative figures.

I've already shown you a graph of US public payroll that demonstrates huge cuts in public sector employment in the US, so can you back up your claims of this mythical stimulus?

[img] [/img]

C'mon TJ - this is [b]exactly[/b] what you've been arguing against! [b]exactly[/b] what you've been telling us was wrecking the UK economy - why is it working so well in America?

seems to me that they're doing the same shit there as here.

15,000 job cuts in the German public sector doesn't quite compare with 270,000 UK public sector job cuts, specially as Germany has a population almost a third bigger.

[url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/14/osborne-austerity-270000-public-sector-jobs ]Osborne's austerity drive cut 270,000 public sector jobs last year[/url]

teamhurtmore - Member

Well TJ you stated that I was talking rubbish (the personal bits) and that is not the case.

Yes it is as I have shown.

You said there is no alternative policy possible - there is as I have shown other countries doing so

You claim that the Tory policy is not making things worse here - It is as I have shown.

You are unable to refute these two things . Two things you claimed as facts that I have shown to be false.

15,000 job cuts in the German public sector doesn't quite compare with 270,000 UK public sector job cuts,

The US graph shoes a [b]million[/b] public sector jobs cut from the peak though Ernie

(albeit, that included the census, but still 600 thousand cut from the point where Obama came to power!

Why is it working so well there?

the US figures show categorically that cutting public sector jobs does not lead to recession, in fact your own argument indicates that its helping them and Germany grow!

So run out of trumps and trying a finesse?

Alternative polices stated repeatedly: change balance of monetary, fiscal mix. Less reliance on former. More focus on capital investment not wasting time on factually incorrect arguments about current expenditure which is yet to be cut YoY. A flexible exchange rate policy so that we don't do a Europe and force massive wage devaluation on workers. Umm, hence a bit of a challenge that £ * is going up but at least that may temper inflation, oh but we need that to erode our debt levels. How odd all these things are linked together?

18 months of flat economic activity. So policies not making things worse, not making them better, merely leaving us with dull, low and flat economic activity. And policy mix not unique to Tories. So yes, Tories are not guilty of making things worse but guilty of not making them better. Dull headline that for personal point scoring though!!!

* and the pound is going up because ........?!?

15,000 job cuts in the German public sector doesn't quite compare with 270,000 UK public sector job cuts, specially as Germany has a population almost a third bigger.

conceded, but £66b is still to be cut from public spending with a focus on targeting welfare provision so claiming that germany aren't proceeding with a similar agenda doesn't seem that accurate to me.

So you now admit you were wrong in your claims THM. 😯

On the contrary, stick to what I have been saying. Your OP was a simply misguided attempt to score a political point/troll with the barely hidden hope of scoring a personal one subsequently. Neither stand up to scrutiny - the recession date is statistical noise, the accusation of vandalism frankly absurd and the personal stuff relied on on- going misrepresentation. Still with the rain pouring down it was all faintly amusing. But the sun's out now so further amusement will have to wait.

Do try the Sandel book though. Robust criticisms of markets based on fact have so much more lasting impact albeit without the humour/silly factor.

Btw you have consistently argued that a rising exchange rate is a vindication of economic policy with reference to the euro. Is the £ an exception or dare I ask, why is the pound going up......?

Edit double post

TandemJeremy - Member

So you now admit you were wrong in your claims THM.

TJ Dear Leader Wannabe ...

As your Supreme Dearest Leader to maggots kind I must say you points/arguments are of a disappointment ...

You keep on going in circle with steadfast determination of the collective mindset insisting on the Tories causing the economy turmoil, but you have failed big time in even trying to convince. The govt has only been in power for two years ... so damage or not I doubt they can screw it up that badly ... I remember the Parliamentary PM Q time (Dearest Leader will put your entire family to hard labour for daring to think let alone voice) during the first few weeks of new govt and that one Mr Balls guy has already started attacking the govt policy ... he is a clown isn't he? Even my grandma six feet under would laugh at Balls.

The conclusion ... TJ you failed as an apprentice to become the future Dear Leader you capitalist! Only capitalist argues about economy etc ... in the world of Dearest Leader there is only truth and it is the Dearest Leader. The rest are just maggots.

😆

Wow !.

You puppies still arguing over that bone ?.
😯

Look. Do any of you honestly believe that TJ will all of a sudden.
Roll over and post:

" Yeah, you know what ?, you've convinced me and I'd like to say that I now agree with your opinion as you have outlined an alternative and very valid point of view ".
" Thank you for enlightening me ".

Personally, I'd expect hell to freeze over first.
Some of you lot seem to be intelligent.
So therefore, surely you must see.
It TJ's way, or its a troll-tastic argument.

Carry on !.
:loopy:

Btw you have consistently argued that a rising exchange rate is a vindication of economic policy with reference to the euro. Is the £ an exception or dare I ask, why is the pound going up......?

I have? news to me.

It really does amuse me the way yo accuse me of doing what yo do consistently. Misrepresentation, selective quoting and personal attacks.

Very funny

So do you agree there are alternate policies available that are being used by otrhe countries with more success? On this thread you have claimed both yes and no to this point.

[img] [/img]

[img] ?[/img]

[img] [/img]

[img] [/img]

Btw you have consistently argued that a rising exchange rate is a vindication of economic policy with reference to the euro. Is the £ an exception or dare I ask, why is the pound going up......?

I have? news to me.

It really does amuse me the way yo accuse me of doing what yo do consistently. Misrepresentation, selective quoting and personal attacks.

Well you have said this and similar on many occasions, so THM's suggestion is hardly misrepresentation.

To the folk who think the euro is in such trouble - why is it highly valued? Mch higher than the £ right now and doing well against the dollar IIRC. Wehre would you rather have your money? £ Euro? Dollar? Yen?