Cant decide whether this will help or hinder the AFD in the upcoming elections as Germany is very vulnerable to tarrifs
The AfD will say that it's the EU's fault, and leaving the EU (and/or the Eurozone) will fix everything.
Not really – similar to Brexit, they voted for making their lives better, because that’s what they were told would happen. They were unable or unwilling to recognise this as a lie, or at least were not fed media that pointed this out.
The democrats were also part of the lie, that's the problem, they enact the same flood up economics that erode living standards for the many and enrich the few, they are also owned by the oligarchs, they are just not as extreme, but they tell the people the problems can't be fixed, that "we can't afford it" while the markets and property prices inflate and wages don't keep up. It is then no real suprise that people gamble when offered a false solution.
The democrats, labour and other European "centrists" need to start taking some responsibility and start offering solutions to the many and stop pretending that serving the oligarchs is the only way.
But what he has done is a challenge to it, and that’s what US voters voted for.
When the dust settles, it's very likely that the factories will all be in the same places. Because the shock of any actual challenge to globalism would be devastating to multiple economies due to the level of entanglement and co-dependency. Unless he actually plans to do away with democracy, that level of recession in a country loaded with federal and individual debt would not play well at the ballot box, not that the Democrats seem equipped to even point out the obvious.
There's an element of posturing - 'promises made, promises kept' etc, he is hoping that he will get minor concessions that he can brag about, while business continues as usual.
The AfD will say that it’s the EU’s fault, and leaving the EU (and/or the Eurozone) will fix everything.
The CDU/CSU are also going down that route, they are scapegoating immigrants for the failures of neoliberalism and then offering more neoliberalism, more austerity more tax cuts for the rich, more welfare cuts, more of what have caused the problems to solve the problems (sound familiar). The CDU/CSU are probably now at about the Theresa May stage of the tories (they just haven't won the election yet and may have actually ****ed it up as Germans see what is happening in the states and some at least realise what is happening in Germany is along that path)
I’m definitely already in on the “not buying American for the next 4 years” movement.
It's hard though. Have you cancelled your Netflix/Disney/Apple TV? Quit Twitter/Facebook/Instagram? Ditched Google Maps in the car? Heinz? Kelloggs? Caburys? Nestle?
They're everywhere!
same flood up economics that erode living standards for the many and enrich the few
Global trade doesn't erode living standards for the many and enrich the few. It greatly enriches the vast majority of us. As we are about to see demonstrated.
The idea that tariffs are "attacking global neoliberalism" is just nonsense. You might as well claim that bombing Coventry is "attacking blue cars" because there happen to be some blue cars there.
Ever since the time of hunter-gatherers and subsistence farmers, trade has been an economic good. And before anyone romanticises the lot of the hunter-gatherer, I suggest they live as one for a few years, or preferably generations.
but if it works it will see manufacturing jobs return to the US
Is that return to the place that has lost the expertise & experience to perform them?
It's like folk who thought that after Brexit the coal mines would reopen, or the mills (I'm in the Borders and was told this by a taxi-driver in 2016) restart.
There’s a lot of nasty stuff not making the front page of the news:
I thought taking down all the Spanish-language pages on the White House website on day one was petty and nasty.
Global trade doesn’t erode living standards for the many and enrich the few. It greatly enriches the vast majority of us. As we are about to see demonstrated.
The idea that tariffs are “attacking global neoliberalism” is just nonsense. You might as well claim that bombing Coventry is “attacking blue cars” because there happen to be some blue cars there.
I wasn't talking about global trade, the whole neoliberal system that global trade has been part of, but suppressing wages so the rich can get richer, suppressing wages "because they cause inflation", allowing assets to inflate (apparently that doesn't cause inflation if you massage figures to ignore it), reducing tax on the wealthiest while increasing regressive taxation (VAT, NI contributions). There are a lot of things going against the electorate that have been cheered on by the "centrists" as much as the right wing, and then like you they try and deny the created problems exist.
Since 2000 wages have grown about 66%.
Inflation has run much higher than that, the cost of goods and services have risen about 125% in that period
Since 2000 uk share prices have more than doubled, again probably around 125% more than 2000.
Since 2000 the average UK house price has risen from 75,000 to 240,000, more than 200%
Of course when the asset owners are threatened, the governments bail them out, massive rounds of quantative easing to shore up the markets, but they are not willing to take action when the living standards of the masses are eroded, other than pretending that neoliberalism can cure the problems of neoliberalism.
The democrats were also part of the lie, that’s the problem
They completely failed to come up with a way to oppose Trumpism, because it's really difficult to do. When someone will say absolutely anything without regard for truth or sense, it's almost impossible to counter. It's like arguing with a conspiracy theorist. They need a much more intelligent approach than traditional electioneering.
They certainly shouldn't be doing bipartisanship, when the other party has no interest in meeting them halfway.
Musk has deleted all the census records online.
14 Early Warning Signs of Fascism
- Powerful and continuing nationalism
- Disdain for human rights
- Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
- Supremacy of the military
- Rampant sexism
- Controlled mass media
- Obsession with national security
- Religion and government intertwined
- Corporate power protected
- Labor [sic] power suppressed
- Disdain for intellectuals & the arts
- Obsession with crime & punishment
- Rampant cronyism & corruption
- Fraudulent elections
Deleting census records - Item number 6, possibly leading toward 14?
behind the noise, tariffs are taxes that are raising revenue for the Trump administration, that they've not had to run through Congress and so without all the risks of delay and accountability that taking other tax rises even through a narrow Repub congress would entail; .
Nestle?
why? They’re Swiss
Musk has deleted all the census records online.
Source?
Truss managed to upset most of the UK within a few weeks,
It was the impact on mortgage costs that seemed to do it for Truss. Strangely it actually impacted surprisingly few people, certainly directly, at that time. Partly becuase not everyone is a home owner, and even then only a quarter of those that are home owners have a mortgage, and most of those would have been fixed at the time, so the majority of that minority - people who were buying/selling or who's mortgage was up for renewal - who were going to see and effect.
(something else happened which was some flagrant price gouging from the rental sector with landlords using the story of interests rates as their rationale)
But it didn't seem to matter if you were directly effected (in the same way that the price of gas and eggs effects everyone in the US) news of mortgage rate increases managed to hit the UK population right in the talking point.
tariffs are taxes that are raising revenue for the Trump administration
But the Trump administration can't decide how that money is spent can he, unless they continue to fabricate a state of emergency. Also, isn't the spending powers he gains restricted to dealing with the emergency?
I wasn't talking about global trade,
It's specifically global trade that is being attacked, not "global neoliberalism", whatever that means.
But the Trump administration can’t decide how that money is spent can he
Eh? They're raising revenue by applying tariffs on imports, and Trump has promised to use that money to lower income taxes. No doubt the rich will benefit the most while everyone else suffers with higher prices but that's the con. In the longer term the best hope for US workers is that it brings manufacturing jobs back to the US but it won't be a return to the 1950s where a family could be comfortable on one salary. Instead it'll be more amazon jobs on minimum wage and zero hours contracts, and it'll be white american kids populating the factories rather than hispanic immigrant labour.
Musk has deleted all the census records online.
I've occasionally deleted a document, but the US census records is quite special. He's less of an IT genius than I am!
This thread reminds me of the early pages of the big Covid thread. Once all of the joking and laughing at the Chinese was over, there were predictions of global doom as the worlds population would fall victim to something akin to the zombie apocalylse, all trade would stop, power generation would halt, fields would go unharvested and we'd all die cold and hungry.
I thought that was the point of these state of emergencies. Without them, the President is limited in his powers of deciding where money is spent, other than federal spending.
So he raises a state of emergency on the border, and that allows him to take money approved for military spending and redirect it to building a wall.
I didn't think he could just spend that money on anything other than the state of emergency he has raised i.e. the border issue.
In the longer term the best hope for US workers is that it brings manufacturing jobs back to the US
Trouble is you cant just set up a Nike footwear factory and train people to make sneakers, at minimum wage overnight (assumimg minimum wage make them as affordable as they were previously)
behind the noise, tariffs are taxes that are raising revenue for the Trump administration
Only if people buy the tariffed goods. If you put too high a tariff on goods, non-tariffed alternatives will be cheaper (which is the point - they will be substituted by more expensive local goods). On top of that, importers are businesses that pay taxes on their profits and have employees who pay income tax. If you put them out of business, you lose the tax revenue from them. The revenue you raise from tariffs will always be less than just the tariff rate multiplied by the pre-tariff import amount.
tariffs are taxes that are raising revenue for the Trump administration
I'd say that's what duties are supposed to be for but not tariffs in this case.
In this case i think the tariffs will simply raise the price of everything as a consequence.
(Trump will have no issues 'raising' revenue. He's said as much.)
It’s specifically global trade that is being attacked, not “global neoliberalism”, whatever that means.
OK then you are having a different conversation to the one you quoted me from.
Ah. So much for nesting...
tariffs are taxes that are raising revenue for the Trump administration
But the Trump administration can’t decide how that money is spent can he, unless they continue to fabricate a state of emergency. Also, isn’t the spending powers he gains restricted to dealing with the emergency?
Here's a link from a couple of weeks ago on how these tax rises bypass scrutiny...
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-executive-branch-have-so-much-power-over-tariffs/
On spending, I don't know the answer but even if hypothecation of some sort isn't possible or 'state of emergency ', governments have a fair bit of power over how they spend and this one has a lot of power, and spending is usually less contentious than raising funds
Sorry, had them confused with Mondelez (nee Kraft) for some reason.
Ontario has announced that US companies will be immediately excluded from provincial contracts until tariffs are lifted, and that an existing contract with StarLink will be ripped up.
Amazing, a place/contract where “fixed price” can change in an instant
Yeah, fixed price doesn't actually mean it's fixed. On a fixed price contract the price can change due to outside influences such as tax increases or in this case tariffs.
A firm price contract can't be changed and the price is valid for the length of the contract regardless of outside influences.
They’re raising revenue by applying tariffs on imports, and Trump has promised to use that money to lower income taxes.
Spending and taxes are decided by Congress, not the President. The Republicans have a very slender majority in the House and midterm elections are less than two years away. If Trump wants to enact major tax reforms, he will basically need to keep every single house Republican member on board, but his policies are widely unpopular and Republican congressional candidates who are up for reelection in 2026 will want to distance themselves from them.
Trouble is you cant just set up a Nike footwear factory and train people to make sneakers, at minimum wage overnight
Yeah that why I said 'in the longer term'. 😉
there were predictions of global doom as the worlds population would fall victim to something akin to the zombie apocalylse
You might want to have a read of some history in the 1920-30s. Beggar-thy-neighbour tit for tat tariffs were a major driver of the great depression which fueled the rise of fascism and ultimately caused the second world war.
I'm sure it'll all be ok though, keep calm and carry on etc...
Ontario has announced that US companies will be immediately excluded from provincial contracts until tariffs are lifted, and that an existing contract with StarLink will be ripped up.
Given this is Doug Ford, there is real stopped clock energy on show.
This thread reminds me of the early pages of the big Covid thread. Once all of the joking and laughing at the Chinese was over, there were predictions of global doom as the worlds population would fall victim to something akin to the zombie apocalylse, all trade would stop, power generation would halt, fields would go unharvested and we’d all die cold and hungry.
Indeed it seems that this thread (and a swift glance at BlueSky) suggests there is some borderline hysteria going on.
That said, it does seem underlying things is a move to really break things within the US government structure at present, so I get why there is some significant worry.
I need to step away from the news for a few days.
The stock markets are making for interesting viewing right now.
Yes, there seems to be an assumption that Trump is just using this as a negotiating tool and doesn't really believe his campaign promises. A lot of investors seem to be assuming that there will be a backdown and things will go back to normal. However, the car industry, which will suffer quick and brutal losses is suffering most. We live in interesting times.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
U.S. automakers with big North American supply chains led the decline, with General Motors shares off by 5% and Ford down by 4%. Auto suppliers including Aptiv and Avery Dennison lost 8% and 2%, respectively. Engine maker Cummins lost 2%.
Have to admit that seeing 5% being immediately wiped off Tesla raised a smile, even if it likely doesn’t mean much in the longer term
Their January European sales figures are coming out and they are 63% down on last year in France, now this could be because of the model Y refresh but I think Musk is going to kill their sales outside the US.
Spending and taxes are decided by Congress, not the President.
When the US Treasury has been infiltrated by an unelected foreign-born citizen with a god complex and who is best chums with the president, I don't think the rules about who gets to decide spending apply any more.
Tesla down 7%, love to be a fly on the wall in Musk's lair right now.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ
