DeSantis on the other hand is seriously scary.
Fortunately, he seems so immensely unlikeable, even to Republicans, that his campaign is struggling. He won't be the candidate unless Trump withdraws, or is disqualified.
Trump will neither withdraw and he cant be disqualified
It really does look like he will be going to jail tho. Fingers crossed
Remember back in the day when we couldn't believe they'd elected someone as stupid as Dubya and we all laughed at them?
Remember back in the day when we couldn’t believe they’d elected someone as stupid as Dubya and we all laughed at them?
That was the seed for the Republican meltdown - Dubya effectively stealing Florida on a vote count technicality potentially gave Trump and other nutjob republicans the idea that could do it again.
Hard to see how this plays out. US seems so polarized that it seems impossible to reconcile the two viewpoints. I was going to say the two sides, but it's really the two dem sides(east and west coast) versus the republican middle (counting Florida as the middle here)
Even the folks i talk with on a regular basis don't know how it's going to go.
I just hope he keeps on long enough to get the nomination, keeping desantis out, and then starts getting hit with guilty verdicts one after the other during the campaign. Even attending court is going to detract massively from his ability to campaign. The centrist/floating vote won't touch him. So long as they turn out for biden, and remember that it's difficult to shift an incumbent, it 'should' be good.
Obviously, there's a lot of anti-Trump rhetoric on this forum (which is fine by me as I'm fiercely anti-Trump and anti-just-about-anything on the fringe of the MAGA/Republican party/"Christian" values movement) but does anyone here follow any of the more centrist elements of media/social media (does such a thing even exist anymore?)?
I get most of my news from BBC/Guardian/NY Times and it's awash with this news but with a very particular slant to it. What are the more "central" news sources reporting? How are the more centrist Republicans ACTUALLY handling this?
It seems to me that the pro-Trump hysteria is generating a lot of noise and suggesting a massive and unsettling polarization of the US. I can't believe that over 40% of the voting population are so wilfully ignorant of what's happening here to consider voting for Trump.
So, long story short, what the hell are the centralists going to do to pull this back from them brink??
So, long story short, what the hell are the centralists going to do to pull this back from them brink??
They will vote Biden, like last time, because
over 40% of the voting population are so wilfully ignorant of what’s happening
My lad was in the States in 2019, and came back convinced the country wouldn't stay together due to the deep political divide
They will vote Biden, like last time, because
I meant more like, how does the centrists "save" the Republican party or de-polarize the population.
I've been to the US enough times to know that what we see or read about in the news does not reflect on how 40%+ of the population behave.
Frankly, I find it hard to believe that Biden/the Democrats don't hold huge poll leads or majorities in Congress but that could be because my views are too "metropolitan elite"
I get most of my news from BBC/Guardian/NY Times and it’s awash with this news but with a very particular slant to it.
These are centrist establishment slanted new sources.
US media makes our look neutral and accurate.
also due to Gerrymandering and the way the US electoral system works the right have a huge advantage - much more than the rights electoral advantage here
I can’t believe that over 40% of the voting population are so wilfully ignorant of what’s happening here to consider voting for Trump.
The 40% will vote Republican. Who ever is in charge doesn't really matter. The strange concept that is electoral colleges in the US helps the cause too.
So, long story short, what the hell are the centralists going to do to pull this back from them brink??
Actually, the cycle of voting might help them out IIRC. Can't remember the exact details but this next round of elections (not presidential) is the last chance for Republicans to take over the Senate etc. properly for a good number of years (I think there are more Democatic seats up for re-election this time around) as the next couple of rounds have more Republican seats for grabs, so in theory they can lose more than they could gain.
I think Biden isn't massively popular either but he seems to be getting the economy going again (green subsidy/state intervention) and they'll judge him on that and likely vote him in for a second term.
Trump has a vocal, yet small(er) number of followers. The clown show that is going to be him in court/jail whilst campaigning might rile up his vocal cultists but its not going to get him anymore swing voters. Sadly, as pointed out, one of the maga loons will have an AR15 he/she is not afraid to use, but can't see a widespread uprising.
I think once he's wearing the matching orange jumpsuit I can see the Repulicans rapidly distancing themselves and (possibly) positioning themselves back to the centre. Or they could go more extreme but that'll likely not win for them next time, much like the Tory choice once they get booted into opposition. Trump won't got to jail, much as I'd like to see if if he's convicted. He'll either be under house arrest in Florida for 200 years because of the 'security aspect' or bailed/grounded until he does the appeal after appeal until he croaks it.
In the end of the day, the big money will realise the loons don't get into power so they don't get their say so that'll ultimately affect the direction of travel.
And we think our electoral system is broken and the people it attracts are odd...
Frankly, I find it hard to believe that Biden/the Democrats don’t hold huge poll leads or majorities in Congress but that could be because my views are too “metropolitan elite”
The number of votes each state gets towards the presidential race is wildly skewed in Republican favour - I think possibly because of the concentrations of population on the more coastline states, makes the North/South divide in the UK look fairly balanced.
Indeed. trumps win he lost the popular vote by a significant margin IIRC but their system of winner takes all state by state means he won. their system makes our look democratic
I’m being naive here but, how can a man awaiting trial for a plethora of offences still be allowed to be in the running for President. Boggles my tiny mind. Surely at best you’d be placed on hold until the legal situation resolved. Seems mental and more than a bit messed up. Also it’s Donald ****ing Trump. Letting him be in charge once was amusing for the rest of the world but twice FFS!
I’m going out on a limb and saying he’ll be president again. The film Idiocracy is looking more like a documentary every day.
I’m being naive here but, how can a man awaiting trial for a plethora of offences still be allowed to be in the running for President.
Because the rules were written when it was a gentleman's club of politicians and so it wouldnt come up.
I’m being naive here but, how can a man awaiting trial for a plethora of offences still be allowed to be in the running for President. Boggles my tiny mind. Surely at best you’d be placed on hold until the legal situation resolved.
As someone that hates Trump, I disagree. What you're arguing for is effectively an ability for prosecutors to exclude people from standing for election merely by charging them with crimes. Prosecutors often behave unfairly or overestimate the strength of their case. If you've got a conviction - well, maybe fair enough. But if you haven't proved your case, then let the electorate decide whether the person shouldve elected.
Sadly I don’t think Kamala Harris fits the bill, as the political discourse is so utterly poisoned that she doesn’t have a chance.
To be fair - Biden hasn't done all he can to propel her, but Harris just hasn't been that good either. She doesn't come across well, and she hasn't done a great job on the tasks that have been assigned to her. 🤷♂️
Just like over here in some circles, those that are the most vocal about their patriotism, defending democracy, free speech etc are the same bloody ones that do their damnedest to destroy it all.
Hope he sees some jail time but the appeals will go on for years.
but the appeals will go on for years.
Asuming he can afford the lawyers, I'm not sure 'I'll pay you when I win' would really wash with any decent lawyer these days when it comes to trump.
Asuming he can afford the lawyers, I’m not sure ‘I’ll pay you when I win’ would really wash with any decent lawyer these days when it comes to trump.
I think he's already appealing for cash for his run at presidency and I bet a damn big chunk of that will go on lawyers.
He's the ultimate grifter.
Hopefully any decent lawyers run away from defending him but I doubt it unfortunately.
Still, as you allude to, the US gov have *very* deep pockets.👍😁
Hopefully any decent lawyers run away from defending him but I doubt it unfortunately
From what I have read they have.
The last set of lawyers seemed to be bargain basement cultists.
His habit of not paying and being a moron client means he is reduced to just the true believers. Who dont tend to make good lawyers.
I am pretty sure I read he is diverting millions from his election fundraising to his legal expenses
Luckily for "us", the judge who will be hearing the latest case, isn't a pussycat:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-6638360 3"> http://BBC News - Who is Tanya Chutkan? The hard-line judge on Trump's election case https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66383603
poops & tj - he's been, apparently legally, diverting funds from one of his PACs to fund his legal defence to the tune of c$40mill to date.
The same PAC has also requested that donations it made to a 'super PAC' be refunded.
All of this on behalf of an individual who claims to be worth billions so...pay your own bills you f***ing lowlife.
Does this chicanery breach US election law?
It must be pushing the legal boundaries.
It must be pushing the legal boundaries.
That's trumps entire modus operandi... it's what he does and how he survives. Why spend your own money when you can spend other peoples?
I would say the stress of living like that would kill most people, but he's a total narcissist/ sociapath, so it probably doesn't register in his brain, allowing him to sleep at night.
The number of votes each state gets towards the presidential race is wildly skewed in Republican favour – I think possibly because of the concentrations of population on the more coastline states, makes the North/South divide in the UK look fairly balanced.
Each state gets one vote in the electoral college for each seat in congress. The states with the smallest populations get one seat in the House of Representatives, but two Senate seats, so they get three votes in the electoral college. The large states get extra seats in the House, but they still only get two Senate seats. Wyoming has only about 500,000 people compared to about 40,000,000 for California, for example, so it gets three votes in the electoral college compared to 54 for California. Those small states are mostly rural and vote Republican. That gives Republicans an edge. It's not wildly skewed, but it's a definite advantage.
For nearly all the states, the electoral college votes are awarded on a winner-take-all basis. Florida is the closest of the large states to being a swing state, but a candidate who gets 50.1% of the vote takes all 30 electoral college votes. California (54 E.C. votes) and New York (28) are solidly Democrat, while Texas (40 votes) is a fairly safe Republican state. When it's all added up, a Republican can't really win without Florida. In 2020, Trump needed to win several of Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. It would have taken fewer than 200,000 votes to have flipped five of those states to Trump. It's really a small number of voters in swing states who decide the outcome.
poops & tj – he’s been, apparently legally, diverting funds from one of his PACs to fund his legal defence to the tune of c$40mill to date.
Not even really 'diverting' in that in some of his funding drives its clearly stated that he'll use the money for something other that campaigning. Some of his funding raising campaigns the funds you'd donate would only actually be used for campaign funding if your donation was over a certain threshold and a lot of his hardcore "small-dollar donors" were by default giving consent for their money to be used for 'other' by simply not giving him enough cash.
Is not even a new thing - back in 2018 - in the relatively untroubled mid point of his presidency he was diverting millions of campaign funds to his lawyers
His lawyers at that time (they weren't really 'his' lawyer, they chose him to further their own aims - he was their vehicle) - were 'Jones Day' who trousered that money- the one bunch of lawyers he's had dealings with that weren't a bunch of total fuds. They are probably the most interesting thing to have happened up to and during Trumps presidency and somehow they've walked away from the the wreckage of Trumps presdency having got everything they wanted and totally unsullied buy all the fall out. I really dont think Trump has even realised what they did or how they used him. If you've got the time for it theres a really interesting item about them at approx 17m on this podcast
The same PAC has also requested that donations it made to a ‘super PAC’ be refunded.
All of this on behalf of an individual who claims to be worth billions so…pay your own bills you f***ing lowlife.
Does this chicanery breach US election law?
It must be pushing the legal boundaries.
I think the key thing with campaign funding is....... you don't actually have to run. You can maybe get into bother over campaign financing if you actually get elected but your can campaign up to the last minute and then withdraw and you don't have to give any money back. So from trumps point of view his re-election campaign being derailed by any legal process is of no consequence. He's been fundraising for 're-election' long before he even announced he'd run becuase theres nothing to lose.
78 charges so far - more to come 🤦🏻♂️🤷♂️
78 charges so far –
You see the best president ever. No other president not even Washington got so many. MAGA.
Hopefully he can't drag things out past the November 24 election...
As someone that hates Trump, I disagree. What you’re arguing for is effectively an ability for prosecutors to exclude people from standing for election merely by charging them with crimes. Prosecutors often behave unfairly or overestimate the strength of their case. If you’ve got a conviction – well, maybe fair enough. But if you haven’t proved your case, then let the electorate decide whether the person shouldve elected.
I get that but 78 charges and he is clearly bent. There has to be a line when you’re running for President surely?
I’d love to see the orange shitgibbon go to jail but I can’t see it happening. Even if he does, it will probably be more akin to a holiday village than a prison and will be a ridiculously short sentence.
Innocent untiil proven guilty
If the republicans had any morals of course they would not pick him.
Innocent untiil proven guilty
He won't go to jail unless he's convicted. He's boasted about his offences many times over the years so I don't think there's much doubt about his guilt, the question is whether juries will decide he should be convicted or not - there are numerous rationalizations which are just variations on the idea that the law shouldn't apply to him.
Can the US provide a jury that will give an unbiased verdict?
Can the US provide a jury that will give an unbiased verdict?
In Washington D.C., yes. In Florida, maybe not. It only takes one juror to refuse to convict for the conviction to fail.
This makes interesting listening. Trumps lawyer admiting crimes on TV and in emails
He'd need to blend in to be a populist prisoner.😁
We can but hope...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/07/will-donald-trump-be-jailed-before-trial
Beau is always good to follow on this matter.
So far today:
1. judge has dismissed trump's defamation case against E Jean Carroll
2. bernie kerik, former NYC police commissioner and long time mate of giuliani, has met with Jack Smith's team after previously and persistently claiming various legal privileges
3. judge Cannon is questioning the legality of a DC grand jury's involvement in the Mar-A-Lago documents case.
So... 1 & 2 are good; 3 is less so.
Still to come, Judge Howell on the insurrection case and trump's lawyers attempts to delay, obfuscate and have the case moved out of DC to...West Virginia?
That well known bastion of fair mindedness - that is, apart from the rednecks and miners.
It's trump central, yes siree!
This is getting both more fascinating and more worrying.
Obviously Trump needs putting back in his box, but if he breaks any further restrictions and "dares" the judge to jail him, that could escalate really quickly with a potentially dangerous minority of Trump supporters.
the 5pm eastern time deadline for Donald Trump’s attorneys response to a request for a protective order in the January 6 case from special counsel Jack Smith, over a statement Trump made Friday: “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” Trump, however, argued he was just exercising his right to free speech.
From the gruaniad blog.
After being specifically warned not to threaten witnesses he made that within hours.
