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They're definitely rattled about the anti-military stuff. It's hard to really judge how impactful that really is, since it's one of the weirdest parts anyway- the fact that someone that's been openly contemptuous of servicemen, and dodged the draft, and compared trying to avoid catching sexually transmitted diseases to serving in Vietnam, is also "nobody more militaristic than me" and always wants to play at commander in chief.
So maybe the whole suspension of disbelief thing will just carry on but for whatever reason it does seem to be landing harder than usual.
You all do understand he will
winfix the election don’t you?
FTFY.
I know we’ve been here before but its going to be a tsunami of bad headlines for Trump from here till the election.
It's all getting interesting. Coney book out next week, Bob Woodward has one out the following week that's based on 17 recent sessions with Trump that he's already kicked off about on Twitter.
'...extensive inside reporting on the coronavirus crisis from day one until the end of July. It will include new reporting from the White House on Trump's words, thoughts and decision-making about the virus including how Trump first reacted when he learned about it and what he said and did behind the scenes.'
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1299732423207301120?s=20
he can't help himself the follow up to the tweet above !
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1299732426873135105
in the same thread, is this true ? having never seem Bee Movie.
Sadly looks like it's not true 👎🏻
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-inaugural-address-plagiarism/
thanks forgot about Snopes
[s]Did we miss #Dumbkirk?[/s] oops, no, just me 😀
He's certainly gives good copy though. Malignant narcissistic, ignorant oaf that he is. Will he be re-elected though?
I'm not so sure. Certainly if the election was tomorrow he'd get hammered.
A common fallacy is that the polls were wrong last time, therefore they can't be trusted this time. This is only partially true. Whilst the pollsters predicting a Clinton win were indeed wrong, they were right in that she won the popular vote by nearly 4 million votes.
Trump is only one of two successful candidates to have lost the popular vote.
So Trump became president because a few thousand votes in key swing states - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan in particular, but Florida deserves an honourable mention.
The first three above Trump won by less than 1%. If a few thousand votes in each state had gone the other way (and lets not forget that Obama won these states in 2012 by 5.39%, 6.94% & 9.5% respectively) then Clinton would have won the electoral college with 273 votes. Very fine margins.
Now bear in mind that Trump won for a number of reasons. He was an outsider candidate who proved to be a superb campaigner, who was able to deliver a populist message of change and tapped into a groundswell of disaffected voters from swing states who felt somewhat abandoned by the Democrats. In addition the democratic candidate was a poor campaigner, took the swing states somewhat for granted and was compromised as yet another member of the Liberal elite, not to mention server-gate and Benghazi. Point is pretty much any democratic candidate who wasn't Hillary would probably have won those states.
So if you look at the polling now (270towin.com is a good place to start), what you see is Trump in massive trouble. Biden is leading in Pennsylvania by 5.5%, Michigan by 5% and Wisconsin by 5%. In addition, in other states that Trump won in 16, Biden is ahead, namely in Florida by 2% (Trump won by 2%), North Carolina by 1% (Trump won by 4%) and Arizona by 7% (Trump won by 3%). Furthermore Trump won Ohio by 8% but is only polling at 3% ahead and he won Texas by 9% but is only 2% ahead. And Georgia he won by 5% and that is too close to call.
What we're seeing is that the swing voters (some of whom had never swung before) from 2016, who took a chance on Trump have realised that he is a very bad thing. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will almost certainly return to the norm and Trump is even threatened in traditionally safe states like Texas and Georgia. Even South Carolina which he swept by 14% is polling at only 5% for Trump.
270towin do a number of scenario maps. Their one that shows the map based upon polling (all the numbers they quote are averages of the most recent polls), has Biden as winning.
In brief when you combine the 'leaning' states (poll lead is 5% or above), the 'likely' states (above 10% lead) and the 'safe' ones (above 15%), Biden sits at 279, Trump at 116, with 143 votes in states that are too close to call. So Biden doesn't even need to win all the electoral college votes in states where his lead is more than 5% to win. Trump needs to win all of his + all 143 toss up votes, + some of Biden's. If Biden even secured 20% of the toss up votes, that would mean Trump needing to win effectively all three of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisc9nsin to even have a chance. Which is somewhat unlikely.
Nothing's guaranteed, but this isn't 2016, Biden is a better candidate than Hillary and Trump is no longer the insurgent that people will take a chance on. My money is in Biden for sure, however I appreciate a lot can change. The debates will be interesting..
Thanks Funk that’s a really interesting post, nice one for putting that info all together
No worries, I enjoyed pulling it all together and helped to clarify a couple of things for me.
It's not over by a long chalk and if nothing else, Trump has taught us to expect the unexpected! However those who say that despite everything Trump's base will never abandon him, are right. But they're missing the point. The 40% coalition of good ol boys, USA! fratboys, cowboys, farmers, straw chewing hicks, dixy chicks and religious extremists are lost anyway.
It's the magic 10% who make the difference and call the shots. And all the indications are that they have seen through the snake oil and realised that the Emperor is indeed stark naked.
The way I see it, as long as Biden avoids gaffes, performs at the debates and doesn't die; and as long as the vote happens and postal votes are okay, Trump is on a one way ticket to prison. And he knows it. As do his people. Some are jumping ship, others are too compromised and are in it to the end (Barr and maybe Pompeo).
If none of the above happen, to win it he'll need to steal it..
If none of the above happen, to win it he’ll need to steal it..
Its not beyond the realms of possibility. Imagine a scenario where the polls tighten in those four swing states and the votes on election day favour Trump, because more Republicans vote in person versus more Democrats mailing in.
He then throws even more doubt on mail in votes, dog whistles his supporters to go and "protect democracy" at various counts in those states. They turn up with assault weapons and march on the state houses. Vote counting stops as the officials involved fear for their safety.
Counter protests happen and pretty quickly a political crisis becomes a serious threat to public order.
After days of protests and unrest the Trump friendly Supreme Court rules that the current counts stand and Trump is declared the winner
After days of protests and unrest the Trump friendly Supreme Court rules that the current counts stand and Trump is declared the winner
Is there any scenario where some international election monitoring process would kick in? Not even sure who would do it. The UN?
There's no way that the kind of base that funkrodent eloquently described would accept international monitoring.
To them it would just be proof that "the elite" don't want Trump (and many of that base would spin this off into "people in dark shadows", Satanic babyeating pedos, etc etc).
Regarding Dumbkirk:
The way I see it, as long as Biden avoids gaffes, performs at the debates and doesn’t die; and as long as the vote happens and postal votes are okay, Trump is on a one way ticket to prison.
If only. I wish I had your worldview, because all I can see is a depressing slide towards a second term, which will only embolden our leaders to act in a similar way.
Trolling Trumpers is too easy. And probably pointless in this case.
https://twitter.com/297_ArubaLover/status/1298015402837118987
all I can see is a depressing slide towards a second term, which will only embolden our leaders to act in a similar way
Genuinely terrifying. I wanted the Kiwi lass to come and help out but we got the (alleged??) Aussie misogynist/racist instead.
funkrodent
Full MemberA common fallacy is that the polls were wrong last time, therefore they can’t be trusted this time. This is only partially true. Whilst the pollsters predicting a Clinton win were indeed wrong, they were right in that she won the popular vote by nearly 4 million votes.
Also, people just misunderstand what polls say. No real poll says "100% chance Clinton will win". But if you say "90% chance Clinton will win" and then she doesn't, it's possible your poll was completely wrong but equally it might be absolutely correct and you're just in the 10%. Pollsters are partly responsible of course as they like to be seen as all-knowing.
Go on Trump's twitter and a lot of the comments are completely and utterly detached, living proof of a postmodernist world. Reality for many does not seem to be too much of an issue so adverse circumstances do not necessarily lead to a change of consciousness and voting intentions. Johnson is a great admirer and what with Murdoch's 'news' channel coming it seems the plan is to debase and vulgarise politics too and have culture wars whilst the money-making carries on uninterrupted in the background. An American near me says he's bad for America but good for business, mercenary ****.
Go on Trump’s twitter and a lot of the comments are completely and utterly detached
His family were close to and were/are supposedly big supporters of Norman Vincent Peale's positive thinking approach. IMO this is behind many things he comes out with, he thinks if he says something enough it becomes so.
Old article here... https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/13/donald-trump-positive-thinking-215704
“Stamp indelibly on your mind a mental picture of yourself as succeeding,” Peale urged his millions of followers. “Hold this picture tenaciously. Never permit it to fade.”
'Say it enough times and people will believe what they see', combine positive thinking and malignant narcissism and there you have Trump. Good article. But although we can explain his arc of success in psychologistic terms, clearly there were other interests that for whatever reasons backed this chump then and do so now despite his deterioration. Class war innit.
Class war innit.
Next four years will give at least one, probably more, seats of the supreme court. If you get an overwhelming majority of young (relative to senior judges) partisans on the court it will be a massive victory for the right.
There are also all the lower seats. If you rule the courts and have planted a bunch of people who put ideology first you cripple the democrats for years.
The problem is not all of the supreme court choices have proved ideologically sound.
martinhutch wrote
"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/"
You do of course realise that this was pure fiction, orchestrated by the Biden campaign.
Not by Joe himself, as he clearly has either senility or dementia to contend with.
You do of course realise that this was pure fiction, orchestrated by the Biden campaign.
Source for that? Reports suggested several sources for the original story, so be interested to read the other side of the argument.
Interesting first post that.
Interesting first post that.
Makes you think.... 🤔
Makes you think…. 🤔
Chewkw has a new user name and took an English class?
Russian troll farm?
harrythephot, you wrote
You do of course realise that this was pure fiction, orchestrated by the Biden campaign.
Not by Joe himself, as he clearly has either senility or dementia to contend with.
That's a big assertion, with nothing to support it.
Would you care to tell us why we should not just ignore you?
You joined STW recently; was that just to post stupid comments?
I'm really hoping that Putin has logged onto to STW, although I'd probably be a bit more cautious in openly mocking him.
What tyres for crushing dissident activity?
I'm going for Purge-atory.
You do of course realise that this was pure fiction, orchestrated by the Biden campaign.
Not by Joe himself, as he clearly has either senility or dementia to contend with.
I think i'll listen to Chomsky before I listen to your Facebook research
But I guess that would make me a leftist libtard
He's now been recommended for a Nobel Peace Prize for bringing peace between Israel and the UEA.
Who has he pressured into nominating him this time?
Although to be fair the "Nobel peace prize" really lost its prestige when it was awarded to Obama for just existing.
Good episode of Americast out - they’ve interviewed Kim Darroch. Just wish they could have got a bit more time in depth with him.
He's recruiting an 'army'. Wonder if they'll open carry whilst trying to drum up support?
https://www.armyfortrump.com/forms/election-day-team
'As a member of our Election Day Team, you will assist Team Trump and grassroots operations across the country on Election Day 2020. Our Election Day Team primarily focuses on Getting Out the Vote (GOTV) to ensure any voters who did not vote early vote on election day. Depending on the state, volunteers may be involved in other Election Day activities such as precinct coverage.'
Download the Trump app
Shove it up yer arse 😀
Ooh, has STW been Russian hacked?
If it has:
To Russian troll farm HQ.
Tell Dominic Cummings that there will always be people who know he is an utter liar and will never cease in their efforts to show him up for what he is. Eventually we will win. We will never give up until we win.
P.S. Bollocks to Brexit.
P.P.S. Up yours Vlad.
He’s now been recommended for a Nobel Peace Prize for bringing peace between Israel and the UEA.
Peace between Israel and Palestine would be Nobel worthy. The UAE? hah, hes probably just flogged more military equipment to them.
Download the Trump app
Fart Button? Already got it.
Amusing and appalling in equal measure: