.they got it spectacularly wrong with Brexit, Trump and latterly they had May winning a landslide in the snap election
They didnt though.
Brexit was predicted to be close. Whilst the odds were on remain it was well within the margin of error.
Trump was a bit of an outlier but not a lot. It was close (after all he lost the popular vote). Could probably have done with better analysis on a state by state basis but wasnt spectacularly wrong.
The UK elections are better example. There was definitely bad polling in that case due to younger voters being missed out. It was also down to how bad her campaign was. Like Trump though it came down to quite small figures in key areas.
There was definitely bad polling in that case due to younger voters being missed out.
As I understand it it was not so much left out as under emphasised. More young people turned up to vote than expected so whilst they voted the way the pollsters thought they would their percentage of the total was miscalculated as they based their proportions on pervious turn out figures.
I think the concept of people telling the polling companies one thing and voting another is a really interesting one. This is not fibbing to friends or relatives but a perfect stranger they will never meet again. Sort of thinking what they beleive in is 'wrong' or not publically acceptable. A dirty secret of being a biggot or racist they can only admit to themselves in the privacy of the polling booth.
CountZero - Member[s]America and Trump[/s] Brexit is like watching a multi-vehicle pile-up in super slo-mo; endlessly and horrifyingly fascinating to watch, unable to tear your eyes away from the spectacle.
FTFY.
As I understand it it was not so much left out as under emphasised.
I thought it was a mix of the two. The traditional polling methods dont have the same access to them which means they do disappear. Whilst in the past it didnt matter so much due to the low turnout when they do it really buggers the polls up.
A dirty secret of being a biggot or racist they can only admit to themselves in the privacy of the polling booth.
It would be interesting to try and find out why. Although asking people why they lie to people asking them questions might pose some challenges when designing the experiment.
Thinking about what my response would be.
Probably be just not to answer. Cant articulate why but I aint a fan of answering polls. If they hassled then I might just make shit up.
Rhetoric about Mexicans (and immigrants in general), Muslims and the colour of passports don't address the fundamental problems of an economy that's run out of steam having been on borrowed time since the banking crisis.
It's been on borrowed time since the end of western colonialism. China is reasserting itself as it's natural position as the most powerful trading entity in the world - a title it has held for thousands of years. The west being dominant was a minor hiccup, we'll be a backwater state at the mercy of Chinese economic hegemony given time.
good article on how close the polls were on trump
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
i think its more that the media underrated him than pollsters, NYT for example, while WP had been warning for a while
nyt had a good article here show how trumps always been a racist
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/15/opinion/leonhardt-trump-racist.html?_r=0
a title it has held for thousands of years.
In propaganda anyway.
It seems to skip over lots of minor details in history though such as the mongols etc.
It seems to skip over lots of minor details in history though such as the mongols etc.
This is a bit like saying the British aren't British because of the Romans, China is Han dominated now - but the geographical region of China itself has always been a mix of various clans, ethnicities and dynasties vying for power of the state. That doesn't detract from the fact that the region itself has always held enormous power, despite whoever is governing it.
Here's a nice graph showing why it was a really spiffingly clever idea to leave the EU and lower our negotiation power.
[img] 
[/img]
Note how that between 1-1000AD China held twice the share of GDP than Western Europe and would have made Anglo Saxon Britain on it's own look like the medieval equivalent to the Congo.
Apparently Republicans getting ever more worried about the midterms
genuine concern they could lose both house of reps & senate as reps aligned & non-aligned with trump have been getting a pasting in elections lately
even if he is delivering jobs & stock market at same rate or even better than Obama
at the moment though republicans are losing large numbers of minority & female voters, that had held their noses & voted for trump in 2016
whether dems could ride that momentum until november?
(also any potential meuller impeachment would need dems to control both houses, unless he unearths something really dodgy)
This is a bit like saying the British aren't British because of the Romans
No it really isnt. Its stating that under Roman rule Britain was Roman and not an unbroken line to today.
That doesn't detract from the fact that the region itself has always held enormous power, despite whoever is governing it.
It is that is has been a meaningless designation for a long time.
That graph isnt overly useful either. Bit odd they couldnt be bothered included what was there before the USA (which might give a hint about weaknesses in its methodology). That it has a drop during one of the good times in "Chinese" history from about 700 upwards is odd. As is the lack of any significant drop during the initial Mongol invasion. Admittedly they played elsewhere as well but given the impact of the Mongol conquest I cant help but think there should have been a rather large drop in GDP.
The Mongols were pretty good at trade....howver the two datapoints are 1000 and 1500. The Mongol invasion lasted under a century and occurred around 1200. Also remember that "share of GDP" doesn't equate to total GDP. Whilst the mongol invasion was kicking off, Indias share was also dropping.
I'm not sure why the Americas are not including - but it might have something to do with the continent having very little bearing on the global economy at that time - whilst China, India and Europe were all heavily linked through trade.
What is clear is that the east dwarfed the west for a long long time - and that balance is being restored. Trying to deny that just seems to be attempt to bury ones head in the sand.
No it really isnt. Its stating that under Roman rule Britain was Roman and not an unbroken line to today.
Taking this approach fails to appreciate how China has always been a multicultural society. For example the Qing dynasty was founded by the Jurchen but arguably held together by the Han. At the end of the day, it was still China.
Daffy - Member
CountZero - Member
[s]America and Trump[/s] Brexit is like watching a multi-vehicle pile-up in super slo-mo; endlessly and horrifyingly fascinating to watch, unable to tear your eyes away from the spectacle.FTFY.
The Brexit thread is over there, somewhere >>>>>
This thread is about Trump, last time I looked, I’ll thank you to not change my posts to another subject that’s irrelevant, as far as I’m concerned.
If I want to make comments about bloody Brexit, I’ll make them in the appropriate place.
at the moment though republicans are losing large numbers of minority & female voters, that had held their noses & voted for trump in 2016whether dems could ride that momentum until november?
(also any potential meuller impeachment would need dems to control both houses, unless he unearths something really dodgy)
The question then becomes do they think they can survive rolling him before then and hold onto one of them? I think each of these wins along the road start to blow the myth that a huge number support him. The red would have voted for a slug in a suit this time around to have a go at clawing back some of the progress made under Obama. Turns out it's what they got.
Bit touchy there CZ...
The Mongols were pretty good at trade.
Unless someone did do what they wanted. In which case it ended in tears. As it did for the Jin.
What is clear is that the east dwarfed the west for a long long time - and that balance is being restored. Trying to deny that just seems to be attempt to bury ones head in the sand.
Well we will need to see what happens. Everyone is storing up plenty of problems in the mid term.
I am not sure either that seeing one country doing well for a period means it will recover. There have been plenty of powerful kingdoms, often for extended periods of time, which are now dust.
At the end of the day, it was still China.
Did you mean the Qin?That one was close to just a switch in power but then you have the three Kingdoms etc after that.
It just seems a rather rose tinted view of things to simplify it into just China.
But anyway enough derailing of this thread.
The question then becomes do they think they can survive rolling him before then and hold onto one of them
There is also the factor that even if he makes them unelectable for a while they will probably be able to stuff the courts full of right wing judges and hence retain massive influence for many years to come.
Did I see something earlier saying that Donny's "Fake News Awards" were now just a possibility rather than definitely happening? Are the fake news awards fake news?
Did you mean the Qin?That one was close to just a switch in power but then you have the three Kingdoms etc after that.
It just seems a rather rose tinted view of things to simplify it into just China.
But anyway enough derailing of this thread.
No, the Qin and Qing are two different dynasties.
The west is no longer outpacing the east so vastly in terms of technology that we are able monopolise the world economy through colonialism. The whole of the far east is in a period of rapid growth - the share of the east's GDP is going to dwarf ours based on sheer population once the economic re-balance is over. Western economic and technological prowess was literally a blip, a few hundred years - with most of the rest of history dominated by the East.
Our foreign policy and cultural attitudes towards our place in the world need to change in response to that shift, or we will be left behind - staring up our own arseholes (eg Brexit).
So lets take a bit of time and come up with a quote that will be snappy and to the point and definitely can't be misquoted
Donald Trump's son Eric says President not racist, he 'sees one colour, green'
Confusing but so far so good
Donald Trump looks down at an American dollar bill and signs it for a fan.
PHOTO: US President Donald Trump only sees one colour, the colour of money, his son says. (Reuters: Chris Pizzello)
[img][/img]
Donald Trump's son says the US President is not a racist and can only see one colour — green, the colour of money.The Washington Post reported Mr Trump became frustrated after politicians floated reinstating protections for immigrants from Haiti, El Salvador and African countries as part of a bipartisan deal.
According to two people briefed on the meeting, Mr Trump said: "Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?".
Mr Trump suffered a backlash over the comments and was accused of being racist, but his son called the suggestions "total nonsense".
"My father sees one colour, green. That's all he cares about. He cares about the economy," he said.
Yep his only interest in you is what he can make from you.
Donald Trump's son Eric says President not racist, he 'sees one colour, green'
I, too, bow to our lizard overlords.
The predominant colour of somewhere like, say, Mar El Lago.
Well, the presidential health check has been released...He’s in perfect health!
Though, a smidge overweight at 239lbs (he’s 6’3”).
I demand to see his girth certificate!
Marvellous- while addressing the March For Life, Trump just said:
"Right now, in a number of states the laws allow a baby to be born from his or her mother's womb in the 9th month. It is wrong- it has to change"
We're awaiting Sarah Huckabee Sanders' clarification on whether he meant the month of September, or the 9th month of pregnancy, but either way it's a pretty bold move.
Donny's health check - bone spurs? They just disappeared when the Vietnam War ended.
Coincidence?
Yep, definitely.
Wow the released fusion gps meetings stuff from the house intelligence committee
[url= http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20180118/106796/HMTG-115-IG00-20180118-SD002.pdf ]Fusion gps intelligence committee [/url]
Worth a skim but it’s very readable and just wow.
I do wonder it’s an open secret that they all know that Donnies so dripping in dirty money but they just don’t care as long as they can do their thing.
Donny's health check - bone spurs? They just disappeared when the Vietnam War ended.
Coincidence?
Yep, definitely.
Always amazes me that that they would elect any draft dodging president I bet a normal bloke at the time who dodged the draft like that would suffer a lot of grief.
But the piss taking of the bloke who was captured in the war just shows what a bawlbag he is.
We also had sort of more broadly learned that Mr. Trump had long time
associations with Italian organized crime figures. And as we pieced together the
early years of his biography, it seemed as if during the early part of his career he
had connections to a lot of Italian mafia figures, and then gradually during the
nineties became associated with Russian mafia figures.
LOL 😀
#drainingtheswamp
El Douche has managed to outdo Nixon, the wolves are out for him. I can't see him not doing time, unless he dies from a heart attack before he sees justice.
#trumpshutdown trending on twitter.
In 1 year he has gone from being sworn into office, to completely shutting down the government.
Worth a skim but it’s very readable and just wow.
+many. There can be no-one in Washington who doesn't know what a bad'un that man is.
So much dirty, filthy money washing around the Trump Organisation. So many dubious friends/relatives...
He has been an organised crime surrogate/enabler for most of his adult life.
Also didn't realise that the Kushners were ethnic Russian.
By the looks of that, Farage has been enjoying a dip in the filth as well, which is a bonus for people on this side of the Atlantic.
Might be home made porn vids on that usb stick thou 🙂
The passing of the finance bill, which keeps the government running for another year and has been managed by every previous President, always relies on a horse-trading deal being made between Tammany Hall and the GOP.
As The Trumper has already told us that he is a not only a stable genius but also a great deal-maker, the best, it's obviously not his fault that the deal couldn't be made.
Er... isn't it?
dudeofdoom - MemberAlways amazes me that that they would elect any draft dodging president I bet a normal bloke at the time who dodged the draft like that would suffer a lot of grief.
Since it was vietnam, I reckon he could get away with it- dodging the draft was a national pastime, and the attitude to the war now is pretty accepting of it.
But dodging the draft then slagging Sen. McCain, that was disgusting and I do not understand how the "yay military" people can reconcile it. They like hearing him talk about blowing things up I guess. Well if he doesn't get a budget bill through they stop paying the armed forces so that'll go down well. The "I was dead athletic" "I'm the fittest president ever" is just the icing on the cake though
grahamh - Member#trumpshutdown trending on twitter.
In 1 year he has gone from being sworn into office, to completely shutting down the government.
What you have to remember is that for a lot of people in the US, that doesn't look like a bad thing, the gubmint is evil and communist and only exists to steal your money. The shock on people's faces when war memorials and national parks started closing down last time was kind of comical, like "who do you think runs then?"
(Obama was actually really pretty sneaky about this, he made sure that public, visible things were shut down first even though they didn't necessarily have to be- closing access to parks and monuments frinstance rather than just unstaffing them)
As ever president ****nuggets own words come back to bite him in the arse
So, the American government has run out of money, and has shut down, because they can’t agree a budget.
Congratulations, Trump, a spectacular way to celebrate your first year in office.
yeah but it's biglier than Obama's shutdown, making US great again!
Donald J. @realDonaldTrumpBeautiful weather all over our great country, a perfect day for all Women to March. Get out there now to celebrate the historic milestones and unprecedented economic success and wealth creation that has taken place over the last 12 months. Lowest female unemployment in 18 years!
He seems to be under the illusion that the Womens march is in honor of him, and not a protest against him.
😆 the troll in chief!
@realJackassinchief
Bigliest idiot in world politics, and that’s with some stiff competition!
It appears Il Douche has signed in changes in consumer law that allows payday lenders to carry on charging interest rates of 300-1000%:
https://bbs.boingboing.net/t/trumps-consumer-protection-bureau-will-let-the-50b-payday-lending-industry-gouge-the-poorest-americans-with-triple-digit-interest-rates/114382/25
There’s a photo in the comments showing a banner reading:
SUPER
CALLOUS
FRAGILE
RACIST
SEXIST
LYING
POTUS
Made me laugh, anyway.
Is there no end to this execrable individuals vile behaviour?
I like Tammy Duckworths new name for donnie.
Cadet bone spur.
In financial news, the International Business Times reports the Trump administration has quietly waived part of the punishment for five major banks that were convicted of manipulating global interest rates. The banks are Citigroup, JPMorgan, Barclays, UBS and Deutsche Bank. President Trump and his business empire owes at least $130 million in loans to Deutsche Bank. The global interest rate manipulation scandal, known as the Libor scandal, involved banks illegally manipulating the int
I think Deutsche bank got a 5 year waiver.
Drain that swamp 🙂
And now that some sort of deal has been reached over the budget - apparently without the input of the worlds greatest deal maker - he's crowing about the democrats caving in. That'll help next time round won't it.
Is that actually true? I haven't seen it reported anywhere mainstream yet which would be surprising.In financial news, the International Business Times reports the Trump administration has quietly...
