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#SecondAmmendmentSolutions
Manufacturing jobs have already started to return from China to the US and espcially to Mexico.
The only reason China is still economically competetive with the rest of the manufacturing world (Turkey/Mexico/India/Bangladesh) is due to manipulation of their currency...another Trumpfact thats actually just a fact.
If Trump does lable China a currency manipulator and it's approved by the senate, imported Chinese goods would face an automatic 27% import fee ontop of any other imports fees.
This [i]could[/i] lead to low skilled manufacturing jobs returning to the US in the near term...problematically, high tech manufacturing jobs woudn't return nearly so quickly. China is especially well setup for this type of manufacturng and assembly now after decades of investment by both the chinese goverment and foreign companies. So, americans would possibly bring back some jobs, but would pay higher prices for tech goods assembled elsewhere.
"The only reason China is still economically competetive with the rest of the manufacturing world (Turkey/Mexico/India/Bangladesh) is due to manipulation of their currency...another Trumpfact thats actually just a fact.
If Trump does lable China a currency manipulator and it's approved by the senate, imported Chinese goods would face an automatic 27% import fee ontop of any other imports fees.
This could lead to low skilled manufacturing jobs returning to the US in the near term...problematically, high tech manufacturing jobs woudn't return nearly so quickly. China is especially well setup for this type of manufacturng and assembly now after decades of investment by both the chinese goverment and foreign companies. So, americans would possibly bring back some jobs, but would pay higher prices for tech goods assembled elsewhere."
I accept all of this. But it leaves the question: Why haven't previous regimes done it?
Trump looks like he's sitting himself in that video work Obama, h es, just had good cheers security briefing by the big boys, do I think it may be dawning on him, what his new job actually entails.
Former employee on the radio was saying that Trump didn't like working every day, and quite often couldn't be reached, things are gonna change.... Or he'll just delegate everything to his republican Bible thumping staff 😯
If tartifs were put on Chinese good would that mean everything made in China would go up ? So basically every computer and phone? !
Re death threats to Trump, I'm sure Obama has had many more, although suppose trumps creditors will be added to this list 😉
The bigger picture is that here in the west, people want to have their cake and eat it, and have had 30 years of politicians telling them that that's exactly what they can have. They want cheap consumer goods, but don't want manufacturing jobs to be lost to China. They want good public services but don't want to pay the taxes that pay for them. They want gold plated pensions, but aren't prepared to save for them. They don't want to do shitty menial jobs, but complain when foreigners are brought in to do them. They want a clean environment, but aren't prepared to change their behaviour to deliver it. Add to that the fact that they see celebrity culture shoved down their throats every day by the media showing them that the rich don't have to live by the same constraints as everyone else, and the result is millions of spoilt children who can't do anything other than shout 'it's not fair!' and throw a tantrum.
Maybe massive social upheaval and destruction is required to shake people our of their fantasy world? It definitely seems to be headed that way.
Agreed Dazh
Agreed Dazh
+1
The Reagan comparison is an interesting one. In many ways he oversaw (caused might be going to far) the problems that led to the current election.
It was during his administration that semi-skilled and skilled manual jobs were lost to automation and foreign economies. And there was a lot of pain for the have nots. Check out the music of the time -Springsteen perhaps.
The haves of course did splendidly.
And that problem hasn't been solved yet.
And perhaps it can't be (at least not as Trump describes it), because if the trade barriers go up, it is manufacturing that will return not necessarily jobs. Why? Because if you build manufacturing capacity today you build it around robots not people. Think about car plants, steel making - they're the obvious ones, but all manufacturing will be like this to some extent.
There probably will be a solution - but not this one.
WHAT Dazh said and by the spade load- we want contradictory things so we are open to folk promising undeliverable BS
No its not unless you want President pussy grab racist as your leaderTo dimiss Trump and many of those who voted for him by saying that they are unfit to hold office or stupid and that democracy has failed, is arguably flawed prejudiced reasoning.
The one with the least votes just won the election.I think supporters of the American democratic system can make a compelling argument that the Trump phenomenon is succesful democracy in action.
Aye the one who voted him into power are the ones, like Brexit, who are going to pay the price for it.it's always the weak and the poor who suffer most during major upheavals.
I think the chance of Trump even trying to help the poor - though he may well try to help America with isolationist policies - that others will retaliate to making everyone worse off - ie steel tariffs to Mexico and china who then put tariff on so he puts tarrifs on etc]
"The bigger picture is that here in the west, people want to have their cake and eat it, and have had 30 years of politicians telling them that that's exactly what they can have. They want cheap consumer goods, but don't want manufacturing jobs to be lost to China. They want good public services but don't want to pay the taxes that pay for them. They want gold plated pensions, but aren't prepared to save for them. They don't want to do shitty menial jobs, but complain when foreigners are brought in to do them. They want a clean environment, but aren't prepared to change their behaviour to deliver it."
+1 to all that except the words of the politicians are a symptom, not a cause.
Good post that, Dazh
Reagan is interesting 'cos history treats him well- mainly because of his rapprochement with the USSR and the various bomb reduction treaties.
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EVIL.
Tj:
Regan didn't help the middle East, armed Iran rebels stoking sectarianism and Saddam, catastrophic in Lebanon its never settled down since (it was no basket of roses b4 him obvs)
"Does anyone have a view (based on knowledge or experience not opinion) if Trump can actually make good on his promise to bring back manufacturing to the rust belt states?"
No it's a pipe dream - like all gesture politics. And the losers? The poor folk who believe it.
"stoking sectarianism and Saddam,"
Putting/Keeping Saddam in place was very wise. Both at the time and especially in hindsight.
Trade tariffs will only work if there's an alternative, like with cars. Americans drive around in shite cars because foreign cars are expensive to them.
I'm not sure they're going to be able to produce LCD tellies and phones very easily though. So people will start feeling poor when suddenly they can't afford cheap consumer goods, and the ones they need start taking up more of their income.
What Dazh said plus I would add that its easier to borrow money than to save with our historic low interest rates, there is no encouragement to save or invest.
For those saying Trump isn't racist; we can engage in semantics about Mexicans and muslims not being races but overall when you say the things Trump has done, you're a racist. If he doesn't believe what he says it's not somehow "better", it's almost worse because it indicates his willingness to debase and compromise himself in order to appeal to racists and it's not easy to know what depths he's prepared to plumb.
Ditto for misogyny.
Trumps says that the current protests are "unfair".
Wah! Wah! Wah! It no fair! Etc.
😆
the politicians are a symptom, not a cause.
Yes but the politicians are in the unique position of being able to guide and change attitudes and have access to information which the rest of us don't. It's their job to deal with these issues and do what's in the long term interests of the country (probably being naive there!). They can't absolve themselves of this responsibility just because it might make them unpopular. I guess this is the major weakness of democracy. You don't see the Chinese govt setting policy based on opinion polls.
Trumps says that the current protests are "unfair".
Wah! Wah! Wah! It no fair! Etc
What do the protestors want, another election?
They want cheap consumer goods, but don't want manufacturing jobs to be lost to China. They want good public services but don't want to pay the taxes that pay for them. They want gold plated pensions, but aren't prepared to save for them. They don't want to do shitty menial jobs, but complain when foreigners are brought in to do them. They want a clean environment, but aren't prepared to change their behaviour to deliver it.
This is obvious to any people that have a level of awareness and reasoning. The problem is that nobody is making this clear to those that don't.
It needs to be made simple and clear based on the areas you have listed
- Pensions. People are living longer so more money needs to go into them (your money)
- NHS. People are living longer and there are more people so more money needs to go into it (your money)
- Immigration. Country is making profit from immigration and immigrants are not taking your jobs, they are filling gaps/bringing skills/doing jobs UK people don't want to do
- Environment. Not convinced the masses really care about it...
Or you could just not bother with that and blame it all on immigrants
they probably just want to express their angry dismay that the country just voted a racist espousing woman groping egomaniac as leader of their country.What do the protestors want, another election?
Its not hard to see why folk are a wee but angry at this outcome whether you agree with them or not.
Always surprises me how americans have no issue with the electoral college not reflecting the actual votes cast as they did not "really" win and why they dont just add up all the votes and declare that person the most popular.
NB I do understand the system I just dont think it is that good.
Trumps says that the current protests are "unfair".
Wah! Wah! Wah! It no fair! Etc
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😆
"they probably just want to express their angry dismay that the country just voted a racist espousing woman groping egomaniac as leader of their country."
Yeah, but the alternative candidate has carried out Extra-Judicial Assassinations, of brown people.
Yeah, but the alternative candidate has carried out Extra-Judicial Assassinations, of brown people.
Well in that case clearly Trump is none of the things I said and my explanation false.
Is this ninfans new log in ?
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Yes of course voting Trump was two fingers up at the establishment..like he's not part of it.. 🙄
@slowster interesting post and the Regan point is a very good one, widely regarded in the US as the best American President for a long time. @tj many outside the US tried to cast him and Thatcher as about to start WW3 somewhat would ironic if true. When Obama came to power I was so optimistic, the first black Presidemt and a progressive democrat. He leaves with race relations at an all time low and has been terrible in terms of foreign policy especially in Iraq amdwith Iran, he has had some domestic success and by avoding the mob calls to crush the banks made a profit on the bailout and has seen the economy recover.
@dazh agreed, like I say people want to buy bike parts from the internet at the lowest possible price never mind the cost to the local economy when the bike shop closes. A small owner run business paying taxes and giving work experiemce to kids and trainee mechanics vs box shifting mail order with zero-hoir contracts and revenue booked offshore.
@out I don't think an example exists of bringing manufacturing back on a large scale. We have seen Europe protect their market share via tariffs and both China and Germany have a deliberately undervalued currency
American cars ? All BMW X5's are made in the US and the Honda I had there was built in Ohio. Americans like a certain type of (larger) car and they are cheap as is petrol.
Lets see what Trump can do with Apple, Google etc. By my calc Apple alone has avoided $100bn in US taxes. It does seem very bizarre to me that a country with such low personal taxes has such high rates of corporate tax.
Yeah, but the alternative candidate has carried out Extra-Judicial Assassinations, of brown people.
erm so has obama and cameron, your point?
they probably just want to express their angry dismay that the country just voted a racist espousing woman groping egomaniac as leader of their country.
When democracy doesn't work, people take to the streets. Some will say in this case that democracy has worked, because it's resulted in an outsider rising to power, but the US system is designed to prevent this, and now we see why.
If nothing else it shows trump and his supporters that everyone who rejects racism, mysogyny, casual violence and wilful ignorance will not lie down and be trampled over. Grassroots movements like this hardly ever result in direct change, but they influence future events and policy and drag the pendulum back the other way.
"clearly Trump is none of the things I said and my explanation false."
Probably.
He leaves with race relations at an all time low and has been terrible in terms of foreign policy especially
just imagine what Trump can manage!
Lets see what Trump can do with Apple, Google etc. By my calc Apple alone has avoided $100bn in US taxes. It does seem very bizarre to me that a country with such low personal taxes has such high rates of corporate tax.
Chump: Hey Apple, we think that you're not paying enough tax. Could you hand over your accounts, please?
Apple: No probs, you go first.
😆
"so has obama and cameron"
Agree. I have no idea why Hillary's got tarred with all the fallout from the stuff America has done while people equally/more involved got out of it blameless.
Because she is a woman?
when did you just do thisProbably
WHY?
its a bit pointless to snipe childishly form the sidelines
My explanation is sound,
your argument, such that is, is poor.
your trolling is average,
My interest is waning,
My poetry is crap
Like your posts
😉
Trump is talking about growing the economy not creating jobs now.
It may be semantics but watch out poor people you might be about to get Reaganed*.
*well thought of by [i]some[/i] Americans - but definitely not all.
"@out I don't think an example exists of bringing manufacturing back on a large scale. We have seen Europe protect their market share via tariffs and both China and Germany have a deliberately undervalued currency"
I'm inclined to agree, I think Trump's economic plan won't even start. It's Corbynomics, debunked in the 70's.
Have we discussed Ben Carson yet? Oh dear that would be a travesty.
Its basic keynesianism* and it has nothing to do with Corbyn.
It was never debunked though supporting/investing in your people /country/ economy to stimulate it has fallen out of favour and been replaced by neo liberal openness and supply side reform - which tends to mean less rights for workers and fewer "traditional" jobs as we lurch to a supply side economy- in the west as we cannot compete with cheap goods from other countries.
* its well accepted that business must speculate [ or invest] in order to accumulate but for some reason a country MUST not do this and just leave it to the "market".
Ben Carson:
He was the Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Maryland from 1984 until his retirement in 2013. As a pioneer in neurosurgery, Carson's achievements include performing the first and only successful separation of Siamese twins joined at the back of the head, pioneering the first successful neurosurgical procedure on a fetus inside the womb, performing the first completely successful separation of type-2 vertical craniopagus twins, developing new methods to treat brain-stem tumors and reviving hemispherectomy techniques for controlling seizures.[3][4][5][6][7] Carson became the youngest chief of pediatric neurosurgery in the country at age 33.[8] He has received more than 60 honorary doctorate degrees, dozens of national merit citations, and written over 100 neurosurgical publications.[9] In 2008, he was bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian award in the United States.[10]
Ben Carson?
Well, rejecting climate change, believing in creationism & comparing Obamacare to slavery make it difficult to listen to what else he has to say.....but, I'm all ears..?
It was never debunked though supporting/investing in your people /country/ economy to stimulate it has fallen out of favour and been replaced by neo liberal openness and supply side reform - which tends to mean less rights for workers and fewer "traditional" jobs as we lurch to a supply side economy- in the west as we cannot compete with cheap goods from other countries.
* its well accepted that business must speculate [ or invest] in order to accumulate but for some reason a country MUST not do this and just leave it to the "market".
Great, in which it'll work and Trump will make America Great again and Trump's economic policy can be a blueprint for the rest on the world.
It's Corbynomics, debunked in the 70's.
If the Trump presidency, and brexit have shown one thing, it's that the economic system which has been debunked is neo-liberalism. Globalisation is dead and we're back on a path to beggar-thy-neighbour protectionism. You might want to do some research into what resulted from protectionist policies in the 20th century. It didn't end very well.
Straw man is strawyGreat, in which it'll work and Trump will make America Great again and Trump's economic policy can be a blueprint for the rest on the world.
I doubt you are this stupid and i wonder why you put in the effort to come across as such
It's Corbynomics, debunked in the 70's.
So what, try something once, doesn't work, abandon the whole idea completely forever? Never heard of refining an good idea until it works? But, you'll say, it's not a good idea. So why don't you just come out and say that you don't like it for personal reasons, rather than trying to justify your position?
Neoliberalism isn't exactly working, is it? Can we call it debunked yet?
Trump is talking about growing the economy not creating jobs now.
Apparently his Muslim ban pledge has mysteriously disappeared from his campaign website too.
"the economic system which has been debunked is neo-liberalism"
Reality has a liberal bias.
Maybe Trump's got it right. I doubt it. We'll see.
Neoliberalism isn't exactly working, is it? Can we call it debunked yet?
If Trump & Corbyn have got all this right then yes.
Personally I find it hard to believe that a couple of oddballs have spotted something the entire world missed. We will certainly see, now.
EDIT: I removed a line where I said they were both using economic policy to court votes.
Trump is certainly guilty of telling people what they want to hear. Corbyn on the other hand says it out of principle.
You can say what you like about Corbyn's ability to lead a party and win an election, but you can't accuse him of an unprincipled power grab.
Trump is certainly guilty of telling people what they want to hear. Corbyn on the other hand says it out of principle.
Quite right, removed that line.
Muslim comments are back on.
How much is the wealth and army worth to the US economy?
Fighting wars all over the world must be profitable for them so he might get some opposition if he tries to scale it down.
If Trump's got all this right then yes.
Eh? Trump is the living embodiment of Neo-liberalism.
Personally I find it hard to believe that a couple of oddballs have spotted something the entire world missed.
You think this is a niche idea? I'd say across the western world, the supporters of neo-liberalism are in a shrinking minority. It may not seem like it as in the most part the neo-liberal establishment still has it's hands on power and they're fighting a desperate rearguard action against the growing opposition to it. Trump and brexit may well be self-defeating reactions to neo-liberalism, but they prove that people are no longer going to accept the status quo.
[quote=outofbreath ]Ben Carson:
He was the Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Maryland from 1984 until his retirement in 2013. As a pioneer in neurosurgery, Carson's achievements include performing the first and only successful separation of Siamese twins joined at the back of the head, pioneering the first successful neurosurgical procedure on a fetus inside the womb, performing the first completely successful separation of type-2 vertical craniopagus twins, developing new methods to treat brain-stem tumors and reviving hemispherectomy techniques for controlling seizures.[3][4][5][6][7] Carson became the youngest chief of pediatric neurosurgery in the country at age 33.[8] He has received more than 60 honorary doctorate degrees, dozens of national merit citations, and written over 100 neurosurgical publications.[9] In 2008, he was bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian award in the United States.[10]
*Godwin's Law Alert*
Hitler was a vegetarian painter. The big lefty!
Carson's crackers. He could be the most skilled surgeon of all time. He'd still think the earth is 10,000 years old.
Eh? Trump is the living embodiment of Neo-liberalism.
but to win over the disgruntled ex-democrats he used a mixture of far right blame the foreigners rhetoric + less rightwing protectionism + left wing? state infrastructure spending to boost jobs
a kind of national socialism?
Trump is certainly guilty of telling people what they want to hear.
It's funny that though, because much of what he said on the campaign trail he was saying decades ago:
Hitler was a vegetarian painter.
Pretty sure that is a myth. Show me one single vegetarian that he painted.
but to win over the disgruntled ex-democrats he used a mixture of far right blame the foreigners rhetoric + less rightwing protectionism + left wing? state infrastructure spending to boost jobs
a kind of national socialism?
Exactly: He told them exactly what they wanted to hear. However, voting for a neo-liberalist to combat neo-liberalism is like asking the proverbial fox to guard the hen house.
a kind of national socialism
exactly. I also hear Trump is writing a book called "My Fight", watch out for that
And so it begins.
Show me one single vegetarian that he painted.
himself, on the wall of a bunker?
[i]Trump is certainly guilty of telling people what they want to hear.[/i]
It's funny that though, because much of what he said on the campaign trail he was saying decades ago:
Interesting....those old interviews show that he is consistent. Despite the fact that he is a vindictive bully and probably all round nasty individual, I do have a sort of admiration for whats he's just done! 😕
that huffington post report is horrible
just as with brexit, saturating the media with fear and hate of 'others' to win a vote has terrible consequences
just as with Brexit again, those same politicians and campaigners offer no solutions to put that genie back in
Yvette Cooper on Qtime last night:
People judged Clinton on her hair. Nobody judged Trump on his hair.
😆 She really wasn't paying attention.
Im not sure it swung the vote, just part of a larger campaign, shes a demon after all....
another link to a press article on the subject, but I think this one has been put together with an attempt at a higher level understanding than the ranty stuff that is flying around at the moment.
Regardless of personalities etc, and whats happened up to now....looking forwards, can Trump deliver?
America, like the rest of us, likes its cheap goods. And obviously part of that cheapness is provided by lower costs of labour, by overseas work.
If you bring that production back to the US, its going to add to the cost. Prices will rise. Can America stomach that?
....unless he plans on bringing about a massive reduction in internal US labour costs, of course.
you can see the reasons for the anger, but why do they think Trump is the answer to their problems ?
Are you sitting behind a desk all day? Well that’s not hard work. Hard work is someone like me — I’m a logger, I get up at 4:30 and break my back. For my entire life that’s what I’m doing. I’m wearing my body out in the process of earning a living." OKAY I AGREE WITH THAT. But the Republican party is the party that tried to privatize social security and is always looking for a way to reduce and defer SS benefits. So that plays right into the Thomas Frank theory of what's the matter with Kansas - or apparently with Wisconsin. Are "elites" only democrats or does elite mean money. Because the folks in Wisconsin just voted (perhaps) to reduce taxes on elites, reduce their own options for health care, reduce or delay their SS benefits, and eliminate the estate tax. Someone needs to really give me an explanation of how that makes their life any better. In essence, I AM SO MAD AT ELITES I AM GOING TO VOTE TO CUT THEIR TAXES. Tell me how that is getting their voices heard.
you can see the reasons for the anger, but why do they think Trump is the answer to their problems ?
I'm not sure they do: Most just thought he was a better option than Clinton.
"I'm not sure they do: Most just thought he was a better option than Clinton."
Really good point. We talk as though Clinton/Trump voters vote with enthusiasm. In fact we have no idea what their ideal candidate would have looked like.
In fact we have no idea what their ideal candidate would have looked like.
We do know Trump is the least popular republican candidate in recent history.
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you can see the reasons for the anger, but why do they think Trump is the answer to their problems ?
They don't (and he's not). But he was the alternative on the voting card. He wasn't an established politician and he'd voiced 'policies' intended to bolster the US domestic economy. He presented an alternative to the status quo, even if that wasn't the one people actually wanted.
He presented an alternative to the status quo, even if that wasn't the one people actually wanted.
Yet fewer people voted for him than they have for republican candidates in the past. He failed badly. Luckily for him Clinton was an even bigger failure.
Though disgruntled "blue collar workers" (I dislike that term) played a part I don't think it's what won it for Trump (And the Senate & Congress for GOP)... It was probably down to the middle classes not liking Obamacare, they see it as people getting something for nothing while they have to pay through the nose and work hard for theirs. The politics of envy.
"He presented an alternative to the status quo, even if that wasn't the one people actually wanted."
5th Elephant's post leads me to suspect we're all over thinking this.
Looks to me like ~60m people vote Republican whether it's Ghandi or a Chimpanzee on the ticket.
Unfortunately the Democrats picked a candidate who was so unpopular in her own party she couldn't beat the Republican core vote.
America, like the rest of us, likes its cheap goods. And obviously part of that cheapness is provided by lower costs of labour, by overseas work.If you bring that production back to the US, its going to add to the cost. Prices will rise. Can America stomach that?
....unless he plans on bringing about a massive reduction in internal US labour costs, of course.
I think that the idea that low labour costs elsewhere, especially in China, means that it's generally simply not economically viable for US (and UK/EU) based manufacturing businesses to compete is too readily accepted, and that the costs vs benefits are a lot more finely balanced than the simple comparison of the hourly rate of a Chinese worker and his American counterpart:
- as I understand it, Chinese labour costs have been rising in the last decade
- China industrialised very rapidly and threw up a lot of factories - many with state money - in a very short period of time, because they knew that almost no matter what they might get wrong, the labour costs were so low that mistakes would not matter. I think many of those factories as a result and the skills/quality of their employees are not as good as their USA/EU equivalents (less efficient, poorer quality product etc.), and as a result they will struggle to maintain a competitive edge without an (artificially?) low currency exchange rate and state bank subsidies.
- China has a major problem with corruption, and that also damages their competiveness
- A lot of businesses have repatriated functions back from the Far East, in order to regain control of quality/product safety, simplify the supply chain, to guard intellctual property, and because it is simply cheaper to do so.
So I suspect that the main obstacles to an increase in USA manufacturing are not so much the operating costs (energy/wages etc.) and more the barriers to entry of the costs of starting up by building or de-mothballing plants, and even those now may not be as great as before. For example, my understanding is that high tech semi-conductor manufacturing facilities have a fairly short lifespan, and it's often easier/cheaper for the manufacturers to build a new factory for the next generation of chips, rather than try to upgrade their existing factories.
The USA has a lot of advantages for starting up new manufacturing: loads of space, lots of natural resources, a flexible/mobile workforce and a labour market/laws that favour the employer, and low energy costs. If corporations also know that the government (Trump or otherwise) is actively going to support them, that could strongly encourage them to invest more inside the USA.
If they have any shortages, it might be temporary gaps in some of the workforce skills, in which case they can do what America has always done, and encourage immigration to fill the gaps (Give me [s]your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free[/s] your ambitious go-getting degree qualified Mexican or Chinese production engineer).