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Trump is dangerous because not only is he popular with a solid base vote but because established politicians are unpopular.
Yes. The key thing with Trump is despite the claims about him being some political chess grandmaster knowing what the audience wants and carefully feeding it if you look at his history, including unsuccessful presidental bids, its clear he isnt. He is the same one trick pony he was years ago.
What changed was a mix of higher media presence due to the apprentice and seemingly a change in the preferences of people so he now appealed to many.
He is a symptom and not the cause.
Without the pandemic there would have been a very good chance of him winning in 2020.
in truth republicans hold onto their base regardless along with gerrymandering the **** out everywhere. The elephant on the badge would have polled just as well as Trump.
What klunk says, plus don't forget that the most impressive thing about his victory of 2016 is that he won with 3 million less votes.
Factor in that voter registration in the US is ridiculously low and gerrymandering leaves the political map of the US looking like the West Bank. Add in voter suppression and the imbalance of the Senate then the country could better be described as a developing / regressing democracy.
Accepting as fact that the USA is a democracy the like that which we have in Europe (or many other, including 'developing' nations) is a critical mistake. Trump and the Republicans in general are so far from representing the will of the people in any reasonable shape or form
In 2020 he also increased his vote by an extra 11 million compared to 2016 which suggests that he managed to hold on to his base vote.
No, what happened is that there were a lot of disenchanted people who gave up on voting but liked Trump's America First posturing. Many of those voters had been Democratic voters, but they did not like the globalist direction the Democratic party has gone in. So, he stole a bunch of voters who had once been Democratic supporters.
However, he also antagonized an even larger group of moderate Republican voters - people with college degrees and white-collar jobs. Those people switched from voting Republican to voting Democratic in the Presidential race, but still voted Republican in the Congressional races.
In 2016, he was able to present himself as a successful business mogul who could make deals and was interested in solving problems. It didn't take long for moderates to notice that he was lousy at making deals and seemed more interested in race baiting than governing. The Republican party got utterly thumped in the 2018 mid-term elections because Trump was so offensive to moderate voters.
The 2020 election had the highest turnout in history. Part of that was Trump motivating his base voters to turn out, but what was fatal for him was that his offensiveness also motivated moderates to turn out to vote against him. Every moderate who switched a vote from Republican to Democrat was worth two base voters. Convincing moderates to switch parties is not the work of a political genius. FFS, he lost in Georgia and then did everything he could to lose both Senate seats in Georgia out of spite. He's a political moron.
+1 Ernie
Trump is dangerous because not only is he popular with a solid base vote but because established politicians are unpopular. No amount of hating Trump will change that.
And yet, otherwise intelligent people still yet underestimate populism. Not only that, but they also hold a dream that the masses shall tire of it anytime soon when history shows it to behave like a virus.
for both republicans and democrats it's getting the nomination that counts, assuming both sides bases vote as expected the election is then decided by a very few floating voters in the battleground states. All the Orange Idiot had to do was show some semblance of competence and compassion over COVID and he would have been a shoe in.
Trump is dangerous because not only is he popular with a solid base vote but because established politicians are unpopular. No amount of hating Trump will change that.
I don't disagree with any of that, and I still think Trump is a dangerous and volatile presence in US politics that isn't going to go away any time soon. I disagree with you about your assessment of him using "normal" political analysis. I think his 2016 success was based on the fact that he wasn't (and still isn't) anything other than just Trump.
Trying to ascribe to him any deeper political motivation other than he wants to be president because he feels it's rightfully his job for as long as he wants it, and shouldn't have to suffer losing, is a fool's errand, and masks how to defeat him should he try to run again. As thols2 points out, Biden did it by basically saying "Hey everybody, I'm not Trump" and not setting out anything other than that.
Trying to ascribe to him any deeper political motivation other than he wants to be president
I'm not sure where you got that from but I'm sorry if that was the impression I gave.
No of course Trump isn't motivated by political conviction, hence my comment that he will pursue policies which he doesn't necessarily agree with because he knows that it will give him popular support.
And his policies, the border wall, banning of Muslims entering the US, aggressive attitude to China, isolationism, Second Amendment, climate change denial, etc etc, were absolutely vital and central to his successful bid to become US president.
Not enough people voted for Trump due to his great hairstyle and tiny hands to tilt the election in his favour, it needed a bit more.
But whilst Trump isn't motivated by political conviction he is clearly motivated by narcissism and ego, that was the driving force behind his bid to be US president.
It would a mistake however to dismiss Trump as a one-off never to be repeated aberration. He still has a massive influence within the Republican Party, and the deeply flawed US democratic model could quite realistically throw up another US president just as obnoxious, or even worse, than Trump.
Which is just one more reason why the rest of the world needs to minimise US influence and also minimise dependency on the US.
I don't think anyone is dismissing Trump as a one time aberration, we are all well aware of the threat that he continues to pose.
That's why I commented on the fragility of the US constitution and political processes. I've just watched that N.Y. Times film covering the timeline of the Capitol riot.
I think for most Americans those scenes would have been impossible to conceive a decade ago and the idea that something like that could happen without any consequences would have been laughable.
The reason we have traditionally turned a blind eye to the shortcomings of the United States is because they helped save us from the Germans (twice) and the Soviets.
Alliances, (like the European union) provide security. With an emerging China and a malevolent Russia I don't think isolating ourselves from America is a particularly great idea.
Trumps base is so disparate, all kinds voted for him, 2 years ago I cycled down the east coast from Maine to Key West, I met so many people who thought he was an embarrassment but were Republicans. You had old people living in small towns who believed him when he told them he would bring the jobs back, you have religious fanatics, racists and xenophobes and people who just wanted something different.
He is still dangerous but I believe his influence is waning.
And his policies, the border wall, banning of Muslims entering the US, aggressive attitude to China, isolationism, Second Amendment, climate change denial, etc etc, were absolutely vital and central to his successful bid to become US president.
But none of these were his policies, they're Steve Bannon's, and he was sacked. Bannon rose briefly to power on the back of Trump's success and then realised like many other Americans on the right did, that Trump's not really Their Man. The danger is what comes after him.
It would a mistake however to dismiss Trump as a one-off never to be repeated aberration.
I don't think anyone on this thread has TBH, but at the same time, things aren't the same as they were in 2016 when many Americans fell for his "Successful Businessman Goes to Washington to Sort out the Politicians" schtick, which turned out to be empty promises, and a failed and embarrassing 1st term. While many undoubtedly voted for him again in 2020; he was the incumbent, and still had the voice of Facebook, Twitter etc behind him, and none of those things are true anymore.
But none of these were his policies,
Yes they were his policies, they were very clearly his policies. If you are suggesting they were someone elses idea then that is another issue and frankly irrelevant, the important thing is that they were his policies.
Andrew Fisher wrote the 2017 Labour Party election manifesto, would you suggest that the policies in the Labour manifesto weren't Jeremy Corbyn's policies?
If you are suggesting they were someone elses idea then that is another issue and frankly irrelevant,
No, it's entirely the point, and not irrelevant. The point is Trump couldn't care less what "his policies" are/were That they may align with a particular party or group is entirely co-incidental, and subject to change at any point should they become no longer useful. For Trump, being Trump the Real Estate businessman and Trump the President are entirely the same thing, only with bigger toys. You can't compare Trump with any other politician, he isn't one, and doesn't share that outlook.
The point is Trump couldn’t care less what “his policies”
We are just going round in circles, I've lost count how many times I have repeated that Trump had policies which he himself didn't necessarily believe in. I have no idea why you choose to ignore that.
And yes Trump wasn't a politician, which is precisely why he appealed to so many in his base support. He even drove the point home that time when before a huge rally and he started to dismantle the autocue from the lectern, his adoring supporters loved it.
I don't know why you keep attributing opinions to me which I have never expressed nick. Perhaps it's just an irresistible urge to disagree with me?
Edit: It was a teleprompter, whatever the difference is.
I met so many people who thought he was an embarrassment but were Republicans.
I think I've said it before in this thread, but I have family and friends here who hated what Trump represented but still voted for him because he was the Rep candidate. They never vote Dem so they would vote Rep regardless of how much they disliked the candidate. They believe the Rep rhetoric that the Dems are bad for the economy, and that's it. Everything else is superfluous to what they are concerned with. It's a baffling idea.
Everything else is superfluous to what they are concerned with. It’s a baffling idea.
I guess it depends on how much you fear the other side. Admittedly it is odd considering the majority of the democrats would be considered slightly right wing anywhere with a sensible political compass but there has been years of conditioning.
One reason why Trump got support to begin with was because of the chance to stuff the judicial system with a bunch of right wing judges (again hard to comprehend in any sensible system) which is one of the few things he achieved not just at the supreme court level but lower down which means the legal system is swung rightwards for probably a generation.
Trump came clean about (some of) his dishonesty and receives adulation for it from his fans.
Populism and performance. All Forever Trumpists really care about deep down is that he’s ‘on their side’. Their ‘Us vs Them’ pleasure-centres are getting lubed up and tickled with each and every of his cheeky oh so naughty utterances. Their amygdalas are aching for his performance. Now he plays the oppressed victim, for just long enough to buy some stage presence and then *boom* he’s back into the clownish man-baby mob-boss act, mincing along their mesolimbic pathways delivering visions of ‘Our’ victory and vengeance over ‘Them’.
He could say literally anything and they’d love him for it. He knows this. Fake news. Real news. Alternative ‘news’. #itsallthesame
Trump had policies which he himself didn’t necessarily believe in. I have no idea why you choose to ignore that.
I'm not ignoring it, I'm disagreeing with it.
I don’t know why you keep attributing opinions to me which I have never expressed
I've no idea what this even means.
This is pretty mad:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/14/politics/donald-trump-election-coup-new-book-excerpt/index.html
That book looks fun. Confirms a lot of what was being talked about on here at the time.
I wonder what would happen if the Kremlin got hacked wiki leaks style
Just read that article @kimbers, it just confirms what was widely rumoured. I wonder if the Brexit interference will get leaked at some point!?
@eskay - not in the UK press, I expect NY Times / Washington Post / Der Spiegel are more likely to cover it
So much discussion about Trump, despite the election being long over and done with.
.
It's almost like you miss him 😕
Just read that article @kimbers, it just confirms what was widely rumoured. I wonder if the Brexit interference will get leaked at some point!?
This would be explosive, but not unexpected. The problem here is that a number of very vocal hard right libertarians were able to co-opt the help of Russia, pro-deregulation advocates in the US and of course a UK media furious at the UK government for the Leveson Inquiry. I can't see the majority of the UK press giving this much headline space, unless there's a significant volte-face in central government and the various hard-right think tanks currently dictating policy.
It’s almost like you miss him
Its because Trump is as much a symptom rather than the cause.
So much discussion about Trump, despite the election being long over and done with.
But it's not over and done with, is it?
People are currently being held accountable for attempting to overturn the election and indeed the US democratic process.
Also losing the election doesn't mean that Trump no longer has any influence.
The important priority for those who want to guarantee and defend the US democratic model, plus those who want to continue to minimise Trump's influence, is to relentless pursue the issue.
So much discussion about Trump, despite the election being long over and done with.
.It’s almost like you miss him 😕
Trumps presidency (and his actions beyond it) won't stop being a topic for conversation in our lifetimes. His entourage and enablers and anyone who witnessed theirs actions will spend the rest of their careers and even lifetimes being investigated and interrogated, either through the courts or through journalism and documentary, on his actions and theirs during the last few years.
In a sense the only thing that stopped any of the scandal's during his campaign and presidency from being brought to account was the fact there was another scandal the next day, perhaps even in the next few hours - we'll be pick through the bones of it all for decades.
Thats not unprecedented though - on any given eventing I doubt you could flick through the TV channels from end to end and not find either documentary or drama focus on either Adolf Hitler or his actions. I don't think thats because anyone misses him though.
...documentary or drama focus on either Adolf Hitler or his actions. I don’t think thats because anyone misses him though.
Except maybe Donald Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/06/donald-trump-hitler-michael-bender-book
So much discussion about Trump, despite the election being long over and done with.
I've just ordered a book about Nixon King Richard and Watergate that was published this year!
I was reading about Marcus Aurelius recently.
I wonder what would happen if the Kremlin got hacked wiki leaks style
If the Kremlin was hacked it would be by the Kremlin. The Kremlin would then say that it can't be proved that they hacked the Kremlin and also tell you how tall Salisbury Cathedral is. The individuals who it can't be proved hacked the Kremlin on behalf of the Kremlin would then be given their own TV talkshows.
latest brain fart from the orange bawbag
Joe Biden kept talking about how good of a job he's doing on the distribution of the Vaccine that was developed by Operation Warp Speed or, quite simply, the Trump Administration. He's not doing well at all. He's way behind schedule, and people are refusing to take the Vaccine because they don't trust his Administration, they don't trust the Election results, and they certainly don't trust the Fake News, which is refusing to tell the Truth.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1420600684626522113
https://twitter.com/MRecreate/status/1420606309011841025
Seems like inciting insurrection might be illegal.
Even standing by and doing nothing when you could do something is illegal.
Done with pretending, getting to the point now.
https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1422289832416448534
I mean.... whats wrong with these people?
Edit: I've looked her up, what's wrong with her is that she's a shitbag of the highest order. Full on racist, white supremacist and conspiracy theorist. I know UK/Australian politics isn't a shining-light of everything a functioning democracy should be, but at the point that people like this are getting into positions of authority, something has gone seriously wrong.
You can't argue with that.
Bawbags be bawbagging.
He really holds a grudge doesn't he?
He really must have a truly miserable existence
Some of these people have believed the kool-aid they drank for years.
Will they ever give up or see through it?
I don't get 'mericans and their politics.
Hey, but at least he is showing an interest in women's sport.
He’s issued a statement on that?
Is it some sort of parody?
Radical group of leftist maniacs? Its a footy team!
taking the knee = radical left
So Texas voted Democrat….
I just don't get his motivation. I spend a lot of time wishing I could win the lottery, quit my job then spend the rest of my life living in the background, quietly getting on with my hobbies.
Trump is in his 70's. He can live comfortably, quietly, play golf, hang out with sex workers. Why doesn't he just shut up and live what is left of his life? Does being this angry make him happy?
I just don’t get his motivation.
He likes being the center of attention. He's an extreme narcissist. Losing to Joe Biden utterly destroyed his self-image so the idea that he was cheated serves to shield him from the reality that he's a massive loser.
I just don’t get his motivation.
Grift. The far-right is absolutely mired in professional grifting.
Whenever Trump talks, something is quietly happening to roll back rights somewhere, it's always best to keep one's eye on what Republican controlled states are up to.
Trump is in his 70’s. He can live comfortably, quietly, play golf, hang out with sex workers. Why doesn’t he just shut up and live what is left of his life? Does being this angry make him happy?
Aye,as thols says,he's an extreme narcissist and will be forever angry that he can't buy the one thing he really want's the most,admiration and respect.
He is a massive fake,and even with all the riches in the world,he will never be content.
I just don’t get his motivation. I spend a lot of time wishing I could win the lottery, quit my job then spend the rest of my life living in the background, quietly getting on with my hobbies.
Loser. The point of having money is to make more money and have people treat you like something out of 17th pre revolutionary France.
Does being this angry make him happy?
I genuinely think that if you ever got to ask Trump that he'd struggle to understand why you think he was angry. As far as he's concerned the "normal way of the world" should be that men* like him should be in charge, and should be able to do whatever they want when ever they want, and not have anyone tell them that they can't do anything and you should do what he says and show nothing but total loyalty...In fact if you didn't want to do that, he'd probably ask you what was wrong with you.
*and it's always men...
They are in a truly, dangerously, parallel universe....
And yet these deluded idiots appear to win every single time because they shout loudly, spout their deluded crap and refuse to compromise. Other people _have_ to compromise to even get these lunatics to sit at a table and that just makes them think that they have the edge, which they do.
You can't reason with them. You can't apply logic to them. You can't debate with them.
Fox news have been on shaky ground for a while. The problem is the news part of the operation do generally stick to broadly accurate news and so cant help but upset the maganuts from time to time. While the opinion part of the operation do their best to make up for it even they sometimes fail to respect the glorious leader enough.
You can’t reason with them. You can’t apply logic to them. You can’t debate with them.
They are as fundamentally nut as the Taliban or ISIS
That Madison Cawthorn parody account has been at it again.
https://twitter.com/wahoolaw2006/status/1425267202794610690
They are as fundamentally nut as the Taliban or ISIS
A very fair comparison I think.
Well, today's the day the supreme court is going to reinstate Trump 9-0 after Mike Lindell's devastating election packet captures were to have been revealed yesterday.
But it's not going well for him.
https://twitter.com/ErrataRob/status/1425987624456671239
Seems like there's no data. Those packet captures scrolling past were just some RTF files converted to hex.
The prize of $5M that was on offer to anyone who could "prove the election was not stolen" has been pulled.
converted to hex
Well, if Hex can bring the dead back to life, he's probably the one guy that can resurrect this lawsuit.
Today's the day Biden resigns though! Pretty exciting, I didn't really think we'd get there but here we are, history in the making. Any second now
^^^ Trump is ready and waiting
That hand is waaayyyy too big to be Donnie.
True,must be a FAKE hand