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How long does it take USA to declare a result after polling day (not withstanding Court challenges etc)? Is like UK where the result is declared overnight after polling closes?
Candidates can claim victory at whatever point they wish, although their opponents don't have to concede, even if the numbers are overwhelming.
Normally there are enough votes counted to give a firm indication of the state of the electoral college fairly quickly, but this year, given the quantity of mail-in voting and the likely very high turnout, things are different.
But if Trump is ahead on the night (mail-ins tend to favour the Dems), he will declare victory and the epic shitshow of his presidency will roll on towards the Supreme Court he has now stuffed with Republican hacks for this very purpose.
The amount of attempted voter suppression going on is remarkable. GOP officials trying to get mail-in ballots ruled out unless they are received by election day, regardless of the date stamp on the envelope, postal services being hobbled to try to assist this, plus the normal rabble of MAGA idiots and thugs picketing voting places.
The US is in a very bad place right now. It's possible they could lance the boil in November, but there remains an ocean of pus and decay to be pushed out.
What worries me is that if Trump challenges the election results then that could be a dog whistle to the meatheads to get their ARs out.
Is that a video of America's Mayor inviting a news reader round to his office to look at [alleged] child pornography? Yikes!
You'd think that if Giuliani was in possession of a laptop containing those sort of images then he'd have turned it over the appropriate law enforcement authority. That's what any sane person would do. If he's sitting on such a thing (and I don't believe that he is for a moment) then using it as political capital would constitute withholding evidence.
It's all getting a bit silly now, the Republican Party and it's media affiliates like Hannity etc are in complete meltdown.
Plenty of support for Trump to do all sorts of military things, I think.
Ha ha, chopper fail, Russian chopper on flag. Prob Russian grenade launcher too. (I know it’s a photoshop Rambo image BTW)
Seems the American Psychological Association have announced the definitive diagnosis of Angry Tinkerbell’s mental state, and I apologise in advance for the profanity in the URL...
http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2020/10/29/trump-diagnosed-as-being-a-****/
A more serious assessment of what his toxic, malignant narcissism could lead to if he loses here...
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/28/trump-narcissism-psychology-election-loss-pathology-personality-disorders/
All getting very interesting!
For those concerned that Hillary was ahead in 16 and "the polls were wrong.." the article linked to below covers it very succinctly. In brief though if they are as wrong this time as they were four years ago, Biden still wins, albeit not by a landslide. They'd have to be significantly worse than four years ago (& even then they still got the popular vote more or less right, it was Trump flipping the rustbelt that nobody saw happening) for Trump to win.
Given that they've spent the last four years tightening up their methodologies, this is somewhat unlikely. Can't rule it out 100% of course, but still very unlikely.
Anyway, Grauniad article below, I've got fingers tightly crossed and will be having a sleepless night on Wednesday night!
The tactics of Assert, Double Down and Deflect that have served people like Giuliani well since 2016 aren't winning over undecided voters. I wonder how many Trumpets are dumb enough to take Giuliani's assertion that he has proof of wrongdoing serious given that Giuliani has so far failed to provide any proof of wrongdoing.
Holy shamoly, that video is plain bat sh/t nuts. Like something out of goodfellas.
"You want proof? You want proof you motherfing cucksocker? I'll give you proof. I'll rant and rant and rant and rant. Then I'll rant some more"
Unbelievable. Stinks of desperation. I guess when he learned that Tucker had somehow lost the goldplatedwithfingerprintstimestampsandsignatures only copy of the proof, it sent him off his rocker.
Imagine, you spend years gumshoing around the world taking down the biggest corruption scandal on the face of the planet and one talkshow host destroys it all.
Enough to drive a man to drink.
Either that or it's the actions of a man seeing the real likelihood of a Dem president a Dem House and a Dem Senate, and who knows that if that's the case, well....the Feds are going to be paying him a visit sometime very soon..
When this thread started did we not used to have some trump supporters on here? Have even they gone
I really wish we could alter the swearfilter on this thread so we could saw what we think without it being asterisked out
Anyway, Grauniad article below, I’ve got fingers tightly crossed and will be having a sleepless night on Wednesday night!
There's a strong change of long delayed results due to the way that absentee ballots are counted, there's also a risk that exit polls will be significantly out due to the fact that more republicans vote in person that democrats.
All in all its going to be very unclear, until it isn't.
Could be a good night to binge watch the west wing on all 4.
#Bartlettforamerica
I love the mental gymnastics that allow people to simultenously believe in Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats, and Joe Biden The Prince Of Darkness, and the Democrats Who Will Kill God. Either one is quite hard to believe, but both at once, that's impressive.
When this thread started did we not used to have some trump supporters on here? Have even they gone
I'm pretty sure that at least two have been banned for generally being horrible and abusive, while most of those prepared to give Trump the benefit of the doubt in 2016 will have seen the shtshow that's happened since. There's another who likes to pop in for a quick non-sequitur every now and again, but noone takes them seriously.
As other have said before, I'll breathe a sigh of relief only *if* Biden & Harris win next week. I suspect that the GOP camp are launching an exercise of damage limitation by bolstering their message to their core voters and settling for domination of the Supreme Court. Even if Trump wins, the effects of their super-spreader rallies will make the winter very bleak for many.
A big unknown is how many votes will actually end up being counted. There will be people who intend to vote but won't make it due to voter suppression tactics. People have to queue for hours as polling stations have been slashed, and many of the poor cannot afford the time off work. And some people won't be able to physically get there. Then there are people who will have asked for a mail in ballot then end up missing the deadline or otherwise deciding to vote in person - this ends up being a provisional ballot and this may not be counted (I think anyway).
Lots of shit can still happen.
The provisional ballot thing is a concern. Especially with those who requested postal votes and then decide to go in person. As I understand it each state can decide how they respond, for instance they could cancel the postal and issue them with an in-person. Or make it provisional in which case they only come into play if it's close. Guess which option most Republican controlled states are going for..
Which in turn could lead to some interesting court cases..
However, after months thinking and worrying about all of this I'm going to come off the fence and say that Biden (aka The Prince of Darkness) will win and win big. Enough so that it will be done and dusted on the day
(I touched wood after writing this. Just like Rudi..)
Quote from Philly DA...
“We’ve never really had to be concerned that a bunch of knuckleheads were going to show up to the polls with guns,” Krasner said. “If they do it this time, they’re going to have a problem.”
Meanwhile, the supreme court is continuing to rule that they shouldn't change any invervene with regards to state electoral rules, meaning that among other things, postal votes received after 8pm on election day won't count in Wisconsin. Not that the count ends at 8pm on election day, or anything, it's just their arbitrary limitation that probably isn't that big of a deal normally, but is a bit more of a big deal when there's a pandemic on and people aren't receiving their ballots in time, and the mailing of ballots is likely to be delayed.
So, it seems like all decisions of this sort, unless they're actually unlawful/constitutional, are in the hands of local courts.
I love the mental gymnastics that allow people to simultenously believe in Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats, and Joe Biden The Prince Of Darkness, and the Democrats Who Will Kill God.
It's Doublethink straight out of the 1984 playbook:
If you want to keep a secret, you must also hide it from yourself. Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them. Until they became conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious.
I love the mental gymnastics that allow people to simultenously believe in Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats, and Joe Biden The Prince Of Darkness, and the Democrats Who Will Kill God.
https://www.faena.com/aleph/articles/umberto-eco-a-practical-list-for-identifying-fascists/
8. The enemy is both weak and strong. “[…] the followers must be convinced that they can overwhelm the enemies. Thus, by a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”
I love the mental gymnastics that allow people to simultenously believe in Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats, and Joe Biden The Prince Of Darkness, and the Democrats Who Will Kill God.
See also the people who passionately believe the government is tyrannical and its power should be massively curtailed, but then cheers the police for murdering black people and beating up protestors they disagree with, and cheers a president who won't say if he will accept the results of an election.
Any suggestions for the donald j trump presidential library?
First up, a McDonalds menu.
Any suggestions for the donald j trump presidential library?
I think there's fairly genuine concern that the Trump administration will try to shred and burn as much of the incriminating evidence as they can before the Biden administration takes over. There may not be much left to actually put in a library. Maybe whatever prison he ends up in can let them use a supplies closet for his library.
Not sure if this is the most *ed up thing of the day, let alone the week, but it's pretty *ed up.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1322383381003468800
Any suggestions for the donald j trump presidential library?
The Washington Post have already built it and its fully stocked ; The Fact Checker Database
That former president is still making him look bad.
https://twitter.com/OliviaRaisner/status/1322664700052705283
That's just brilliant.
All Trump would do with that basketball is tell his spray tanner that he wants to be the same colour as it
If Joe Biden wins then it will truly be God Save America. i.e. God has to save America.
If you think President Trump is worst then looking at smiley smiley Joe I think he is mentally incapable. This guy (Biden) gives me the feeling that something is wrong.
Yes, President Trump might grab your cat but at least he is sound albeit a bit un-presidential.
Mentally sound. He ticks the boxes for about half the dsm
Yes, President Trump might grab your cat but at least he is sound albeit a bit un-presidential.
Wow. So your argument is that he’s unpresidential (strongly agree) and he’ll sexually assault you/your sister/child/wife but that’s all ok because he’s “sound”?
I mean he’s obviously a failure and completely unsound, but the fact that you’re willing to overlook all the terrible and criminal stuff is really telling. I appreciate your honesty, I suppose.
Troll keeps trolling, killfile is your friend.
Yes, President Trump might grab your cat but at least he is sound
LMAO. Trump can't walk down a ramp unaided, he thought a mental acuity test was super difficult. He's totally not sound, that's the problem.
https://twitter.com/Brwnidgl333/status/1321642602387525632
Wow. So your argument is that he’s unpresidential (strongly agree) and he’ll sexually assault you/your sister/child/wife but that’s all ok because he’s “sound”?
There is no argument to be found, only trolling.
Troll keeps trolling, killfile is your friend.
So much this. Killfile, ignore and move on, if no-one responds there will be a non-sequitur along in a minute.
Yes, President Trump might grab your cat but at least he is sound
I have no idea what the basis for that is.
I think it's established that he's not morally, financially or politically sound.
It’s absolutely provable that The Donald is anything but sound! He is a malignant narcissist, which is a personality disorder and completely untreatable; he is not mentally ill, chewkw, do yourself a favour, son, and read this article, then come back and admit you’re hopelessly wrong.
https://www.upworthy.com/psychologist-explains-trumps-lack-of-conscience-and-why-his-base-loves-it#toggle-gdpr
It’s absolutely provable that The Donald is anything but sound!
Unfortunately, our pet troll is going to troll. Move on, nothing to see here.
In other news (from May) Apprentice producer Noel Casler on Trump.
That former president is still making him look bad.
Obama getting buckets! Lefty too. My favourite thing about him is how he played ball before election results.
Some scary folks have guns in 'merica.
From what I know about Texas (from films/TV) and Trump supporters, I’d be very surprised if they weren’t all armed. That’s not to say they’re not awful people but pushing the fact that they were armed in America’s Deep South isn’t going to surprise many people, and it certainly isn’t going to sway any ‘moderate’ Texans towards a dem vote.
Looks like the FBI are involved now, because the local police apparently seemed to be unable to help - perhaps they’re on Team Trump. The wheels are coming off the US’s democracy.
I have no idea what the basis for that is
And so to more stuff looking at the probabilities around Trump or Biden winning. The article below looks at how the polling is (or isn't) getting it right and how this year compares to 2016. Spoiler - if the polls (nationally and by state) are wrong to the same extent as they were in 2016, Biden wins. The tension is killing me..
A possible insight into trump's attitude and behaviour when the polls close.
Yes, I know, this has been speculated about but now appears to have substance to it.
https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e…
Broken link (404)?
Should be? https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9ea3-0ccfb47f613f.html
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I think it’s established that he’s not morally, financially or politically sound.
Nor for that matter is he economically, ecumenically or ecologically sound..
colournoise - weird; mine was a direct copy'n'paste from the Axios website but thanks for putting up a working link.
Jesus ****ing Christ!!! Tonight's Simpsons is not even trying to straddle the fence. Amazing stuff.
eddiebaby
Full Member
Jesus **** Christ!!! Tonight’s Simpsons is not even trying to straddle the fence. Amazing stuff.
Missed it. I'll have to go looksie.👍
Pollster that predicted 2016 for Trump says he will win again. Warning, this could be complete BS.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn
It's an interesting one, Trafalgar group are outlier pollsters, use relatively low quality polling methods like recorded questionnaires, only canvas mobiles. Their polling this last few weeks has consistently favoured Trump by a few points (sometimes more) over the others (apart from maybe Rasmussen, but they've been less bullish)
It's a tough one, he could just have got lucky last time. Lest we forget Trump won the electoral college by the skin of his teeth last time, this time polls are significantly more in Biden's favour so that a repeat of the polling discrepancies from 16 still sees him win.
I'm going to call it that this guy stumbled upon an anomaly last time, but history won't repeat itself
Thing is, established pollsters depend on getting it right. Pollsters/forecasters who want to make a name for themselves depend on getting it right AND having it be noteworthy that they got it right. Being the company that called it right for Trump twice would be a brammer of a CV, and they don't really have that much to lose by getting it right once and wrong once.
That's probably more the case with orgs like Trafalgar, whose methods are, well, more open to interpretation. If they want a "Trump will win" poll result they can certainly craft it without it being eyeopening. Whereas again for more established/bigger pollsters, a change in methodology that secures a change in result is also generally noticable.
Another place you see more of a Trump lean is the surprisingly effective "how will your neighbours vote" question. It's obviously massively open to biases and assumptions, but, it's one of the questions that actually works pretty well in a surprising amount of situations. Ask someone how they'll vote and weirdly, they'll often lie- shy tory syndrome. But few people have any reason to lie when you ask directly about their neighbour, they just might not be right.
Mmm. You know he's just pulling a silly face, right? It's not like that's some involuntary thing like his usual face-spasms, or like he's mocking a disabled person or something, you know, the usual trump stuff- he's just hamming up for the crowd.
He looks ridiculous, but why is it news?
Yes, President Trump might grab your cat but at least he is sound
He looks ridiculous, but why is it news?
Because there's a pandemic on and the President is clowning around showing that he's unfit for his office.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1323134403623616513
https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1323098735027515392
Thing is, established pollsters depend on getting it right. Pollsters/forecasters who want to make a name for themselves depend on getting it right AND having it be noteworthy that they got it right. Being the company that called it right for Trump twice would be a brammer of a CV, and they don’t really have that much to lose by getting it right once and wrong once.
That’s probably more the case with orgs like Trafalgar, whose methods are, well, more open to interpretation. If they want a “Trump will win” poll result they can certainly craft it without it being eyeopening. Whereas again for more established/bigger pollsters, a change in methodology that secures a change in result is also generally noticable.
Agreed. Perhaps they were indeed more onto the 'non-college educated white voters' thing than anyone else, particularly in the rust belt. Hence their call. But the others are all over this now. As you say they've not got anything to lose and could easily be gaming their surveys for a false positive.
Covered some stuff around polls and NCEWVs on the other thread. I'll post it here too, interesting and as far as I can see, short if outright fraud pretty much writes Trump off..
And here it is. Can't see how he can win given he's lost tonnes of support from the very demographic that go him elected last time..
Huge poll from Morning Consult just dropped. Canvassed 14,500 likely voters (most polls have a sample size between 600 and 1500). This means it has a margin of error of +/- 1% (as opposed to the normal +/- of 3-4%). So very accurate.
Puts Biden on 52% to Trump’s 44%. So 8% lead.
Which tallies with the last 6 national polls prior to this one, which average at 7.85% lead for Biden.
Turnout this year is going to be very high. Some saying as high as 150million.
If we say 140million to be safe, 52% gives Biden 73million votes, Trump has 61.5. So an additional 11.5 million votes for Biden.
In 2016 Clinton beat Trump by just under 3million votes and he just managed to scrape through the electoral college.
This time Biden has an additional 8.5 million votes over and above what Clinton had.
Critically though, the electoral college doesn’t work on a pure majority, and in theory Trump can win again using the same base that won it for him. Namely white voters and specifically non college educated white voters.
However, in order to do this he needs a properly convoluted route to win, most likely by taking Texas and Florida and Georgia (two too close to call and one within margin of error, with Biden ahead by 3 points in Florida and .2% in Georgia, and Trump ahead by .7% in Texas) as well as taking enough from the rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio and Iowa). Biden is ahead by 8% in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by 5% in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Nevertheless if we accept that Minnesota and Wisconsin are too far out for the Orange baboon, then he needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania (despite being 5 points down) as well as Ohio (.7% up and Iowa (2% up). In Texas he’s 1.3% ahead, albeit the latest large scale poll (Morning consult again with margin of +/- 1%) shows a dead heat. Georgia is essentially all square, and Florida Biden is up 3%.
So Trump needs to win a bunch of states, all of which he is either behind in (in two states by more than 5%, above the standard margin of error) or essentially all square, other than Ohio and Iowa, both of which are well within the margin.
So doable, but very, very difficult.
However, where it gets really interesting is HOW he won in 2016, or more accurately WHO won it for him.
In 2016 Trump smashed the non-college educated white voters, winning 67% of a demographic that makes up approx 44% of the electorate. And crucially more than 50% of the electorate in the rust belt. Clinton got a paltry 28%.
Polls nationally show that Trump’s base in this area has shrunk considerably, from 67% to 55%. Whilst Biden’s has grown to 44%. This means that Trump loses approx 8million votes (41m to 33m) whilst Biden gains 10m (17m to 27m).
More importantly in key rust belt states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump’s gone from 62% to 52% Michigan and from 64% to 52% in Pennsylvania. In the same states Biden goes from 31% to 45% and 32% to 39%.
So you have a picture whereby Trump has been haemorrhaging support nationally within the constituency that got him elected, and to the same extent within the core states that swung it for him and that he will need to carry this time to have any chance. Based on current polling he cannot win without at least one of Michigan or Pennsylvania, and probably both given that to only need one he would then have to win all of Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which he is 2-3% behind in.
In other words, unless he pulls an absolutely enormous rabbit out of a very, very large hat, he is boogered!
Compare to how every single year the Mail runs stories saying that the UK is in for an arctic winter. They quote some official sounding 'weather institute' or something. What seems to be the case is that these people are looking at one indicator (say, positive North Atlantic Oscillation) that is correlated to a cold winter to some degree or another (but even a stronger correlation is not anywhere near enough to base a forecast on). But the Mail does not care, because the snowmageddon headlines SELL PAPERS and that is all they care about. And weather forecasting is inaccurate, so no-one cares come March if the winter was cold or not because forecasting. Then it happens again a few times each year.
I'm guessing something similar is happening with polls. If you say that Trump's going to win, you'll get loads of attention and hits on your site or whatever. If you say he's not, you're just another pollster of thousands.
Jonathan Pie isn't quite so confident and makes the salient (and typically sweary) observation that smugly discounting Trump's chances and attacking anyone that supports him is exactly how we got here in the first place:
thols2
Free MemberBecause there’s a pandemic on and the President is clowning around showing that he’s unfit for his office.
Nah. The video you posted, that shows unfitness for office. Playing around for a crowd? That's nothing at all.
Watched news footage of him last night. For someone who plays so much golf you'd think that he would have a better swing.
I think his swing has been done to death in the election thread
Oh dear. What a shame.
I wonder if she has a book deal organised yet?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-news-live-twitter-melania-biden-b1718658.html
Christ, the Indy has gone downhill hasn’t it? No better than click bait these day
Not sure reading and writing is her strong point.
Watched news footage of him last night. For someone who plays so much golf you’d think that he would have a better swing.
I believe he's a 9 handicapper, but tells folks hes off 3. Pretty much the reverse of most golfers I know.