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As from other threads I hope nobody is tempted to vote a certain way on the eu on the basis of the current government and getting rid or people. That's a stupid idea.
Vote leave? My personal guess it all gets a bit crazy. First major period of uncertainty is getting to the leave action - zero investment and confidence in anything. That alone would probably lead to a ge as no parties have a leave based manifesto or policies on it.
Chuck in the following 2-5 years of uncertainty as people work out how we actually function in both the transition and post exit and it's looking great, despite fixed term Parliaments I'd expect a lot of no confidence motions leadership challenges and uncertainty. Could a leader/party survive devaluation of the pound or a hike in interest rates?
And that's before people work out they are not getting all the awesome that was promised.
Oops! Wrong thread ... should be the other one ...
If we want to mould the the EU in the future
What planet are you on? Seriously, you just don't get it.
What planet are you on? Seriously, you just don't get it.
Well if we leave we can't if we stay and don't bother to attend/snipe from the sideline and complain whrn we can't but hey what about using a Remain vote to get stuck in and actually more involved and shape a better future?
Well if we leave we can't if we stay and don't bother to attend/snipe from the sideline and complain whrn we can't but hey what about using a Remain vote to get stuck in and actually more involved and shape a better future?
We've had little influence in shaping the EU. A vote to Remain is permission for more of the same with even less influence!
It's pure fantasy or wishful thinking to suggest otherwise.
I can not believe any sane person would cast a vote to Remain, which would see any subsequent votes cast in general elections be of diminished value.
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Time to belive it. The arguments belong in the other thread.
So what happens to the EU if we vote out? Italy and Denmark are both supporting the Out campaign and will follow us if we go. Does this make the leave vote a better or worse option if other countries are looking at going the same way?
I'm probably going to vote in. I think we'd be fine if we voted out - we'd still thrive and is probably the right decision if we're thinking completely selfishly about it, but I do worry about the impact on the EU of us leaving especially with Putin in the wings waiting to cause trouble. We're about one sixth of the EU's GDP - that is a significant chunk to suddenly lose out of your economy no matter which country you are, our GDP never shrunk anywhere near that in the 2008 recession and look at the chaos that caused. So the impact on the EU of us leaving will be significant so they won't want us to simply walk out with 15% of their GDP.
There is no reason why we have to leave the EU right now, so lets stay in for the sake of the rest of the EU and we can always drop out in the future, in 10 years or so, if the EU does continue down it's current path and goes down the pan. We're in a unique situation in that we're not tied into the Euro so we could bail out quite easily at any time, so, if like the ERM, things go really tits up, then we can bail out then. We are one of the only nations in the EU with a growing population - in a few years we'll overtake Germany as the most populous nation in the EU therefore the weight of our vote in the EU will be greater, as I believe the weight of the votes depend on the nations population. Therefore we might then be able to carry greater influence in the EU than we're currently able to muster. I think the EU deserves one more chance to realise that the current course it's on is wrong and needs to change.
At the moment there is no real reason to leave, when you net off all the upsides and downsides of being in the EU then it probably evens out (nobody really know's). But if I wake up on Friday and we've voted to leave then fair enough, I think we will certainly do as well if not better out, I just worry about the rest of the EU and the knock on effect of any destabilisation there.
We're about one sixth of the EU's GDP - that is a significant chunk to suddenly lose out of your economy
The trouble with that argument is that if we vote to leave we won't leave the EU economy as we'll almost certainly remain part of the single market. Which of course also means we have to still allow free movement of people 😉
A considered blog post on the likely constitutional and political road map that might come out of a vote for Brexit
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/22/alan-renwick-the-road-to-brexit/
Very good post stoner, and perhaps some uncomfortable reading for some
The trouble with that argument is that if we vote to leave we won't leave the EU economy as we'll almost certainly remain part of the single market. Which of course also means we have to still allow free movement of people
And deal with all the red-tape and legislation, things won't stop being CE marked, and if they aren't they'll be BS kite marked, and BS will have to comply with the EC directives so the net effect is the same.
Is now a good time to resurrect this thread?
Probably not, but again - remember, all the certainties are now eroded.