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From a purely economic view, Wales takes way more from than it gives to the UK.
South Wales - still recovering from post-industrial decimation, no way an independent Wales could support that area as effectively than when part of the UK.
What taxes could you legitimately raise from 3m people, with an average income far lower than the UK?
Mid-Wales; has received millions in state aid - this just would not be available outside the union.
Imagine the massive amount of extra civil service that would need to be setup, moved or re-purposed.
Trunk roads - can they really be managed by the Welsh Assembly.
Wales is not Monaco.
Take an example, recently built bypass - cost of £100m+, all came from National govt. Mid-Wales growth fund - £30m due to be injected over the next 10 years. I can't see that level of investment coming from Welsh taxes. Unless the entire country is sold off to Russian oligarchs or something.
The tourism industry can still operate under a UK government.
I just don't see how the benefits outweigh the downsides and risk. Like I said, pure lunacy.
Welsh independence is the stupidest idea ever conceived. Utter lunacy. It won’t happen.
What, stupider than Brexit?!
Yes, more stupid than Brexit.
Bear in mind Charlotte Church has a vested interest here. She just bought a massive house for conversion into a hotel.
Yes, more stupid than Brexit
Wrong.
It's more than leaving a trading block with alignment for mutually beneficial interests.
We are talking about leaving a union which has a more democratically elected parliament who tax and spend, administer day to day affairs and implement policy.
E.g. Education, Health, Policing, Judicary, Social security, Housing, Business, Culture, Media, Sport, Defence.
These have always been to a large part controlled by the UK government, not the EU (OK, you have European courts of Justice, Defence procurement programmes etc).
If Wales leaves the UK, all of these things have to be sorted out by Wales, not the UK!
There is no way the EU would accept Welsh membership with the same status as the UK had, assuming there was any agreement to even join!
Utter lunacy.
Do we need to start a Windyref / Wexit? Thread
Oh no you *ing don't boyos.
Scotland? Maybe, but they were sensible enough to vote Remain overall.
Wales? No, no, no. No way. You're in this with us english morons and that's where you are *ing well staying.
Utter lunacy
I'm not saying it's a great idea, but it's not the worst either. Plenty of small countries with seemingly little indigenous industry do flourish (Iceland).
As England lurches further and further towards an unpleasant corrupt jingoistic nationalism under the current government, there's no harm looking at the options....and an independent Wales inside the EU might be a better option - especially if (when) Scotland goes and Wales loses an important ally against the worst excesses of Westminster
We are talking about leaving a union which has a more democratically elected parliament who tax and spend, administer day to day affairs and implement policy.
Are you really trying to claim the Westminster parliament is more democratic than the EU?
I suggest you read up on how both work
independent Wales inside the EU
doubt that would be popular- Wales voted for leave, despite all the EU funding it has received over the years.
There is no doubt Welsh independence would be more difficult than Scottish independence due to the greater integration of administration with Wales and England - no separate legal system for example and also much more cross border traffic. However there is absolutely no reason why an independent Wales could not work.
I wasn’t thinking about Westminster being generous enough to allow us to have a little vote…I was thinking about a UDI 😁
Unexplained Drinking Injury?
Wales voted for leave
Well yes I know that...but we're talking hypothetically here...the chances of Wales voting for independence are slim to none (albeit increasing)
So, let's say it happens and Wales becomes an independent state, what then?
How do we raise taxes, defend sovereignty, teach kids, care for the elderly.
Who builds the roads, hospitals, schools, utility networks.
Where does the money come from for social security, the arts, business grants etc
What's the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
All these are currently being answered, maybe not well, but it is happening and we have a system for redress if anyone doesn't like it.
Will independence mean you and I have more or less input on these issues?
We can learn from other countries, but ultimately have to decide for ourselves what is best.
At the moment, it is still crazy.
E.g. Education, Health, Policing, Judicary, Social security, Housing, Business, Culture, Media, Sport, Defence.
Btw you know control of health and education are already largely devolved, yes?
And transport, as you mention it
What’s the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
But surely that's the point..Wales could have their own policies
Anyway, I'm playing devil's advocate...I don't currently think it's right but I'm becoming more open to some of the arguments
OK, maybe 'democratic' was the wrong word. What I am trying to say is the voice of UK people in UK parliament is less diluted than in the European parliament.
Becoming independent still leaves a lot of issues to be resolved.
Trunk roads are still administered by the UK highways agency and a lot of people travel from Wales to England for NHS treatment e.g. there is no A&E in Powys, so everyone goes to Shropshire.
Education has to follow the national curriculum as Welsh pupils often go to live in England.
It is crazy to suddenly stop all this and try to quickly make do.
The onus is one those who want independence to prove their case.
I’m becoming more open to some of the arguments
Mark Berry South Wales Prof makes some good points on Independence
"What sort of Wales do we want?"
https://swalesmetroprof.blog/2020/03/04/what-sort-of-wales-do-we-want/
Mark Berry South Wales Prof makes some good points on Independence
“What sort of Wales do we want?”
https://swalesmetroprof.blog/2020/03/04/what-sort-of-wales-do-we-want//blockquote >Thanks..that's an interesting read
I think the independence argument could be usefully harnessed to define what we want Wales to be. Once (if) Scotland leave the UK, I think the Westminster government will go one of two ways...more devolution for Wales to appease the independence movement, or, less...basically ignore the wishes of Welsh people and rein us in.
By having the debate now about what Wales should be in the modern post-Brexit world allows us to identify, and be ready to push for, what the people of Wales want..to lobby for more self-determination, or less, or independence (unlikely).
But we have to know what we want to be.
Perhaps the problem is precisely what you keep describing. Wales has been kept dependant on grants/funding and centralised administration, whilst Welsh industry was eroded and unemployment allowed to rise over the decades. Westminster has made that lack of independence and self determination all the more obvious by keeping the Welsh beholden to them financially.
If you'll forgive a somewhat indelicate and hyperbolic image, It's almost analogous to the relationship between a Pimp and a Crack whore, controlling and abusive...
It's not like Wales is without resources or an indigenous labour force. OK they might not be swanning round in gold plated Ferraris following a split, but all the arguments that supported the notion of a UK free from Europe, kind of stack up for a Wales free from the UK...
Not that I would want to see them leave the Union, but shouting the idea down and telling the Welsh their notions of independence are "Utter lunacy" because we've got all the cash, is a pretty solid way to nudge another 5% towards supporting an independence vote...
finephilly
Free MemberWhat does Wales really have to offer the world?
Consonants
Why? smaller countries exist and flourish
But TJ, those countries have either always been independent, or they were forced out of other unions due to intolerable conditions whilst on their knees.
The economy of Wales would be very hard to sort out. Look at map - the main transport links from the North and the South are both into England. That indicates how the economy is set up. There are some nice skyscrapers in Cardiff - a good number of those are call centres for English companies.
I'm not saying it's impossible to create a successful Wales, but it'd need an incredible amount of investment (which I'm sure the WG would provide, given the opportunity) and the economic situation would be extremely precarious for a long time. A generation or two would really suffer. Look at the problems experience by Ireland in the 20th century.
If it's possible it would need a long period of gradually increased devolution and investment - from somewhere, not quite clear where.
[strong]finephilly[/strong] wrote:
So, let’s say it happens and Wales becomes an independent state, what then?
How do we raise taxes, defend sovereignty, teach kids, care for the elderly.
Who builds the roads, hospitals, schools, utility networks.
Where does the money come from for social security, the arts, business grants etc
What’s the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
All these are currently being answered, maybe not well, but it is happening and we have a system for redress if anyone doesn’t like it.
Will independence mean you and I have more or less input on these issues?
We can learn from other countries, but ultimately have to decide for ourselves what is best.
At the moment, it is still crazy.
We could start by asking Slovenia how they coped with becoming an independent state following the break up of Yugoslavia in the early 90's.
Size of country 22.3K km2 (Wales 22.7K km2), population of 2 million (Wales 3 million) current GDP following 30 years of independence 40K $ (Wales 31K $).
Instead of suggesting it cannot be done, ask what it is that Slovenians have that Welsh people seemingly don't?
welshfarmer
Full MemberInstead of suggesting it cannot be done, ask what it is that Slovenians have that Welsh people seemingly don’t?
Beautiful women
Independence for Wales or Scotland like Brexit will come down to political will and even with wee nippies recent challenges i think Scotland will get a fresh vote within 5 years, the government may also consider giving Wales a vote at the same time.
I have Scottish clients and many have shifted to an independent position due to Brexit, Scotland unlike Wales has a lot of "emotional" global support (US, NZ, Australia, Canada and even France) they also have a pretty good infrastructure and lots of space. The Border has limited North/South routes.
I cant see how Wales could deliver independence but i can see how Scotland could. Political support from the EU in assisting Scotland if they left would be significant- would i consider moving to Scotland if they gained independence? Probably but i am from Northumberland so its hardly a change.
If i was Scottish i would vote to leave, i would have no illusion of the challenges but escaping an endless Tory government has its attractions. If i was Welsh i would not vote to leave as i can not see any way to make it work.
Yeah, but this thread is about Welsh independence, not Scottish 😉
the main transport links from the North and the South are both into England.
This is a bonkers argument...look at the map...every single one of Portugal's links are into Spain, but Portugal seems to manage ok.
Molgrips - we basically agree. Welsh independence would be more difficult that Scottish but not impossible but perhaps inpractical
Yes, it can be done. But that doesn’t mean it should. Lots of spending is devolved, but not tax raising powers. Wales would have to find a way of generating public finances or face a huge shock if we just left.
The closest independent country i can see is ireland and it took them decades of struggle to create a prosperous economy and good jobs. This was mainly achieved through slashing corporate tax so international tech firms would locate there.
Wales could turn into the ‘hospitality’ capital of Europe, full of holiday rentals but i see this benefitting the rich few only. Also, it’s currently done within the UK.
Personally, i would prefer a more diverse economy to give better long term resilience- if one sector slumps globally, another is still good.
Surely it is easier to reform what exists and get more devolution ie some revenue raising powers, before trying to go it alone.
As a negotiation strategy, i only see this backfiring as the support is just not strong enough and Westminster knows it.
I don't actually think Welsh independence is any less practical than that for Scotland...I think people are generally massively underestimating the massive complexities that would be involved in Scottish independence. You think Brexit was complicated....that's not even close.
People always say "well Scotland has its own legal system"...well, so does Wales it just happens to be identical to England's. Grandfather in all the existing legislation and you're done (ok, it's a bit more complicated than that). But that's what they did with our legislation that was tied into EU law, essentially.
The biggest challenge is the currency...to my mind, that's why Scotland voted no last time...the independence movement had no coherent answer to "what currency will you use"? I've not kept up recently, but without that, you're in trouble.
Surely it is easier to reform what exists and get more devolution ie some revenue raising powers, before trying to go it alone.
Agreed.
In some ways, the situation of Wales is comparable to that of New Zealand...(and not just sheep and rugby). A similar (ish) population, with a much bigger and more powerful economy on the doorstep, but also easy access to a way bigger and more diverse market (Asia-Pacific).
NZ is a largely service-based economy (60+%)...as is Wales, and it's a sector that will only grow.
The last few months have totally changed my view on this. I always favoured keeping the UK together, but I think its is only a matter of when not if Scotland and NI are gone. If the question was Wales to leave the UK and join the EU, I'd vote for it tomorrow. I don't want to be shackled to a stroppy, sulky, deluded, fascist neighbour any longer than I have to.
If the question was Wales to leave the UK and join the EU, I’d vote for it tomorrow.
Agreed.
However...
The YC 'independence in your pocket' is no better than the Brexit Leave campaign. It offers everything, to everybody. Various options for currency, defence and trade agreements, all presented in a policy buffet without caveat - We can join the EU, we can keep the £, we can peg our currency to the £ or the € or the Swiss Franc if we want. It doesn't really matter if you're a Brexit hating centrist, a Rugby obsessed Patriot or a anti-government libertarian there's something to appeal to you which suits YCs agender of "Independence first, then sort out all the details".
Well, we've seen how that goes with Brexit. Wales holds a referendum, Leave wins, the Patriots, Nationalists, Libertarians, Socialists and Europhiles who voted for it all cheer, now we're an independent state that's the 25th largest in Europe and the 64th in the World, in par with Ecuador and Slovakia. We have a Tax deficit of £20bn per year (around £4k per head) thanks to our low GDP per capita of around £20k, putting us roughly in the position Greece was, when they went 'bankrupt', worst still our economy is tied the Englands, one of the richest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita roughly double ours and consumer prices to match. The only part of Wales that actually drives the economy is Cardiff, it's fair to say that a lot of the YC faithful can only say "Cardiff" by spitting on the floor first.
Now, it's fair to argue that this sick economy only came about in the same way other parts of the UK got there's a multi-decade shift from manufacturing to a financial services based economy based in London, "it's all England's fault" well yes, maybe it is, but you can shout all you like about who shot you in the foot, you still ain't walking alone.
There are only really 3 options for Independence for Wales
1) The Hard Way, Hard Wrexit if you like, we leave, we fight with England over trade and border access, our share of the national debt and defence and no doubt we'll threaten to cut of the water supply to the midlands as unless we're going to mine coal again, it's our only true natural resource. We enjoy decades of real hardship, brutal austerity and inflation until we're all poor enough that we can compete with Asia, Eastern Europe and the developing world for manufacturing.
2) We leave, but don't leave, we tie our economy to England's, basically more devolution in the name of Independence, we lose our MPs in Westminster, Westminster gives even less of a shit then they do now, if that's possible and we continue down this slow road of demise.
3) We re-join the EU, We have a very small window in which the EU may well welcome us back with open arms just to prove once again to England Brexit was a stupid idea and the EU, as they have in the past ploughs a lot more money into Wales than it ever got out to develop us into the Nation we could be, without plunging into the abyss first.
The problem is that there's no way a majority in Wales would vote for any of those plans, the only way they could pull it off, it to promise all of them, to everyone and then we just hope whoever ends up on top when the dust settles has got a plan.
Beware federal systems.
A system based on Scotland, Wales, NI and the English regions makes sense in headcount terms but tells, say, the Scots that they are really just an English region. Bit of a problem.
A four countries version , a United Kingdoms, would avoid that but how would you do it?
Voting rights in the federal chamber based on headcount would basically mean the federal chamber was English. Problem.
Voting rights based on statehood 25% each probably wouldn’t be acceptable in Surrey. (Bit like the EU wasn’t acceptable to the Brexies - or are they now called Flaggies?)
A system like the USA, junior chamber based on headcount and the senior chamber based on statehood, might work but I’m not entirely convinced. It might just annoy everyone.
Personally I fond it strange that most agree for a Welsh Exit to work (and the same for Scotland) is to join the EU. So you leave the control of Westminster - where you do have a say proportional to the population - to a supra-state where the influence is tiny. In practical terms the EU is driven by Berlin and Paris. And given that in the Brexit vote, Wales voted to leave, makes this a very hard sell in Wales.
The big problem with Wales is that in effect Wales is three countries, South Wales, Mid Wales add North Wales. Travel between the three is difficult, with different needs and significantly different issues. Addressing that is going to be challenging if you require a passport to travel between the different parts of the country.
And from my viewpoint this is less about leaving the UK and more about not wanting a right wing Government. Wales could survive as an independent state, but at a vastly reduced level. So it comes down to a balance of what is 'better'.
Personally I fond it strange that most agree for a Welsh Exit to work (and the same for Scotland) is to join the EU.
For me, it's pretty simple, admittedly I care more about economics than sovereignty. I understand what you're saying about our 'voice' in Westminster v our voice in Brussels, but look at recent History, Westminster has always routed investment and infrastructure away from Wales and towards the South East of England, it was the EU that invested in Wales and it's investment we desperately need to turn the tide.
We've all just been given a lesson in independence. We can't just be independent, we're part of a global economy, we need to have trade deals in place, not just so we can buy BWMs and iPhones but so we can buy food, have power etc, keep jobs how many people in Wales are employed by organisations that aren't Welsh? Or don't trade with other Business that aren't Welsh?
Independence, even with a transition period happens as the clock strikes midnight, but everything still has to work the next day and trade deals take years, decades even.
Taking the lesson of Brexit, When it comes to International Diplomacy and Trade, Size, Wealth and Strength is everything, but even as the 7th largest country in the World, we learnt a difficult lesson in humility, The US didn't roll out the red carpet, the EU didn't roll over and China didn't care. We left poorer and with a lower rate of growth than we would have otherwise. If it wasn't for Covid, the effects would be far more noticeable.
As above, their are options, but they're all very painful, the truth is with our low GDP per capita, our high unemployment and other social issues, we're £20bn a year short in tax revenue, over 25% of our GDP. As part of the EU we're able to trade not only within in, but use EU trade agreements to trade outside of it, it's a 'oven ready, build your own country kit'. Or we go the hard route, accept we're now a small, poor country where important goods (pretty much everything) now costs multiples of what it did and we offer the world cheap semi-skilled Labour.
The YC ‘independence in your pocket’ is no better than the Brexit Leave campaign. It offers everything, to everybody.
I think that's a fair criticism.
But the whole argument about economics is largely a matter of belief - on both sides.
If you don't like the idea - most things will be worse.
If you do like the idea - most things will be better.
But whether you like it or not, the idea of Welsh independence is perfectly reasonable.
Wales is a country of 3.1 million people with all the basic bits and bobs you need for some kind of independence.
It could function in a similar style to any small country.
The main thing it lacks is a sense of self-confidence.
If you don’t like the idea – most things will be worse.
If you do like the idea – most things will be better.
I try to be a pragmatist.
There's no way in which it won't get worse initially, if anyone says otherwise I'd love to know how. That's the cold hard reality of a such a massive tax deficit, without the UK effectively paying us an allowance via the Barnett formula.
Wales would have to create a Central Bank of it's own, and then issues bonds or borrow in some way from day 1. We wouldn't be able to borrow as cheaply as the UK can due to our size and economic profile. Even if the UK gave us a sweetheart of a deal which meant we could leave without taking our slice of the UK national debt, AND no making payments for defence etc, we'd be borrowing 25% of GDP every year just to meet our current commitments, never mind funding for development etc, which we may not be able to do. We would have to cut public spending by 25% immediately, austerity that would make 2008-2020 look like a walk in the park.
The only alternatives really a kind of 'Soft Wexit' either we stick with the UK in all but name, or we plug into an existing global trade group, neither is an option for us to pick and choose from the UK may not want to offer us a sweetheart deal to leave and then keep paying us £20bn a year whilst we get on our feet, equally, given we voted so conclusively to leave the EU, they may not want to do the same.
How quickly things could get better depend on a lot of factors, but I believe a lot of Wales's problems in terms of mutli-generational unemployment and lack of investment would take decades to fix.
Which brings me back to the core problem, not "Do we stay, or do we go" (RIP Joe Strummer) but "where does Wales want to go?" How much pain are we willing to accept in year 1, in year 5 in year 10, so reach a this dream of a Independent, Wealthy, Healthy, Happy Wales?" and like Brexit, if you don't con people with an all things, to all people vote, you'll never get enough people to vote to leave.
Scotland has a much easier road to Independence, they have a clear, easier road to take as they votes over 60% to remain, a GDP per Capita 50% higher than ours, a economy 3 times the size and it's own Banks.
They only need a bit of a nod from the EU for automatic readmission and they've got a plan and a way to execute it.
I agree that Scotland's route out is easier but it's still many many times more difficult that Brexit was.