Forum menu
I'm working on an organised LEJOG ride in a week's time. The organisation seem to have pretty stringent protocols (and having worked on it before, they've always been hot about hygiene, hand sanitizer has been mandatory for years, there's little dispensers everywhere).
That said, they've still had outbreaks of food poisoning (I had it in 2018 on the final day, I was [b]so[/b] ill).
But yeah, at the moment there's a small but possible risk of the event getting half way up country and then so many people (especially staff) getting Covid that the event can no longer be safely run.
They're not allowing visitors into camp this year though, the rider briefing (which used to involve everyone cramming into a big marquee) will be done virtually so they're certainly taking it seriously.
Which backs up my theory that, it’s counterproductive for non-vulnerable people who have been vaccinated to try to avoid exposure, because it doesn’t matter if it’s now, or in 5 years, you WILL catch it at some point and you WILL do more than once, but the more you’re exposed to it, the less and less nasty it will be, and it seems to me it’s better to do so whilst your vaccines are ‘fresh’.
Tend to agree with this, with the proviso that viral load could well be important when it comes to severity. So if you can catch it by getting a whiff of it in a field somewhere, rather than by sitting on a coach next to some hacking, maskless arsehole for eight hours, that would be better.
Otherwise, most of the adult population is currently close to its maximum vaccine protection. By the end of the winter, we may well have a variant which evades vaccines better, and your vaccine protection may well be waning anyhow.
I'm classed as vulnerable, but even I'm weighing up the relatively small chance of death/serious illness now vs an unknown risk next year.
Our country is currently a training ground for vaccine evading variants - high caseload vs high vaccinated population.
Not a chance I would be going to any large indoor gathering.
, I totally get the “it’s inevitable, may as well get on with it” argument.
I get that too. I just don’t understand why that means throw all protection away.
Yep it’s a weird one.
We had AIDS in the ‘80s we didn’t stop shagging just used protection.
Nothings inevitable(apart from death and taxes).
Efficient air conditioning inside and a subtle redesign of stuff would help but that all costs money and tbh your not worth it. 🙂
(Some of you may die but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make.)
There’s also outside events and outside events with your tongue down someone’s throat(and what starts outside may not stay outside) so not all are equal.
(Have a free innuendo but tbh if you were strictly following the guidelines don’t forget it would have been be a sex free year so there’s plenty of catching up to be done.)
I was actually thinking of groups moving from outside to the the around the campfire or hotel room drinkies tbh.
^^^
boardmasters has always been a notorious teenage shagfest. I’d hazard a guess the std rates compare with the Covid rates…
the cycling club that meets in the shop i work at had their annual party last week, the shop owner asked why i wasn't going to the 100 people indoor buffet party. currently waiting to see how many positives there's been from the potential super spreader event
Leeds and Reading festivals this weekend.
Large proportion of attendees use public transport to get there; trains from all over the country bringing the masses to Leeds then shuttle buses to Bramham Park; picking up supplies at local stores on the way.
Super spreading here we come.
Leeds and Reading festivals this weekend.
Yeah, going to be a whopper that one. Then half the attendees will head back into schools and colleges shortly afterwards.
Can someone explain the figures in here in very simple terms for me:
BBC News - Covid: Delta variant patients twice as likely to need hospital care
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58354342
Is it saying that a double dose of AZ (I know, me,me,me!) gives you a 92% chance of not being hospitalised if infected? Which nears an 8% chance of needing to be hospitalised? So one in twelve? And presumably lower than that for younger age groups and higher in us older age groups?
With rising infection numbers, those sorts of numbers are going to be putting a(nother) big strain on the NHS very quickly.
My understanding is that an individual has a certain % risk of hospitalisation following covid infection. Obviously this varies widely depending on age/comorbidities. My rough calculation prior to Delta was that, as a 50-year-old asthmatic, I had a 5% chance of hospitalisation.
The vaccine reduces that risk by a certain percentage. So two doses of AZ might reduce that by 92%, down to a 0.4% risk.
I suppose this means that, with delta, my unvaccinated risk was 10%, and with two doses is 0.8%.
With rising infection numbers, those sorts of numbers are going to be putting a(nother) big strain on the NHS very quickly.
It's still a numbers game. Even with the lower %, if we start getting tens of thousands of cases a day among the older, double-vaccinated population, the number of admissions will mount up pretty quick and start shutting down other hospital activity.
I read the article differently, it was 92% chance of not being hospitalised, not a 92% reduction from the original risk level.
I like your numbers much better, from an individual perspective, but still big numbers at a population level.
Everyone's risk of hospitalisation/death is different. There's no way on earth a fit 20-year-old has an 8% risk of getting hospitalised. If the chances for everyone were averaged at 8%, then the risk to the middle-aged and above would be significantly higher.
Also, from the article:
Most did not need hospital care, but a small proportion - 196 (2.3%) of the people infected with Delta and 764 (2.2%) of those with Alpha - did.
Most of these were unvaccinated. If having the vaccine means a higher chance of hospitalisation, I'm a bit worried. 🙂
That's what was throwing me, the two reports didn't make sense in my head and seemed to contradict each other
Everyone’s risk of hospitalisation/death is different. There’s no way on earth a fit 20-year-old has an 8% risk of getting hospitalised.
Risk is averaged over a selected population. There will be a fit 20 year old out there that is nailed on to be hospitalised when they get the virus. We (and they) just won’t know who they are ‘till they get it. Others really do have no chance at all of falling ill, but again, we (and they) don’t know who they are.