Forum menu
When the Brexit issue began to rear it's ugly head, one of the points made that if we left it would take up to seven years to negotiate a new trade deal with some partners.
Bollox to that I thought, they managed to get WWII done in six. From that moment on I realised that the problems ran much deeper than stay or remain. The problems were systemic, to coin a phrase.
What the toppling of Edward Coulston showed us is that what political processes couldn't deliver in 40 years, the people could deliver in 40 minutes. Within a couple of days we saw Councils and Institutions take down statues unilaterally. What had been stopping them all this time? Political processes, that's what.
Wether it's a no deal or we get a deal. I don't think this Brexit Malarkey is a done deal just yet.
BillMC,
The heavy hand of the law in the UK is a plastic truncheon. The police are massively less equipped to deal with trouble than they were during the 80's.
Brazil is different. When Charles De Gaulle was asked to comment about Brazil he said 'Brazil is not a country.' A South African politician from the Apartheid era commented that Brazil was smart, because unlike S.A. it didn't announce apartheid as an official policy, it just implemented it in practice.
Having seen what plastic truncheons to soft targets do of late, I guess they are a pretty fair compromise.
It would be like asking to move back in with your ex, because things are currently difficult.
Nah, it would be like sleeping in the spare room, and you insisting that you’ll move out after Christmas, when they say they’re happy for you to use the room for longer, as long as you ask now so that they can advertise for a lodger in January if you don’t want to use the room. But you don’t have anywhere to go… and you’ve just found out that you’re ill, and are likely to be out of a job at the end of the summer… but you’re stubborn, you have your pride, and no matter how uncomfortable sleeping rough January post viral will be for you, there is no way in hell you’re asking to use the room ‘till the spring.
Within a couple of days we saw Councils and Institutions take down statues unilaterally.
Both making a choice at the ballet box and direct action can have an effect on many things. What it can not do is force other countries to bend to your will. Voting to Brexit doesn’t magically deliver a better trade deal with all our key partners, and nor would protesting or direct action.
Anyway, the economic effect of Cornavirus is just another opportunity for the disaster capitalists… it makes No Deal in January better for them, not worse… and the effect on, and protests by, the little people is all but irrelevant. They may be able to push Johnson aside before the next election, but making it clear he can’t win (we’re nowhere near that yet, despite everything), but they will not, can not, change the course of Brexit over the next two years.
Nah, it would be like sleeping in the spare room, and you insisting that you’ll move out after Christmas, when they say they’re happy for you to use the room for longer, as long as you ask now so that they can advertise for a lodger in January if you don’t want to use the room. But you don’t have anywhere to go… and you’ve just found out that you’re ill, and are likely to be out of a job at the end of the summer… but you’re stubborn, you have your pride, and no matter how uncomfortable sleeping rough January post viral will be for you, there is no way in hell you’re asking to use the room ‘till the spring.
My neighbour let her ex move back in after their divorce, the divorce was due to his infidelity. They managed to cohabit for a further 5 years. He eventually moved out and she's got a great new guy now. The ex died of cancer.
Brexit now to be renamed operation Wacht am Rhein
Don't worry France no longer has any wish to take back all the left bank of the Rhine.
+1 P-Jay
Exceptional circumstances, exceptional impact.
Don’t worry France no longer has any wish to take back all the left bank of the Rhine.
I wasn't thinking of the original use of the phrase, rather it's use in 1944 as the code for the Ardennes offensive. A hopeless doomed to fail vanity project of a unhinged lunatic.
When Charles De Gaulle was asked to comment about Brazil he said ‘Brazil is not a country.’
Fake news. The quote is incomplete in the wrong context and comes from a light hearted comment from the ambassadeur not De Gaulle.
Wacht am Rhein, the song, is a bit like Land of Hope and Glory, or Jurusalem, a second unofficial German anthem.
Translation please Edukator. Don't mind being corrected but in a language I can understand would be nice!
Fair point BillMC, the thing is that owing to budget cuts under austerity, the UK police only have 2 plastic truncheons to go around, one for the north and one for the South.
Boris bought them some water cannons for down south, I think they got water pistols in Manchester.
Type "Google translate" into your browser then copy/paste whatever you don't understand into the box, Inkster.
Don't worry everyone! Boris has got this!
[img] 
[/img]
If you think about it, it makes perfect sense. As we approach an enormous recession, massive business failures, huge scale redundancies and mass unemployment, what we all need to be doing is loading up our credit cards to buy tat that we don't need while simultaneously exposing ourselves to a greatly increased risk of dying.
Genius!
So who's gearing up to hit the shops on Monday - to help retailers move overstocks of tat?
Grab that credit card, increase the spend limit and....splurge.
Alternatively, if you have a smidge of common sense, look critically at your job prospects; assess your incomings and outgoings; reduce discretionary spend to nil; get rid of credit card.
Coffee shops and snacks - no.
Greggs - no.
WFH removes need for wardrobe updates.
Understand difference between need and want.
Cheap clothes - no.
What about re-building UK manufacturing? Would deliver more sustainable long-term value than buying high street tat.
What, you mean don't buy things you don't need if you aren't sure of your job? My god man you're a genius! I can't believe no-one's thought of that before!
molgrips - too many people haven't understood that; you *may* be one of the enlightened but, who knows?
sarcasm is good - when properly used.
genius? thanks but, no; I'll leave you to accept that accolade.
Off you trot, prep your cc and....go spend; save the UK economy single-handedly. Fill your wardrobe with (more?) tat.
Don't forget to buy your take-away coffee; every little helps - to support the UK economy.
I see we're now disparaging teenagers. Greta, I believe, is still a teenager. Corbyn used to get it for his age on here. David King is getting on on a bit but doing a fine job. I see middle aged men walking round giving fascist salutes. Age does not guarantee maturity, insight nor sophistication. Socialist Worker, as I remember, was a major force behind the Right to Work campaign, Rock Against Racism, Stop the War Coalition, probably lots more, all nasty stuff. Insults are not quite the same as considering evidence, constructing and defending an argument. A teenager selling a paper might be showing independence of thought, social and environmental concerns, opposition to whatever, prepared to do something for nothing. All this things are laudable and should be encouraged and not condemned by some bitter worn out provincial.
Greggs – no.
Wooooooaaaah there.
WHAT?!!!
Age does not guarantee maturity, insight nor sophistication.
Studies in countries with track and trace actually in place link most of the spreading to 30-45 year olds, not youths or older folk.
Off you trot, prep your cc and….go spend; save the UK economy single-handedly. Fill your wardrobe with (more?) tat.
Bizarre that you think I'm supporting credit card spending on junk..?
Anyway, the point is that the reasons for debt (as other self destructive behaviours) are complex and subtle - disparaging those people who suffer from this behaviour is egregious and also extremely unhelpful.
Travis Perkins to cut 2,500 jobs and 8% of stores, they're forecasting a two year downturn
My local high street is full of begloved, facemask wearing geriatrics getting in everyones way. So much for shielding?
And the boris bollocks spin begins - comparisons with Franklin Roosevelt's 'New Deal' are pathetic and insulting.
The big speech on Tuesday will focus on infrastructure and construction; does johnson or any member of the clown circus have any direct experience of these markets sectors?
No, didn't think so but why would a lack of knowledge or experience stop these poundshop politicians from spouting undeliverable bollocks?
Roosevelt was a political giant; johnson is a political and intellectual midget.
A measure of the 'man', if we can call him that, is that he's running scared of a TV interview with Piers Morgan.
Do johnson or his boss, cummings, have any understanding of...what Roosevelt delivered, how it was done, why it was done, the circumstances which drove his decisions, his long term commitment and focus, his ability to communicate with the public?
No, no, no, no, no and no; all without doubt.
It's funny how Johnson has to keep trying to reframe himself as other actual great leaders
Johnson launching this today is just desperate politics, he's lost control of the narrative & been completely overwhelmed by covid, this was an attempt to seem like he's in control again, Leicester lockdown shows he's not & overshadows his announcement
Anyway, Brown had some good points here
And a July budget seems like a no brainer at the moment
Brown focuses on growth not environment, does not address structural inequality, talks of 'flexibility' (aka zero hours) and is a great admirer of Baron Sainsbury of Turville. Oh lordy, how long before The Right Honourable Baron Brown of Brownnose?
So, 10,000 job losses announced in 2 days.
Andy Haldane says, without providing any evidence, that economy is rebounding more strongly than expected and re-states Bank of England view there will be a v-shaped recovery.
Really?? Some shops opening and an initial surge of spending is no evidence of recovery or re-bound.
As for johnson's stream of consciousness statement yesterday - as expected, hot air; tiny in scale, no new money.
Let's hope that next week Sunak delivers a chunky and innovative package of new spending commitments with a much broader focus than just infrastructure and construction.
Green energy, on-shore manufacturing which has been out-sourced to China specifically - UK's response to HK will anger China so this will be no bad thing.
Publish a comprehensive and heavily funded strategy for UK manufacturing - you know, making stuff rather than just assembling bits manufactured elsewhere.
It would be great to see evidence of innovative thinking but I doubt it will happen.
Andy Haldane says, without providing any evidence, that economy is rebounding more strongly than expected and re-states Bank of England view there will be a v-shaped recovery.
I'm always amazed these claims are made without any supporting evidence. As always they need to show their working, because it doesn't take a genius to look around and see almost every business in the hospitality sector on the brink of ruin, along with lots of others in manufacturing and other non-desk jobs.
As for Sunak, it's seems pretty obvious that 'whatever it takes' has rapidly turned into 'the least we can get away with'. It's not surprising as the core problem is they just don't have the genes to be an interventionist, economically radical government, and that's what this crisis needs.
Publish a comprehensive and heavily funded strategy for UK manufacturing – you know, making stuff rather than just assembling bits manufactured elsewhere.
Good luck with that - having sat on numerous joint industry initiatives / MP select committees / seminars with Government officials I wouldn't hold my breath. Politics in this country has reduced strategic industrial policy to 2-3 'spin cycles' where the new minister announces a new raft of initiatives, obtaining funding by cancelling all the current ones created by their predecessors, but there's no new actual money. On one project, I spent 3 years bidding for 5 year / multi-million funding for skills - one year after starting the programme, the Government canned the lot to fund another programme. With 5 year Parliamentary cycles, the chance of sustainable, year on year investment of the scale needed (hundreds of millions) with match funding from industry is remote.
The only way manufacturing investment in the UK is attractive is access to a large, local or adjacent tariff-free market, maybe like 600 million people?
large, local or adjacent tariff-free market, maybe like 600 million people?
We had one of those but the wheels fell off.
dovebiker - I'm not holding my breath; more like living in (vain) hope...
the least we can get away with
That's Tory ideology in a nutshell.
I have horrible feeling the UK is going to enter a period of pain.
Job losses announced today. Furlough scheme ends soon and companies don't have the money to keep their staff ticking over. Oh, and brexit is coming.
Things here in Germany aren't exactly rosey, but a darn sight better than the outlook in the UK.
Please, do not forone minute think I'm gloating. My life is also about to get ****ed over by this shit show.
Revision to job loss numbers - now 12,000 over two days.
I think it's striking that Accenture have announced job losses; if they can't find ways to extract fees from gov and business generally we really are staring down the barrel.
Now 4 weeks until the furlough scheme begins to unwind; more job losses to come before then.
August 1st will be when job losses really begin to escalate and deferred redundancy stops being deferred.
The further reductions in support at September and October 1st respectively will accelerate the job losses.
Who knows what will happen after that?
I know a few small business owners who haven't re-opened yet and are pessimistic about ever re-opening; this is probably typical across the country.
Deeply concerning and depressing.
They are also about to re-institute claimant commitments for Universal Credit - i.e. making you spend many hours a week looking/applying for jobs with failure punished by 'sanctions' (i.e. no money for you sonny boy).
I have horrible feeling the UK is going to enter a period of pain.
Of course it will, every country will. Some worse than others.
So far Sunak has talked about austerity from September but Cummings said no. Nudge Unit a while ago tasked with looking at Keynesian reflationary measures. Good so far but it's been claimed £5bn of his spending splash had already been purposed so not extra lollie and M Hyde claims his total investment equates to 0.6% of Roosevelt's New Deal. If there is no mention of extra pay for NHS staff then the rest can go hang too (although the MPs did manage to give themselves a £200pw rise for wfh). Now we're being told to clap the bankers, or something like that. The focus of the government is business (Boris's first words at the beginning of the crisis), the bigger the better, and if you're not part of that then you're on your own. The thinking of a government minister that is prepared to shaft one of the poorest boroughs out of £40m planning gain for a photo op and a £12k bung from a billionaire pornographer requires no further explanation.
£7m Question:
how have your circumstances changed since the Brexit vote?
how has JRM's circumstances changes since the Brexit vote?
A significant chunk of unemployment will facilitate more 'flexible' arrangements for the workforce, reduce the chance of major protests and the chaos and misery will allow for 'reforms' in the NHS to be part of a trade deal negotiated largely out of view. If the government is prepared to pass the Agriculture Bill in the face of farmers, loyal tories to a T, what might you imagine they've got lined up for the workers?
I know a few small business owners who haven’t re-opened yet and are pessimistic about ever re-opening; this is probably typical across the country.
I cant blame them in some ways if you can shut down again days later like in Leicester - I don't see how that is sustainable for them to keep opening and shutting.
Wife's furlough was extended until end of this month but we aren't hopeful of a return. She works for a charity that provides lunch clubs for the elderly so we don't think that will restart. I am lucky in that work is stable and our business has been recruiting during lockdown so no risk to me but we have had to swallow a 10% pay deferral (hoping it doesn't change to a pay cut!) so we are down a lot of disposable income per month so wont go out and spend in other businesses.
'provides lunch clubs for the elderly so we don’t think that will restart', very droll.
Wasn't supposed to be! They have been very lucky in that very few members have actually been affected but a lot of these people are lonely and depressed and this situation has only made that worse. A large number will likely be afraid to leave their homes.
I put it in the redundancy thread but the main contractor I work for has mothballed it's West London division which had over a billions worth of projects set to go
Boris's big build won't do anything bar help those at the top as bidding for sub contracts are going to hit rock bottom pricing
Labour-run Tower Hamlets is sacking workers and re-employing the lucky ones on worse contracts. Haven't heard any protests about it from the Labour MP or Starmer or Lord Sainsbury.
Crikey, so Sunaks announced:
- £1000 to the employer for bring a Furloughed employee back
- a 50% voucher (max £10) for all of us to pop out and eat
- VAT down to 5% on food in Restaurants, Cinema and attractions
- Removal of stamp duty up to £500,000
...all for limited times to kickstart the economy.
Interesting times!