I mean they must do soon mustn't they? Every dealer now seems to now have a good few VW pop tops in stock and ebay / autotrader seems to have 100's for sale.
So by the end of this summer surely its going to be a buyers market as all those lockdown purchases get offloaded.
Or am i delusional?
People are keeping them - they'll need them when their houses are repossessed due to increasing mortgage rates! 😬
But essentially people with money for these things still have the money for them. Seems the higher the price the higher the status symbol.
But those mortgage rate increases will also be linked to increases in finance rates. Surely there must be a ton of people who bought on a loan who are now looking to get rid and minimise their debt?
I know van prices aren't coming down. A mate of mine had his 2012 T5 written off and to replace it like-for-like he's having to pay more than he paid for his 5 years ago. It's madness.
You'd think!
Doesn't seem to work like that though. 🙂
A few % on interest rates isn't an issue for someone spending tens of thousands on a camper.
My daughter works in the horse world and prices for horses are mad too. £20k buys you an OK competition horse - silly money for a proper good one! 😬
i got a bit of van envy last month in the highlands and started looking at replacement costs of my battered 2005 T5.
holy shit!! I'm keeping it, so it turned into what was the most expensive transporters I could find on ebay. £100,000+ !!! FOR A VAN!!!
From my casual browsing I thought Ebay prices were already dropping this year but still high compared to a few years ago
Dunno about campers, but van prices are definitely dropping over the past few months.
I've been actively looking and talking to sellers.
will also be linked to increases in finance rates
Not really relevant - it doesn't translate to finance you already had - the rates on that stay the same.
Unlike you and I dealers have little incentive to sell cheap, especially if they bought expensive. As above those with the money/desire still will and it's in the dealers interests to keep prices high.
Also, why buy a used conversion? It's usually cheaper or at least no more costly to buy a van and convert/pop than buy it already done and the whole point is doing it to your spec and use case. Second hand doesn't do that unless you get really lucky.
Any van <6 years old is Euro 6 and thus in demand for ULEZ and the other clean air zones. Supply of new vans hasn't recovered either so used prices are staying propped up. That means less about for converters to get their hands on, and thus no bargains.
While there's a younger "vanlife" crowd more visible on the socials now, the market for campervans is mostly people 50 and up. Tiny mortgage or paid off, decent pension, either scaling back at work or staying in so they can afford nice toys. The economy will barely affect them.
Hard to say, the average van-lifer is more like 55 than 25. Their "cost of living" is probably half what it was a decade ago now they're kid and mortgage free. There's not going to be many distressed sales if that's what you're holding out for.
Conversely motorbikes which are generally cheaper toys and thus bought by every demographic but prices are subject to seasonality and disposable incomes. Their prices seem to be steadily falling. I've had a saved search for a Royal Enfield 650 on facebook / ebay for ~6 months. Normally you'd see prices bottom out in January when the weather is crap and no ones got disposable income, then skyrocket at Easter after a short February and sudden nice weather. But at the moment I'm watching them being listed £100 cheaper each month. January you could get a 4 year old bike for £4000-£4500, now they're coming up for £3700.
Not strictly campervan, but motorhome related musings here....
We've got a 70 plate motorhome that we bought new end of 2020. The 72 plate version was 17k more, and it's a 14 month wait for delivery apparently. Last week, someone listed an 18 plate for 6k more than we paid new!
I'm currently in Lochaber and there's zillions of campervans and motorhomes. Sites are fully booked. B&Bs are fully booked. Hotels are fully booked. It's not yet the school holidays*. I don't see demand diminishing.
* yep, lots of kid free couples getting their holidays in before the supposed peak.
Defo as other say. When you've got #30-50k (or more) spare to spend on a camper van, the changing economics aren't changing decisions.
We keep looking but keep deciding they are too much £££ - or more over I can pay for a lot of hotels, airb+b and b+b for the £££ of the vans, as actually I'm pretty rational ! Especially when you factor in the depreciation and servicing , inc the 'habitation' aspect.
I do look forward to the motor bike prices falling however - compared to a camper van they are a cheap lifestyle toy.
Prices for older VW campers certainly dropping - I’ve seen vans that were selling for £25k+ a few years ago selling for less than £20k.
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Prices for older VW campers certainly dropping – I’ve seen vans that were selling for £25k+ a few years ago selling for less than £20k.
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I always wanted one of those 80's ones with the square lights, T25 maybe? What's the price on those like these days?
I’ve seen vans that were selling for £25k+ a few years ago selling for less than £20k.
This is where I have seen the changes. I have watched a few, they don't sell and then they relist at £2k lower etc.
T25's have been bucking the trend a bit because they were initially left behind when everything went up. People now seem to appreciate that they are still quirky but more practical than the T2's
ULEZ/LEZ worries maybe?
We bought our motorhome new in 2015. I've just seen the same model and year with less spec and more miles go for 10k more than what we paid for ours. It sold within 2 days of it been advertised.
Latest model for ours was double what we paid at last years Motorhome Show and a 15 month wait to get one.
Glad we bought when we did.
I'd disagree that the £30k toy market is immune to interest rates. Plenty of folks down here who might have a good income and a 500k mortgage and a van as it's a decent lifestyle vehicle when you have a family. That interest rate jumps from 2 to 5% (when the fix ends) and you're paying over £1000 a month in interest more. Toys will be the first thing out the door. It just hasn't happened yet as cheap fixed rates might expire any time over the next 4 years
The prices won't come down any time soon, if at all
New vans and cab/chassis are in short supply for several reasons, the new vans have long lead times and are usually already sold in advance, hence the price of used vans is very high.
Vans from 2016 are being sold for more than their list price
Christ on a bike (because even he isn't gonna buy a van).
But to turn it around: does this mean depreciation is likely to be low for the foreseeable future too?
Demand for vans is high because of online shopping and people needing Euro 6 vans for low emission zones.
T supply of vans is still poor. I think you could pay £30,000 for an lease T6 to be converted. I think that’s the main thing holding up used prices
I’m currently sat in a rented T6 on the west coast of island. It’s our first camper trip. I’m 57 and I can afford to buy one and it looks like I will buy one
Yesterday I chatted to guy who was an ex IT contractor and keen mountain biker. He decided during covid that life was too short so retired early. Him and his wife were just coming to the end of their first 1 month trip in their California
Demand for campers is still strong. For some campervan holidays will be the cheap option compared to day flying to Hawai for 2 weeks. Loads of people stopping work early to travel
I’d disagree that the £30k toy market is immune to interest rates.
Not to mention the dealers are also paying interest to finance the stock on the forecourt...
There isn't much stock on motorhome forecourts.
They're struggling to find used vehicles. Several successful dealers have closed due to lack of stock e.g. Lowdhams in Huddersfield
Had a 20 plate T6 campervan, sold it at the start of this year for a good few grand more than we paid for it. Had done 13000 miles and had a couple of scuffs and scrapes. So doesn’t seem to be any depreciation that I noticed. (Only sold mine because of divorce)
I would have thought that most people who can afford a T6 buy with a chunk of cash and the remainder with a low interest loan? I can’t remember the full details but my repayments were fairly low (relatively speaking). If the majority of people buying them are in their 50’s there is a good chance they live in a £500k+ house but with a large chunk of equity. When it comes to remortgages the equity will help with the loan to value allowing them to get better mortgage rates. So less impacted by any changes. Obviously generalising massively on this.
And living in a T6 for a month? Yikes!! A long weekend at a time is enough for me! I’ve been discussing buying another one and can’t really justify. Girlfriend uses the argument of “how many nice comfy B&B’s and holidays does £60k achieve.”
But my counterpoint is that it’s not really £60k. If I spend £5k on a holiday and B&B’s in a year, that’s money gone. Whereas due to the lack of depreciation, you’ve still got a £60k asset in two years. (I also don’t have £60k to try this theory out, so stuck with the B&B’s)
We were disappointed in the quality & condition Vs cost of vans at dealers around here. Really nasty under £20k mechanically/rust/wear in the habitation.
Anything above £40k started to be reasonable condition. But even then there were creaks and missing trim.
Private sales: we've seen two good ones, but both not *quite* what we wanted. One was (not great) dealer, one was wrong layout but perfect otherwise.
Private sales: a wave of really poorly fitted out (but look, fairy lights and nice tiles!), A legion of rustbuckets dressed in pretty graphics and another wave of stoopidly overpriced conversations which are easily identified by having the vehicle manufacturer logo stitched onto seats or on the fridge as a graphic.
In 2017 bought a (then) 5 yo low mileage coach built MH. £24k.Seemed a lot for a ‘toy’ at the time but imagine we’d not be seeing much or any depreciation after 6 years use.
Conversely no chance we’d afford to replace. Will Run another 5 years til
Kids lose interest and whatever it’s worth then so be it. Maybe when I retire I can afford a new(er) one. Can’t put a price on smiles.
I reckon it's worth a 10-20% more now
@matt_outandabout I think valuing vans is really difficult. We are currently considering our next move, thinking something slightly larger, with on-board toilet, but I've no idea how much our current one is worth. I've only glanced at the second hand market and prices seem to be all over the place. We paid £15k (£6k of that was the pop-top) to get our existing van converted back in 2017 and I baulked at the cost then, only slightly reassuring myself with the thought that it wouldn't depreciate much 😁. I think downsizing the house might be on the cards.
We're after factory/pro conversion, L2/hard top, on board loo/shower, heated, on board tanks, ideally Ducato/Relay/Boxer of MK3 and galvanised model.
We've seen two we like of similar spec:
: One was private sale, 18k for 64 reg rear lounge Boxer with 40k miles and full van and habitation history.
: One is still for sale, asking £23k for 61 reg on 73k Ducato 2.3, full van and habitation, but a bit scruffy in places.
Both with side awnings, bike rack and roof rack..
There's another in Perth that's £25k at the moment.
And living in a T6 for a month? Yikes!! A long weekend at a time is enough for me!
ok the weathers been kind but they were loving it. To me as a newby they seem a great luxury.
If the majority of people buying them are in their 50’s there is a good chance they live in a £500k+ house but with a large chunk of equity.
The people I’m aware of with vans in their 50s are mortgage free. The van is portable bought from savings or the retirement pot
Private sales: a wave of really poorly fitted out (but look, fairy lights and nice tiles!), A legion of rustbuckets dressed in pretty graphics and another wave of stoopidly overpriced conversations which are easily identified by having the vehicle manufacturer logo stitched onto seats or on the fridge as a graphic.
@matt_outandabout this made me laugh, it's absolutely spot on. I sold my campervan during lockdown and purchased a newer one. There were some horrendous vans out there for silly money.
My friend works at a firm selling campervan conversion parts which made a small fortune during covid. He always predicted that coming out of covid there would be lots of very badly converted and over priced vans as people have had enough and want their all inclusive package holidays back and need the money.
As soon as British gas, AA, sky etc can get hold of enough vans to replace their fleet the market might come down in price but not for euro 6 vans. These will still be sort after. It will be pre 2016 models that will start to drop in value.
I used to work in Bradford and they wanted £9 a day for me to drive to work. After I sold my van they set up a scheme for individuals to get 1 vehicle listed so it didn't incur a charge so I bought another van and registered it. It's not a euro 6, I couldn't afford one of those. No idea how long they will let me register my van for, I know it's not for ever and I know at some point I need a euro 6 van.
I keep toying with the idea of selling it and buying a t6 but I can't handle the stress and hassle of it again so soon.
Their prices are very much holding, we got ours last year. My mother bought it for us all to use and we chip in each month for running costs. Absolutely love it.
£60k is ridiculous though, go older and none VW and save yourself £30-40k.
the market might come down in price but not for euro 6 vans.
As per my previous comment, Euro 6 vans are coming down in price already.
Maybe still higher than pre-Covid, but prices are definitely softening.
My feeling is we might now be £2k lower than peak prices for vans (not converted).
Not a camper as such, but I'm still looking for a 2017-onwards VW Caravelle - I'm hoping there'll be more vans available and prices will relax a little come autumn but I'm not expecting much. For a 2018 van with under 50k miles (with the spec I want) you're looking at 40-45k.
I looked the other night on autotrader for the same spec van I have.
Ford Tourneo, auto, 2019+ single seat upfront, swb. And not a wheelchair conversion.
I bought mine in May 2021 for £24k. Now £32k and thats without any upgrades which I have done.
Amazing that I have bought something that hasnt halved in value in 1st year! But of course, I'm not selling it and cashing in - I love it
We had a ducatto based factory campervan. Last autumn we sold it for 20% more than we paid for it 3 years prior. As others have said, there is a supply side problem that isn’t showing any signs of going away. It’s one of the reason we sold so we could upgrade and the money would depreciate more slowly in the van than it was as cash in the bank
A 10 year old caravelle is still going for £25-30k depending on mileage.
If there's any movement on prices come autumn it'll be a couple of grand, but prices aren't going back to what they were pre-covid.
So people are working from home in them. Well I knew that but it was still interesting to see it for the first time today
Rocked up here for walk
Realised that the woman in the van next to ours was in an online meeting
Holy cow - how much for a caravelle !
That looks like quite a cool option to work
From.
I'm not sure if they are going to come down or not. I do know that time away in our van is priceless family time.
I think the main point is to get one bought if you have the money and get using it, life is flashing by. It doesn't need to be anything fancy to have a great time, just reliable.
We must have £27,000 in our 08 Sprinter minibus conversion by now but we didn't spend it all in one go. We know plenty of people that spend half that on two weeks in Florida...