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Brexit 2020+

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The reasons for both the Brexit snd Tory vote had been discussed and defined at length on various threads.

That 51% is closer to Trumps base in reasoning and thinking capability than many will admit.

As i have said before i am from the Redwall communities and have family and friends in these places. I have been shocked and disappointed by the opinions and actions of many of these folk i know (it was not so much a protest vote as a we dont care vote)

I think what really rattled me was the almost non existence of even the slightest grasp of how our economy actually worked.

Anyway here is the bones of a recent conversation with some redwall family, i asked now that brexit is a shitshow, hhe Torys cant manage Covid, your local MP (Blyth) voted against feeding kids, protecting the NHS and taking ,£20 a week from you how is that going? The response was not what i expected it wad basically well those lot with money (which bizzaley includes me) are suffering more ... well i dont want to **** on your chips but actually ghey aren't and the further you go up the tree the more they are prospering.

There is a real sense of unhappiness about others "doing well" and it matters not how hard theh have worked/educated themselves to achievd this.

I have come to realise with some sadness that these people have not been left behind but in many cases they have chosen to stay behind and complain, i have said before the self entitlement among these members of my family is quite something. Many of them struggle to hold an articulate conversation on any subject, they actively stop their kids going into any form of further education- its a self supporting perpetual downward spiral. I have tried to get various of their kids into FE but the lure of getting pissed, staying upallnight on x box and drinking white lighting is too much, then i have their mother telling me there are no decent jobs? When i point out Aldi pay assistant store management £30 to 40k a year just down the road (trust me 40k goes some distance in Ashington) she says well you need a degree for those types of jobs (you dont) but no shit sherlock you do neec an education, be able to strinv a sentence together and turn up on time.

There is little doubt in the North East of England the change in the demographic in working class communities is huge, if i go back 50 years these places contained a large group of people with broadly similar income and opportunities. I was the first person in my family to attend University (age 30) the next ones in my family to go to university were my kids. My parents could not understand why i wanted to even go to Uni.

The point i am trying to make (badly) is that i think brexit, Tory gov votes etc were not just down to just percived and real lack of propspects but also that in many of these communities some people had done well and the rest wanted that without working for it.

Please note this is not the Northern version of Britannia unchained - non of these folks are lazy they will literally dig ditches for little money, its just they completely and utterly fail to grasp the value of education and self investment added to a bit of the green eyed monster for those that do.

I remain a socialist (god knows how)


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 9:39 am
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Honda demise was made more likely by the EU / Japan trade deal if i recall discussion at the time. And made worse partly because our exit from the EU meant we were not able to influence that deal.

However good the Nissan news is, comes as Vauxhall put Ellesmere Port at risk, brexit related weakness of GBP and rules of origin part of the problem.

Brexit doesn't seem yet to be a net gain for automotive sector.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 9:42 am
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That Nissan article on Sky is corporate bollocks. The man contradicts himself throughout. The sum of the good news is that due to rules of origin Nissan will be forced to make batteries in the UK (which is an extra cost) because if they didn't their cars would be hit by tarifs on export to Europe. All that he says about not being worried by a bit more paperwork to send cars tarif free to Europe (so long as they conform to rules of origin) is equally true for any European manufacturer sending cars to the UK, that includes the competing models.

If the UK plant tries to benefit from cheper imorts from the groups factories in the rest of the world as he says it gets into trouble with rules of origin so there's a limit to that. Currently 60% (Nissan) - 75% of the parts used by UK car makers come from outside the UK and Nissan needs to hit 55% UK content. That's a huge problem especially for EVs where the most valuable bit of the vehicle is the Asian made Battery.

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/editorial/regle-d-origine-et-vehicules-electriques-comment-l-accord-sur-le-brexit-pourrait-rabattre-les-cartes-au-sein-de-l-industrie-automobile.N1044624

In fact its so much of a problem that even at the negotiation stage Renault Nissan started asking for help in 2017:

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/nissan-veut-l-aide-de-londres-pour-respecter-les-regles-d-origine-apres-le-brexit.N508229

The rules of origin is a major headache for Sunderland and until its fixed the only cars that can be sold profitably are those sold in the domestic market.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 9:56 am
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Brexit doesn’t seem yet to be a net gain for automotive sector.

Reading that Nissan news story I can't actually make out why brexit is a bonus to them? Agreement is just equal to what was possible pre brexit surely 🤔

Edit-edukator has educated 👍


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:02 am
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It’s not a bonus, it’s just a loss that’s been avoided… and very welcome it is too.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:05 am
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Is the Nissan battery factory the same one that was going to be built in Wales, but has just been cancelled?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/11/car-battery-firm-scraps-plan-to-build-uks-first-gigafactory-in-wales


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:10 am
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The Nissan battery factory partnership is separate to the proposed British Volt Gigafactory in Wales.

British Volt have now decided to build it in Blythe - just up the road from Nissan. That one is a game changer for the area north of the Tyne - it should see rejuvenation of the port in Blythe and have enough economy of scale to ensure Nissan's Sunderland plant remains cost competitive for finished goods.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology-news/northumberland-site-secured-uks-first-ev-battery-gigafactory

Siemens is a partner in the BritishVolt factory at Blythe:

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/siemens-signs-technology-deal-with-britishvolt-to-create-most-efficient-gig


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:17 am
 iolo
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This guy voted for leaving.

he is brutally honest on how he was lied to.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:26 am
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Good news RE: Sunderland


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:28 am
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Its really not Dougiedogg. Its "news not quite as bad as it might have been given a huge positive spin". Read edukators post


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:43 am
 igm
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From Glasgow. Live in a long term Tory seat in Yorkshire. Work in a (still) red wall seat - just and I did talk at least one person into voting red.
Father was a Fabian - introduced Robin Cook to the Fabians - and he and my mother were the first generation of university folk in either family. I’m second. So I have a different but related backstory to Oldmanmtb.

He is correct beyond belief (absolutely spot on). There are well paid jobs in Northern England - I have one - and there would be a sight more if folk trained as craftsmen not labourers, learned to work with their brains as well as their brawn.

I’m an engineer (ok was an engineer really). I ran graduate engineering recruitment for our company throughout the north east and Yorkshire. We weren’t employing Greeks and Poles and folk from lots of other places because were disliked the natives. We were doing it because we couldn’t get skilled thinkers locally in the quantities we needed.

Even the folk who had a degree frequently seemed to think that parroting back the facts they’d been told by their lecturers was enough. It’s not. Understand it, play with it, think.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:47 am
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The 55% thing. Is it by parts value? Or sum total of parts (ie. % of total number of constituent parts?)

The biggest value component of electric vehicles is the battery and they have much fewer constituent parts.

I also can't read/understand much of Edukators post as the links are to french papers, which I cannot read.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:52 am
 igm
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Every time I deal with Renault Nissan management they seem to be based in Paris...

I appreciate that will only be the European end of the operation.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 10:58 am
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I also can’t read/understand much of Edukators post as the links are to french papers, which I cannot read.

Google translate not work for you?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:02 am
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@iolo - I was just about to post that. It just goes to show how very little people knew/were told and how much they were lied to.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:12 am
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Edukator is misinformed

All of the models built at Sunderland already meet rules of origin so apart from the customs costs it's business as usual and its true for a company Nissans size the customs cost is peanuts.

The exception is the 62KW version of Leaf and I think its encouraging that rather than cancel that model they have decided to invest in making the 62KW battery locally. This can only be a good thing for future models too.

Its important to note that the battery plant is actually owned by AESC as Nissan sold its battery businesses. Current 62KW batteries are made in the AESC plants attached to the Nissan plant in Japan and USA.

The rules or origin is based on value.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:14 am
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Don’t underestimate the huge numbers of folk who’s reasoning for leaving the EU doesn’t extend beyond “We didn’t fight 2 wars to be ruled over by a bunch of foreigners” It’s the most consistent “reason” I’ve heard from the brexiteers I’ve spoken with, regardless of age.

Its saddening on so many levels.

Please note this is not the Northern version of Britannia unchained – non of these folks are lazy they will literally dig ditches for little money, its just they completely and utterly fail to grasp the value of education and self investment added to a bit of the green eyed monster for those that do.

Perhaps I misunderstand, but it sounds exactly like the northern version of Britannia Unchained.

Low paid low skill jobs with poor prospects, but as long as the little serfs work themselves to death, that will be just dandy for the factory owner. Wouldn't want the slaves to have too much education, they might figure out they're being crapped on. Just enough education to perform. If that. Benefits? Don't think so, they'll only buy white lightning and X boxes and avoid work.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:16 am
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The 55% thing. Is it by parts value? Or sum total of parts (ie. % of total number of constituent parts?)

The biggest value component of electric vehicles is the battery and they have much fewer constituent parts.

I also can’t read/understand much of Edukators post as the links are to french papers, which I cannot read.

Value is calculated (in most cases) as literal cost of parts inward against what is effectively the value on your customs declaration on the way back out again (Known as the Ex Works price). So if you make something and sell it for £10000, if you have a 50% tolerance you're allowed to have spent £5000 on foreign bits. In some products that would be enough to be entirely sourced overseas, but then you run into the rules on doing sufficient processing in the UK.

For cars its more complex though, actually for most things on a global scale. The car doesn't get sold to the punter, it will be built by a subsidiary of the parent. That subsidiary will probably sell it to other country subsidiaries, who then mark it up for the local market and sell it on to dealers etc, who do the same.

That means the ex-works pricing will be not nearly as high as the car's value, meaning that you have less to play with in terms of £££s spent on overseas parts.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:33 am
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Thanks folks

I've read somewhere that the powertrain of an EV accounts for around 51% of the total cost, is this correct? Not sure about the battery alone though.

What I'm saying is, if the battery pack and chassis for example are wholly produced in the UK does this account for the 55% origin requirement?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:36 am
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"That subsidiary will probably sell it to other country subsidiaries, who then mark it up for the local market and sell it on to dealers etc, who do the same."

True - which is why we'll see greater vertical integration as is already the case with Tesla's operating model.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:39 am
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Last time I had an interest the automotive industry there was a feeling among industry analysts that there wasn't a need for more than five manufacturing centres world wide. This was seen as a long term threat to the UK industry. That was about 15 years ago so things may have changed since. If not, Brexit may be speeding up the inevitable.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:56 am
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What a great deal...

British businesses will spend £7.5 billion a year handling customs declarations, as much as they would have done under a no-deal Brexit, the tax office admitted yesterday.

Jim Harra, the chief executive of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), told MPs that the number of customs forms needed to trade with the EU under the Brexit deal “is not materially different from a no-deal situation”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/annual-7-5bn-cost-of-eu-trade-as-bad-for-business-as-no-deal-brexit-jd7llrtb6


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 11:57 am
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It’s not a bonus, it’s just a loss that’s been avoided… and very welcome it is too.

Well said.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:04 pm
 dazh
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The point i am trying to make (badly) is that i think brexit, Tory gov votes etc were not just down to just percived and real lack of propspects but also that in many of these communities some people had done well and the rest wanted that without working for it.

Coming from just down the road from you (Burradon/Camperdown), I agree with most of what you say about the north east. Seems we have followed similar paths as I was also the first in my famiily to go to uni. What I would add though is that in these areas people are fiercely proud, but not as some would assume of the working class culture and mutual support it engenders, or the jingoistic national identity that their brexit votes would suggest (talk to anyone from Newcastle and they'll say they're geordie before english).

They're proud of their work ethic and ability to stand on their own two feet without needing handouts. At least they were, and in many cases for various reasons we all know, they can no longer do that and they are incredibly resentful. Brexit plays to both their sense of independence, and their hatred of anything and anyone who looks like the handwringing liberal elite offering them handouts (The EU, Corbyn, woke lefties, southerners in general).

I don't agree however that they are (all) entitled. There are some yes who wouldn't know a day's work if it bit them on the arse, and probably many more now than there were 30 years ago. Many of my old mates tell me they wish they'd done what I did and paid attention at school so they could get out. When I go back now it's not much different apart from the fact that they are more resigned to their kids never moving up the ladder, and that leads to even more resentment of those better off than they are.

And yes very good news about Nissan. I hope now we'll see an end to the snobbery of some on here hoping people in Sunderland lose their jobs.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:19 pm
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Its really not Dougiedogg. Its “news not quite as bad as it might have been given a huge positive spin”. Read edukators post

Edukator is as just as poorly informed as you. Wayniac has it spot-on.
You've been bleating on for months about how the plant is a dead duck regardless. Why not just admit you know **** all about the car industry and have done little more than regurgitate cherry picked "facts" to support your chosen position. We've had 4 years of gloom and uncertainty regarding Nissan and Brexit. Its now there in black and white straight from the horses mouth and you still can't accept this as positive news because it doesn't fit with the brexit = 100% shit-show narrative.

The new rules of origin will force manufacturers to localise supply chains for electrification (that in itself a potential positive) or move. In Nissan's case they've committed themselves to the UK for the foreseeable and have the battery manufacturing capability to support the move to electric.

And just FYI, I'm no fan of Brexit, didn't vote for it and would happily reverse the decision, I'm just sick of reading uninformed crap on here from people clearly desperate for it to be a complete disaster and who would happily see Nissan close to teach leave voters of Sunderland a lesson.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:29 pm
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some on here hoping people in Sunderland lose their jobs

Yep, despicable behaviour. Sorry... who did that?

who would happily see Nissan close to teach leave voters of Sunderland a lesson

Who were these people?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:30 pm
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Jim Harra, the chief executive of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), told MPs that the number of customs forms needed to trade with the EU under the Brexit deal “is not materially different from a no-deal situation”.

The correct version of this would surely be that the deal has increased the number of customs forms over a no-deal. You need all the same paperwork whether you send something to the EU or Australia, and then if its a UK product to the EU you also need a certificate of origin and/or EUR-1 declaration.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:30 pm
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mdavids - you are so blinded by your ideology that you cannot see this for what it is.

Nissan is dead - and will be history in a few years. That statement is a response to Johnson asking for positive news. Its what you get when folk are bribed.

Nissan has already scaled back production and investment and the idea that the delays causing shutdown are due to covid not brexit is utterly ridiculous


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:35 pm
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Nissan is dead

Mate, as much as I am anti-Brexit is not possible to say anything with that much certainty. You think you're being emphatic but with that kind of rhetoric you are harming your credibility and making it so very easy for people to dismiss you.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:46 pm
 colp
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The new rules of origin will force manufacturers to localise supply chains for electrification (that in itself a potential positive)

I think they’re going to need a potential negative as well or the battery won’t work.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:49 pm
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After five years and countless billions we’ve gone from ‘best thing ever’ to ‘not all bad then.’ It’s like finding a surprise M&M in your cat’s litter tray.

I'm going to be quoting this for years! 🙂


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:54 pm
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not possible to say anything with that much certainty.

Is this your first TJ arguement? 🙂


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:58 pm
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Just responding to some of the comments above..

Not advocating low skill jobs for us Northern folk, i was just making the point folks are happy to work hard.

Entitlement is in respect to there should be highly paid low/semi skilled jobs available- like my mate who expects £36k salary, 38 hour week, final salary scheme pension, 30 days paid leave for driving a forklift, not an etitlement to sit on his arse. What he currently has is a job that pays £18k minimum pension rights and the statutory holiday entitlement for driving a forklift. The business he works for does ok (distribution) 150 employees, he assumes that because the boss drives a Jag they have loads of cash.. i said if you all got an £18k pay rise thats over 2.5 million? The business in question made about 300k net.

Anyway the point i am trying to make (badly again) is the monumental disconnect between peoples understanding of how the world turns in respect to markets and economics hence brexit vote.

Its partly explained why on the whole salespeople are disproportionately rewarded in most organisations as they create income. Cost centre v profit centre- this is lost on some of my family members - ironically the Pit Men (miners) in my family literally dug money out of the ground.

In short sold a "concept" that can not be delivered economically or socially by the current Government as it would be in direct opposition of its baked in ideology.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 12:59 pm
 dazh
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Yep, despicable behaviour. Sorry… who did that?

I'm not going to go searching because it's pointless, but you know full well there were people on here expressing exactly this.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:11 pm
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One other point, there is no shortage of educational opportunities in the North East as a business wework with lots of FE and the College facilities are amazing and the staff commitment and ingenuity is exceptional. (Darlington College Cyber Security skills course is outstanding)

Sadly education is not valued by a lot of folks up here, i have some nephews who if you dont have a good grasp "Ashington dialect which virtually removes the letter O" (Toast is pronounced Taste) you wouldn't have a ****ing clue what they are talking about not to mention the words that only exist locally (speoch to look)

Dont think for one minute i am not proud of my accent or my roots it has actually been a benefit sounding a bit Geordie. However people need to be able to articulate and this lack of education underpins this, i learnt a long time ago in business you are judged/restricted and this almost certainly happened to me and i got round it by running my own business.

I never hide my piss poor working class background, its who i am but i need to articulate and i gained that via education and learning from others.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:13 pm
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Anyway the point i am trying to make (badly again) is the monumental disconnect between peoples understanding of how the world turns in respect to markets and economics hence brexit vote.

The scary thing is that those most guilty of that are the Brexiteer MP's presently doing such an appalling job of running the country. The level of ignorance about how global trade actually functions is gob-smacking. They seriously haven't got a clue. I know they're a motly collection of third-rate journalists and carpet-baggers but they appear the most uncurious people I've ever seen. The ignorance seems wilful. Not only do they not know about these things, they don't want to know.

The fishing issue is the perfect example. They're slapping each others backs for getting the rights to pull every last fish out of UK waters, without stopping for a second to think bout who the **** they're going to sell it too. No customers, no market, no point sending a single boat out to sea

This says it all...


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:16 pm
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I’m not going to go searching because it’s pointless, but you know full well there were people on here expressing exactly this

This is true


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:18 pm
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Loving the M&M reference.

Hilarious article in the Mail today with consumers' 'fury' over customs fees for importing goods from the continent. How, exactly, did they think it would work (and this isn't even No Deal!)?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:20 pm
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By the way it all makes me sad as ****

I have tried to help family but if you are 18 years old in Ashington you need to speak like your mates, wear the correct tracky and trainers, have a t**t haircut and a few tattoos and aspire to drive a lowered Corsa with a busting sound system and smoke as much Ganja as you can get your hands on added to a reading/writing age of 9 it ****ing difficult to make progress.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:20 pm
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They’re proud of their work ethic and ability to stand on their own two feet without needing handouts. At least they were, and in many cases for various reasons we all know, they can no longer do that and they are incredibly resentful. Brexit plays to both their sense of independence, and their hatred of anything and anyone who looks like the handwringing liberal elite offering them handouts (The EU, Corbyn, woke lefties, southerners in general).

I dip in and out of this thread for a touch of light reading and usually don't feel the need to comment.

However, this intrigues me as the aims of the authors of Britannia Unchained don't seem that far removed form the people Dazh is describing.

I struggle to understand the mindset but if, truly, a removal of handouts and benefits combined with lifelong low paid employment (which is what they had in the past) for them and their kids is what they want then it's no bad thing to give it to them.

I come from a mining family, I'm the first generation not to go down the pit straight from school, although many of my cousins did, and I've always been fiercely left wing prior to the referendum.

The way my, and my wifes, family react to us (she's from Throckley, Newcastle) because we've not stayed in the area and went to get an education tags us firmly in the hand wringing lefties category. There are even people Debs went to school with who won't talk to her because she left the village and married a non-geordie.

I have politically moved a long way right since 2016 and could not bring myself to vote in the last election.

Now I would always consider the direct benefits to me and my very direct family rather than society come elections and could see me considering my first ever Tory vote the next time if it benefits me - now that's something I would never have thought I'd ever say.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:28 pm
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Sorry one more thing, my nephews Mum was complaining on facebook that Primark was shut? She did not know there was a national lockdown.

Thats what we are dealing with... and loads of her mates weighed in telling her phone primark and complain...

Sit back and just process that.

Christ i think its time for a beer.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:28 pm
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Now I would always consider the direct benefits to me and my very direct family rather than society come elections and could see me considering my first ever Tory vote the next time if it benefits me – now that’s something I would never have thought I’d ever say.

Even with the way they are 'running' the country now?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:36 pm
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Throckley... mate you are batting well above..
😃


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:39 pm
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colp
I think they’re going to need a potential negative as well or the battery won’t work.

This deserved more recognition.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:43 pm
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Even with the way they are ‘running’ the country now?

How they are running it now is probably not in my best interests.
But it may be at the time of the election.

Previously I would have voted between all parties EXCEPT the Tories.

Now they get equal consideration from me so long as I get the best for me.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:44 pm
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Sit back and just process that.

Christ i think its time for a beer.

I keep added on Friendface some of the lads I went to school with in a very northern working class area, so my social media feed isn't just a leftie liberal echo chamber.

Theres a definite correlation between reposting Britain First racist propaganda during the referendum campaign, and now completely ignoring lockdown rules and gleefully posting pictures of themselves doing so, while also posting nonsense claiming Covid is a hoax/conspiracy and Bill Gates is behind it all. Normally in caps lock with no punctuation.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:46 pm
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Now they get equal consideration from me so long as I get the best for me.

By the sound of it, you're absolutely their target market


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:49 pm
 dazh
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There are even people Debs went to school with who won’t talk to her because she left the village and married a non-geordie.

When I've been back home to visit my mum and dad over the past 20 years I've had everything from being called a posh southern tw*t (sometimes in jest, sometimes not), traitor, snob, and worst of all a Man U fan. On the whole though it's generally ok as long as you obey one rule: Don't look down on them or think you're better, or give them any reason to suspect you might think that. My Mrs is from a true-blue upper middle class family in Sevenoaks and has never had a problem, because she's never shyed away from talking to the locals at their level (tip: just swear a lot) or displayed any form of snobbery. They all bloody love her quite frankly, and is proof that it's possible to bridge the divide.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:52 pm
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The scary thing is that those most guilty of that are the Brexiteer MP’s presently doing such an appalling job of running the country. The level of ignorance about how global trade actually functions is gob-smacking. They seriously haven’t got a clue. I know they’re a motly collection of third-rate journalists and carpet-baggers but they appear the most uncurious people I’ve ever seen. The ignorance seems wilful. Not only do they not know about these things, they don’t want to know.

And therein lies the problem at the heart of every single populist Government / regime.

Dictator type ousts anyone with an ounce of common sense or original thought or genuine skill because those people are seen as threats to the cult which requires nothing other than absolute fawning obedience. And a tribe of subservient toadies are brought in to be Yes Men and Women, blindly agreeing with everything the Dear Leader says regardless of their ability (or otherwise) to do the job.

It works fine (for a while) when everything is going brilliantly. If there was no Covid, no Brexit and the economy was going well and we'd voted in BJ and his cronies, it probably wouldn't be that bad, the country could sort of get along and run itself for a little bit. We've got the worst of all worlds now with a thoroughly inept Government, the hardest possible Brexit short of a No Deal and the worst Covid outcome in the world.

At least some areas seem to be waking up to the idea that Project Fear might actually have been telling the truth. Not that it helps much now. 🙁


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 1:59 pm
 igm
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True – which is why we’ll see greater vertical integration as is already the case with Tesla’s operating model.

The worry there is the at the reduction in specialism will increase costs and reduce quality as is already the case with Tesla.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:07 pm
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My posts do have the merit of being backed up by something linkable that is perfectly readable if you use Google translate, I'm quoting them word for translated word.

Which brings me to:

In Nissan’s case they’ve committed themselves to the UK for the foreseeable and have the battery manufacturing capability to support the move to electric.

I've checked a few sources and the deal has assured the factory's "short term" future, that is very different to "foreseable future".

The new battery plant is not on line yet so I've no idea how they're going to sell the 62kWh Leaf in Europe without a tarif in the short term.

I've been quoting but I'll now add a personal opinion: It's too soon to make a call. The industry is only starting to work under the new rules and so far it's been a logistic nightmare. Maybe they'll get everything running smoothly and get to 55% local content on the whole range; I have no reason to disbelieve the source I linked about current local content being below target which implies tarifs on at least some models. Nissan is committed to the "short term".

Who knows who Boris is going to piss off next? The deal is not a fixed set of conditions, Barnier made sure it could evolve if Britain tires to tip the playing field in its favour. The future of Nissan Sunderland relies on things being better than they are now, not worse. Nissan is making hug losses. It was before Covid and it's getting worse. There's already reorganisation of dealer networks and distribution to cut costs. How much of the Nissan range will survive I have no idea and nor does anybody else.

A while back MDavids tried to convince me that Juke sales were only falling as it was an old model and would pick up with the new model. I've seen nothing to idicate that the new Juke is a success, care to update? Production at the plant was already falling pre-Covid. It's worryingly low right now.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:09 pm
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TJ, you obviously don't understand how the industry operates.

Sunderland is safe for at least the next 7 years and in the industry thats pretty much as safe as you can be.

Within the Renault/Nissan Alliance plants compete against eachother everytime a new model comes up. I assume other carmakers operate in a similar way. Some of the 'special' plants are guaranteed a constant stream of new models but the vast majority have to win each model as they come along. Unfortunately Sunderland is in the latter category but it is safer than most due to its size.

This means that once a model is committed to a plant it is almost impossible to move it to another plant. New Juke, new Qashqai and hybrid versions of each are now committed to Sunderland and they have a life of at least 7 years. They can't be moved easily as Juke is not built anywhere ellse and other plants simply don't have the spare capacity to absorb the 300K+ that Sunderland produces.

Granted Sunderland may not get the new models due on stream in 2027 but then again no other plant in the world (aparts from the 'special' ones) is guaranteed them either. Hopefully the localisation of suppliers continues including the battery plant at Blyth. If it all works out we could end up with a stronger automotive industry not a weaker one (I admit its a big if!).

Brexit is a terrible thing but little bits of good news like this should be gratefully received. Not buried under misinfomed opinion just because it doesn't fit the desired narrative.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:11 pm
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Juke production is also being increased as the plant can't meet demand.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:12 pm
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Sorry one more thing, my nephews Mum was complaining on facebook that Primark was shut? She did not know there was a national lockdown.

Thats what we are dealing with… and loads of her mates weighed in telling her phone primark and complain…

Sit back and just process that.

IQ has a range, some people are closer to one end of that range than the other. The sad reality is where people get their information/ news from has changed and not necessarily for the better


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:20 pm
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Don’t look down on them or think you’re better, or give them any reason to suspect you might think that.

That reads as though you think that's what we do.

We're only nurses not the ****ing Rockefellers


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:23 pm
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Wanyaic - this is not good news. Its news not as bad as it might be delivered by someone bribed to say it and spun

I thought sunderland had already lost models and the fact that that statement said the delays in parts supply causing shutdown are covid related not brexit related shows just how much veracity there is in it.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:26 pm
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Good news about Nissan; it doesn't matter why they took the decision - the fact is this removes a threat from 6,000 directly employed plus many more in the local supply chain and in local businesses generally.
As for oldmanmtb and dazh commenting about the mentality in some/many north eastern communities, my home town is Wallsend; I couldn't wait to leave and, as both parents are dead, I never return.
Will drive past or through it on the way to Northumberland but that's as close as I get.
The wilful ignorance and lack of ambition of many - not all - always staggered me when I lived there and I doubt that will have improved.
My parents were determined that both my brother and I would get the best possible education for the best possible start in life; that was the single most important decision they ever made.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:31 pm
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I'm with you there TJ, it's not good news just news that is less bad. The cost of Brexit may be peanuts to such a large company but it's still a cost.

Still don't see understand this attitude where some people seem happy that others are losing their jobs. Hurts us all in the end.

Two models have been lost in the last 3 years. Infiniti Q30 because no-one ever bought them and X-Trail because the payback on investment was not good enough regardless of Brexit.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:39 pm
 dazh
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That reads as though you think that’s what we do.

Not at all, it was a general comment and not aimed at you specifically. Although TBH in many places up there all you have to do is speak in a different accent to be branded as 'posh'. I actually agree with a lot of what oldmanmtb says. There is an inbuilt prejudice against any form of achievement. I've lost count of the number of times I've heard people say 'who do you think you are?' simply for wanting to get away or do something outside the established deadend culture.

As with many other areas in the UK, the 'working class' is split down the middle between those who work and identify as I described above, and those who feel entitled to benefits. My family were the former and despised the 'scroungers'. There were kids at my school who came from these families who in retrospect had horrendous problems with abuse and neglect, yet we bullied them mercilessly, calling them tramps etc. It's a bloody brutal place quite frankly, and it's why I get annoyed when I see middle class metropolitan types passing judgement when they have no idea what it's like.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:43 pm
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As with many other areas in the UK, the ‘working class’ is split down the middle between those who work and identify as I described above, and those who feel entitled to benefits.

We're getting a bit off topic, but where I'm from was exactly the same. Display any type of ambition at school and line yourself up for merciless bullying.

People who went to the same school as me and had the same education have gone on to some amazing achievements, a lot of them left school barely able to read or write. Not that it bothered them.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:49 pm
 dazh
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As for oldmanmtb and dazh commenting about the mentality in some/many north eastern communities, my home town is Wallsend;

Not long ago my dad took my Mrs to Wallsend for a day out (the roman museum place) and she came back quite scarred. Said it was the roughest and scariest place she'd ever been and she used to work as a drug worker in Trafford so wasn't exactly ignorant of the underclass.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 2:50 pm
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Wallsend? I go there occasionally as i have a friend there who is not in great health, i didnt think it was that bad?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 3:06 pm
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the factory’s “short term” future, that is very different to “foreseable future”.

Not these days. The forseeable future is very much short term currently, it's measured in days!


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 3:12 pm
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oldman, Wallsend compared to Ashington...may not be too bad.
This is turning into the 4 Yorkshiremen...


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 3:49 pm
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Yorkshireman... they were lucky


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 4:12 pm
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I see that Janet Yellen, Biden's pick for Treasury Sec, has said the US will not be doing any trade deals anywhere until the '...US economy is fixed' - whatever that means.
That may give johnson something to think about but look...here comes liz truss, the Queen of trade deals, so that's alright then.
Kim Darroch, ex-ambassador to the US, has said he doesn't anticipate a US-UK trade deal within 4 years.
A couple of weeks ago I posted that Biden's focus on trade deals would have the EU at or near the top with the UK nowhere; that may prove to be overly optimistic.
It's all going really well.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 4:48 pm
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Was Bojo's increase in defence spending an attempt to swing a slightly quicker chance at a UK-US trade deal? Considering the NATO minimum was supposed to be 2% I think, and all but the UK fall short of this.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:13 pm
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Was Bojo’s increase in defence spending an attempt to swing a slightly quicker chance at a UK-US trade deal?

Chance to write more fat cheques for his cronies under the cover of "national security" more like.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:25 pm
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How they are running it now is probably not in my best interests.
But it may be at the time of the election.

So you'd vote based on what they promised in a campaign, rather than based on how they govern once they are in office? To be fair, millions do exactly this.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:29 pm
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It's clear that Biden's team speak with one voice; he is not going to contradict Yellen.
As and when the US start considering trade deals their focus will be on major trading blocs; the world is moving towards trading blocs - strength in depth/in numbers and all that - at the same time the UK govt has said...we're going our own way and will stand alone.
Fools and idiots.
Biden has not forgotten johnson's comments about Obama, his cosying up to trump, his willingness to tear up the GFA for perceived political gain.
It will take much more than nudging up defence spending for johnson to rise in Biden's estimation.
I think my often stated description of the UK (mainly England) as a faded ex-colonial power of ever-diminishing relevance is accurate
What can the UK can offer to the US which is of any interest other than GCHQ and intelligence gathering capabilities - and easy pickings if/when trade negotiations start?


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:31 pm
 dazh
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Wallsend compared to Ashington

When I go up north I often take my road bike and do what I call the northumbrian post-industrial shithole ride. Takes in all the sights such as Shiremoor, Whitley Bay, Seaton Sluice, Blyth, Newbiggin, Cambois, Lynemouth, Amble, Ashington, Bedlington then back to Camperdown. It's riding through a flat-capped thatcherite dystopian timewarp 🙂

Newbiggin in particular is very depressing, which has a very topical statue of a couple looking out over the sea towards Europe. If there's a more ironic piece of public art in the UK I'd be very suprised..


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:32 pm
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@binners

This appears to be fake.

Raab doesn't appear to have that tweet on his account on Nov 7th.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:37 pm
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willingness to tear up the GFA

Sorry to be picky, the EU are as much complicit in this as the UK thats why we have an Irish sea border. The EU has also chosen to ignore the GFA in these terms.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:42 pm
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He could have deleted it. I saw it in the news at the time and he never denied it. He certainly said it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-dover-calais-brexit-uk-france


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:43 pm
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Dougie dogg - not at all. the EU have strongly defended it. The GFA says nothing about NI / Uk borders only about NI / republic


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:44 pm
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Led by donkeys posters are in the style of tweets. Raab said it at a speech or lecture and there was video.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:44 pm
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Dougie dogg – not at all. the EU have strongly defended it. The GFA says nothing about NI / Uk borders only about NI / republic

Its not so much the border though, its that the people of N.I are being unduly affected by it and are having their standard of life/rights as UK citizens diminished by it. That goes against the GFA, and is caused by the irish sea border / inclusion of N.I in the CU. This was agreed to as much by the EU as it was the UK.

Ergo, neither side are actually respecting the GFA.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 5:47 pm
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I see Brandon Lewis has been making a fine job of extolling the virtues of Brexit 😂

He said the protocol offered Northern Ireland - as part of the UK - "a unique competitive advantage" not seen around the world.

"In the sense of Northern Ireland has the ability to trade in and as part of the UK as well as through the single market with the EU.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 6:12 pm
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There is no Brexit arrangement that can ensure the same level of all Island of Ireland cooperation and all UK cooperation. We are putting in new borders and divisions. With Britain not in the Customs Union and Single Market, this was always going to be the case. Any fudge will have some of the new divisions in the Irish sea, and some on the island itself... but it can't do away with them entirely... we are dividing Great Britain from the EU... we are... the deficits of any fudge is down to our desire to divide ourselves from everyone else. NI isn't coming entirely with us on that journey... even Johnson and Gove have realised that, with the arrangements that they negotiated and signed up to... despite claiming otherwise so many times.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 6:15 pm
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As my company produces goods within the Single market in N.Ireland we can lorry freight through Rosslare if we choose. Airfreight from Belfast/Dublin. Also we can enjoy tarriff free access to the UK market as we produce basic pharma products (1994 WTO agreement places zero tariffs on around 7000 products, raw materials and excipients).

Thats how I understand it.


 
Posted : 22/01/2021 6:17 pm
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