Biden has a lot of work to do internally within the US to be worrying about Brexit.
This.
Brexit is just something another country is doing.
The Americans will only care for what they can exploit from it, which is why Trump was interested.
Biden has a lot of work to do internally within the US to be worrying about Brexit.
He doesn’t actually have to do anything though, does he? He’s already done it. It’s common knowledge what he thinks about Brexit and the GFA. There will be no trade deal with America. Full stop. And he’ll be prioritising relations with the EU, not the UK.
By the look of that article in the Brexpress it looks like they’re setting up the narrative for a bigclimb down this week and, as usual, everything will all be somebody else’s fault
I don’t care who they blame, all I’m hoping is that the US election result might possibly have rescued us from no deal lunacy, as reality bites
While Brexit was initially thought to have weakened the EU, the opposite has happened. Covid has shown what a positive force the EU can be without the British veto. The balance of power in the EU has tipped away from the austerity fanatics to the benefit of the populace, who see the EU in a more favourable light. This is not a good time to be arguing with Barnier, he has a continent behind him.
I’m sure Dom is working on a catchy 3 word slogan to try and sell it
"Bite pillow hard"?
Surely all but the very densest of hardline brexiteer nutters must realise that Barnier is holding all the aces and we’ve a hand full of jokers
There are now only two options
1. Massive climb down, accepting all EU demands, while waving victory flags
2. The chaos of a No Deal on top of the economic hit of Covid, resulting in a full scale implosion of the economy
Faces with those 2 choices, you’d think that there was only realistically one option. Then you like at who’s in power.
@Edukator I am not sure how legal (from a WTO/ international law point of view), it would be for US to impose trade sanctions on UK because of breach of the Belfast Agreement.
The WTO is currently next to irrelevant, as regards holding the big players to account. Little England complaining about being badly treated by any of them will result in little more than shrugs, and perhaps a ruling that we go can ahead and reciprocate... to which any big player we are playing trade wars with will just say... "do your worst".
The US has already imposed trade sanctions on the UK, Greyspoke. The Whisky tax for example, all with the blessing of the WTO because of Airbus subsidies - wings are made in Bristol.
We generally refor to the Belfast Agreement as the GFA, Good friday Agreement, on this forum.
Exacctly @Edukator, that type of response is allowed in international law as it is a tit-for-tat remedy for a wrong against you, and the WTO agreement, whilst not expressly allowing it, does not expressly disapply that rule of international law so countries do it. The WTO courts are hopelessly clogged up though that is largely a result of the US not appointing judges to it.
Have I missed some nuance as to how one names the agreement?
NB the US sanctions are technically against the EU, I guess the US will have to continue them, or part of them, against the UK after January if it wants.
Actually, playing nicely with the WTO is one thing one might hope for from Biden, so maybe he will stop blocking the appointment of judges (which was a Trump thing).
Airbus subsidies – wings are made in Bristol.
Not quite - Airbus UK HQ is in Bristol, but the wings are assembled at Broughton in North Wales.
Breaking the terms of the Withdrawal agreement is a "wrong".
Edit: they make wings in Bristol/Avonmouth too, Dovebiker.
Breaking the terms of the Withdrawal agreement is a “wrong”.
Not against the US
Indeed. The EU might decide to impose sanctions (for any breach of the Withdrawal Agreement that takes place). Though if the breach was solely related to Ireland issues, it would presumably only do so if Ireland thought it was a good idea.
Are the US not a guarentor of the agreement? IIRC they had something to do with its monitoring?
That won't stop the U.S. using all the leverage it can muster to force Boris' arm Mefty. It doesn't matter, Britain wil be breaking international law and the international community can react, not jus the EU. Pelosi has already said that there will be no trade deal if the Withdrawal agreement isn't respected, that's already a sanction threatened. It's not even a threat, it's a statement of fact.
You are ignoring recent history if you don't think the U.S. will do whatever it deems necessary and argue the legalities later.
The important thing is that it will be Britain breaking international law and agreements first.
Are the US not a guarentor of the agreement?
Not legally TJ, but I wouldn't try telling that to any* USA politician...
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1087158755542867970?s=20
...The Good Friday Agreement was a positive USA achievement, as far politicians in both parties over there are concerned. They're not going to walk away from it, legal guarantors or not.
[ *excluding the orange one ]
If I'm not mistaken the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January and WTO tarifs will therefore apply. 10% on cars. That's a sanction compared with the current 2.5% tax on cars from the EU without even applying a sanction.
the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January
The UK already trades with the US under WTO rules, nothing will change.
I disagree, mefty, the UK as a member of the EU benefits from tarif levels applied to the EU. Compare that with the evolution of tarifs between China and the US. There's nothing to stop the US dealing with the UK in exactly the same way as it does/has with China with extra tarifs on cars when it felt like it, and China retaliated.
Heartening to see the informed opinions above in contrast to Utube. Note that Boris said there needed to be increased urgency and dispatched more negotiators to Europe the day of Biden's ascendancy. He never bothered to meet Biden BTW, another master stroke of diplomacy.
cloggy - its just pretense from Johnson. the aim for months has been to try to paint the EU as the ones to let the talks fail. Unfortunately for Johnson the EU folk can read the big sign saying TRAP and refuse to walk into in despite it wasting the time of their people
2,5% is the general tariff for US car imports. The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said. OF course we can all invent fanciful scenarios which will never come to pass, they are particularly popular on this thread.
The "TRAP" sign was a monumental error, especially "cake and eat it". The Europe translators had a field day as the equivalents are more vivid with variants that end in for example "avoir les fesses de la cremière" (have the milkmaid's bum"). Jean Michel uses the original more polite version in the Euronews vid below several years on. "Cake and eat it" has become a European cause, let them choke on it.
2,5% is the general tariff for US car imports. The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said.
That's up to the US. They added 10% to China on whim. The point is that the tarif will no longer be tied to that of the EU, it can be whatever the US decides with WTO's 10% as the start point and whatever they choose if you refer to history.
If Britain plays it's cards right it may continue to benefit from 2.5%, cause trouble in Ireland and who knows.
https://www.wardsauto.com/industry/trump-signals-progress-us-china-trade-spat
The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said. OF course we can all invent fanciful scenarios which will never come to pass, they are particularly popular on this thread
Of course we won’t actually have that enshrined in any kind of legally binding treaty. Instead, we’ll just have to cross our fingers and hope that the worlds largest economic superpower will grant a small, powerless independent country the same terms it gave to us when we were part of the worlds largest trading block
I’m sure they will. I mean, why wouldn’t they? I’m sure it’ll all be fine
Of course we won’t actually have that enshrined in any kind of legally binding treaty.
We do, the Marrakesh Agreement which established the WTO as the successor to GATT.
That’s up to the US. They added 10% to China on whim. The point is that the tarif will no longer be tied to that of the EU, it can be whatever the US decides with WTO’s 10% as the start point and whatever they choose if you refer to history.
Adding anything to the Tariffs is contrary to WTO and can be sanctioned. With the US and China they are just doing unauthorised tit for tat. THe US tariff of 2,5% applies to all countries (other than those covered by a trade deal) They cant change it without breaching the rules.
The WTO doesn't set a standard rate that is a figment of your imagination. Countries are free to set whatever rate they like, but they must apply it equally, subject to trade deals. 10% happens to be the EU external tariff for cars.
With the US and China they are just doing unauthorised tit for tat.
Best not upset the Americans over Ireland then which is where I started at the top of the page. I'll quote myself from half way down the page, thanks for confirming.
I disagree, mefty, the UK as a member of the EU benefits from tarif levels applied to the EU. Compare that with the evolution of tarifs between China and the US. There’s nothing to stop the US dealing with the UK in exactly the same way as it does/has with China with extra tarifs on cars when it felt like it, and China retaliated.
It would be really stupid for the UK to upset the US over Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement just when it loses the protection that being a member of the EU affords. Trying to claim the US can't/won't apply pressure is ignoring the writing on the wall. Especially when Pelosi, Biden and others have already made a trade deal conditional on Withdrawal agreement/GFA compliance.
The devil isn't in the detail here, Boris has been warned.
Surely they need us more than we need them!
If I’m not mistaken the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January and WTO tarifs will therefore apply. 10% on cars.
You said this, This is completely wrong.
Whether the US will decide to breach WTO rules to punish someone for something that isn't going to happen which wouldn't breach the terms of another agreement is just fanciful imaginings.
What do you reckon the UK is going to do on import tarifs if there's no deal, Mefty?
Set them low and the EU is well placed to swamp the UK with goods.
Set them high and... well that wasn't the stated objective was it?
Someone needs to explain to me how the UK can benefit and you seem well placed to try, Mefty.
It seems to me that in a protectionist world the smaller isolated countries get walked over.
What do you reckon the UK is going to do on import tarifs if there’s no deal, Mefty?
You can look them up, they are on the government website.
You said this, This is completely wrong
You are right on this point, I quoted the EU's WTO figure.
I know this admission will deeply upset FrankConway, but there you have it.
Edit: I assume your refering to the TTR which is on the Net and eliminates tarifs on 87% of goods and upset lots of people when announced, you really think they'll go with that?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-tariffs
Sounds like a good reason for the EU not to sign a deal to me.
Trying to claim the US can’t/won’t apply pressure is ignoring the writing on the wall.
Agreed.
If the USA decides to play hardball with the UK, there is zero point getting excited about WTO rules… the big players can do what the hell they like, the WTO is in no position to stop them. That should be entirely avoidable… but only via good diplomacy and politics. The idea that the USA will be held in check by the WTO is just fantasy… we need to work with the USA to keep them on side. There is no fall back option of falling out with them, and expecting the WTO to step in… in fact, if it gets to that, we’ll be calling on the EU to side with us… that will be our only option.
I assume your refering the TTR which is on the Net
If I say you can find it on the Government website, it probably makes sense to look there - so no I don't mean the TTR referred to in that think tank article.
It would be a lot easier if you linked it. Pleeaaaaasse.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021
click "download the full UKGT"
Edit: thanks.
Mefty ,you seem to know your stuff. What does this mean to something that currently costs us £17 kg?
Commodity Description Common External Tariff UK Global Tariff Change
18069011 Chocolate and chocolate products in the form of chocolates, whether or not filled, containing alcohol 8.30% + EA MAX 18.70% + ADSZ 8.0% Simplified
Does VAT go on the cost before the tariff is applied or after? Who does the tariff go to? If the UK government, would it be reasonable to ask why they are punishing us for brexit?
Given the number of "liberalised" in there the German manufacturers of all sorts must be grinning from ear to ear. Just how unilaterally reducing tarifs compared with the EU rate is going to help British farming and manufacturing I don't know. The EU (with which there was previously no tarif obviously) will continue to be present and the rest of the world will also benefit from the new low tarif.
"Race to the bottom"
And a genuine thanks, Mefty, I hadn't realised the government had fixed the future tarifs, I thought they were still up in the air. I'm surprised there hasn't been more in the press and more protest from the various interest groups.
@zippykona - you are in the business of buying chocolate from the EU, if I remember correctly, aren't you? Are you saying that you've not been given any information on these tariffs by the govt, you're just finding out on this thread?
We don't import it but we do sell it. The importers have said an 18% rise which actually is a relief as the only info I could find said 40%.
However ,is that 18% plus vat? Who gets that 18%? Will they scrap vat? Surely they don't need to tax stuff twice?
The government must be rubbing their hands together if they can finally give every person in this country a bill for brexit. You wanted it , now you have to pay for it.
I did ask paul (starving children)scully (our shop mp )these questions but obviously he doesn't know as he never got back to us.
Here he is really caring...
Edit, it wasn’t the supermarkets that kept us fed,it was our independent green grocers,butchers and bakers.
Mefty ,you seem to know your stuff. What does this mean to something that currently costs us £17 kg?
Depends on the Milk content and Sugar content and where you are getting it from, other countries may be cheaper.
VAT is charged on the price of goods plus tariff - a Brexit ‘win-win’
