Its really funny when Scotland is discussed on here watching people with no understanding of the situation making pronouncements that are incorrect
Its curious that one of those voices also claims to want a fairer society and some quite significant changes. But the prospect of Scotland moving towards such a thing is too difficult.
I personally would much rather a better fairer UK in the EU but I am not going to get that. I wouold prefer a federal UK but I am not going to get that either
What is left for me? Scottish independence
Scotland would probably need a Naval force of some sort.
for what purpose?
I do not want independence – but for me its the lessor of two evils. Remaining in the UK is damaging Scotland hugely
This is what I hear from my friends in the North… “No” voters last time, not nationalists, not after independence for purity or nationhood reasons… but they now want out from what we are making the UK into. All say they want a referendum and to kick off closer alignment (EU membership if possible, but happy to be Norway2 if need be) with every other country in Europe, and not have England make (poor) decisions on their behalf, without taking the elected Scottish government’s requests for compromise and cooperation into account.
Would scotland require or seek an army? The whole basis of nationhood is having an..an army.
More worrying for the UK, which is currently struggling to reach its recruitment targets is that it is disproportionally reliant on recruits from Scotland. The SNP are also committed to removing the nuclear deterrent - the issue being that there's nowhere available in England to base Trident (Devonport isn't seismologically stable enough).
Scottish independence will undoubtedly be messy, but the Tory handling of Brexit and Covid has done more for the independence cause than anything else.
The Costa Rica route. Why on earth does Scotland need a military? Whats the realistic threat?
I think you're forgetting your history 🙂
The SNP are also committed to removing the nuclear deterrent
Yes thats a fun one. What happens if Westminster does play hardball - apart from we are both wporse off? Play hardball - take your subs out of our country now!
Go on Dazh - who is going to invade scotland ( apart from the english? 😉 )
What is the threat we are going to need that army and navy for? Personally I cannot see one.
How much money is this that the government won’t get? Not huge maybe £200k… old school you take from me i take from you? As i said above somewhere its all about social contracts and trust and for me they are currently not being honoured.
I was the one that spoke about taking action, drowned out by all the pointless squabbling over Scottish independence.
While your actions will help you financially, if a large amount of people did this, then its the services that Governments are supposed to provide to the public that will suffer...which is what the likes of the tories want. Mentioning social contracts and trust are irrelevant words to this Government. I keep mentioning the different economies operating, and as long as our overlords sectors of the economy works, they couldn't care less about the rest.
What is the threat we are going to need that army and navy for? Personally I cannot see one.
I agree. Judging by this squabble, It seems that UK citizens as it currently stands are more than capable of fighting amongst themselves so do not to require an actual military force.
apart from the english? 😉
That's exactly what I was talking/joking about. Seriously though, it sounds ridiculous until you imagine an English nationalist government lead by someone like Farage or some other unhinged narcissist with the pitch forked hordes stood behind them.
This is the document on the scottish governments position in 2014. details the answers to a lot of questions. seeing as we seem to be hung up on the military I have quoted it
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/
Scotland's defence forces
The Scottish Government has carried out an initial assessment of forces levels in the years following independence[261].
Defence capabilities at the point of independence
Maritime forces
One naval squadron to secure Scotland's maritime interests and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and contribute to joint capability with partners in Scotland's geographical neighbourhood, consisting of:
two frigates from the Royal Navy's current fleet
a command platform for naval operations and development of specialist marine capabilities (from the Royal Navy's current fleet, following adaptation)
four mine counter measure vessels from the Royal Navy's current fleet
two offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to provide security for the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). However, as the Royal Navy only has four OPVs currently[262], a longer lead time for procurement might be necessary
four to six patrol boats from the Royal Navy's current fleet, capable of operating in coastal waters, providing fleet protection and also contributing to securing borders
auxiliary support ships (providing support to vessels on operations), which could be secured on a shared basis initially with the rest of the UKThese arrangements will require around 2,000 regular and at least 200 reserve personnel.
Land forces
An army HQ function and an all-arms brigade, with three infantry/marine units, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, and supported by:
a deployable Brigade HQ
two light armoured reconnaissance units
two light artillery units
one engineer unit deploying a range of equipment for bridging, mine clearance and engineering functions
one aviation unit operating six helicopters for reconnaissance and liaison
two communication units
one transport unit
one logistics unit
one medical unitSpecial forces, explosives and ordnance disposal teams will bring the total to around 3,500 regular and at least 1,200 reserve personnel.
Air forces
Key elements of air forces in place at independence, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, will secure core tasks, principally the ability to police Scotland's airspace, within NATO.
an Air Force HQ function (with staff embedded within NATO structures)
Scotland will remain part of NATO's integrated Air Command and Control (AC2) system, initially through agreement with allies to maintain the current arrangements while Scotland establishes and develops our own AC2 personnel and facility within Scotland within five years of independence
a Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) squadron incorporating a minimum of 12 Typhoon jets based at Lossiemouth
a tactical air transport squadron, including around six Hercules C130J aircraft, and a helicopter squadron
flight training through joint arrangements with alliesIn total this would require around 2,000 regular personnel and around 300 reserve personnel.
drowned out by all the pointless squabbling over Scottish independence.
Sorry - thats partly my fault. I'll shut up
Schrödinger’s Scotland. Simultaneously a drain on England and yet not allowed to leave. 😀
6 billion removed from the uk economy on the first day of trading since brexit.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_nVk25ZvTkU
When I say Army, I should have said armed forces.
Why does the right-wing always want to fight folk?
And in that list TJ, I'd be happy without the Typhoon's - fast-jets are a recipe for a never-ending bill.
Military hardware, pernonel and equipment are expensive, hence why it's better to pool your resourses between 27 countries in a surgical/strateigic manner, than it is to run the whole show (and cost) from one country.
That might sound like the dreaded 'EU' army according to the racists, whilst conviniently forgetting that every individual member has a veto in mulitlateral military conflict.
A particular member can go ahead on thier own, see the Iraq war. but they won't nessesarily have the backing of the union as a whole.
Why does the right-wing always want to fight folk?
Don't know, you should a
ask one of them.
Interesting post BTW TJ
Anyway we’re off topic. The point is that the parallels between brexit and scottish independence are very close, and decrying one whilst supporting the other is pretty daft.
Yet that's exactly what you're doing, saying that Scotxit is near-impossible after brexit has already happened. Isn't that "pretty daft" then?
Why on earth does Scotland need a military? Whats the realistic threat?
To deal with our most hated and most ancient of enemies, the Scots.
Well El Bent as our friends across the pond say "no taxation without representation" i have had no government representation since 2010 and never had any local representation (live in Rishis constituency) my EU representation has been removed.
Schrödinger’s Scotland. Simultaneously a drain on England and yet not allowed to leave. 😀
File it along with Schrödingers Remainers. Drawbridges up. ‘If you don’t like Brexit then seeya, go live in the EU*
*Unless you want to go and live in the EU, that is.
If remain had won the referendum then we wouldn't have this useless cockwomble as 'prime minister' with his coterie of polyps as ministers during the worst national crisis in 80 years.
I rest my case.
Dougiedog - a lot of this stuff has had loads of smart folk looking at it for years. Unlike brexit.
Personally I would be much less ambitious with the military or have none at all.
The point is that the parallels between brexit and scottish independence are very close
only somone who does not understand would say so. Scottish independence is about being social democratic, internationalist and outward looking. Brexit is none of those things
So parallel but opposed?
saying that Scotxit is near-impossible
It's near impossible to say.
Scottish independence is about being social democratic, internationalist and outward looking.
Yeah, and Brexit was about creating a progressive socialist Britain. YOU might imagine it as that, just like dazh imagines his social UK but that doesn't mean you'll get it.
Might as well imagine a social democratic internationalist and outward looking UK.
Scotxit
As pointed out, it'll never happen as I'm totally sober and it still look me 3 attempts to say it.😁
Molgrips - given the party driving it are exactly that and the population have a huge majority that are, that pretty certainly is the direction of travel. Remember tories do well here to get 20% of the vote. UKip got under 2% at all bar one euro election where they got 6%
Scotxit
Brexit - Exbrit
That 6b isn't -6bn from UK economy!!!
It's the loss of the city's cut on the tiny margins of trading 6bn shares. Equity trading isn't what it used to be before electronic trading, and reduction of middlemen.
This is real but it was expected and although the loss is non-trivial its not huge. (The loss is also the small number of equity traders and their salaries, plus clearing house operations)
And remember that the banks that remain big in equities are principally the big American banks and any profits go to the mothership.
But big money in the city isn't this, it's the more sophisticated stuff that it's so good at and takes decades/centuries to establish.
its just the first sign and the first steps.
Its very naive to think this is not a sign of something to come. MOre and more stuff that was traded in the UK will be going to the EU
Its 100% clear that the EU intend that all trading in euros and european stuff is moving out of london. that will be a big loss.
Duplicate post sorry! Got bad gateway so resubmitted!
Worth noting there was a slow drift in this euro trade to eurozone anyway as some wanted control back.
Unless anyone knows better than I do, there's no sign of the big business like structured trading, advisory, mergers etc that the city excels at being moved out?? And this is the stuff that really pays.
Happy to be corrected if there's news on this business moving out of the city.
I know very little about the financial services stuff but its clear this is just the beginning of the move towards the eurozone
No passporting and no equivalence along with the EUs need to have all trading in the euro zone under their control means more trade will go and IIRC there is a further 6 month grace period for financial trading so the real crunch will be in the summer
Yeah, and Brexit was about creating a progressive socialist Britain. YOU might imagine it as that, just like dazh imagines his social UK but that doesn’t mean you’ll get it.
Might as well imagine a social democratic internationalist and outward looking UK.
The two nations (England and Scotland at least) are just different Molgrips, they just are. Not massively so across the board but when it comes to the type of governance they actually vote for.
I know very little about the financial services stuff
Don't bother commenting any further on it then. This thread could actually be quite useful if it wasn't for the usual know-it-alls banging on with unwavering certainty about stuff they know absolutely nothing about. Ugarizza's post seems to be actual useful information written by someone who seems to have an insight - that kind of thing is needed now post brexit, not the same rant repeated several times a day from the same doom-mongers.
Are they saying anything different? This is expected/predicted and part of a process of a shift away from London, not the end of it.
FT reporting … https://www.ft.com/content/a434b756-afe0-454d-9d70-ef2d42ea8d55
Meanwhile the industry expert who is so optimistic about Sunderland failed to inform us when it was decided to produce the Ariya in Japan rather than the UK. The decision being made mainly due to a threat of a no-deal Brexit at the time, but also because it was already clear any deal would not be entirely tarif free and trade would not be as fluid as before.
mdavids - like to correct me from your knowledge?
I read a fair bit around this and the EU taking as much financial services as it can into the eurozone is clearly a key aim and they have made it clear that skeleton or symbolic workforce in the EU will not do. all traders and the computer systems must be under the control of the european courts and regulators by being based in the eurozone
Remember equivalence has not been granted let alone passporting.
I read a fair bit around this and the EU taking as much financial services as it can into the eurozone is clearly a key aim and they have made it clear that skeleton or symbolic workforce in the EU will not do. all traders and the computer systems must be under the control of the european courts and regulators by being based in the eurozone
Those traders won't account for that many jobs and will be counting for increasingly less as their systems become more and more automated.
If the EU blocks outsourcing of fund and portfolio management, that would hit the structured trading business mentioned above, this has only been suggested by a few hardliners within the EU and there are ways to ameliorate the effects of such a policy - the yanks would likely ratchet up their trade war on the EU and there may well even be capital flight out of the EU.
If the EU blocks outsourcing of fund and portfolio management
It already has. I can no longer include British based funds in my French PEA portfolio:
Seeing this coming I've made changes progressively and now have zero exposure to the UK. Just as well, between the under perforamance of the FTSE and weakening pound I'd have lost enough to pay for a couple of years of junior's education.
The two nations (England and Scotland at least) are just different Molgrips, they just are. Not massively so across the board but when it comes to the type of governance they actually vote for.
You're ignoring a load of context with that statement, and making huge generalisations geographically. It's that kind of sentiment that makes me seethe against the idea of Nationalism.
And you I am afraid molgrips simply do not seem to understand the situation
SNP - social democratic, outward and internationalist - 50% of the vote. Greens - social democratic, outward and internationalist - 6% Labour - social democratic but inward looking and insular, 15% of the vote, Lib dems 7% ish but outward looking and internationalist ( all number approximnate)
Thats 80 %ish of the vote in scotland goes to social democratic parties. The right wing are lucky to get 20%
Its a very different country politically to England.
There is no doubt at all that an independent Scotland will be social democratic and outward looking because that is the parties we vote for
Wiki information on voting intentions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
I agree with TJ on this point... but can we all stop this topic from taking of this thread? Pretty please?