Isn't arguing over who voted for what and why, sort of irrelevant now?
A pretty pointless exercise?
We need to concentrate on the matter in hand. Not fight the last war. Surely we should be keeping an eye on what this lot are getting up to at the moment, as the outcome of the next 11 months will dictate the terms of our economy for decades.
Joris Bohnson yesterday made it pretty clear that he was pursuing what all sensible economists feared the most... a complete break with the EU. No regulatory alignment. The EU made it clear (somewhat unsurprisingly) that this is totally unacceptable and that on that basis, no trade deal could be agreed.
He then went on to say he wants the kind of trading relationship the EU has with Australia. The EU has no trade deal with Australia. They trade on WTO rules.
He then went on to refer to concerns about chlorine-washed chicken and GM crops from the states as 'mumbo jumbo'
Is there anyone who believes in any other outcome than a no deal crash out at the end of the year? With the horrendous implications that involves?
I think that's what they want, so in the short term their mates can make a killing, and then in the resulting chaos they can set about tearing up workers rights, environmental controls and pursuing a very different 'regulatory alignment'... one with the US.
Does anyone still think that the 'negotiations' over the next year will be anything other than a charade, with a no deal crash out as the inevitable end result?
I think this is what Boris and co have wanted all along and what we'll witness over the next year is just a campaign to shift the blame firmly on to the EU for when it happens
History will be (re) written by the Victors . . . . Bus? What bus? Posters? What posters?
Does anyone still think that the ‘negotiations’ over the next year will be anything other than a charade, with a no deal crash out as the inevitable end result?
My hope is that it is more important to Joris to fulfil his Churchill Fantasy than to cut and run to an offshore location with a massive wad of cash and the tag of the PM who burgled the country and legged it.
There are degrees between and we mustn't forget that people like Cummings, who are totally in the pocket of the spivs and speculators, know where the bodies are buried.
I am not optimistic.
The no deal exit is probably the only way Boris can keep his overall vote in place, the only Tory casualties would be Farmers who haven't got many votes.
There is a lot of dogma among the Tory party that wants zero tariff zero restriction as this allows the reciprocal access to other markets and inward investment (or asset stripping)
The no deal brexit can reduce the costs of food, clothes, beer and many other products that will keep poor people happy while driving up minimum wage in an economy with reduced labour availability- this approach shifts the financial burden away from the government and the pressure off reducing income tax - everything the Tory party ERG nutters drive is to do with transfer of wealth - this is the heart of what they are after.
So yes a no deal brexit is the endgame. Positioning it with the masses is very easy (ooh look cheap beer and the poundshop is the 50p shop)and keeping a handful of casualties under control (Farming and Fishing) is realtivley simple. If you have property,education,business (outside of the casualties) and little debts i am pretty sure you will be fine however the rest of the UK not so sure.
binners is right, everything boris has done has be toward getting a no deal done....
plan accordingly.
Joris Bohnson yesterday made it pretty clear that he was pursuing what all sensible economists feared the most… a complete break with the EU.
I think he's trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.
I think he’s trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.
In a way I hope so. The EU will be worried by the prospect of no deal. Unfortunately, if we had a brain, we should fear it much more.
This is one manifestation of my main annoyance around Brexit, namely the weaponising of stupidity.
Joris is going to try to say to the EU "I am going to go through with the threat of no deal because I've got tens of millions of nobheads who believe everything they read in the Daily Mail behind me".
Pathetic stuff.
Nice to know that the countries future is at the mercy of an over-privileged man-child who's effectively playing a high-stakes game of poker with other peoples money.
One where him and his mates can't lose, whatever happens
Like a lot of things around Brexit it feels like its all just some jolly wheeze amongst our ruling class
We are just back where we have been since June 2016.
Holding a gun to our own head and saying "If you don't give in to my demands your dry cleaning bill will be horrendous".
It was always going to be like this.
The difference is that before now the EU knew that when push actually came to shove the Maybot wasn't anywhere near dumb enough to pull the trigger. She actually cared about the consequences for everyone (not least for herself)
But now we've got Boris in the driving seat, and during his life, as with Dave before him, none of their acts (no matter how stupid and destructive) actually carry any consequences.
If you wanted one thing to point at to explain how we ended up here, it's that. An Eton elite where they are never ever held accountable for anything, there are no consequences to anything and no price ever to be paid for any of their actions. It's all just a game. And in true Bullingdon Club fashion, somebody else will always be left to clean up the mess and pay the bill.
In an ideal world there would be two lamp posts awaiting those pair for where their one-upmanship and obscene sense of entitlement has delivered the country
Nice to know that the countries future is at the mercy of an over-privileged man-child who’s effectively playing a high-stakes game of poker with other peoples money.
I'm not really sure Aron Banks and the rest of Joris's paymasters aren't playing with some of their own... if undeclared and would have been subject to anti-money laundering money .. or are you suggesting Joris is actually in charge??
binners
But now we’ve got Boris in the driving seat
It's not like the chauffeur chooses the destination
Indeed. He's merely following orders. All the dodgy people behind the scenes who've bank-rolled his endless ambition now want their payback.
And judging from yesterdays speech that's what he fully intends to deliver. The no deal Brexit they all crave, all gift wrapped for them in number 10
binners ... I'm reading more into the dead in a ditch speech he made after coming back from the IOM.. just the sort of idiot thing he'd say in public if he had just been told what the consequences of non delivery were
Great quote about Boris from one of his former ministers:
'But Ms O'Neill, the former Conservative minister for energy and clean growth, said people should be wary of the prime minister's promises.
"My advice to anybody to whom Boris is making promises - whether it is voters, world leaders, ministers, employees, or indeed family members - is to get it in writing, get a lawyer to look at it and make sure the money's in the bank," she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme'
Source (before Mefty or someone cries foul): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51368799
I don't buy any of the stuff about Johnson's so-called backers and paymasters.
Interesting conspiracy theory and all that but....no.
He's not a conviction politician; he's self serving, egotistical, easily influenced and not especially clever.
He's been played and doesn't recognise it.
As for Nissan and who's 'talking shite', I would place more reliance on the FT's reporting than some un-named, unknown geordie.
That unknown unamed Geordie is the bloke responsible for installing/moving/upgrading production lines....
But hey ho frank knows better...
I don’t buy any of the stuff about Johnson’s so-called backers and paymasters.
Interesting conspiracy theory and all that but….no.
He’s not a conviction politician; he’s self serving, egotistical, easily influenced and not especially clever.
He’s been played and doesn’t recognise it.
I'd argue that the reason he doesn't realise it is precisely because he’s self serving, egotistical and doesn't give a toss (or more likely is incapable of) about anyone else.
If nothing else you have to wonder what he was doing in the IOM?? (Other than collecting the kipper from the mythical kipper seller)...
Other than collecting the kipper from the mythical kipper seller
That might explain why he had to duck into that freezer during the election 'campaign'. Maybe there was a kipper in there?
There certainly is a whiff of something fishy.
oldman - as you know, I didn't claim to know better; I doubted the veracity of an unnamed, unknown source who could have been nothing but a figment of your imagination.
You have now given some context but, unless Nissan have shared their contingency planning with your mate/source, it could be nothing more than their speculation.
Time will, possibly, tell.
As an exiled geordie I'll be following this with interest.
Ryanair have just released their qualifying criteria for their recruitment drive in Manchester - applicants MUST have full rights of freedom of movement and freedom to work anywhere in the EU...
Now, for the next 11 months, that's still everyone, but are they going to look ahead with their recruitment?
I think he’s trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.
If we do end up with No Deal what exactly will the EU be losing out on? All I can think of is a few of our regional foodstuffs will be unavailable or just a bit more expensive. I can't think of anything that another area of the EU can do for them just as well.
Genuinely, will it cause them any problems? If it's just a few minor inconveniences then it won't hold any power on the negotiating table.
Sinn Fein ahead in polls in Ireland & indy yes in Scotland.
Bumpy road ahead, but I think the little Englanders want be sad
If we do end up with No Deal what exactly will the EU be losing out on? All I can think of is a few of our regional foodstuffs
The majority of our export trade is services, not goods, as far as I'm aware.
Sinn Fein ahead in polls in Ireland & indy yes in Scotland.
Just spotted in passing on Twitter that a poll showed 4 in 5 folk on the emerald isle are in favour of a reunited Ireland.
(Though what the quality and scope of that poll was, I didn't check.)
Genuinely, will it cause them any problems? If it’s just a few minor inconveniences then it won’t hold any power on the negotiating table.
Trade goes both ways, obviously. And obviously there are lots of factors at play. Different sectors have different ‘meaning’ and levels of emotion for different countries or member states.
BUT looking at the top level numbers.
Somewhere in the region of 8%-18% of the EU’s exports come to the UK. An annoyingly wide range, granted, but 45% of the UK’s exports go to the EU.
On the flip side, 53% of the UK’s imports come from the EU. Try as I might I cannot find the reciprocal % but I would be very surprised if it was much in excess of 20%.
Now, tub-thumping tossers will tell you that we will be free to ‘strike amazing free trade deals’ that offset this disparity.
But if anyone says we can redirect half of our economy in a timely enough manner to offset reduced trade with the EU and in enough time to get all the necessary paperwork and infrastructure in pace then they are either lying or insane.
Putting it bluntly, we need the EU more than they need us.
That is not mentioning all the other factors that are pulling against the practicalities. This morning on R4 there was an Aussie tub-thumping tosser giving it large about how Australia is raring to go with a UK-Aus trade deal. In the case of Australia, I think (correct me if I am wrong) we would be talking about a greater mix of physical goods versus services than we are used to thinking about in these contexts. The item on the radio ended and was followed by a story about the UK’s ‘ambition’ to be zero carbon by 2050(?). Whatever, we segued effortlessly from a story about part of our ‘national salvation’ coming from shipping goods literally half way around the world to a story about cutting carbon emissions to zero. What the **** are they going to be transported in? Tea Clippers?
The sheer tosserdom of all of this is truly something to behold.
Sure, you could probably pick holes in my percentages, but there is no way you could convincingly argue a sound economic, environmental or any other rationale for the utter nucking fonsense that is bloody Brexit.
Bollocks to Brexit.
And, if my percentages are directionally correct (willing to take correction), then that took about five minutes on Google.
Just think if a few people had spent a few minutes actually finding shit out for themselves in early June 2016....
FFS.
For context there: mainland Europe (Dover <-> Calais) is 20 miles away, Australia is 10,000.
Plus Australia's largest exports are coal, iron ore and racism. And we're pretty good for all those things already.
The majority of our export trade is services, not goods, as far as I’m aware.
So almost everything we give to the EU in terms of trade can be done by the members left inside the bloc? So where are they going to find that political ace to force a good deal from then?
They say satire is dead but it isn't, it's sat on the sidelines looking on in bewilderment at how reality has completely Top Trumped anything it could have thought of.
Sod it, in for a penny.....
Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item. Yes, there were production lines, obviously, but on any given day the wing mirror polishers might be out on strike for a 50% pay rise or Dave The Painter left yesterday so the whole paint department went out on the piss and can’t stand up straight. As soon as reasonable quality foreign imports, particularly those made using JIT principles, became available the British made car was shown up for the shoddy overpriced crap that it was.
British Leyland sold the Mini at a loss accidentally to start with, because (surprise, surprise) it wasn’t just the actual manufacturing that was shoddy, so was the accounting.
So, we beg and bribe Japanese car manufacturers to come to the UK to replace the old shambles.
They insist that we have to put lots of stuff in place so their JIT processes can work. The ‘warehouse’ at your standard Japanese car plant is about the size of a medium office floor. Basically non-existent because nothing is allowed to stand still ‘waiting for something else to arrive’ or whatever.
So, the JIT philosophy works well. Then some prat comes along and messes with a part or parts of that supply chain. Creating the need for import checks where there previously weren’t any for example. Now your Japanese car manufacturer’s ENTIRE business model is screwed. The model is so lean, so tight, that any disruption is extremely damaging. So they say “thanks very much for the tax breaks for last thirty years, but we’re off now”. Short of state seizing of plant and machinery (which I think even the Tories would wince at), there is bugger all that can be done.
One other side rant about trade having other impacts beyond the immediately obvious. Consider the example of Rolls Royce exporting the Nene jet engine to the Soviets in the late 40s. The Americans had basically won the war in the west for us, but they then sent us the bill. After very nearly bankrupting the UK they did agree to lend us half of what was deemed essential. The last of that was paid off in 2006, incidentally. So, the country is on its knees, rationing, the freezing winter of 1946-7 etc. Stalin jokes that there is no way the Brits will sell him any of their Crown Jewels (jet engine tech at this time being one of the few), but he asks for a laugh.....
And Rolls Royce end up selling some to the Russians. Bad enough from the US point of view. It gets a lot worse, though, when the Russian reverse engineer the tech and stick the resulting engines in their Mig 15s. These then show up over Korea where they start blasting US planes and their pilots out of the sky.
The point is that this stuff did not exist in a vacuum back in the 1940s. Nowadays any retrograde step in cooperation with any trading partner is likely to have effects that no one can foresee.
Bollocks to Brexit.
Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item.
... like the Allegro.
Yet another elephant in the room. "Buy British" is a laudable aim, but when not viewed through pineapple-ringed spectacles a lot of what we produced was shit.
(And we don't even produce shit any more, often we replaced that with "nothing at all.")
Well, I had a long day at work and a wind-down rant or two can be quite cathartic.
The point of all my ramblings above is that this stuff is really complicated and there is no escaping it.
You can never model all of the possible permutations, sure, but even that points back to the sheer stupidity of disrupting it for no good reason.
Add to this the fact that our PM (talk about devaluing a great office of state, my god) has a reputation for being intolerant of detail, broad-brush, crass, pompous and untrustworthy and you can see why I get so bloody annoyed by all this. The other occupiers of the offices of state also seem to be cut from a similar cloth.
Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.
Sure, we have experts in the Civil Service but they will not get any proper direction from the top and if they try to prepare for reality they will get a bollocking for being pessimistic and unpatriotic. The fact that the arch arsehole Cummings wants to lay waste to them will not help either. Any sane person would be looking for a change of job. I am sure many private companies will pay handsomely for someone with the inside track of what goes on and the experience of dealing with it. As with everything to do with Brexit, the actual outcome is the opposite of what any sane person would want. The reverse Midas Touch where everything turns to shit.
Bollocks to Brexit.
The Canadian opinion...
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For context there: mainland Europe is 700 miles away, Australia is 10,000.
Probably further if you are shipping by carbon neutral Tea Clipper.
But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.
Racism is just a tool used to shut white people up while their countries are destroyed. Not unlike the antisemitism charge for critisism of Isreal.
Destroyed how?
Ryanair have just released their qualifying criteria for their recruitment drive in Manchester – applicants MUST have full rights of freedom of movement and freedom to work anywhere in the EU…
...bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.
…bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.
Well when your not at the table they can
sort of make rules up you may not like 🙁
It’ll all be weaponised by the gov as a valid reason they go Aussie rules (the new name for no deal) and why the US deal is so great.
A lot of lidl/Aldi fruit and veg comes from where my PIL’s live in Spain, their friend from over here drives a truck that brings it back, even with tariffs and extra costs under Aussie terms that’s still got to be cheaper and quicker than a refrigerated container doing 10,000 miles.
(And that’s without even mentioning the climate change ethics)
A twiddle on the spec and/or longer term pcp’s and the bm’s and Audi’s will still flow into the country.
I’m really not sure he’s worried about a trade deal with the EU.
He was willing to chance it last year when he had no majority and have to go thru with an election so I see no reason why he’d be that worried now he’s got 5 years and a massive majority.
If they make him an offer he can’t refuse he may take it but don’t forget
UK commitment to the Customs Union and Single Market would make a UK-U.S. FTA a non-starter
we segued effortlessly from a story about part of our ‘national salvation’ coming from shipping goods literally half way around the world to a story about cutting carbon emissions to zero.
Ahh You only have to say about cutting carbon emissions,you don’t have to go thru with it.
If anyone says different then just sack em,it’s really easy the sound bites gotta be put out there thou way more important than the actual doing stuff.
Ryanair is Irish, and given the number of Mancunians of Irish descent I think they might be looking for Irish passport holders or people who can apply for an Irish passport, which is also anyone from NI.
Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.
What this utter shambles has also illustrated, in total contrast, is the quiet, efficient, hubris-free competence in which the EU has gone about it's business.
I'm sure the irony of that is completely lost on the Brexiteers
Is anyone else getting this thread not going to the last page?
There's 13 pages, but on the main chat forum screen it's only showing 12. And if you hit the link displaying when it was last updated (2 minutes ago etc), it takes you to page 12, not page13...
Other threads take you to the most recent thread on the last page of that thread.
Its remainer bias 😉
