[Closed] 'Boom' here we go (bubble burst content)

1 month drop?

We're doomed...

As someone saving to get on the property ladder, long may they fall!

Next month: House prices rise by 1%!

My advice- never invest in the stockmarket.

This isnt news- not yet ...... Its only been a month.

Mmmm, tis confusing isn't it?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-house-price-rises-record-070920484.html

There's a bubble?

Where I live, you can buy a flat for less than the price of a Ford Focus.

1 month drop?

We're doomed...

The first of many I'd say - dropped despite the lowest interest rates ever and the apparent rush of BTL'ers to get in there before the stamp duty hike, (something that should have actually pushed up prices).

"Won't someone think of the STW BTL landlords"

The median starting salary for graduates in 2014-2015 was £28,000 - up from £27,000 in 2013-14 and a continuation of the steady increase from £25,000 in 2010-2011, £26,000 in 2011-2012 and £26,500 in 2012-2013.Sep 9, 2015

Maybe they will fall enough that they are only 4x the salary of the average graduate.....

There will be a lot of people crying and losing it all if that happens though

Mmmm, tis confusing isn't it?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-house-price-rises-record-070920484.html

Those are Nationwode figures, the new data I posted is from the Land Registry, the only data you can rely on I'd say.

piha - Member

Mmmm, tis confusing isn't it?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-house-price-rises-record-070920484.html

This is an interesting point - the first report which shows a fall it taken from data from the Land Registry that has actual sale prices, the second which shows a rise is from Nationwide, one of the bigger mortgage providers in the UK.

Nationwide are notorious for inflating figures, although not as bad at the reports based on asking prices - they managed to maintain there was a rise in prices throughout most of the end of the 2000s with a straight face because they only based on asking prices - the fact that places were selling in days on 2005 for the asking price (or even more) and being advertised in 2009 and taking 6-12 months to sell at 90% of asking wasn't mentioned.

If they have started to fall slightly I would congratulate the BOE and even the Tories (first time for everything) we (the UK) can't afford a crash, or until now a reduction because our banks spreadsheets relied on them to be liquid - seems now even RBS is reorganised we can afford to engineer a slow re-balance.

Those are Nationwode figures, the new data I posted is from the Land Registry, the only data you can rely on I'd say.

I always thought the Land Registry figures were issued 3 months late- the most reliable due to being analysed thoroughly, but 3 months out of date.
Have they got with the program, or something?

Where I live, you can buy a flat for less than the price of a Ford Focus.

About quarter of a million quid by all accounts.

Where I live, you can buy a flat for less than the price of a Ford Focus.

Well where I live a 1 bed flat is £160k, 2 bed flat £230k and 2 bed house £300k

Sustainable?

one of them daft rs rx ones that ken block is so keen on.

Nope.

2.0 TDCi Titanium X 5d - List price £24,635

[url= http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40272489.html ]http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40272489.html[/url]

There are normally a few flats kicking about near me in the £18 - £20k bracket.

Mini crash was expected by many after the tax changes as btl buyers were rushing to buy last month. Didn't seem to happen here though. Last week's property auction prices were as high as ever if not higher. Let's see what happens over the next 6 month's but I wouldn't bet much on them dropping a lot.

My in laws house in leafy Surrey was put on the market at £875000.
We all thought this was really optimistic but you never know.
Their best offer was £830000. I think the market is determining prices rather than estate agents. The offer though made their house the most expensive 3 bed in the area. It's a typical old persons house where everything needs redoing.

Is this the crash that's been about to happen since 2007 or a new one?

Will it come with a search function that works?

I can't see much happening round here (Reading), with Crossrail and the new town center prices have been going up 20% in the center, and they're currently ripping up fields to build 1000's of new houses. So someone's confident.

zippykona - Member

My in laws house in leafy Surrey was put on the market at £875000.
We all thought this was really optimistic but you never know.
Their best offer was £830000. I think the market is determining prices rather than estate agents. The offer though made their house the most expensive 3 bed in the area. It's a typical old persons house where everything needs redoing.

Mum was an estate agent for years and still talks my ear off about it, only an opinion but hers was that as well as market forces dictating prices, their is a huge amount of market expectation - as I moaned above, 10 years ago at the height of the pre-crash bubbble asking prices were pretty much selling prices or even above - the market was almost driven by the fact people were asking £x and getting it within days, so the next lot of seller just asked for even more.

Today, away from London and to a lessor extent the South East as a whole the expectation is that sellers will need to take an offer and in some places where it's still taking weeks if not months to get the first sniff of a buyer sellers are accepting low bids (local supply and demand notwithstanding) perhaps some sellers are expecting to take an offer so over-stating the asking price.

I hope and expect that prices will gently re-balance over the next few years, with supply growing from new builds and if even 5% of BTL magnates decide to sell up will start the process - with Brexit settled one way or other soon and Europe on the mend (hopefully) we can expect a rate rise next year it might gather some steam - yes some people will lose and be crying about the unfairness of it all, but property owners have been on the winners side of the coin for a very, very long time and we paid a very heavy price since 2008 to make sure they were.

yes some people will lose and be crying about the unfairness of it all, but property owners have been on the winners side of the coin for a very, very long time and we paid a very heavy price since 2008 to make sure they were.

Woooaaaahhhh there, before you condemn people, don't forget that those young people that falling prices might help, are exactly the same as those young people who managed to buy 12months earlier.

The baby boomers will always be safe because they bought their house for 2 Wurthers originals and a button in 1960something and owe nothing.

They've been stagnant or rising at a lower rate now for 9 years (London being an exception). A crash seems unlikely. In fact I just googled for "house price graphs" to illustrate that point, brings up all sorts of weird and wonderful expert predictions from 2008.

That's a cheap flat, PP.. would be pretty easy to become a landlord at that price...

That's a cheap flat, PP.. would be pretty easy to become a landlord at that price...

or you could sell your car and live mortgage free?

This one is at the end of the street I grew up in. It was a bit of a shitehole then but has been poshed up a bit over the years as a result of the right to buy scheme. My parents house is visible in the second photograph. There are loads of these for sale at the moment.

[url= http://www.s1homes.com/End-Terraceds-for-sale/2016042209505612.shtml ]http://www.s1homes.com/End-Terraceds-for-sale/2016042209505612.shtml[/url]

You wouldn't believe what £300k would buy you here.
The benefits of living in an economically deprived area.

Go on show us !

i would take that report with a pinch of salt. it probably includes the 3/4million and upwards properties that are hanging a round a bit longer or going for just under or around ‘sensible’ asking prices. but for the commuter belt small family homes or flats it’s business as usual in the south east.
my small flat in zone 3 London has gone up 10% in the last 16months (judging by the sold prices of a couple of properties in my small block)
might be a different story in the north.
it’s still cheaper than renting.

£199k, converted water mill in Yorkshire, big house + with the original bits still in there! Didn't sell, went to auction in the end, no idea if it sold there but it didn't appear on the land registry so I guess not.

[img] [/img]

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/old-kilton-mill/mill-lane/skinningrove/saltburn-by-the-sea/ts13-4aj/36163762

Go on show us !

A pink toilet seat and some extremely suspect decor....

[url= http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36310686.html ]http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36310686.html[/url]

Woooaaaahhhh there, before you condemn people, don't forget that those young people that falling prices might help, are exactly the same as those young people who managed to buy 12months earlier.

that's me - i bought a house a year ago, but even so I'd welcome a few year's worth of flatlining to help my contemporaries catch up a bit.

anyway, all this talk of rises and falls is basically moot on such a massive scale. You can move 2 miles across the city and the environment changes completely - it's irrelevent to talk about what is happening in a region as a whole, or even in one city.

Here in Bristol, an area gets a rep for being cheap and not too stabby, so all the first time buyers pile in, so prices in that square mile or so go up by 20-30% in about 3 years. Then it's out of reach for the FTBs, who look to the next area they can afford that might be ok. All this activity on 2-bed terraces could easily be outweighed by price drops on a few £2million mansions on the other side of town, but that might as well be on the other side of the world for all the difference it makes to an FTB. And vice-versa, of course.

Woooaaaahhhh there, before you condemn people, don't forget that those young people that falling prices might help, are exactly the same as those young people who managed to buy 12months earlier.

I bought a place last year and for the greater good I'd welcome a big (massive) fall in house prices. Makes no difference to me as instead of like a lot of people, buying the biggest F-off pad I could stretch to, I bought well within my means and even with a big hike in interest rates, could easily afford the repayments.

High house prices encourage speculation in property, lack of investment in industry/exports and drains peoples incomes to the extent the economy and housing market becomes stagnant. The sooner people realise this then the better we will do as a nation.

[i]A pink toilet seat and some extremely suspect decor....
[/i]

Wow, Perchy....the closest town to me that might have a trad house like that is Dorking. If that was in a reasonable part of Dorking, the asking price would be circa £1.75m

agent007 - Member
High house prices...drains peoples incomes...

What he said.

mswife and i will probably move next year, but it'll financially ruin us, effectively removing us from the economy for a decade or 2.

new bikes? nope.

meals out? chinny reckon.

weekends away? - hopefully we'll remember when we [i]used[/i] to do those things.

It says...

"House prices in all the regions in England and Wales [b]apart from London and the East[/b] fell in March, according to new data from the Land Registry. "

which doesn't seem like amazing news, since it's London and the East where most people are struggling to find somewhere to live.

just think of all that London/SE stamp duty paying for the rest of the country

[i]Londoners now pay more than 40 per cent of the total stamp duty collected in the UK with one borough alone — Westminster — contributing more than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland put together, official figures revealed today.[/i]

A pink toilet seat and some extremely suspect decor....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36310686.html

Here's a comparison for a property that is similar looking (period villa) in the southeast .... sunny Brentwood, Essex ... 40mins from london on trains every 10mins... when crossrail comes in, trains are will be every 5/6mins and journey times more like 30mins, I think

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53786092.html

mswife and i will probably move next year, but it'll financially ruin us, effectively removing us from the economy for a decade or 2.

new bikes? nope.

meals out? chinny reckon.

weekends away? - hopefully we'll remember when we used to do those things.

Maybe buy somewhere smaller or move somewhere cheaper, it's why I live in the Midlands and my parents live in Surrey!

This is well worth a read about the damage already being done to London's wider economy. Bearing in mind London and SE are the drivers of UK economic growth, it's a bit daft for us to have driven London house prices beyond affordability... the country as a whole suffers for the benefit of London homeowners...

[url= http://www.economist.com/news/21697575-faulty-land-use-regulation-throttling-capital-londons-property-woes-are-getting-worse ]House prices throttling London[/url]

Economists might welcome a shift from low- to high-value industries, but property prices threaten its continuance. Academics say they have been forced to move out of town. The share of employed people in inner London working in professional scientific, research, engineering and technology jobs has fallen from 6.6% to 5.4% since 2011. Public services struggle. “It’s almost impossible to hire young teachers who don’t live with their parents,” says one head. And it is not just young teachers who are throwing in the towel: between 2011 and 2014 the number of twenty-somethings fell by 3%, reversing long-term growth.

Those who cling on in the city do so at a cost. Between 2008 and 2014, Londoners’ disposable income (ie, after housing costs) fell by 4%, a steeper decline than in any other part of England (see chart). According to the Centre for London (CFL), a think-tank, the disposable income of private renters in inner London dropped by 28% between 2001 and 2011.

A few anecdotes too: it's already getting harder to find work in London...

1. I've left London after living there for 15 years because I can't afford the rents or to buy and salaries are pretty much where they were in 2008 when house prices were not far off half what they are now (+ I couldn't find a job at a time when allegedly the economy is growing)
2. A friend of mine similarly can't get an interview, let alone a job..
3. Another friend has been made redundant and they're moving her company to Edinburgh and Cheltenham. She says she's too expensive for them to employ her now. She worked in an ad agency - advertising being something the UK is world-class in and a major contributor to our GDP so a bit silly to tear it apart for the sake of house prices.

It's all got rather silly... in SE26 where I used to live, 2-bed flats have gone from £250 to £450 since 2013 - 80%! increase when wages have barely moved. Meanwhile the economy flatlines because so many workers have so little money left after paying their housing costs and pensioners have lower incomes because interest rates are so low, and pension funds are struggling to meet their liabilities for the same reason...

The game now is to spot Osborne's next stimulus that he tries to disguise as 'helping FTBers and hard working families'

The game now is to spot Osborne's next stimulus that he tries to disguise as 'helping FTBers and hard working families'

Hmm, yes he's been an absolute muppet in this respect.

Still he appears to be finally listening to the younger generation, or if you're a cynic you could say he's seen an opportunity to rake in lots of extra tax from the BTL brigade.

As the baby boomers start to die off then politics will shift and if the voices of the housing 'have-nots' and the younger generation will have to be listened to for any future government trying to win a general election. You can feel it happening already.

"[i]1. I've left London after living there for 15 years...[/i]"

Fifteen years of not buying because there's a crash coming and it's better to wait ?

The top end of London prices are falling, significantly so.
But I wouldn't necessarily assume that will ripple through the system as a whole (although I'd rather it did do so).
Mainly because all governments will do whatever they can to keep the housing market going - as there is very little else to power the economy.
With negative interest rates on the horizon, housing may still be a decent investment. I often think the only thing that will stop central banks and politicians from stoking the housing market is some type of revolution, when people take to the streets and hit Westminster (which may not be so far off).
Sad state of affairs for anyone wanting to start a family in the South East.

The top end of London prices are falling, significantly so.
But I wouldn't necessarily assume that will ripple through the system as a whole (although I'd rather it did do so).

Wouldn't be surprised, remember that old phrase, something like 'when London sneezes, the rest of the country catches a cold'?

There are 3, actually 4, interested parties in maintaining high house prices:
The estate agent, for their healthy commission.
The seller, for getting a glimpse of their paper 'wealth' and helping them justify an even bigger debt ( see next)
The lender, for lots and lots and lots and lots and lots ( shall I go on?) and lots of lovely income.
And,
The Government, stamp duty and other treasury income and the continuation of the illusion of wealth, which keeps the masses from revolting.

Simple maths will show that the buyer is outnumbered by some rather powerful influences.

agent007 - Member

'when London sneezes, the rest of the country catches a cold'?

London eats everything, and the rest of the country takes the shit.

Very confused by my local market, houses are being put on way higher than recent sold prices and in guide bands e.g 200k-240k. Houses are selling in days, pretty despondent after 10 years of saving

Very confused by my local market, houses are being put on way higher than recent sold prices and in guide bands e.g 200k-240k. Houses are selling in days, pretty despondent after 10 years of saving

Where in the UK are you? I think the London house price rises may now be filtering across the rest of the UK. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see this bubble bursting, I see it growing over the next five years.

Eastbourne - south east.