The other issue is timing. If an app predicts rain arriving by 3pm and another 4pm, then they are both fairly consistent with each other.
People are looking for answers that simply aren't available. It's simply chance if the errors in one model coincide with observations. However, if you gather statistics over a long period of time then the Met Office is the most accurate.
Rain and wind.
HTH.
However, if you gather statistics over a long period of time then the Met Office is the most accurate
I'd like to see these stats.
Just my experience but I've lost faith in the Met Office forecasts in the last few years for rainfall prediction. I’ve started using other forecasters and found them to be much more useful.
I find BBC usually best, but look at the percentage chance of rain rather than the icons for your locale.
Also, look at the satelite images of rain clouds just below and run the 'clock'.
That, coupled with a bit of geographical knowledge is usually a pretty good picture.
For example we know the pennines block a lot of rain comming from west to east, so a lot of rain in manchester doesn't really translate into a lot of rain in leeds.
AccuWeather ,Apple and Met Office got it very wrong. BBC were right.
I got wet.
Did you use the hanging weather stone as recommended above?
Percentage chance is based on Probability of Precipitation, which is a combination of the confidence it will rain in the area and how much of the area may see rain.
50% could mean it's 100% guaranteed to rain but only in 50% of the area, or could be 50% confidence of rain but in 100% of the area if it does.
It doesn't say how much per how long. 100% chance but could be a couple of drops for a few minutes.
I've generally gone with if it says <5%, then no rain. 10% to 20% I'm often caught out. 50% it's blazing sun most of the time 😄
I’d like to see these stats.
Just my experience but I’ve lost faith in the Met Office forecasts in the last few years for rainfall prediction. I’ve started using other forecasters and found them to be much more useful.
I find them amazing in context... depending on granularity and prediction window.
I tend to be most concerned in areas that tend to be hilly.. and it may not rain exactly where I am but the next valley but taking that geographic granularity into account if it says 80% chance of rain in a bigger area it seems very close to 80% of the time its correct.
There is a lot of bias in our perception though. If it says 20% chance of rain and it does rain more people will remember that than 80% chance of rain and it does... even though they are more or less the same thing.
https://meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall
Might have been mentioned earlier, I don't have the time to look back through.
Gives the next three hours based on what's gone before. If you know where you are you can see what you'll get.
Percentage chance is based on Probability of Precipitation, which is a combination of the confidence it will rain in the area and how much of the area may see rain.
50% could mean it’s 100% guaranteed to rain but only in 50% of the area, or could be 50% confidence of rain but in 100% of the area if it does.
It doesn’t say how much per how long. 100% chance but could be a couple of drops for a few minutes.
Depends on the forecast and the exact diagnostic being used. Met Office forecasts describe the percentage chance of precipitation at a single point (ie the location you've searched for). They don't make any stipulation about what proportion of a given area will see precipitation.
You're referring to precipitation in vicinity which is more useful for thunderstorms where the exact location of rainfall is challenging to forecast but the confidence in there being rainfall over an area is easier to predict.
The BBC are out of the running for me. Fair enough they bought into meteogroup. I was a long standing meteogroup user. But the BBC bought a very basic package. They only give the % chance of rain. My old App gave % and an amount
So you should get 60% chance of 9mm or 95% chance 0.1mm. These both clearly paint a picture. 60% and 95% tell you next to nothing
That doesn’t seem right as it is often very different for forecasts here in south wales.
Didn’t Dark Skies aggregate several models for it’s forecast, so I would assume that Apple weather does the same, otherwise what was the point of buying them ?
I posted exactly what Apple Weather has listed.
Yes but bear in mind that most large met services will have models that go beyond their country eg the Met Office data might not be just for the UK.
Meteoblue....
Moved to Germany and found the forecasts to be mostly crap. Meteoblue Was the only one I found to be reliable.
You can also check satellite and rain radar.
It's good.
I find that Clearoutside the best of the bunch certainly now Darkskies has gone.
goes it more detail than most.
I discovered it when I dabbled in star trail photography.
https://clearoutside.com/forecast/50.7/-3.52
A friend recommended Rain Today. It was 2 minutes out in letting me know when the rain will start.
Happy with that.