[Closed] A morbid interest in the meltdown

Haiti dropped out pretty quickly.

Haiti was not the worlds third largest economy. I think Japan will be topical for a while.

I think Japan will be topical for a while.

Would they be involved in much media manipulation to paint a rosier picture?

The Grauniad certainly seems to be revelling in it all a little too much.

Your questions are definitely interesting though imo. There is a British nuclear expert suggesting even the worst case scenario is unlikely to be 'another Chernobyl' btw.

I'm a systems engineer. I did some research on three mile island as a uni project. Have always been interested in the energy supply problem. It's fascinating and horrifying. God help them.

It's not the same type of problem as Chernobyl. That exploded the uncontained reactor when a badly run commissioning test made it go super critical. The reactors in japan are fully inhibited but still hot. The worry here is that without pumped coolant a full core meltdown is possible that could lead to china syndrome although there are also design measures to prevent it.

But I just read that reactor 4s cool down pool may have evaporated away. That might result in a very large release if it isn't dealt with. It's been suggested that it might re react but I can't believe that.

^ I read a few 'experts' opionions on the reactors. Chernobyl was carbon rods catching fire, this would be the concrete, Chernobyl vented directly to the outside with no protection, this one alegedly has protection, although I thought it had been damaged significantly with an explosion.

It's fascinating and horrifying. God help them.

Much how I see it.

A thought might be that youtube and the ability to watch others mishaps so easily has desensitized people to what it really is like there.

Compared to the deaths and devastation caused by the tsunami the reactor problems are utterly insignificant. I doubt that'll add a fraction of a percent to the impact.

Water just doesn't sound scary.

From a very old Horizon program I remember this:

Underneath the reactor at Chernobyl there is a feature called "The Elephant's foot". It is as far down as the molten core material went during the accident. When it was found they wanted to know what it was composed of. The radiation was so bad it killed robots so they sent a marksman and from a "safe" distance he shot off a small chunk that was then retrieved with a childs remote control car.

Turned out it was scarily HOT core material and fuel all molten together.

If you can track it down its well worth a watch.

Also try and get hold of New Scientist 21st Aug 2004, they interview one of the technicians onsite at the time it went bang...........chilling.

When Chernobyl melted down, it was from what I know, pretty much kept underwraps as long as possible

On the contrary, Gorbachev was praised for the Soviet Union's unprecedented openness when the Chernobyl disaster occurred. I don't know how warranted that was though, in the same way that I can't be sure how honest and open the Japanese authorities are being at the moment. The nuclear industry in all countries tends to be very secretive and less than honest. The first nuclear disaster in the world occurred in Britain, and yet the British government didn't officially admit to it until about 30 years afterwards. It still isn't talked about very much.

Compared to the deaths and devastation caused by the tsunami the reactor problems are utterly insignificant

At this moment in time.

If the reactor does go and contaminates the local area and surrounding areas it will be a different story. It has the potential to effect 1000's again and make areas inhabitable.

I'm sure it was Japan that had a boat at sea for years carrying nuclear waste that an African country became wise to and refused to land it. Circa ate 80's i'm sure.

There are very clear explanations of windscale three mile island and Chernobyl accidents on wikipedia. They were secretive about windscale because the reactor was part of our nuclear weapons Making programme not a power station at all.

On the contrary, Gorbachev was praised for the Soviet Union's unprecedented openness when the Chernobyl disaster occurred

The initial evidence that a major release of radioactive material was affecting other countries came not from Soviet sources, but from Sweden, where on the morning of 28 April[55] workers at the Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant (approximately 1,100 km (680 mi) from the Chernobyl site) were found to have radioactive particles on their clothes.[56] It was Sweden's search for the source of radioactivity, after they had determined there was no leak at the Swedish plant, that at noon on April 28 led to the first hint of a serious nuclear problem in the western Soviet Union. Hence the evacuation of Pripyat on April 27, 36 hours after the initial explosions, was silently completed before the disaster became known outside the Soviet Union. The rise in radiation levels had at that time already been measured in Finland, but a civil service strike delayed the response and publication.[57]

It's from Wiki, but that is pretty much what I had read about in a book on Chernobyl. They hadn't told anybody it had happened for two days

edit - I'm sure I watched a horizon or something along those lines with an offical person of some sort talking about asking the Russians what was happening and getting denial to start with, evenutally followed by acceptance that there had been an accident.

At this moment in time.

buzz-lightyear - Member
I'm a systems engineer. I did some research on three mile island as a uni project. Have always been interested in the energy supply problem

Loughborough?

[i]Or at any time. Towns will not be erased. 10s of thousands will not die in minutes. Hundreds of thousands more people will not be made homeless. A few people might die a bit early. Maybe.[/i]

But at the end of the day, I'd be more inclined to live on the coast than next to a rotting nuclear power station.

Well, if you lived on the coast (near those power stations) you stood more chance of getting killed by water than radiation. Several thousand times more.

Only with in the time scale of the last week though.

They hadn't told anybody it had happened for two days

Yep, the Soviet Union admitting 2 days after Chernobyl that a had disaster occurred, was unprecedented openness.

[i]"the Windscale fire of October 1957. The reactor's core, made of graphite, caught light, melted and burned substantial amounts of the uranium fuel, and released large amounts of radioactivity. It was the most serious nuclear calamity until Chernobyl nearly 30 years later, but the British government did all it could to minimise its significance, trying at first to keep it a complete secret (the local fire brigade was not notified for 24 hours) and keeping the official report confidential until 1988"[/i]

Only with in the time scale of the last week though.

If the reactors had gone bang all by themselves it would be (in normal terms) serious. As it it's just a tiny part of a truly huge disaster. Unfortunately it's taking the focus off the real tragedy.

even when thay have blown up and are on fire people go on about how safe they are. What would it take to convince you they are not that safe?

Nah Portsmouth . Not brainy enough for Loughborough

Just to add to this :

Yep, the Soviet Union admitting 2 days after Chernobyl that a had disaster occurred, was unprecedented openness.

......just in case anyone thinks Japan's nuclear industry is usually very open, they're not. It has a long history of cover-ups and lies, which have involved senior executives and a chairman being forced to resign. Just one example :

[url= http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/03/15/us-japan-nuclear-idUST7529420070315 ]Outrage over Japan nuclear reactor coverup[/url]

there was a program about windscale on TV a while back, i found it a compelling but chilling story.
a friend of the family wrote a book called 'maximum credible accident' about a nuclear disaster in the u.k. will see if i can get hold of a copy.

Compared to the deaths and devastation caused by the tsunami the reactor problems are utterly insignificant. I doubt that'll add a fraction of a percent to the impact

Well, if you lived on the coast (near those power stations) you stood more chance of getting killed by water than radiation. Several thousand times more

Only with in the time scale of the last week though.

Yes that appears to be the line that The Resister is now pushing aracer :

[i]"Nonetheless its human consequences seem certain to remain insignificant against the horrifying backdrop of the earthquake tragedy elsewhere in Japan"[/i]

IE, Fukushima has gone tits up, but it won't kill 10,000 + like the earthquake/Tsunami.

So the human consequences [i]"seem certain"[/i] to remain insignificant, which is nice to know. Although only 2 days ago The Resister seemed certain that [i]"Fukushima is a triumph for nuke power"[/i] and claimed that [i]"Japan's nuclear powerplants have performed magnificently"[/i]

Today however, The Resister is claiming that Fukushima is [i]"definitely the second worst nuclear accident yet seen"[/i] ....and yes that's "definite" btw.

Still, as long as they seem certain that everything is definite, then I guess that's alright.

CUrrent headline for the Telegraph is New Chernobyl 48 hours away

Reading between the lines though, they mention the relief efforts to stricken parts not getting there and peple enduring freezing weather.

Is it at all possible the reactors are being used to draw our attention away from the fact that they aren't managing to cope with the rescue/clean up and are in fact in a lot more of a disaster situation than is being let on.

but the government raised the maximum allowable radiation exposure for workers from 100 millisieverts per year to 250, which it said was “unavoidable due to the circumstances”

THat I find a fascinitating statement.

All 3 events in Japan are horrific each and of themselves. The humanitarian issues dealing with the refugees is enormous and have, outside Japan, become less [i]newsworthy[/i] than the ongoing saga with 4 ageing US designed nuclear reactors which through whatever process are now in a state of near catastrophic failure.
It would be interesting (as an exercise) to consider how the UK would be able to react to a similar group of calamities. I would think that your students might be quite surprised, and I rather suspect not in a good way.

It might also be worth working out the probability, given plate movements, of the UK finding itself in an active earthquake zone when a one-in-one-thousand year quake hits.

Today however, The Resister is claiming that Fukushima is "definitely the second worst nuclear accident yet seen" ....and yes that's "definite" btw

Did you read the rest of the article or just the headline?
[url= http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/16/fukushima_wednesday/page2.html ]Rest here[/url]

4 ageing US designed nuclear reactors

Again, does the STW world consider it possible that there are fossil fuel interests steering these news stories or should I put my tin foil hat away?

[i]A morbid interest in the meltdown[/i]

The media are desperately praying for a meltdown or at least a few more dramatic hydrogen explosions. As it is they're restricted to showing the same three bangs over and over while conjecturing wildly about what "might" happen, quite entertaining given that half of them can't even pronounce the word "nuclear" never mind understand anything about nuclear power.

No, it's not the same as a bomb, it's nothing like Chernobyl, get over yourselves.

it's ramifications for the nuclear power industry as a whole, worldwide, are likely to be felt for a long time.

Nuclear power is one of the few viable alternatives to fossil fuel in my book and this will set the cause back a long way. The americans are already getting jittery.

Nuclear power is one of the few viable alternatives to fossil fuel in my book and this will set the cause back a long way.

+1 Lessons can be learnt but rational must be maintained, the causes of what's occurring in Japan are fairly unlikely in the UK and most or Europe!

I must say the reporting of this in the media has been pretty shocking, last night Newsnight confused fission with fusion, and then had a round table discussion with a Japanese concert pianist and a actress who'd once played a survivor of Nagasaki. I mean, WTF?!

The only competent 'expert' I've seen so far was on the Today program this morning, he raised the question of why they were dumping water from the air - not going to cool the core as the containment vessel is in the way, could be cooling the containment vessel (but why would you want to particularly), and it's a rubbish way to fill up the cool pond. He also pointed out that the radiation released thus far has been largely assoicated with the short term isotopes in the steam

CUrrent headline for the Telegraph is New Chernobyl 48 hours away

Did you read the rest of the article or just the headline?

"The americans are already getting jittery." errr yep. Apparently in my wifes home town of Austin, pharmacies are experiencing a run on Iodine tablets!! Yes it's serious in Japan but I don't think Texas needs to worry quite yet.

Whilst this may set back civilian nuclear projects, it may force additional research and funding into other non fossil fuel based energy projects which may be no bad thing.

1 Lessons can be learnt but rational must be maintained, the causes of what's occurring in Japan are fairly unlikely in the UK and most or Europe!

so the volcanic balearic islands and iceland are no threat then?
there was a program on the telly a few years ago about a volcano on the balearics that was possibly going to slide into the sea and cause a tsunami.

I'm a process engineer with a specialisation in safety and loss prevention, so i'm finding this both interesting and disturbing in equal measure. I'd look forward to reading the 'what went wrong' report in a couple of years, if I didn't think that the japanese nuclear industry are going to whitewash it 🙁

Dobbo wrote:

fairly unlikely

Hopefully if there's a likely hood of it happening and the UK being hard hit it will be taken in to account, maybe you should email BNFL and advise them to watch the program!

There was a program about the world being hit by a meteorite a while back where do you stop...

The attempts at dropping water from chinooks looks particularly futile and worryingly desperate!

I'd look forward to reading the 'what went wrong' report in a couple of years, if I didn't think that the japanese nuclear industry are going to whitewash it

Depends on what part of what went wrong you are most interested in, the part that made them decide to build it on low level ground facing the ring of fire earthquake and Tsunami risk. Or the part that the backup systems failed, which I suppose is related to the first point.

The human factor mostly, the events/mistakes that seem to be turning an incident into a disaster.

mikewsmith - Member

Did you read the rest of the article or just the headline?

Rest here

[b]Of course I read the rest of the article, why wouldn't have.......because I didn't copy and paste the whole of it ?

And btw, your link is to page 2 of the article - why ? what's wrong with page 1 .......don't you like it ?

I tell you what, since you presumably think there is something "suspicious" about me only copying and pasting one sentence, let me do it all :[/b]

[i]The situation at the Fukushima Daiichi powerplant has worsened significantly as it becomes clear that one and possibly two reactors there have suffered a breach in primary containment, making the incident definitely the second worst nuclear accident yet seen.

Nonetheless its human consequences seem certain to remain insignificant against the horrifying backdrop of the earthquake tragedy elsewhere in Japan: and there remain no grounds for anyone to fear for their health.

Nuclear experts at MIT confirm that leaks from the suppression chamber at Daiichi No 2 reactor reported yesterday do in fact amount to a breach in primary containment, contradicting a statement supplied to World Nuclear News at the time by plant operator TEPCO. The doughnut-shaped suppression chamber is believed to have been damaged by a hydrogen-oxygen explosion like those which have wracked the site since the weekend, but this time occurring inside the primary containment shell rather than outside as previously seen.

It now appears that a similar breach may have taken place at the plant's No 3 reactor: Japanese chief cabinet secretary Edano raised the possibility in a briefing during the early hours of today (UK time). There was no loud blast as at No 2, but a brief burst of intense radiation emissions similar to that following the No 2 rupture has been seen at No 3.

The original radiation surge following the No 2 breach prompted withdrawal of most of the hundreds of workers then on site. A small team remained. The initial rise in radiation then declined, but the further surge early this morning led to a brief total evacuation. However, as this is written a small team is back on site. Plant personnel are reportedly spending most of their time in heavily protected control rooms.

According to the MIT experts, these rises in radiation will have been caused mostly by short-lived radioactive isotopes within the cloud of steam and gases emitted from reactor No 2 and possibly from No 3: the bulk of these decay to small levels within minutes. Most of them are isotopes of noble gases such as argon, meaning that they are chemically unreactive and can't be absorbed by human bodies, the ground, plants or animals etc.

As of latest reports, the Nos 1, 2 and 3 reactor cores are still being cooled using seawater pumped by the site's firefighting systems. Their residual heat has now dropped to around 0.5 per cent of normal output, easing the problems of cooling them. The primary power reaction was shut off as control rods were automatically slammed in when the quake hit, but intermediate reactions will continue for months: present levels of heating - estimated to be approximately 12 megawatts at the No 2 reactor - will have halved again by the summer.

If cooling can be maintained, the cores will continue to emit mainly shortlived isotopes, and the radiation problem will remain minimal. If cores melt down fully - it is acknowledged that the fuel rods have already sustained significant heat damage - the potential is there for significant amounts of dangerous long-lived radioisotopes of chemicals such as iodine to escape from the breached primary containment vessel (or vessels), though the residual heating power of the core material would be much reduced by melting and probable resolidification in water remaining at the bottom of the containment, or having dispersed into the steel and concrete base of the vessel.

At present, according to Edano, radiation levels within the plant are back down to levels where there is "on the whole no health hazard".

Elsewhere at the stricken plant there have been fires at a storage pool in the No 4 reactor building, which was shut down when the quakes hit. Spent fuel rods from the reactor are stored in the pool to keep them safely cool. An initial fire, doused by firefighters in the early hours of yesterday morning, may have been caused by an oil leak but there is strong evidence to suggest that hydrogen has emitted from the pool - which would also suggest that the spent rods are exposed to the air.

If spent fuel rods are left exposed long enough they will become so hot as to suffer damage, though this takes some time. Edano stated this morning that efforts to get water into the pool are to begin shortly using pumps on the ground, an earlier plan to drop it from helicopters having been abandoned. Edano said it was important to add water gradually "as there are safety concerns" with dumping a large amount in at once. This would indicate that the rods are believed to be exposed and hot, and a steam explosion could result from a sudden massive water dump.

Asked if it was possible for the spent rods to restart a powerful reaction of the sort seen in a reactor core - which would make it very hard to cool them effectively in the storage pool - Edano stated that this is not a realistic risk.

Next page: Health consequences[/i]

[b]So what's your point mikewsmith ? My point was that The Resister has completely changed its position within two days. Yesterday it was saying that Fukushima is definitely the second worst nuclear accident ever and the situation is very serious. And yet two days previously it had been saying that it wasn't serious and represented a "triumph".

Now I personally don't know what is true, but I recognise backtracking when I see it.

Oh wait, I didn't copy and paste the whole article from 3 days ago, just one sentence, so I better do it :[/b]

[i]Analysis Japan's nuclear powerplants have performed magnificently in the face of a disaster hugely greater than they were designed to withstand, remaining entirely safe throughout and sustaining only minor damage. The unfolding Fukushima story has enormously strengthened the case for advanced nations – including Japan – to build more nuclear powerplants, in the knowledge that no imaginable disaster can result in serious problems.

Let's recap on what's happened so far. The earthquake which hit on Friday was terrifically powerful, shaking the entire planet on its axis and jolting the whole of Japan several feet sideways. At 8.9 on the Richter scale, it was some five times stronger than the older Fukushima plants had been designed to cope with.

If nuclear powerplants were merely as safe as they are advertised to be, there should have been a major failure right then. As the hot cores ceased to be cooled by the water which is used to extract power from them, control rods would have remained withdrawn and a runaway chain reaction could have ensued – probably resulting in the worst thing that can happen to a properly designed nuclear reactor: a core meltdown in which the superhot fuel rods actually melt and slag down the whole core into a blob of molten metal. In this case the only thing to do is seal up the containment and wait: no radiation disaster will take place1, but the reactor is a total writeoff and cooling the core off will be difficult and take a long time. Eventual cleanup will be protracted and expensive.

In fact, though the quake was far beyond design limits, all the reactors went into automatic shutdown perfectly: triumph number one. Control rods slammed into the cores, absorbing the neutrons spitting from the fuel rods and pinching off the uranium-fission chain reactions powering the plant.

However, the cores were still producing heat and radiation at this point: intermediate radioactive isotopes of caesium and iodine are created during normal running. They have short half-lives and decay to insignificant levels within days of a shutdown, but for that time the reactor will still produce a few per cent of the heat it puts out in normal running – and this is still a lot of heat. If it is not dealt with, it can eventually melt down parts of the core, though the resulting mess will not be nearly as bad as a runaway meltdown.

Thus, even with the control rods in, the core still needs to be cooled for some days until the "residual" heating dies away and so power and water need to be supplied for this purpose. Backup cooling driven by diesels came on at all the plants without trouble, despite the way-beyond-spec hit from the quake: triumph number two.

For a few hours all was well. Then the tsunami – again, bigger than the plant had been built to cope with – struck, knocking out the diesel backups and the backup diesel backups.

Needless to say, this being a nuclear powerplant, there was another backup and this one worked despite having been through a beyond-spec quake and the tsunami. Battery power cut in and the cores continued to be cooled, giving the plant operators some hours of leeway to bring in mobile generators: triumph number three.

Unfortunately it appears that the devastation from the quake and tsunami was sufficient that mobile power wasn't online at all the sites before the temperatures inside the cores began to climb seriously. At this stage the cores are sitting immersed in cooling water inside their terrifically thick and strong airtight containment vessels. As the water is not being circulated and cooled any more, it is getting hotter, turning to steam, and pressure is building inside the vessel. Left alone the vessel interior will presently become hot enough to start melting the tough alloy casings of the fuel rods, at which stage the interior will fill with long-half-life radioactive materials – and will thus have to be buttoned up tightly and abandoned for a long time, creating a mess.[/i]