Nice job demonstrating why they voted leave in the first place.
Adults own their mistakes, not something that the leave mob have managed yet. Too many in all strata of society expect someone else to do the hard work/pay for them, they need disabusing of this idea.
The quickest way to cool inflation is to strengthen the £s value.
Just like inflation wasn't technically controlled by governments (you could argue forever and a day about that I suppose but it was a side effect of lockdown) - neither are they really in control of it.
It will subside itself. Not saying it won't still have an affect but it will start dipping of its own accord.
Lifting interests rates makes money more expensive and inflates assets - those that add to inflation in the first place. Buyers and sellers of ££ control the rate of supply and demand - the dollar has clearly taken all the cash in the last few months and DXY has been sky high. This won't last.
I'd say it's a rock and a hard place but lifting interest rates works against the majority of people.
But like everything in these lop-sided economies - benefits the rich.
Lifting interest rates was a huge mistake in my opinion.
These economies rely to much on the movement of property for income generation. It's only serviced ultimately by debt. Crap economies.
Also 2% inflation doesn't really mean anything. It's a total arbitrary target with associated complications in itself.
We will swing to deflation I reckon. That will be messy.
Mathematically the rate of inflation should start to moderate - as long as those with the power to set prices (such as utilities) don't start leap frogging current rates with inflation plus price increases. Whether it settles at a "new normal" of say 5% or runs straight back through the old levels to deflation is yet to be seen; both are plausible with my money on the former (as a service led economy and a shortage of labour in many sectors wage settlements will likely keep inflation bubbling).
Higher interest rates ultimately hurt asset values, higher inflation rates favour borrowers over the long term, so although higher interest rates hurt right now, those that have modest borrowings actually do OK over the long term in real terms. It's why governments don't mind some modest inflation as it devalues the size of debts over time (mind you, our masters had the bright idea of linking the cost of a chunk of our national debt to inflation rates, and that is going to hurt).
When inflating asset values help give the illusion of rising wealth, as has been the case for a number of years, the adjustment in living standards is really painful when the trend reverses, as is happening right now.
although the rate of inflation will reduce - it has to, it can't keep going at this, the prices that underlie the inflation numbers won't go back.
The very definition (as in CPI / RPI) compares a basket of goods to its price a year ago. And even if the prices in Dec 23 have slowed and are close to this year (say 2-3%, in line with target) then they'll still be 12-13% higher, and if wages haven't increased by higher then we're all still real terms worse off. Yet Gov will say they've got it back under control, and to stop moaning, that we don't need wage increases, etc.
This is what i don't get about the rate rises to slow inflation. It's going to slow anyway. We haven't had a steady increase in prices, as much as an very rapid step change caused by external factors.
It's probably right to have rates close to where they are now, as opposed to the historic low rates we have had..... but if they keep rising because inflation remains high, I don't really understand.
And even if the prices in Dec 23 have slowed and are close to this year (say 2-3%, in line with target) then they’ll still be 12-13% higher, and if wages haven’t increased by higher then we’re all still real terms worse off. Yet Gov will say they’ve got it back under control, and to stop moaning, that we don’t need wage increases, etc.
That’s the plan. Embed a lower real wage lower quality of life UK. After a few years people will just accept this as the new normal. See also the last 10 years.
There's also the issue that a lot of the population don't understand what these inflation numbers actually mean. If inflation drops but is still a positive number then a lot of people think that means prices are going down rather than just going up more slowly. It's the same people who don't understand loan agreements and only look at the monthly payment, totally ignoring how much they are actually paying back and what the actual amount of interest is. Having had to explain to, on the surface, educated friends how it all works was an eye opener a few years ago. Financial education is near non-existent for a lot of people.
The massive sell off in social housing was one of the prime drivers in the inflation of house prices. As soon as social housing stock became limited, private rent started to increase. That increase triggered the rise in buy to let, fuelled by ever cheaper and more attainable credit. Now private rental prices are by far the biggest sector of rented accommodation and their securing at low rates will now mean that as rates start to rise, rental rates will also start to rise.
Property prices will also fall, but not enough to offset the massive rise in mortgage rates meaning that there will still be a big group of people who can’t get on the ladder and a group of people that can’t sell their buy to let (or don’t want to at these prices) meaning that it’ll all just stagnate just like in 2010.
We’re looking at a £500/m increase in mortgage costs come March 24.
We’re looking at a £500/m increase in mortgage costs come March 24.
You mean you personally, or on average?
It's scary but has been predictable for ages, looking at historical numbers. The issue is if decisions on affordability have been made on these sorts of rates or on rates at fractions of a %. Or indeed, if the surplus of income over the low rates has then been committed elsewhere.
I mean gym memberships can be cancelled, cutbacks can be made on entertainment or eating out, etc. - still very poor for the economy overall. But if your family car is now a credit deal on a big german branded 4x4 that's not easy to unwind.
That’s the plan.
I don't think it's a plan, it's just what's going to happen after people had a lifestyle for years not justified by their economic output. The only decision the government have taken is not to let people down gently.
Dazh, Brexit was down to small minded people making ignorant and nasty choices. Appeasing stupid is the right thing to do, a dose of reality is what they deserve, unfortunately the rest have to live with consequences of their visceral selfishness so I have even less sympathy.
Brexit was down to small minded people
I see we’re still doing sneering snobbery about brexit. Not only do you look down on people who wanted to try to change a system that wasn’t working for them, you actually wish them harm. Nice! And you wonder why they voted as they did?
Financial education is near non-existent for a lot of people.
It's absolutely shameful that basic, real-life financial education isn't part of a required national curriculum.
Not only do you look down on people who wanted to try to change a system that wasn’t working for them
And is that which has replaced the EU working for these people now? I suspect not and until they acknowledge this they are stuck in their own cleft stick. Populism is not a sound basis for government and it didn't work the last time a certain corporal tried it.
I'm just back from a trip to the Topography of Terror in Berlin, the parallels are disturbing. The finances didn't work for the German people then and they were led by people (born around 1900) with a grievance formed when they were teenaged and the first war ended in defeat. We're all ready demonising asylum seekers, Muslims and foreigners; the press is either full on right wing or a propaganda arm of the ruling party. and failure to support the party or country is not tolerated. It's all a bit worrying.
It’s absolutely shameful that basic, real-life financial education isn’t part of a required national curriculum.
Absolutely.
It's not snobbery it's calling out the motivations of people who have helped put the boot into this country and are now blubbering about it. So that system may not have been working for them but that doesn't excuse their decision to burn everything down and hurt everyone, very altruistic. And you wonder why I don't feel over flowing sympathy with these people. And no i don't wish them harm but if their lives are made worse by their poor choices so be it.
And is that which has replaced the EU working for these people now? I suspect not and until they acknowledge this they are stuck in their own cleft stick.
Not it's not. But the choice was stick with a system that isn't working, or give something else a go even if success isn't guaranteed. It's not surprising lots of people chose the latter. I'm pretty certain they know it's not working, but do you think they're going to admit that while you lot celebrate their mistake and revel in your supposed superiority?
that doesn’t excuse their decision to burn everything down and hurt everyone,
I get the sentiment, but that wasn't their intention, and they were too desperate/ignorant to want to understand the warnings.
The problem is, those same people, along with everyone suffering as a result of this and other crises, are now more desperate, and will soon want to actually burn down everything and hurt everyone. And there's a lot of them, and no one in a position to try and support them and turn things around has the balls to do so.
We’re looking at a £500/m increase in mortgage costs come March 24.
You mean you personally, or on average?
I mean me personally. We can afford it, as our affordability was always based on the chance of 7% rates (well - 6.8% as I figured if they went higher than this for a long period, pretty much everything was on fire) but it’s still a £6k a year hit that we’re now no longer putting into overpaying or savings. Coupled with double energy costs and almost double food costs - it’s looking like almost an extra £1000 going out the door every month.
A significant proportion of people who voted for Brexit were sold a lie. Farage, Johnson, Gove, Mogg and the ERG - they knew that they had no clear idea of what would happen, but pushed the narrative of their fictional beliefs anyway.
I’d like to see them all in court, bankrupt and eventually exiled for the damage they willingly caused to the UK. This would be the only justice.
A significant proportion of people who voted for Brexit were sold a lie. Farage, Johnson, Gove, Mogg and the ERG
Yup. The only people who should be derided and victimised are those who promoted and led the brexit lie. The hatred displayed againt brexit voters is just another example of people pointing the finger at the powerless people at the bottom rather than the people at the top. It's not just those rabid right wing who are good at picking convenient scapegoats for society's problems.
FFS why do people still parrot this economically illiterate tabloid nonsense?
FFS why do people still parrot this far left economic twaddle. There is more sense on the crypto currency thread.
revel in your supposed superiority?
No, see up there ^ I expect adults to own their decisions and admit their mistakes, making excuses for them isn't helping them either.
far left economic twaddle
I've never heard of our capitalist fiat money system being described as 'far left' before. Care to explain why this is? I'm sure all the neo-liberal economists and bankers who designed our monetary system would be surprised to be described this way. 😕
I see we’re still doing sneering snobbery about brexit. Not only do you look down on people who wanted to try to change a system that wasn’t working for them, you actually wish them harm. Nice! And you wonder why they voted as they did?
I think it's clear that the system was at least partially working for them (the EU side of things) and the alternative certainly seems to be a lot worse. There would be a certain degree of schadenfreude to see them reap the consequences of their actions, if it were not also happening to everyone who didn't vote so irresponsibly.
Personally I can observe that these people have actively done me and my family quite a bit of harm, both in our future opportunities and our financial health - these costs were spelled out extremely clearly at the time, so it was an active choice to vote to enact them (and given the clarity and obviousness of the consequences by the 2019 election, you could argue that those people that voted for it were actively voting to do my family harm (at a macro level)).
People need to take responsibility for their actions, and that includes those who voted for brexit and everything that followed. It's not sneering to point this out, and there is no particular responsibility for those who didn't vote leave to fix the problem caused by those that did.
To use an analogy, If someone sets fire to their home and then complains that their house burnt down and now they have no where to live, people will rightly point out that perhaps setting fire to their house was an obviously foolish thing to do (esp if they had been warned about what happens if you burn your house down on purpose).
To use an analogy, If someone sets fire to their home and then complains that their house burnt down
What if they live in a mouldy hovel, can’t afford the exorbitant rent and are one crisis away from being homeless? Then when someone comes along and tells them they can fix all that but first they have to burn their shitty house down along with the houses of the people who refuse to help them, then they might just take the risk.
Ewan all you’re doing is demonstrating your own selfishness. You expect people at the bottom to tolerate and accept their poverty whilst you live a comfortable life. And then you get angry when they decide to burn your house down.
Like I said, it’s nothing more than sneering snobbery. Try putting yourself in their shoes maybe? I reckon if I was paying 500 quid a month for a leaky mouldy terrace stuck on a minimum wage job in the arse end of Sunderland I would have voted for a change, any change that was offered and damn the consequences.
I would have voted for a change, any change that was offered and damn the consequences.
Electoral reform - nope, a socialist government - nope, a vanity project backed by the wealthy right wing - ok, lets try that and see if it helps.
Good grief Dazh, your condescension and wish to defend the indefensible is incredible. People voted for Brexit, it was their democratic right, they exercised it badly. Very few were on the breadline, a lot thought they deserved a better standard of living and blamed others for it, mainly foreigners, hard working people who came to this country and actively contributed to it.
There were plenty of people who warned of the impending disaster, those voting for Brexit wilfully or ignorantly did not need the warnings, preferring to indulge in a bit of racism or somehow thinking they were sticking it to the man by voting for Brexit. They were wrong, it's no longer a debate. Stop trying to excuse them, it's like you don't think the people who voted for Brexit were capable of making a grown up choice and need to be protected from the consequences of their actions.
What if they live in a mouldy hovel, can’t afford the exorbitant rent and are one crisis away from being homeless? Then when someone comes along and tells them they can fix all that but first they have to burn their shitty house down along with the houses of the people who refuse to help them, then they might just take the risk.
Ewan all you’re doing is demonstrating your own selfishness. You expect people at the bottom to tolerate and accept their poverty whilst you live a comfortable life. And then you get angry when they decide to burn your house down.
You don't know anything about me and I'm pretty certain I don't expect people at the bottom to tolerate their poverty. For one thing there were a lot of people who aren't at the bottom who voted to leave.
What I do expect of everyone is for them to exercise some due judgement. Informed opinion was overwhelmingly that Brexit would trigger numerous problems, those people that said 'it'll be fine and actually great' didn't seem to have great qualifications to be saying this, and therefore I paid them little attention. There are many many things i'm not an expert on, and therefore I listen to experts when I need advice on what to do (e.g. I go to the doctor and I listen to their advice).
Please explain how expecting this is selfish? To me it's just expecting people to be responsible.
From what I make out you're suggesting:
a) People that voted to leave were in poverty
b) Anyone in poverty is unable to exercise judgement and just believes whatever anyone tells them
c) Anyone who is poor is entitled to be destructive towards society without being held responsible
d) Those who didn't vote leave were not in poverty
e) Those who are not in poverty don't care about those that are
Correct?
a) People that voted to leave were in poverty
Not all, and maybe not in poverty, but most definitely in the lower income groups. The people who tipped the balance were the northern working class in the so-called red wall. People who live in areas of either outright deprivation or perpetual decline and stagnation. Have you been to a northern market town recently?
b) Anyone in poverty is unable to exercise judgement and just believes whatever anyone tells them
No, quite the opposite. They correctly identified that the system we had pre-2016 wasn't doing a thing to help them break out of their situation so voted to change it. They may have been wrong in believing brexit would help them, but had no choice as keeping everything the same wasn't really an option.
c) Anyone who is poor is entitled to be destructive towards society without being held responsible
Yes, absolutely. If the poor and dispossessed don't stand up for themselves then nothing changes. That's why kids aren't sent into factories any more and we don't have 16 hour working days, along with holiday pay and the weekend.
d) Those who didn’t vote leave were not in poverty
Mostly yes. Outside of the millionaire racists in the home counties, why would anyone well off vote to leave? The political and economic system was serving them very well.
e) Those who are not in poverty don’t care about those that are
Absolutely. In general this point is undeniable. If it wasn't true then there'd be much less poverty in this country.
great, another brexit thread.
the so-called red wall…They correctly identified that the system we had pre-2016 wasn’t doing a thing to help them break out of their situation so voted to change it.
Who then voted to keep the system that’s been stamping on them for the last decade? Thick as mince.
Electoral reform – nope, a socialist government – nope, a vanity project backed by the wealthy right wing
An intersting question. The electoral reform vote was completely botched and no one cared about of PR vs FPTP because most people don't have the time or energy to worry about the mechanics of electoral systems. That and it was the brainchild of a massively unpopular liberal democrat party.
Socialist government? Well seeing as most of the press and parliamentary labour party, including ex-labour leaders and an ex-Prime Minister spent all their time telling people it was a bad idea it was hardly a surprise it didn't happen.
Brexit? Well the guy who was a the forefront of it knew how to talk to working people where the westminster establishment didn't. Also the remain campaign was focused massively on the centrist liberal mostly metropolitan section of society. Hardly a surprise then that after 20 years of anti-EU propaganda and a massively dysfunctional remain campaign that people decided against it.
Anyway, WTF has this got to do with interest rates???
.
great, another brexit thread.
Yep. Totally predictable and of utterly no interest now. 🙄
This was a decent thread (he does put a lot out) from Richard Murphy.
https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1604420757580292096?t=zwwUmryfY4Kti31Jzh79WA&s=19
Once you realise how the odds are stacked in favour of asset owners, you see how the economy is shaped around benefitting those people that it never works out for the lower income end of society.
It really is that obvious.
The economy is geared for a tiny group. It should be blasted out of existence.
I generally stick with the idea things are always the opposite of what they should be if there's going to be transfer of wealth.
In other words don't engineer a recession just because the pound is week as the recession will do far more damage.
Anyway, WTF has this got to do with interest rates???
Several people said the current economic situation is a result of the Brexit vote. Which it probably is, in part.
Although IMO both the economic situation and Brexit itself are a result of the Conservatives being hijacked by the incompetent (starting with Cameron, and continuing through Truss) and the hard right.
Several people said the current economic situation is a result of the Brexit vote. Which it probably is, in part.
strange then that the US and EU are experiencing much of the same economic pain. It’s a combination of the fallout from 2008, covid and Ukraine. More than anything else though it’s due to the failure and unfitness for purpose of the neo-liberal economic model. It doesn’t work, and needs to be replaced.
Several people said the current economic situation is a result of the Brexit vote. Which it probably is, in part.
Although IMO both the economic situation and Brexit itself are a result of the Conservatives being hijacked by the incompetent (starting with Cameron, and continuing through Truss) and the hard right.
Yes this is taking a lot of getting through to people who thought everything was great until Brexit.
It's so economically ignorant. And assumes you were one of the nice middle ground benefactors.
We have been declining for years.
Marketisation of basic services will take us downhill. And leave the government to intervene at the last minute.
The state has all the power it needs to fix things. We just have to decide which things needed fixing and get behind it.
no one cared about of PR vs FPTP because most people don’t have the time or energy to worry about the mechanics of electoral systems
That was never the choice. But it makes you think, why did they have the time and energy to worry about the EU? The answer of course is “the papers”.
Socialist government? Well seeing as most of the press…
I see a pattern.
Also the remain campaign was focused massively on the centrist liberal mostly metropolitan section of society.
Well, that’s nonsense. The remain campaign simply pointed out we’d have years of political and economic turmoil that would negatively effect those already worse off. There was no focus on the “metropolitan” sections of society by the Remain campaign, what you are confusing that with is that the Leave campaigns were very successful in targeting the areas outside our metropolitan areas. All the talk of borders and breaking points never played as well in the big cities. The Remain campaign had nothing to offer people led by the papers to blame immigrants.
Yes this is taking a lot of getting through to people who thought everything was great until Brexit.
Always a great strawman that one.
It doesn’t work, and needs to be replaced
Absolutely.
This is the tricky one. People are happy drifting along.
All the utterly stupid comments about not changing things because of being ideologically pure - well this hasn't stopped the right driving their deal home, so how do you recalibrate an entire crooked system without having an ideology?
You can't. You get Starmer. The answer to zero problems.
Always a great strawman that one.
You clearly don't read enough Ian Dunt, Polly Toynbee, Marina Purkiss.
Etc.
Well, that’s nonsense. The remain campaign simply pointed out we’d have years of political and economic turmoil that would negatively effect those already worse off.
In or out of the EU that had already taken place.
Why weren't our town centres so great when in the EU? I do wonder.
Why was our infrastructure so shit whilst members of the EU?
Why was our economic model built on low wages - whilst members of the EU?
Virtually anything related to the state. A downward mess.
Our economy built on a parasitic service sector. In the EU.
The whole model is wrecked. The EU didn't save us.
(This is not to say being in the EU wasn't necessarily preferable.)
For the people around me in the Red Wall they haven't seen the benefits. We've been under invested and shat upon since the demise of the coal-fields and sure blaming migrants was absolutely the wrong target but you can't blame the wallers for not feeling the benefits, because they weren't that apparent frankly.
The EU has been every governments bogey man for 30-40 years.
We had shit governments for most of that time, but it wasn't due to being in the EU. That was what the incompetent self serving arseholes wanted you to think.
Have you been to a northern market town recently?
Yes. Plenty of people in these towns did not vote to leave so they must have realised that it wasn't going to help.
c) Anyone who is poor is entitled to be destructive towards society without being held responsible
Yes, absolutely. If the poor and dispossessed don’t stand up for themselves then nothing changes. That’s why kids aren’t sent into factories any more and we don’t have 16 hour working days, along with holiday pay and the weekend.
Suggesting that being a member of the EU is the same as sending kids into factories and working 16 hours a day is pretty spectacular false equivalence. Not least since the EU actively constrains working hours and sending kids into factories! It's not remotely the same thing, and what we've been left with wants to take away workers rights.
d) Those who didn’t vote leave were not in poverty
Mostly yes. Outside of the millionaire racists in the home counties, why would anyone well off vote to leave? The political and economic system was serving them very well.
Why did you vote leave?
Why did you vote leave?
I voted remain. I’d probably vote to rejoin if a vote was held tomorrow. I don’t however think EU membership is a cure for all of our problems. It’s a nice to have, rather than an absolute essential.
I don’t however think EU membership is a cure for all of our problems. It’s a nice to have, rather than an absolute essential.
If we were to properly join in and not send less than useful MEP's across it could be a good start to solving some of our problems. Maybe with a warning to those thinking of returning Farage that there would be no government support for funding requests from that constituency. We would need to fully commit not some half-arsed repeat of what went before (Though if we get to rejoin it will be without the opt-outs we previously enjoyed due to the head-bangers in politics currently)..
