https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202906042759286790?s=20
Ipsos Mori is one of the most extreme with 16pt Tory lead last poll.
They also polled people's thoughts on who was having the best campaign - Tories by far - apparently.
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign and how easy a ride its giving Johnson is utterly depressing to witness
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign and how easy a ride its giving Johnson is utterly depressing to witness
And they should do what?
I tell you this - I've been involved in the local campaign recently (offering my media services where time allows) filming the local Hustings (which just happened to be hosted by an independent school) and a vote sample was taken - this in a 70% Brexit constituency - widley tipped to go Tory - and Labour were way out in front on the vote. Not what I expected. And this is purely down to the campaigning effort thus far by the Labour PPC / Labour at large.
Treasury report on Johnson’s Brexit leak today is good.
Pointing out that the new hospitals promise is a lie so good.
Pointing out that the additional nurses promise is a lie is good.
Pointing out that the new GP promise is worthless as similar promises have been made and broken by the same party at the last two elections is good.
Pointing out that the police staffing promise doesn’t even replace the police that the Tories cut is good.
Pointing out mental health services for kids have been decimated is good.
Pointing out A&E waiting times are at an all time high is good.
Pointing out that any lopsided trade deal with the USA will negatively effect the NHS is good.
Pointing out that relying on the regulated private sector to provide key infrastructure is holding the UK back is good.
Pointing out that spending on transport has to shift from road to rail to meet climate objectives is good.
Pointing out that shifting from gas to renewables has to happen fast to meet climate objectives is good.
The trouble is people queue up to reward Boris Johnson's bad behaviour. That's the rub. People actively go for his lies. Corbyn could walk on water - but you ain't doing battle with that irrational logic.
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign
I think you must be watching a different one to the one I'm seeing.
The polls seem to show that most people are watching the same one as me 🙁
The polls seem to show that most people are watching the same one as me
They're polls - they reflect people's perception plus possibly out-moded weighting - they're not a critique on how good a campaign is.
They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.
Of course, voters are swayed by far more than the campaign… everything said or done (or not said and done) before the campaign has set many people down a voting path that last minute campaigns will not shift. Some have bought into the “success” of the swing managed in the 2017 campaign, and think the same level of change is possible again, as if voters will ignore the last two years.
a vote sample was taken – this in a 70% Brexit constituency – widley tipped to go Tory – and Labour were way out in front on the vote. Not what I expected.
+1 My constituency's the same. Conventioal wisdom says it should go one way, all the evidence I'm seeing (and there's a fair bit) is that it's going a completely different way.
This election is impossible to call. We simply don't know how the seats are going to fall. (From what I'm hearing I don't even trust the raw poll data but that's a seperate issue.)
They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.
Alright so the fact the gaps have close over the last few weeks would indicate a positive direction?
Agreed, trying to map national polling to local seats is a fools errand.
+1 My constituency’s the same. Conventioal wisdom says it should go one way, all the evidence I’m seeing (and there’s a fair bit) is that it’s going a completely different way.
What are the particulars - out of curiosity?
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
Looking at Scotland data above- is Jo Swinson's seat safe?
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
For sure - we all accept that.
None of this translates to Binner's suggestion that the Labour campaign is wonky.
Both main parties are a complete shambles.
The trouble with these uber-threads is I can't be arsed to go through to check if the same point has been raised before, but my point with this election is: voting tory seems to be the sensible option to just... get... bl&*dy brexit... done. However, as a remainer (and given only one-third of the voting public voted to leave wayback when), I don't believe in voting in order to help get brexit done. Whilst everyone is sick and tired of the damned issue, I'd rather we keep driving the bus around in circles, than drive the thing right off the edge, right?
Brexit can be stopped, or take years. There is no path to it being “done” quickly. It’s yet another appealing but empty nebulous three word slogan.
Brexit will be super quick.
Fixing the absolute cluster fudge that follows it will take decades. A story utterly absent from all Tory horse poo merchants.
That process will have a new, different, catchy portmanteau name. Probably.
What are the particulars – out of curiosity?
On the surface a very safe blue seat. Lib dems came third last time. Lab 2nd. Leave Majority in the Referendum.
In contrast to what you'd deduce from the above, the facts on the ground seem to me to be:
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
I can't find a blue voter - they've all openly gone Lib Dem.
Outside my house I met a Blue Party member who stood as a Blue councillor in the local elections in the summer campaigning for the yellows!
I can't find a red voter - I've no idea where their votes are going but it isn't to the red candidate – my gut feel is they're either not voting or going blue and don't want to say so.
I'm convinced the numbers are going to be a real shock, maybe even the result.
I'm sure there are other places, like yours where the surprise will be a red win. My point is this election can't be predicted, you can't tell from national polling where votes in the constituencys are going. I wouldn't be ruling out any result at all.
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
Maybe but the credible media is telling us this is too close to call. If I were you I'd join the stampede away from print media and stick to the mainstream TV/Radio which is far more reliable with far more news and far less 'comment'.
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
How do you come to these conclusions if you can't find any red or blue voters?
appealing but empty nebulous three word slogan.
Which is easier to remember than Labours policy on Brexit.
What was it again?
Not as simple as a simple lie.
Which is easier to remember than Labours policy on Brexit.
What was it again?
2nd ref on a Norway deal
not that hard to figure out, is it?
The only quick way to get brexit out of the headlines is to remain. If we leave in any terms there'll be a generation of fighting against our former allies.
a Norway deal
It’s not that though, is it.
But what it isn’t is yet another undeliverable promise from a serial liar. The earliest we will effectively be outside the EU, by Johnson’s own reckoning, is over a year away. Whatever replaces EU membership will not be complete and in place, and returning us to a stable position for businesses and families, for years. Years and years of Brexit negotiations and negative changes for individuals and businesses stretch ahead of us under Johnson.
THe big issue is, as said above, people no longer care if things are out-right lies if it meet their world view. It's therefore hard to run a reasonable campaign and get your point across; which is why the tories seem to be doing well by repeating their three-word bullshit mantra.
Also, I'm not sure how many people are even listenting to the campaigns compared to having decided who they would vote for long before the election was called.
The big concern for me is the number of people (over a dozen) I've spoken to in my constituency (a labour marginal where the differnece when the tories took it in 2015 was under 30 votes) who are intelligent, pro-EU, but are sayign they won't vote for Corbyn again so will vote liberal (who had a few percent last time). You can blame the media for mis-representing Corbyn as much as you like but it doesnt change the fact he, or people's impression of him, are putting people off voting labour. I find it mindblowing that people won't hold there nose and vote tactically in such a key marginal but it seems many won't.
Years and years...stretch ahead of us under Johnson.
...And Corbyn, sadly.
There's a three word mantra Labour should get behind
(over a dozen)
Same here. Locally Corbyn is still the block to previous Labour voters voting for the only local candidate that can unseat our no-Deal Brexit advocating Tory MP. I’ve persuaded one or two to hold their noses and back the Labour candidate, but many still will not. One week to go. Keep pressing people to face up to the reality… Johnson must have his majority denied him, vote for whoever can keep your seat out of his hands… try and persuade others to do the same.
Like every public sector they are trying to do more for far less. Workloads are a huge issue,
I've dated a couple of teachers over the years. Even 15-20 years ago the amount of work they brought home - lesson prep, marking etc - was astonishing. And people think teachers have it easy with long summer holidays (when everything is three times the price). If teachers could claim overtime they'd make an absolute mint.
Based on a current sample size of "one" it would appear that TAs do more actual work in the classroom itself (though get to walk away from it at 4pm at least).
I don’t believe in voting in order to help get brexit done. Whilst everyone is sick and tired of the damned issue,
As others have said, there is no done to be got. If we do leave in whatever fashion it won't be the end of anything, it'll just be the beginning.
Voters have been told that the withdrawal agreement is simply a means for getting Brexit done. A way to make the whole thing stop. They deserve to know, not just that the process would drag on for many years to come, but also that it would harm their country in ways that go far beyond a simple cut in GDP.
@kelvin - agreed, I'm keeping on trying. The message in these cases has to be 'you're not voting for Corbyn (zero chance of a majority), you're voting against boris'
For the first time in my life, I really don't know who to vote for.
After 3 years of damaging bickering, I do believe that we need a majority government. Coalitions just tread water and focus on in-fighting rather than moving forward.
Realistically the vote therefore is for Conservative or Labour. If you don't want Labour, you have to vote Conservative, otherwise there would be a hung parliament. If you don't want Conservative, you have to vote Labour as the chance of any of the next tier parties forming a majority government is slim to bugger all.
I have traditionally voted Conservative, but I am a strong Remainer, and despite associating more with the rest of their policies than Labour, their stance on Brexit is a deal breaker for me.
If Labour would get off the fence on Brexit they could get my vote, despite Corbin, who I think is a danger to the country. But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
Despite their views on Brexit, the Lib Dems are not a realistic choice to form a majority government.
So I genuinely have a dilemma. I want to vote as I believe it is a fundamental obligation and a hard fought right that not everybody in the world has. But literally none of the choices represent me, and despite their manifestos and campaigning BS, there won't be a massive difference between any of them.
Fundamentally politics is broken. Professionally, as a business we all pull together across functions, nations and roles collaboratively, yet our politics are designed to spin and divide rather than all pulling together for the common good (climate, health, education etc - none of which should be politicised).
Grrrrrrrrr.
The vast majority of people are stupid and want an easy life interspersed with the odd laugh and vent at a common enemy. Boris provides the chance to laugh at his buffoonery and rant as to how someone so stupid has achieved such power. If you as the Tories have consistently done, depict a rival in a negative light then Boris's fun appeal only increases. He's a loveable rogue to many which is why sadly the Tories will win.
It’s not that though, is it.
its a norway deal without FOM
but labour conference backed FOM, so if he wants the access of a Norway deal he'll have to concede the FOM of the Norway deal (which is a benefit to the country anyway....) & he can just say that conference voted for it
I’m keeping on trying. The message in these cases has to be ‘you’re not voting for Corbyn (zero chance of a majority), you’re voting against boris’
Same here. A few successes, but some just don’t want their vote to be taken as support for Corbyn. Again. Brick wall. Frustrating.
its a norway deal without FOM
Self contradictory nonsense.
Labour are proposing a customs union with the EU… Norway doesn’t have that. Labour are not proposing EFTA, FoM, or us being a Single Market signatory, all of which are key to Norway’s arrangements with EU & EEA. Labour’s proposals are not based even slightly on the deal that Norway has. Don’t repeat nonsense just because it sounds simple.
why aren’t opposition parties or the media highlighting this to the electorate?
The media are entirely complicit and the leader of the opposition is planning (in the very unlikely event of getting elected) on putting what will end up being a very similar deal back to the electorate, which as a lifelong Brexiteer he will enthusiastically champion.
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
How do you come to these conclusions if you can’t find any red or blue voters?
Like this:
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
I conclude this because in the election where UKIP did well ~3500 vots came off Labour at the same time as ~3500 votes went to UKIP. At the election where UKIP fizzled ~3500 vots came off UKIP at the same time as ~3500 votes went to Labour.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
I conclude this because I'm involved in a local issue which involves a lot of contact with councillors for the local wards. Most of them are Blue and we all get on well so I know what they think of Boris. I'm extrapolating from them.
You're going to say that neither conlcusion is conclusive, and you're right. That's my point, this election is impossible to call.
If Labour would get off the fence on Brexit they could get my vote, despite Corbin, who I think is a danger to the country. But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
What fence? They've said they'll sort out a basic withdrawal agreement, put that to a legally binding referendum & go with that result.
I genuinely think that's the only way forward on Brexit now. Do you have a better idea?
Have a look at this website - https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/ it might help.
Self contradictory nonsense.
quite
which is why in the end he will have to accept the Norway deal with FOM
But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
I hear this a lot. Many people see what is in front of them as Johnson’s Brexit or Corbyn’s Brexit. Given the choice, I’d pick the latter… but others see that as the worst possible path. Why would a previously Tory voter, who can see the unavoidable damage of Brexit, vote Labour at this election if they see that as likely to result in Brexit still happening, but with Corbyn &Milne &Murray &Len &Co in charge?
I have traditionally voted Conservative, but I am a strong Remainer
You're a strong remainer and are still conflicted on who to vote for in a Tory/labour seat???
You’re a strong remainer and are still conflicted on who to vote for in a Tory/labour seat???
Because…
Corbyn &Co.
And their Brexit.
You’ll get it eventually Daz.