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Really starting to wonder if Shimano is abandoning di2 on MTBs
Be careful Wheelsonfire1. I was shouted down for the heresy of pointing out 1x is a bad expensing solution to a problem that didn't exist ('emperor's new clothes' really).
Really starting to wonder if Shimano is abandoning di2 on MTBs
I very much doubt it "trickle down" is their preferred phrase, it just means you won't see it bellow XT for a while, I mean us plebs have got 12 cogs available on Deore already, can we really afford chips with that as well?
Another +1 for stack height. But 40mm rise bars (mine are from USE) do a great job.
Agree re. 150mm for trail bikes. Ibis Ripmo is a great example, super on a big day out in the hills, although wheel & tyre choice is key. It's a very different bike running a fasttrack/ground control combination on light wheels than it is running an Assegai/Dissector combo on 35mm wide rims.
More people running 2 or 3 wheel/tyre sets would be my accompanying prediction.
And I reckon the return of singlespeed would be great (although it's already back for some of us). Would love to see a boost/disk brake version of the Sturmey Archer 3-speed hub available, or their kick-shift 2-speed. Love my SS but my knees aren't getting any younger.
I read the “16kg” thing as being a rule-of-thumb upper limit for actual trailside bike weight (i.e with pedals, tools, water bottle, etc).
You read it as the weight of the bike, and water bottle, and tools, and other stuff...
Why?
From now on trail bikes are going to have as much travel as possible so long as the overall genuine on-trail weight doesn’t stray too far over 16kg.
It was the phrase "on-trail weight" which made me think that. The weight of the actual bike you'll be riding. I may be reading too much into it 🤷♂️
More people running 2 or 3 wheel/tyre sets would be my accompanying prediction.
Multiple wheelsets was always the theory with frames which can work as 650b+ or 29er. I wonder how many people actually ran bikes like that in reality?
+1 for multiple tyres, although I suspect most people tend to fall into either a serial-tyre-swapper or one-set-and-done camp.
You may be right. I just read it as weight with pedals ( and gloop and inserts if you use thhem)
God I'm so bored and irritable after 6 weeks sat around doing **** all. Sorry.
Mr Tetchy
I very much doubt it “trickle down” is their preferred phrase, it just means you won’t see it bellow XT for a while, I mean us plebs have got 12 cogs available on Deore already, can we really afford chips with that as well?
But it's stuck on 11spd, and has been for a few years now despite 12spd trickling down to Deore.
New wheel standard for 2022. It's been too long without a new one. 675B?
God I’m so bored and irritable after 6 weeks sat around doing **** all. Sorry.
No apologies necessary if you're aiming them at me, and I hope you are able to get out soon 👍
Shimano are still working on it.what about electric hub gears.
I’d like better stock! I like all this on bike storage and some legs that don’t turn to jelly.
@rootes1, I'm not really surprised that you want more stack height 😉
I remember an old workmate owning a 26" wheeled DH bike, with a slammed stem and an 800mm flat bar! The things people do for fashion. Although I'm sure it was partly due to the bikes being short back then and you needed a low front end in order to weight the front wheel on corners.
Now, with loooooong bikes with long rear-centers, you need a higher bar in order to get the front wheel off the ground.....
Can we not transfer this to the bike forum where it belongs and make it bigger than the rich energy vs whyte post. It would be interesting to see everybodys opinion on what the next new standard or product we never knew we couldn't ride without will be, or what's on your wish list.
ok i wood like to see back some good hardtails from bc likes of chromag and covebikes back and much more xc raceing in south wales and more some help with trail building in afan and afan bike shed is haveing a new building at last.
Cove bikes are no longer a thing but Chromag are going very very strong!
Have a chat to Pedals Eco bike centre in Edinburgh as they bring them in.
As riders from the birth of mountain biking hit 50 and more,
Surely they'd all be mid 50s now. MTBs became commercially available mid 80s eg Rally Maverick (1985), Muddy Fox Explorer, Ridge Backs etc. If you bought a Rally Meverick, at say 15, in 1985 you'd be 52 this year. If you were in on the real birth, before you could just buy one in the LBS, you'd be even older.
My first MTB was a Ridgeback 601 in maybe 87/88 and I'd already spent several years being very jealous of friends with Muddy Fox Couriers / Raleigh Mavericks...
ebike developers are chasing more power and less weight.
IMO what they really need to do is make the motors serviceable. Chucking away a 1k motor and buying another if its not covered by warranty is crazy.
I own a Shimano powered one, but I'm buying another until then!
Surely they’d all be mid 50s now. MTBs became commercially available mid 80s eg Rally Maverick (1985)
'Scuse me!
I'm only 49 thanks very much.
Red Raleigh Maverick with sidepull brakes and steel rims.
and they’ll start questioning the extremely fast wear rate of 1X
Not in my experience. My 12sp GX/XO1 mix is proving pretty indestructible. just changed a chain at 3 years and roughly 1800mils and it had less than .25% wear.
What utter garbage, really really really.
Can't argue with such a well reasoned and thought through position as that
Really starting to wonder if Shimano is abandoning di2 on MTBs
My prediction is that we'll see something new from Shimano electronically, but it won't be a straight copy of of SRAM's wireless AXS (Shimano don't/won't do that) I reckon it'll be some half-way house of wired/wireless combo.
My Predictions
E-Bikes will sell more than regular bikes in wealthy western countries like UK, Germany etc.
XC racing will not die a death. Not with riders like Van Art, Pidcock in the men's happy to race everything.
EWS will die a death as it currently operates. (not sustainable)
POV MTB YouTube channels will die.
The XC bubble is going to burst
I would guess the reverse. With the evolution of world cup courses seemingly now favouring a 120mm full squish, and said bikes climbing so well that they dont give anything up - or even add benefit, despite the weight penalty - on climbs.
Its close to the point where only the tyres differentiate a pro's race weapon from the ideal <toungue in cheek> trail centre destroyer.
Downhill is getting more and more niche with many recreational riders picking enduro bikes.
Enduro race bikes have upped their game due to the above so it isn't "trail bike racing" any more.
XC will catch up to "downcountry" <shudders> as the do it all machine.
I'll still be keeping my bigger travel coil sprung skills compensator too mind.
My predictions, unfortunately, no return to simpler bikes.
Supply issues mean there's little or no point in manufacturers making anything other than making the greatest profit per unit, and that's going to mean prioritizing their expensive models. Brands offering only budget-friendly models are going to struggle to get production slots or parts to build them, again.
The bursting of the review-based media bubble.
As a consequence of that I predict manufacturers feel less need to feed the media hype machines. Why fly journos out to Moab to ride your latest 2022 electric everything dandyhorse when you're already selling out the 2024 stock? Or gamble on a grouptest when the best-case scenario is you win, but have already sold out.
Singlespeeds to make a resurgence. New bikes from Singular and Stooge. On-One finally come out with something to replace the SS Inbred.
Oh yeah, and the introduction of an E-Bike based race. I reckon it'll either be a part of EWS, and will grow so huge that EWS will effectively become an E-Bike series, or an E-bike version of it that will attract more money and support from manufacturers
But it’s stuck on 11spd, and has been for a few years now despite 12spd trickling down to Deore.
Shoving an extra sprocket on a cassette and a click on a shifter is pretty easy mechanically, and that was done to attract the OEMs, but it's probably even easier on Di2, just a firmware update, except how do they derive much extra income from that? Di2 is very much at the "Premium" end of things for them still.
Just look at Road Di2 if you want to see how shimano tend to operate with leccy shifting, they used Firmware to prevent backwards compatibility between 10 and 11 speed Ultegra Di2. The last thing they wanted was punters buying a couple of extra parts to get that extra cog, rather than needing a whole new Groupset/bike...
If you're a company flogging complete bikes, you'll shift a lot more units with 12 Deore or NX clicks than 11 or 12 XTR/X01 leccy gears, expensive bikes actually make less money so why rush to replace your flagship product early?
I don't doubt current generation 11 speed Di2 could be made to work with a 12 sprocket cassette, but it's not in shimano's interests to do it straight away, it'll come with the next facelift...
Oh yeah, and the introduction of an E-Bike based race. I reckon it’ll either be a part of EWS, and will grow so huge that EWS will effectively become an E-Bike series, or an E-bike version of it that will attract more money and support from manufacturers
Haven't a few e-bike events been tried already?
I don't doubt it will come eventually, but it's still not really proper bicycle racing is it.
The problem any E-bike racing format faces right now though is, where does the Grass roots of the sport come from?
I'm sure you could rustle up some willing pros to race a their sponsors bike, but for any sport to have "legitimacy" (IMO) you need to be getting kids/young adults involved and the cost of a competitive E-bike is still going to be pretty prohibitive (how many people under 40 with an 'Average' income buy them currently?). XC/4X/BMX/CX/Trials, even DH and Enduro, all have "E-bike racing" beat on basic cost of entry as things stand today...
With everyone's cost of living rising I really can't see "E-bike Enduro" taking off before 2024...
Haven’t a few e-bike events been tried already?
I don’t doubt it will come eventually, but it’s still not really proper bicycle racing is it.
The problem any E-bike racing format faces right now though is, where does the Grass roots of the sport come from?
I’m sure you could rustle up some willing pros to race a their sponsors bike, but for any sport to have “legitimacy” (IMO) you need to be getting kids/young adults involved and the cost of a competitive E-bike is still going to be pretty prohibitive (how many people under 40 with an ‘Average’ income buy them currently?). XC/4X/BMX/CX/Trials, even DH and Enduro, all have “E-bike racing” beat on basic cost of entry as things stand today…With everyone’s cost of living rising I really can’t see “E-bike Enduro” taking off before 2024
You clearly don't go to many events in the UK, the Enduro races are rammed with ebikes... and i do mean pretty well rammed. Cannock is rammed with Ebikes, so is 417, Forest of Dean, even Rogate had a fair few last week.
There's many many many many e-bikes out there now and plenty of them are also racing them.
You clearly don’t go to many events in the UK, the Enduro races are rammed with ebikes… and i do mean pretty well rammed. Cannock is rammed with Ebikes, so is 417, Forest of Dean, even Rogate had a fair few last week.
There’s many many many many e-bikes out there now and plenty of them are also racing them.
That's probably a fair criticism, I've not been going to any Events for the last couple of years (Family/Work/Covid excuses)...
Either way though it can't be kids rolling about on them is it? Surely it's middle-aged, middle income bracket blokes No? People already into MTBing, and with the necessary disposable income for an electro-Dandyhorse...
We'll see I suppose, I just don't see the most expensive possible flavour of bicycle taking off as a viable competitive format at all levels.
Oh I'm not saying it'll dominate at all levels, but there's enough about to be a decent series or 3. Sure you couldn't fill a 400 bike event purely with ebikes, but if you've got a 400 bike event you'll add another 100 in ebikes.
Youngsters, yup I see plenty of them on ebikes too. Plenty.
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Oh yeah, and the introduction of an E-Bike based race. I reckon it’ll either be a part of EWS, and will grow so huge that EWS will effectively become an E-Bike series, or an E-bike version of it that will attract more money and support from manufacturers
E-EWS began in 2020 IIRC
Edit (multiple edits in fact): additional 2022 prediction - this forum will continue to vomit HTML code in replies when I attempt to use the quote function!
Weight is no big deal. I've pedaled heavier than 16kg bikes on some big days out in big mountains, enjoyed it too. Value for weight is the point I think.
Mainstream MTB will be a powered sport soon enough, that was my take on MTB's future a while back and I'm more convinced of that now. People who ride non-e bikes will be part of an XC KIS sort of niche that I think will grow as bikepacking, gravel and non-race XC MTB attitudes continue to merge.
I reckon 22′ will see more “utility” bikes, based on MTBs
Yes - e-bike SUVs. City e-bikes with skinny tyres are a daft idea.
Mainstream MTB will be a powered sport soon enough
I haven't seen updated figures but a couple of years ago the average amount paid for a bike in the UK was £350. When ebikes come down to that sort of cost, they'll be mainstream. Until then they will remain the preserve of a wealthy minority.
Anyone else predicting a return to an abundance of Shimano consumables, because my cassette is gopping.
XC won’t die despite what the haterz wish.
More lightweight emtbs for sale.
I haven’t seen updated figures but a couple of years ago the average amount paid for a bike in the UK was £350. When ebikes come down to that sort of cost, they’ll be mainstream. Until then they will remain the preserve of a wealthy minority.
Whilst I don't think that'll happen, tbf he's quoting MTB whereas, and correct me if I'm wrong, you're quoting cycling as a whole?. There is definitely a greater percentage of powered MTBs being sold, but nowhere near a majority mind.
The problem any E-bike racing format faces right now though is, where does the Grass roots of the sport come from?
I think if you launched an e-bike based enduro event (or series) in the UK now, you'd fill it with no worries...
but a couple of years ago the average amount paid for a bike in the UK was £350.
For a bike maybe, for a proper reactional mountain bike used as a hobby (what we're discussing), I think the vast majority of sales will be powered (if they're not already).
Weight is no big deal. I’ve pedaled heavier than 16kg bikes on some big days out in big mountains, enjoyed it too.
OK (assuming we have a similar definition of big daybout)
But if that is the case then why do you think the following?
Mainstream MTB will be a powered sport soon enough, that was my take on MTB’s
Seems a bit contradictory
Seems a bit contradictory
I don't think it necessarily is. personally I don't think the barrier to MTB is money I think it's fitness. Mountain biking is hugely enjoyable to lots of folks, but a hard sport to do well at. It takes a certain level of fitness that many haven't got the time to keep up with. Once you've got it, a 16kg bike isn't really much of hinderance. Lose it however, and it soon becomes a slog.
The other part of this is the thought that lots have on here and other sites that e-bikes are prohibitively expensive. They're not. The £10K plus normal bike has been with us for what? A decade, maybe more, and every year there's more and more of them. Specialized sell every single S-Works bike they make, and the £8-10K market is bigger again. E-Bike have two major advantages...They're affordable as a MTB in the same way the 5 years ago you couldn't move for Bronsons and Nomads, and you don't have to be (as) fit. For the aging demographic in recreational MTB, these bikes are perfect.
Spot on Nick.
That makes no sense.
You're saying that 16kg bike is fine, and no problem for big days out.
And in the next breath you're saying that we need motors.
Unless you are differentiating yourself from the masses then it's a contradiction.
My very first post was saying that there's another option... lighter neebs.
You say you don't need a lighter neeb as you're fine on a heavy neeb, but then you say that motors are the way forward.
Which is it?
neebs.
??
You’re saying that 16kg bike is fine, and no problem for big days out.
If you're fit enough it's not. If you're fit enough a couple of kg on the bike makes little to no difference other that at the very end of really big day out when it doesn't matter what weight the bike is, you're still knackered
And in the next breath you’re saying that we need motors.
Lots of folk haven't the time or inclination to keep up a level of fitness that a big day out on a bike (regardless of how much it weighs) For those people E-bikes are the prefect gift.
Those two demographics are going to diverge further and further apart. The mainstream will probably be E-bikes for both consumer preference and profit margin reasons.