[Closed] 2022 Predictions from Singletrack - What's in the future of MTB?

More of a wish than a prediction but hoping people be a little nicer to each other, especially those with different opinions and views. I predict some wins and some frustrations.

If you couldn’t get to the ride due to isolating, or if your yearly trip to the Lakes was moved back a year, no one really minded..

Disagree

 

I hear @gdm4 and Benji's prediction of more diversity. I'm in hope.

I'm going out there and predicting 2<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">022 is the year of:</span>

- 'country mtb', the evolution of 'gravel' and 'bikepacking' to the bikes and rides we all used to do in the 1980-1990's around hills,fields and woods.

- utility bikes become fashionable and the next N+1

- hardtail renaissance, related a lot to cost of bikes and the above countryside biking.

- colours will be more earthy and naturistic.

- Enduro and DH continue to grow as spectator sports.

From now on trail bikes are going to have as much travel as possible so long as the overall genuine on-trail weight doesn’t stray too far over 16kg. The 30lb barrier has been consigned to the past. Good riddance. Well-designed 16kg trail bikes are much nicer places to be for big days out than anything else.

What utter garbage, really really really.
16kg for a big day out.... what have you been smoking?

The gravel massive will transition onto balance bikes, to make it even more difficult for themselves, making your local rugby pitch moar fun to lap round, while maintaining a vice like grip around the neck of the morally bereft heretics who dare to have suspension and sensible bars.

Stack height....totally agree.

– utility bikes become fashionable and the next N+1

I love the idea of a utility bike, my trailer on my commuter kinda works, but I'd like to try a proper one.

There's a guy locally I see with an old Peugeot, triple clamp forks and a big plastic box fixed to the bars, must be horrendous loaded!.

Personally, I'd like to see N+1 in the sea, a waste of money and resources.

Benji, stack height. you're right.

The DH, Enduro and XC race scenes will die as event organisers realise they can make 10x the money with 1/10th of the effort by organising gravel "events". Slap up a few signs, give 1000 people a gpx, pay a few marshals, charge £60 a head...........

Spot on with stack height.
Why should the rider of an XL bike have to be more bent over than the rider on a medium?

ok i wood like to see back some good hardtails from bc likes of chromag and covebikes back and much more xc raceing in south wales and more some help with trail building in afan and afan bike shed is haveing a new building at last.

Judging by the amount of early interest in the Cairngorms Loop ITTs for 2022, I don't think those types of events have peaked yet. I guess they remain possible under all but the severest Covid restrictions so are an easy bet for folk wanting an "organised" event.

Bike choice for 2022 will still be limited. I'd like to see more folk improving their bike maintenance skills in order to keep their kit running longer. Not sure this will happen though so more wishful thinking than prediction (as per Marks).

We've had the predicted death of XC for more than 20 years now - with the younger riders to lead the way (Lecomte, Richards, Pidcock, VDP, etc) I think those of us who do like XC will be more hoping for a resurgence.....
I'll actually predict that BMX could also increase after the olympics - perhaps BC will now realise that supporting grassroots should be a given (although we've been asking for that for over 20 years as well....)

26"/29" oval wheels to really make the trails come alive!

Agree with more lightweight ebikes, it's a big gap in the market for only 3 manufacturers to fill.

And I do hope that short seat tubes and 200mm droppers become standard, after riding with a 200mm dropper on my hardtail I've realised I need a 200mm on my FS too.

A 200mm reverb AXS would be nice too. Maybe?

It's all very well a Spring Chicken like Chipps saying never mind there's always next year . If like me you are now drawing your State Pension and your Lake Garda trip has been snatched away for 2 years plus you begin to wonder if there will be a next year 😔😔😔😔

Thanks for the backhanded compliment, @oldfart 🙂
I think what I'm trying to get at is that, whereas I would worry about not getting to every single event and weekend away I could, now I'm happy to have fewer, bigger impact events - and I won't beat myself up about the ones I miss.

Chipps yeah I hear you now I've got your attention though how about another ride out for a magazine article it's been too long since that Quantocks Mendips washout weekend .I suggest my annual Seaside Shuffle Summer time day out at the seaside ( obviously 🙄) Location Charlie Hobbs old stomping ground of the Purbecks ( ask him about the Square and Compass and Frank's Tank 😎) It's not Lake Garda but my imagination is pretty good .

more stack = yep deffo!

Is this predictions or hopes?
I hope there’s a resurgence of 26” wheels (non chuffin boost) and triple 8 or 9 speed gearing again. My reasoning is that if I pop my clogs in the next 20 years (highly likely) my daughters will be able to retire by selling my secret stash!
Predictions?

The bike industry will start pushing a different category of bicycle as the next “must have”. Maybe the cargo bike that has been around for years from all sorts of companies will finally get trendy with gravel versions available for carrying the kitchen sink?

The finances of a lot of people will get squeezed and they’ll start questioning the extremely fast wear rate of 1X (and the extremely high cost) and perhaps revert to 2X or 3X. (See point 1 above)

Pressfit bottom brackets finally abandoned! (Another hope).

I'm with the generalist on big days out, lighter is better. If the prediction was around 13kg that would have been more realistic for an all day hard-tail.

I wouldn't agree that's garbage. My bike is about 16kg and it's fine on big days out (regular rides in the Dales, Lakes for example). Sometimes I wish it was a bit lighter for sure, but personally I prioritise robustness over weight.

It'd very much depend on your definition of big, and also how quick you want to get round, but a 16kg bike is definitely not going to prevent you from enjoying a big ride out. To each his own I suppose.

I’m with the generalist on big days out, lighter is better. If the prediction was around 13kg that would have been more realistic for an all day hard-tail.

For a hardtail, maybe. But this is referring to FS trail bikes.

What utter garbage, really really really.
16kg for a big day out…. what have you been smoking?

Under 16kg is a realistic limit, 13kg is xc race whippet territory (ok, maybe 120mm downcountry) sorry... No.

Both my bikes are around 15.5kg with pedals, one carbon framed 150/160mm trail bike with carbon wheels, bars, coil shock, 37mm forks, trail tyres with inserts. The hardtail is the same just with a gearbox and a titanium frame.

Even after 5 days, 90 miles and 13k ft of climbing I was never wishing my bike was 2kg lighter.

On a long day, hell multiple long days, give me a coil shock, 150/160mm travel trail bike with big tyres and inserts over a 120mm XC bike EVERY day.

The finances of a lot of people will get squeezed and they’ll start questioning the extremely fast wear rate of 1X (and the extremely high cos)

I agree that 1X is relatively expensive but does it wear faster? I moved over to it somewhat reluctantly but it does have its advantages and the chains seem to wear quite slowly. I actually prefer it now.

I wouldn’t agree that’s garbage. My bike is about 16kg and it’s fine on big days out (regular rides in the Dales, Lakes for example). Sometimes I wish it was a bit lighter for sure, but personally I prioritise robustness over weight.

OK, fair play. You must be much fitter than me ( not hard). Personally speaking I find it hard enough lugging my Occam anything north of 50km or ~1600m. I'd really not be keen on another 2.5kg on top.

( just realised my Occam with big tyres and an insert IS probably knocking on 14.5 kg in mountain mode) Still wouldn't want another 1.5kg if I could help it

@gowerboy My contribution was a bit tongue in cheek in the spirit of the season, however, I don’t like the extreme angle between the chain ring and 1 or 12 and the grinding noises in those gears, the fact that the chain often drops down a couple of cogs when doing a back pedal in 1 or 2 for obstacles. The thick/thin chainring is essentially a friction device to stop the chain dropping off, and the cost of the parts! Yes it’s a simpler system and enables frame designers more freedom but why does everything cost SO much more?
If you think I’m being objective then refer to my first paragraph - I’m trying to protect my daughter’s inheritance! I’d do a smiley emoji if I knew how, don’t take me too seriously!

@wheelsonfire1 sorry, I did get the tongue in cheek bit and then started thinking about the wear thing… 😉

Yes, I do wonder about chainline and stuff too. I’m relatively new to 1x after being sceptical for ages.

@thegeneralist Ah, I think that's possibly the difference then - your definition of big is bigger than mine! My two biggest rides last year were a Fairfield / Birkside / Grizedale Beck combo at 30km & 1750m, and the Torridon lollipop at 40km & 1300m ish, both with plenty of hike a bike. Both full days out and I had no inclination to do any more at the end of either.

Ah, my prediction is coming true already, @gowerboy has doubts about 1X and is thinking of investing in 8 & 9 speed double and triple again (or 10 speed at a push)!
Anyone else with predictions, or hopes?

Ah, I think that’s possibly the difference then – your definition of big is bigger than mine! My two biggest rides last year were a Fairfield / Birkside / Grizedale Beck combo at 30km & 1750m, and the Torridon lollipop at 40km & 1300m ish, both with plenty of hike a bike. Both full days out and I had no inclination to do any more at the end of either.

My definition of a big day might be only 20 or 30k, but 1000m or more vertical - and full of lakes or Scottish mountain 'ruggedness'.

I'm assuming @thegeneralist version of a big day has more miles and climbing but less teeth loosening rocks where 150mm of travel is really needed on day 5 of 5. 😁

Personally speaking I find it hard enough lugging my Occam anything north of 50km or ~1600m. I’d really not be keen on another 2.5kg on top.

( just realised my Occam with big tyres and an insert IS probably knocking on 14.5 kg in mountain mode) Still wouldn’t want another 1.5kg if I could help it

Yeah, My Occam is 13.6kg ready to roll. On a "big" day out I'd likely be carrying food, spare clothing and even shelter. That starts adding up so there's no need to start with a heavier than required bike.

Goodness me! This is supposed to be a fun New Year predictions thread not what Mark Cavendish would call - “dick swinging!” My big day is bigger than your big day.. come on fellas, I’m assuming you’re fellas? Just enjoy your riding whilst you can!

14kg Bronson, carted it on WHW in a day, was brilliant apart from *that* section. It's bloody comfy to pedal all day, no doubt I'd be quicker on a light XC HT, but my hoop would be in bits.

Each to their own.

Edit- its no dick swinging, I've hardly rode much at all in the last couple of years!

No swinging of anything here, just really saying that a kg or 2 off my bike probably wouldn't make much difference over a day and I'd rather have the extra comfort an extra 30mm of travel gives you.

I'm suspecting the ever increasing travel of bikes will continue and 'trail' will cover 29er 160mm bikes, which would have been enduro bikes a couple of years back.

Enduro will be 180mm as standard.

Ah, my prediction is coming true already, @gowerboy has doubts about 1X and is thinking of investing in 8 & 9 speed double and triple again (or 10 speed at a push)!
Anyone else with predictions, or hopes?

Yeh. Anyone want to buy some Eagle stuff?

Happy New Year to you both, enjoy riding and the lovely scenery, a prediction that will come true!

ta11pau1
Full Member

And I do hope that short seat tubes and 200mm droppers become standard, after riding with a 200mm dropper on my hardtail I’ve realised I need a 200mm on my FS too.

Nah, I don't want to have to lose 10mm.

Happy New Year to you all, enjoy riding and the lovely scenery, a prediction that will come true!
This was an edit to the above, too slow like my riding!

Forecasting is a mugs game, but I reckon 22' will see more "utility" bikes, based on MTBs.

More people will be trundling about to shops and pubs by bicycle this spring/summer (many on the bikes they purchased last summer).
MTBs make excellent "utility bikes" once you shove a pannier on the back.

So that is my prediction, more shopping bikes, which is probably what the world actually needs...

The XC bubble is going to burst

I don’t think it will whilst it remains the sole MTB Olympic event, plus with Evie Richards coming to the fore last season, I’m quite excited about the season ahead. I do wish DH would become an Olympic event though (alongside gravel riding on balance bikes with oval wheels 🙂).

I’m assuming @thegeneralist version of a big day has more miles and climbing but less teeth loosening rocks where 150mm of travel is really needed on day 5 of 5. 😁

Bit of both really. Yes the 100km+ rides were pretty flat comparatively, but I'd suggest the following have their fair share of dick swinging teeth loosening rocks requiring long travel:

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Semi Walna Scar to Torver. Back to Coniston. Up the Old Man then Swirl How & West Side Edge to Little Langdale. Bits and pieces back to Coniston.

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Supposedly the top 10 descents in the Peak: Cavedale, Derwent Edge, Blackamoor, Stanage plantation, the Beast, Toboggan Run, Potato Alley, Rowarth, Hollins Cross

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You're right that the Back of Skiddaw and Mungrisdale don't have much rocks, but I feel that the addition of Glenderatera then Skiddaw followed by Ullock Pike rescues it somewhat?

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OK, so a ride that starts at quarter to six in the evening could never be described as a big day out, but 53km & 1600m including Jacobs Ladder, Hollins Cross, Edale Skyline, Roman Road, Winn Hill cheeky, Derwent Edge. Actually you're right that wasn't particularly rocky for 🤔its length.

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Morrone at Ballater is a fairly rocky ride. And if you then add on 5 Munros with a finale from the summit of Sagairt Mor to Loch Callater then I do feel it belongs in the rocky category.

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Lakes 4 passes. OK it's not long, but I still put it in the big day out category as it has one or two rocky sections.

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Likewise Lakes 3 passes. If you replace the rubbish Gatesgarth descent with a nip over Harter Fell then I reckon it just fits in the rocky gnarr category. And if you add in a few diversions in Kentmere then it becomes a full day out 😉

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Whaddabout Helvellyn? Fair enough the Sticks pass descent is a bit blown out, but if you then ascend all the way back up Keppel and then descend Birkside, Shirley that fulfils the rocky criteria.

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Cairngorm doesn't make it onto the list cause it's such a short ride, but I reckon 5 pinch flats in 2km suggests it's quite lumpy. That or my family need to learn how to ride bloody bikes.:-)

I like long rides. I really like long rocky rides, but they tend to be restricted by how far I can go ( as do yours). The weight of the bike plays a huge part in that and this idea that 16kg monstrosities will become the norm is worrying, as they suck the joy out of anything bar downhill, restrict the distance you can go and everyone will end up on a bloody ebike as a consequence 🙂

Where are you riding that gives you such a lot more rocks per km Ta11pau1?

I want to move there.

Very similar rides to you actually, I've done quite a few of the same rides in the lakes and peaks, not so much in Scotland but it's on the list.

Anyway, to get off this tangent - I don't think an upper limit of 16kg ready to ride on a long travel trail bike is bad personally, you obviously prefer a lighter sightly shorter travel bike for the similar rides. A stronger, fitter version of me might well prefer something lighter with less travel but in my current state I'll take a bit extra comfort over losing a kg or 2 (my backpack must be several kg on a big day anyway!!). 🙂

Choice is a great thing!

I read the "16kg" thing as being a rule-of-thumb upper limit for actual trailside bike weight (i.e with pedals, tools, water bottle, etc).

And that really in the context of not stressing overly about bike weight. Bikes have become bigger, wheels are bigger, suspension has become bigger, decent tyres weigh a bit. It's not that much of a bother, and probably for a lot of people something a bit bigger and tougher is going to give a better day out than something built with too much of an eye on the scales.

Of course, it's different strokes for different folks in the end, and if you prefer a lighter bike for what you ride then that's grand. But I don't think a 16kg upper limit is unreasonable 🤷‍♂️