[Closed] Wiggins for Le Tour....?

he's already some bookies' favourites!

IMO I'd be disappointed if he doesn't make it to the podium

EDit: unfortunately I think if he does he'll do it in a fairly unadventurous boring way of smashing the TTs and then hanging on, rather than attacking riding.

It's definitely possible. there are a number of factors to consider though:

How will Sky support Wiggins and Cav?

Is Wiggins peaking too early? 5 weeks till the business end of the tour, thats a long time to keep your peak

Wiggins inability to respond to attacks in the high mountains, surely the Schlecks and Evans will be trying to break him here?

The Schlecks form, is it all a massive bluff, or are they really that bad this year?

In his favour, the tour this year could well be won on the TTs, so it seems to be his perfect chance...

Be great if he's there or there abouts - it'll make it even more exciting than usual.

For a long time I've been a Wiggins doubter but looking at his form and the competition this year I've jumped on the band waggon.

He's a genuine favourite. Podium at least and this year is his best shot.

I'm so unsure. His climbing is good and he's capable of holding on or in there at least in the mountains....

I'd love to see Team Sky commence domination...

How will Sky support Wiggins and Cav?

Brailsford was saying how these two things aren't mutually exclusive: Wiggo can be part of the train without killing himself and needs to finish in the bunch at sprint finishes to keep himself in the mix. Cav can do some time at the front on the flat bits before the climbs on lumpy stages. There will be some very tired domestiques at the end but look how strong they've been in the dauphine,etc.

I would also not be surprised if Cav goes for early stage wins but doesn't go all the way to Paris, so he can recover and focus on the Olympic gold medal.

Why does everyone think he has peaked now? He said everything was geared for the tour and this was just part of that training /plan. If he had lost we would all be saying worse than last year so what can he do?

Cav may make some issues but I suspect this year they will leave him to it to support Wiggo and he will focus on the Olympics.

If he stays fit he will be top three for sure. i dont think the others can drop him on the climbs and he will beat them on the TT

Interesting that cuddles will need to attack on the hills unlike last year that should be fun to see.
I expect a closish race but if he avoids injury and loosing time due to accidents etc then he has a very , very good chance

I'm not so sure it's about wiggins peaking - lots of the sky team looked superb; can they [b]all[/b] get better/maintain ?

(but, yes, he's looking like a favourite)

I agree with junk, think he's not easily dropped on the climbs in shorter stage races but the brutality of Le Tour is a different animal.

I agree with junk, think he's not easily dropped on the climbs in shorter stage races but the brutality of Le Tour is a different animal.

Don't forget he's already finished 4th in the TdF - remember the Ventoux finish where he limited his loss? And he's in better shape now than he was then.

I think he knew that and that is what he has focused on in training- we dont now where he was last year but he did ok in Vuleta and they are far worse climbs than TdF
Whether tge training has worked only time will tell
I just hope he does not get injured and i dream of world road, olympic road and TdF all being British, imagine any of that 20 years ago.

Junk, exactly... Brailsford and the regime deserve a knighthood...

But also he rode for a team that works without ego. One big advantage Garmin have is they ride for whoever is best placed, they don't ride for the star. So Wiggins entered that tour being a possibility and they rode like crazy to give him the chance. Same with Ryder this year. Can Sky do that if they have a few people trying to keep their sprinter going?

it really like Garmin and, at the time, it was a shame to see wiggo leave for sky. however, sky are looking awesome at the moment, I hope they dont fall apart for the tour, im expecting big things 🙂

Fran and Mandy Schleck can't timetrial and this years has ~100km of solo TT. So thats the sisters out. Evans been in attacking spirit in dauphine but Sky poss better suited to supporting Wiggins than BMC is Evans?

He seems to have learned not to be on the wrong side of every peleton split which cost him severely-he might have managed his losses on Ventoux but for several other finishes he lost vital seconds for the sake of a couple of metres (didnt a magazine calculate would have beaten Armstrong for 3rd but for the splits?).

All ignorant armchair expertise, I only bought a road bike last year 😆

i think this year he has a very good chance, I do wonder if he has peaked early, I think sky will ride for Wiggins and Cav will be left to fend for himself a little, On the Cav thing not sure how is playing the olympic road race/ tour will he finish etc. I don't see the Schlecks doing much too many TT's this year.

But in three weeks anything can happen, a crash at the wrong time and it is all over.

@Junkyard, if he hadn't won the Dauphine wouldn't have bothered me, just a case of how fast he was going in relation to the competition. How much time did he take out of Evans in the TT, is Evans behind schedule or Wiggins in front?

he has an excellent team and is clearly fit.. but we've not really seen anything particularly spectacular.. which imo you need for a tour win. then again he hasn't needed to, and being a tt beast helps. seems in with a good chance but i don't think evans for one will make it easy. he looked pretty good in the dauphine too

Sorry should have said that was what wiggo said when he was in yellow at his first interview.

Asked by reporters if he had found form too early with the Tour de France still four weeks away, Wiggins said: "I can never win whatever I do.
"If I didn't take the jersey or perform here then I'm the biggest piece of rubbish out there but if I win here I've peaked too soon."

Interesting that cuddles will need to attack on the hills unlike last year that should be fun to see.

Do you think he can? I'm struggling to remember examples of cuddles attacking on a climb. Plus I think Sky are going to use US Postal/Discovery Channel tactics and ride every climb so fast its impossible for anyone of any consequence for the GC to make a break.

I'm going to be in Paris for the finish and I really hope I'm going to be cheering him across the finish line with him in yellow.

I really hope he does it, I'm in Paris for the final stage and it would be great to see an English rider win. Heard a rumour that Cav was potentially not riding the tour in order to prepare for Olympics. Considering he rode the whole Giro and wouldn't have a team built around him for the tour it could be believable.

I really don't think that a rider with Wiggins' experience in pursuiting and time trialing that he'll have got his programme wring and peaked too early.

I mean it's not like he spent years training to peak for team and individual pursuits is it

Are all the guys who rode with Wiggo in the Dauphine in the TDF team? If not then the Colombian duo who rode the Giro were on top form, seems Team Sky have plenty of depth and scope to choose from, also the flat stages where Cav has the opportunities will look after themselves as the team will be riding on or near the front to look after Wiggo anyway.

If he survives the chaos of the first week, i'll be on the edge of my seat for 3 weeks

Is Wiggins peaking too early? 5 weeks till the business end of the tour, thats a long time to keep your peak

Check your Tour history - Indurain won the Dauphine in 1995 & 1996: in 1995 he won the Tour & in 1996 won Olympic Gold & World champs for TT.

Armstrong in 2002 & 2003 won the Dauphine & the Tour.

What is striking is that Wiggins' probable method of smashing the TT and hanging on elsewhere will be very similar to both of the above (& perhaps more multiple winners). It doesn't have or need to be "sexy" to be succesful.

Think he can get in the mix, but also think Evans will be a big favourite to win. Course more in his favour than last year, and having that first win under the belt will be a massive psychological advantage.

Evans has always been "supported" by a spectacularly inept team. It's only now that he's got a team basically built for him that allows him to do what the other GC contenders can. At Lotto the management had no interest in the tour as they're a classics team so he rode all the big mountains on his own. He couldn't defend all the attacks.
And anyway he's a former mtb world cup winner - surely your love of all things phone tapping hasn't blinded you to the Murdoch team's shortfalls in many things except cash?

mildred, yes it has been done recently, but only by two of the best riders in modern history, you can't compare Wiggins to either of them. Agree about big mig hanging on in the mountains, but Armstrong, really? I think you need to check your history 😉

Of other interest is who Sky choose to use as the decoy to draw out Cuddles and Frandy.

Froome looks on imperious form at the moment, and Eddie B-H can do a Hushovd and go off on one as well.

Looking at the GC of this, Sky could send off Rogers, Froome, Porte and more and the peloton would almost [i]have[/i] to chase them down.

Nice.

Yes, but remember what happened the last time that sky drove the peloton in the mountains - they dropped their GC rider. That one day lost them Bradley on the podium.

I'm sure I read some article about how they were working out the power requirements to win various stages and the tour and plotting wiggins training against this to make sure the two curves overlap. It was really interesting.
Anyone remember the article or was I dreaming?

Indurain never won more than two stages in any of his Tour titles, and he never won a mountain stage during his five titles. But after his initial race title, Indurain’s overall margin of victory was never less than 4 1/2 minutes.

I dont expect him to win mountain stages but I dont expect him to be dropped either.

Good summary there, Junkster.

He's been working at it, hard. Brailsford and his boffins have also been working at their "minimal gains" all of which will help to add up.

As above, Wiggy won't win any of the big mountain stages, but he should be able to mark the other GC contenders well. The fact that the first TT comes just before the first proper alpine stage may also help. If he can get time on the others, they'll be forced in to an attack.

I'm hoping he does really well. I don't think he's peaking too early.

I mean I've been training for a Paris to Blackpool ride and I've been doing really well but I expect to do better on the actual ride.

Someone should pass that onto Wiggins so he can take heart and know that he can also get better if he works really hard.

Pretty sure he follows your blog

😆 @ Junky!

He never looked uncomfortable during the Dauphine, all the stats ate really fascinating cannot wait for the tdf to start. So who are the main GC contenders other than Cadel?

So who are the main GC contenders other than Cadel?

Cuddles has to be considered, as does Wiggins. Beyond that? Well, it's pretty open.

Keep an eye on Tejay Van Garderen and Ryder Hesjedal as outside bets though. If they get a good roll on, it could be interesting.

I have to admit I couldn't see him winning it a few months ago but after his performances in the week long stage races this year then he's got to be co-favourite with Evans. Fingers-crossed he doesn't fall off this time...

Evans grinds it out in the big mountains the same as Wiggins, neither seem to have a big attack in them.

Providing the Schlecks aren't sandbagging, and accidents/injuries aside, it can only be between Evans and Wiggins, and on most days Wiggins is better in a TT.

Looking forward to seeing them both in the Pyrenees.

i hope bradley does it, don't care how, just prove its possible for a brit to win the thing, he can attack like mad next year defending and become a legend etc... but win it first.

So who are the main GC contenders other than Cadel?

As always, the betting odds gives a fair guide (though there has to be a certain amount of British bias here - Wiggins being shorter odds than he should be)
http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/winner

I wanted to like the Schlecks really I did.
It's almost like they wanted someone to just give them first place...oh wait a minute...

As always, the betting odds gives a fair guide

That has to be the weakest list of favorites for a long time.

It's now or never Brad.

http://cyclismas.com/2012/04/schleckchute-fails-to-deploy-andy-forced-to-finish-race/

At Lotto the management had no interest in the tour as they're a classics team so he rode all the big mountains on his own. He couldn't defend all the attacks.

Charlie W would disagree with that

After recent tour i'm unsure if Cadel can do it. He had practically no team around him for most of it, in fact if he had a sky jersey on you would think he was part of the team. He seemed to be struggling on alot of the climbs as well. Wiggo looked smooth, bridging gaps with ease at times. The only thing he misses is that instant accleration of contador or schleck.

I wouldn't write of the Schlecks either, the tour seems to be made for them. Think Andy will produce the goods.

Think this could be the best tour ever though, liquidgas/cannondale pre tour have been dominating alot, sky looks amazing, radioshak/trek have some awesome characters, euskatel riders are good climbers, saxobank haven't produced anything but have the ability to do so and omega have some potntial stage winners and obv BMC. ALot of strong teams this year

RSNT with Fran & Mandy have kept well under the radar and will surprise a lot of people at the Tour. my money is on Mandy. ( I just hope he doesn't start crying about having to go down hill again ) 😀

Very much a fan of the nickname 'Abandy Schleck' as coined by Blazin' Saddles on Twitter.

With so much tt i thought more tour built for wiggins since schleck cant tt

As for them attacking in mtns we saw the devistation caused by them doing that last year . 99% of it to leopard trek !

liquidgas/cannondale pre tour have been dominating alot

Burned themselves up in the Giro though. Drove the pace but didn't have anything left for the GC so unless they change their tactics I don't see them as a GC threat.

I think this year it's unlikely RSNT will have a GC contender. If they're lucky, a podium finish but the guess is top 10 with a top 5 an outside chance. My guess though is that to silence the critics somewhat they'll rip everyones legs off on some of the mountain stages to recoup some TT losses. As Contador is signed to Saxobank again, it seems unlikely that Frank and Andy will go elsewhere next year so they need to do something for the sponsors.

Frank looked strong in yesterdays Tour de suisse, will be interesting to see how he comes on this week. could be a real threat this year.

Just hope Wiggo can keep himself upright this year.

Interesting comment from Tony Martin about the domestiques at Sky being capable of being captains in other teams. You'd have to wonder then whether this HAS to be the year. With the new Swiss team next year and Saxo needing points, surely Sky might struggle to keep key members of staff in place

I don't follow it closely enough that I can pretend to know who's in with a shout, but [url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/may/23/bradley-wiggins-tour-de-france ]this Grauniad article about Wiggins training in Tenerife is interesting.[/url]

if you want to get wound up about wiggo and his form.. Go read [url= http://www.bikeradar.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=40002&t=12858716 ]this thread[/url]

Frank looked strong in yesterdays Tour de suisse, will be interesting to see how he comes on this week. could be a real threat this year.

Except he's even worse in a TT than his brother (44th in the opening TT, losing 36s over 7.3km to somebody who's nowhere near as good as Wiggo). For those who haven't noticed, Andy is out. It should be between Wiggo, Evans and maybe somebody else you've not really heard of before - I don't think any other "big" names will really be contenders.

I have had a road bike for well over a year now so obviously know everything about road racing and the classics and I do believe he can do this. I can almost feel the momentum building from the office here in Manchester!

Providing he doesn't fall off and hurt himself......

Even money on my betting account now Schlek has quit, Is he really that strong now? will not be getting any of my hard eaened coin bet on him at that price,anything can happen in a race of that length.

Wel wel well...... It's not over till the fat lady sings of course...............

And now it's done...... Well done wiggo, truly brilliant result for British cycling.....