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I guess this type of thread crops up periodically (I think normally in December when STW runs its predictions) but buying and selling various bike bits lately (and the soul thread yesterday) made me think about how standards have changed/improved over the years. I'm struggling to think of what will come next to render my bike of today obsolete for upgrades in 5 years. So my question is what is going to come next?
Ground rules:
- I think (and surely most would agree) that changes are largely for the better. I know lots think it's a cynical conspiracy to get more money off the paying public but lets not air that here!
- E-bikes will be a growing part of the future, no arguments about whether that's a good thing or not.
- Minimise chuntering about regressive steps (things like gravel is just 90's XC etc...).
My bet is 2x gear systems will come back - sold on the basis of bigger range with fewer gaps
haha sorry TJ my edit was not aimed at you, I'll allow that. My intent was to deter too much cyncism but that was a valid submission 🙂
I think there will another attempt to replace saddle rails for something incompatible with current model and probably some new standards for BBs, brake attachments and axles.
My bet is 2x gear systems will come back – sold on the basis of bigger range with fewer gaps
1x allows vastly more leeway in terms of tyre clearance and suspension adjustment. Putting a front mech on there ties you into having a tube in a certain place above the chainset to mount the front mech on and that really interferes with pivots and big tyres.
You might get an enterprising marketing type sell 1x chainsets with 2 or more rings for "the ultimate in trail set-up customisation" or some such bollocks but it'd still be a job you'd do at home to swap a chainring.
I wonder if wireless / fly by wire brakes would ever be a thing? No more bleeding hoses and having messy hose routing out the front. It works with gears but I imagine there'd be a lot of safety concerns to overcome without a physical connection between lever and caliper!
I wonder if this Shimano gearbox will come to fruition? That might push them from niche to mainstream (maybe because I'd really like one)
Obviously more ebikes, maybe lower power ones that just give a little boost to help you ride further.
Something I've been banging on about for ages is integrated, adjustable suspension. Maybe triggered by a dropper lever. When the seat is down then downhill mode, fully up is climbing mode, mid is pedaling but active. It can adjust the damping and even the geometry to suit. Not that hard with current tech.
Different chain pitch - the standard 1/2” chain has been around forever and is pretty much the only thing (apart from its width) that hasnt been messed about with. Its about time SRAM introduced a smaller pitch standard.
1x allows vastly more leeway in terms of tyre clearance and suspension adjustment. Putting a front mech on there....
Maybe a 2x with a simple hub gear. Still 1x at the front but a simple change from high to low in the rear hub.
Front mechs are never coming back, for starters there's nowhere to put them!
More electronics. Shocks with built in telemetry that talk to an app, SRAM seem to have the market cornered here with shockwiz, tyrewiz, and AXS. They just need to build shockwiz into the shocks/forks.
More gearbox bikes, and e-bikes with gearboxes. I'm surprised there's not more, but I can see Shimano/Bosch coming out with a gearbox motor, given the rapidly reducing e-bike motor size.
More and more silent hubs - I love the buzz of a freehub, but a silent hub is also nice.
I'll throw mine in that I think I've said before. I'd like to see an integrated mudguard mounting standard, I think it's starting to come in for certain forks but it would be good to have it on frames as well. Not exactly a groundbreaking change though I suppose.
I don't think 2x will ever come back to off road full suss in any manufacturers catalogue. But may reappear in commuting of hybrids. Doubt it though. Front mech is a thing of the past.
E-bikes will take over the world though (it's already starting to happen as commuters and utility bikers realise the benefits) . I don't think non assisted bikes will ever go away, but they will become ever more niche.
electronic remote shifting to be the next big trickle down. couple of years it'll be sub £1000, and couple years after that some one (Microshift or Box or new player) will do a wireless 12 speed for £500.
More electronics as said, run off the battery, when they're all e bikes.
It's the future.
Fixed. Its the future, I've tasted it.
More gearbox bikes, and e-bikes with gearboxes. I’m surprised there’s not more
I wonder just how much more expensive at manufacturing price points a gearbox over a mech actually is? I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's close to the unit profit point (built bike). Other wise it would've happened already.
I think the approach to pricing and accessibility of the sport will change, especially as emtb becomes more and more mainstream. I can see more non-E bikes being sold with great kit and geometry at the lower end; there does seem to be a much greater embracing of cheaper brands as good bikes over recent years (Vitus, Bird etc).
More expensive bikes could easily schism into either Emtbs for many users, or "race bikes" for those who compete/would like to, with the resulting smaller range of choice for the latter. There will always be niches and small manufacturers though.
Oh yeah, forgot...Flat mount brakes will be the new standard, Give it 3-5 years tops
My bet would be that a gearbox and motor would have the same attachment, and so (battery mount aside), one frame could do both and significantly the development cost.
....then gearboxes will come in
regenerative breaking for ebikes
I think geometry will eventually start to be stable more or less around current Norco Sight, Enduro or Privateer 161 levels.
Gearboxes almost certainly. We know Shimano has something in their sleeves and Nicolai was hinting something relevant on the Pinkbike interview.
Like said above, more electronic stuff
The weight theme might also start to be shown as relevant again. I might be wrong, but I think I'm seeing weight to slowly creep into some press releases lately.
My bet would be that a gearbox and motor would have the same attachment, and so (battery mount aside), one frame could do both and significantly the development cost.
….then gearboxes will come in
Definitely this!
And more electronic gear shifting at lower price points.
For E-bikes a g-box, maybe. But for normal bikes the weight is an issue. You need a new frame design which will only work with the g-box. That means the manufacture is tied to it being a success. So a big commitment from the mainstream players.
Marketing would have to force it as an improvement, its not like we are all asking for it now. Some are, but most are not.
Developement tends to be driven by need with marketing spin added to it.
I reckon we need more reliability in the stuff we already have (droppers being one). Over the last 35 yrs Ive been riding, really only discs brakes, droppers, suspension have been game changers. Once they appeared they just got better each year. Other changes like geometery, wheel size have improved riding, not changed it. But generally stuff has just got better and more reliable.
I just see incremental improvements, not ground changing stuff. Its still a bike powered by the rider.
Makes perfect sense for someone to build a combined ebike motor and gearbox, some motors are/were already disconnected between chainring and cranks already, gearboxes tend to be sealed for life with just an oil change required every couple of years. There's no reason for the output cog (aka chainring) to be on the crankset, they could make a seperate output shaft.
Is the e-bike motor mount a standard yet? If not, that'll come in so you can buy an e-frame and choose a motor and/or gearbox of your choice. With fully integrated batteries with universal connections. Maybe a big motor with a couple of gears for a self-uplift day, then swap it out for a lightweight motor + gearbox for a day of trail riding.
More high pivot trail bikes like the Forbidden Druid and Deviate Highlander.
Shimano to finally release a wireless groupset. I mean come on, they can't go wired electronic again, shurely?
I never understood why I-Beam didn't take off or get used for droppers. Great way of dropping a load of weight off the saddle/post system which you would have thought would be considered a useful saving given the weight of a dropper compared to a normal post.
Not convinced by the gearbox. Working gearboxes have been "a thing" now for 25-30 years...If they were ever going to make it, it would've happened by now. They're too heavy, too complex, too expensive, and too large.
I think we'll have more customised set up.
So for example you'll be asked for you weight when you buy a bike act the compression damping will then be set for you. You might even provide sample data from a previous ride act that will be part of the setup as well.
I think the Atherton style custom thing will be bigger as current frames are harder to fine tune with with stem length etc.
I think more things being triggered but the dropper button makes sense. Good call Nickjb
Do you think we'll see an ebike that is sort of modular. So you can drop out the motor and battery for up lift days
Integrated storage
I thought gearbox bikes had their day about 10 years ago. They mostly all then fizzled out. Are their still any belt drive bikes around. There was a time when they were going to be the future.ithink electronic shifting might be the next trial but I doubt it will be big news on mtb bikes. I think lightweight enduro bikes will be next.
I thought gearbox bikes had their day about 10 years ago. They mostly all then fizzled out
There's always been a few around, problem is they have a number of drawbacks, as nickc has said.
If a big player like SRAM or Shimano started developing one however, that would change things.
I think we’ll have more customised set up.
that’ll come in so you can buy an e-frame and choose a motor and/or gearbox of your choice
This sort of thing I really can't see. Long term I think you're looking at more catalogue choice, less customisation, more proprietary non user serviceable kit.
Sure there's a fair number of us who like to tinker, move parts across and upgrade things but when you look around that's not the way the world works. We're the classic car or valve radio enthusiasts.
Most people want to look at something, thinks "oh that's nice" buy it, use it for a few years (maybe pay someone else to maintain it) then buy a new one when they're bored.
Wheel sizes which suit a specific bike but not another? Why not? Outside of the enthusiast market most people don't care. Forks that only got one frame but look damn good? Sure.
We're getting there already with custom off sets and all sorts of things. Motors, batteries, gear boxes*, why make them interchangeable when you can just make them work instead?
Yeah people gripe that their Honda civic needs a different exhaust to their jazz but they don't actually care and buy them anyway.
On the other hand very few people buy cars or anything else with generic kit and long term I can't see bikes being any different.
Ingegrated droppers, roadies have ISPs so why dont MTB's? Could be as simple as standardizing the insertion depth and diameter so dropper posts no longer needed the lower portion to be structural, just a bit of thin carbon tube to hold the bushings and actuator in the right place.
Weight weenie ing is due a comeback in the mid range. Expensive bikes are still quite light but I think mid range stuff like SlX/NX which looks like the high end version but weighs a ton will need to change. XX1 is lighter than 2x, but SX certainly isnt!
I never understood why I-Beam didn’t take off or get used for droppers. Great way of dropping a load of weight off the saddle/post system which you would have thought would be considered a useful saving given the weight of a dropper compared to a normal post.
It was really stiff, thats what an actual I beam is for in construction! The saddle rails and body flex quite a lot, making the rails solid and mounting the saddle directly too them wasn't great.
I think Selle Italia came up with a variation that only attached front and back which was probably better, but was really exoensive and never caught on.
Twin disc set up on the front. Which will also bring in a new hub standard, something like Boost++, and a new fork design with 38/40mm forks
Lightness at a decent price point. Bikes are getting better but get much porkier.
If a big player like SRAM or Shimano started developing one however, that would change things.
I'm not sure it would, it'll only ever be a niche product unless they can get it down to the price of tourney or what ever non series stuff you see on a 300 bso.
You don't develop something like axs thinking "oh look what we can do for £1200" you do it thinking "in 10 years we'll have this down to £100".
If you can't see the end of the development at mass market it's not worth the trouble.
They might have a go but it'll be no different to hammerschmidt
Lightness at a decent price point. Bikes are getting better but get much porkier.
Thankfully we've come away from this thinking, and realised that weight isn't the big factor it used to be, there's much more to how good a bike rides than just weight. And people are also riding stuff a lot more regularly that requires a more robust bike.
@RustyNissanPrairie Different chain pitch - I think we'll see some moves on this if derailleur development continues along its current lines.
There's a point at which you can no longer squeeze in extra cogs on a cassette and have a reasonable chainline. One way would be smaller dimension chains.
Shimano had a go at this in the 1970s with 10mm pitch.
Fixed riders loved it, and these days if you have some 10mm chain in stock, they'll sell their granny to get their hands on it.
http://www.velo-pages.com/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=7098&g2_serialNumber=2
Maybe it's time for NanoDrive!
I don't see 2x drivetrains coming back. People theorised about jumps but I've not really noticed people complain in the real world.
The bike industry has proven it can't be trusted with press fit tolerances so threaded will be around for a good while longer.
Gearboxes possibly. I think the big difference is that I believe Shimano will still be chain driven rather than meshed.
Flat mount is possibly coming simply because there's nothing wrong with post mount.
Mullet bikes will come. Time will tell whether they stay.
Geometry may slow, maybe even come back a bit as people find they actually do more riding "along" than the media suggest we do. It's not all charging down with your balls on fire.
Geometry may slow, maybe even come back a bit as people find they actually do more riding “along” than the media suggest we do. It’s not all charging down with your balls on fire
That's why you need a down gravel bike too.
More smart app related bollox like: your bike will change gear automatically into the optimal gear to get a PB on a Strava segment & suspension that automatically adjusts to optimum for a section of trail based on previous runs.
Mainstream T47.
Flat mount is possibly coming simply because there’s nothing wrong with post mount.
Haha, hear you. I think it's it's coming because: why make two standards? Plus Shimano just released flat mount MTB brakes in all ranges (SLX- XTR) all at once, and roadies don't want post mount and it doesn't matter for MTB...
My bet is 2x gear systems will come back – sold on the basis of bigger range with fewer gaps
That was the first thing I thought of! I've seen 12 gears announced as the next big technical innovation twice in my life so far, so it doesn't seem impossible it might happen again...
There's a really good interview on Pinkbike with Kalle Nicolai. This bit sounds very much liek the future.
I want to give you a little bit of input on our new gearbox bike. Gearbox bikes in the past were pretty heavy, and the weight penalty and the penalty on efficiency always made it so that these bikes were not useful in every situation. We were always looking for the gearbox mountain bike that was able to beat the derailleur bike. You put the two bikes together, and our goal is to design a bike that is around one and a half pounds heavier [750g], but not more.
We are on our way. I won’t tell you the details yet, but we’re testing at the moment and we are quite happy with the results. We will launch it as soon as soon as we are ready.
Standardizing on metric sizes is the obvious thing to bring the sport into the 20th century. 25 mm chain pitch, 35 mm handlebars, steerers that taper from 40 mm to 30 mm, etc. Amazed that nobody's done this already.
thisisnotaspoon
Ingegrated droppers, roadies have ISPs so why dont MTB’s? Could be as simple as standardizing the insertion depth and diameter so dropper posts no longer needed the lower portion to be structural, just a bit of thin carbon tube to hold the bushings and actuator in the right place.
Been done: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/eightpins-ngs1-integrated-dropper-post-review.html