Riding the Tour de France for the sixteenth time, Sylvain Chavanel wanted to break away on stage 4 to pass by his city, Châtellerault, with the honours but he was assigned to work for Bryan Coquard instead. The sprinter from Direct Energie was close to beat Marcel Kittel for the stage victory in Limoges so the tactic paid off. Leadership can change for stage 5 as the terrain might be too hard for Coquard whereas Chavanel and fellow veteran Thomas Voeckler will be eager to break away from far out, maybe even before the first categorized climb of the day at Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat (km 16.5), the home of legendary champion Raymond Poulidor who celebrated his 80th birthday earlier this year. Five serious climbs will impact the finale, including the category 2 Puy Mary with 31km to go. Top climbers Federico Bahamontes, Lucien van Impe, Eduardo Chozas and Richard Virenque have crested that summit in first position in the past. However, GC contenders are expected to ride on a conservative mode before the Pyrenees while attackers like Dani Navarro, Cesare Benedetti, Stephen Cummings and Voeckler might have lost time on purpose on stage 4 to be allowed to hunt for victory on stage 5. Lars Bak also remembers the Puy Mary as the place where he successfully defended the yellow jersey of the 2005 Tour de l'Avenir the day when experts realized that stage winner Bradley Wiggins was also a climber. Shall the yellow jersey be in contention among the riders currently ranked in the top 3 overall, Julian Alaphilippe and Alejandro Valverde are expected to challenge Peter Sagan… but the terrain also suits the Slovakian!
[img] 
[/img]
And the contenders from your main man at Inrng:
The Contenders: want to win the stage and wear the yellow jersey? It’s up to several teams to eliminate Peter Sagan from the front group today on the climbs, if he’s not ditched on the Pas de Peyrol then the Col du Perthus can be used. The Slovak’s chances of a win today are low given the climbing but it’s up to his rivals to make the race hard enough to get rid of him otherwise if he makes the front group over the penultimate climb then he’ll be hard to beat.First among the contenders is Julian Alaphilippe. He’s almost a local, the stage is in his local Auvergne region, albeit in the opposite corner to his home. He can climb well as we’ve seen in races from the Critérium du Dauphiné to the Ardennes classics and he can match Peter Sagan for power in the uphill sprints. Etixx-Quickstep have the team to eject Sagan too, especially if Dan Martin gets to work although he’s a contender for the stage win too. The yellow jersey awaits.
Alejandro Valverde is a good pick and if anyone can beat Alaphilippe it’s Valverde as the Spaniard has regularly got the better in the Ardennes but he’s not the prime pick today because the finish isn’t so steep. Also do Movistar want him to win? Yes but it would mean having the yellow jersey which is nice but a burden given their superior ambitions. Jesus Herrada is another option for a sprint finish from a reduced group and Ion Izaguirre is in fine shape too, Movistar can afford to let one rider slip away and still protect Nairo Quintana.
Orica-BikeExchange have three options in Adam Yates, Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews but in order to increase their odds they may want to use up riders in order to thin the group, for example to get Gerrans working to ensure Sagan is dropped which could put Matthews in trouble too, it won’t be easy to control.
Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema are other punchy riders who don’t have much chance in sprint against the names cited above but could barge clear on the final climb and find the others hesitate as they’re not GC threats so allowing them to take a surprise win. Tony Gallopin has a shot at the win, he can climb well and sprints fast but as mentioned already this week can get nervous in the finish. Jarlinson Pantano found winning ways in the Tour de Suisse and sprints well, this suits him.
The local pick is Romain Bardet who grew up in Brioude, just a short spin away. He sprints faster than many think but wins are rare and he won’t get much room. He could try to force matters on the familiar descents but the Route Nationale section to Le Lioran won’t suit a lone rider who’s taken 20-30 seconds on the previous descent.
For breakaway picks it’s a lottery. Rafa? Majka is 17 minutes down but does he have the freedom to do what he wants or is he helping Sagan? Thomas Voeckler is well down on GC too but his exploits over these roads in 2011 represent a high point that, aged 37, he’s struggling to replicate. The winner that day ahead of Voeckler was L-L Sanchez and an outsider today. Otherwise Stephen Cummings, Thomas de Gendt and Jan Barta are among the obvious escape artists who pose no threat to the GC riders with Cummings having good jump to win
And a couple of pics from yesterday:
Tight.
[img] 
[/img]
Sagab and Poulidor
[img] 
[/img]
So is today a stage for whichever Yates it is who isnt banned or is he just going to try and follow everyone and aim for white jersey?
Going to be a very interesting day imo!
Sagan is capable of making it over those climbs in a reduced peloton, but there'll be teams with climbers that have a decent sprint a la Dan Martin that could possibly set a high enough pace to get rid of him. Movistar could want to keep a very high pace to prevent too many attacks on the climbs from Sky etc so Valverde could take it in the sprint if that were the case......even though they're only Cat 2 climbs, in the last few years, loads of damage has been done on seemingly lesser climbs early in the race!
Then throw into the mix breakaway riders like Chavanel, TV Tommy, Steve Cummings, EBH etc whom will all fancy a chance at taking the stage and yellow too!
So, heart says Cummings in a break away, unlikely but possible as he proved last year. But then if he can stay away, so can Sagan...
Head says they'll really push on the climbs and so you'll end up with a group of GC people at the end. This leads to the question of which GC guys will fancy a punchy, sprint finish? Froome has already contested 1 bunch sprint this tour and finished top 10, but let's ignore that. So, Dan Martin it is then. Done.
Dont think Froome will want yellow yet, he'll take time if he can but dont think they'll be trying to smash it up. Think too many will be too fresh for a big breakaway like Cummings.
Punchy climb you say?
Hows about Joaquim Rodríguez
I'll take up the stance of a former TdF thread creator - Sagan for the win today.
All the main GC contenders will be marking each other and keen not to put in too much effort at this early stage so a bunch finish.
Valverde possibly popping out at the death for the stage because he likes to show that although he is supposidly No 2 to Quintana, he actually still thinks he should be No 1.
Nibali to lose time sulking at the back over Aru.
I thought looking at those Cat 2 and 3s it might be a day for Daniel T to get the spotty jumper before it all goes horribly uphill.
Interesting looking descent from Col du Perthus (have a look on Google Maps). A good descender (Nibali or Pinot v2.0?) might benefit.
I won't get dragged into posting on every TDF thread, but today Sags will loose the Jersey and continue in Green, Bardet or Kelderman, Bardet actually FTW.
Daniel T is not a bad shout actually, if Dimension Data can have worn all 3 jerseys in the first week of the tour that would be a serious achievement.
won't get dragged into posting on every TDF thread, but
STW is not compulsory, I try and tell myself this every day 😉
Interesting stage, agreed with those above who say Froome amd other real GC contendors will look to postion themselves for a more material strike in Pyrenees. To me Froome looks strong and Sky managing the race perfectly so far.
It'll be an interesting day, but I also think the GC contenders will look to keep things safe for now and just mark each other. Can see a breakaway winner like Bardet doing it, but not sure GC teams would want Valverde gaining too much time.
Froome is looking comfortable and is doing exactly what he says he planned to do: stay out of trouble and conserve energy until it is needed.
Can't see past Sagan at the mo. Would be nice if Cummings could make a breakaway stick but I just want Sagan to win so we can have more interviews with him.
Would love to see Daniel Teklehaimenot in the spots, Dimension Data are probably my favourite team at the moment. They're doing really well for such a new outfit
Sagan and Nibbles not enjoying the climb.
Surprised they're taking it so aggresively today. GVA is on a good ride though, I'm wondering if the peloton have miscalculated this one a bit?
He's going to gain quite a bit of time, even though they're chasing hard. Certainly shaking things up with Sagan and Nibali struggling.
GVA in the pain locker by the look of it, 4KM to go, 6 minutes. He might get this you know.
And done!...now for the time gap to the GC pack
Romain fancies it
Or maybe not
Edit: double checked Froome/Quintana very much in touch 18 seconds back, Nibali 29
My prediction for Nibali was spot-on. It must be hard to ride up a mountain sucking your thumb. What a pratt.
The only time he wins anything is when everyone else of consequence has dropped out.