After yesterdays fireworks, we have a long and quite possible attritional day on relatively flat roads.
Chris Froome and his rivals have put the mountains behind them. Starting from Embrun, still in the Hautes-Alpes close to the col d'Izoard, they don't have any grueling climb on the menu anymore. It's the fifth time for Embrun to host a start – the equivalent of Lannemezan in the Pyrenees. Those cities haven't organized a finish yet. It's a long day on the saddle for the longest stage of the 104th Tour de France with 222.5km to cover. Eleven out of twenty-two teams haven't won a stage yet. For some of them, this is the only occasion remaining. It means a lot of riders will be motivated for going on the attack early. Small hills in the first part of stage 19 will favor a breakaway. It's not sure if any team has the resources to bring a breakaway back for a bunch sprint finish in the absence a several top sprinters. Sunweb surely has had enough success. It's the stage for Michael Matthews to mathematically secure the green jersey the day after his team-mate Warren Barguil did it for the polka dot jersey. Salon-de-Provence welcomes the attackers.
The Route: like Wordsworth’s journey down the Simplon there’s a sadness as the race turns its back on the Alps for another year. They start in Embrun, home to the majestic artificial lake and then take two proper climbs rather than the easier valley road, the first is 4.7km at 6% but with a steep section over 10% along the way. Then it’s via Sisteron, a regular on the route of Paris-Nice, and more rolling roads.The Col du Pointu, “Pointy Pass”, is listed as 5.8km at an unpointy 4.1% but it’s really a 10km uphill ride and if the average gradient is low it’s got some 7-8% bits on the way up where it’s 45km to the finish. There’s a reciprocal descent and is familiar from the 2016 Paris-Nice. It’s then around the Luberon and flat roads to the finish.
The Finish: a flat run through the town of Salon-de-Provence. The final kilometre has a criterium touch with two 90° left bends in the finish but they’re regular corners. Then there’s a 400m finishing straight that dips slightly before rising to the line and again it was the same finish as Paris-Nice in 2016 when Alexey Lutsensko won solo that day.
[img] 
[/img]
[img] 
[/img]
Sprint day, so the usual suspects then? Well, with Kittel, Cav and Sagan out, who are the usual suspects?
The Contenders: half the peloton will fancy its chances today. Let’s start with the sprinters because now Marcel Kittel is gone suddenly a lot of them and their teams will fancy their chances today but only if they can contain the race so the likes of André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal), Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto-Jumbo) and Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) are their team’s strongest cards to play with the first two often capable of getting over a climb like the Col du Pointu when others cannot. Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data) is more versatile and could go in a breakaway or wait for the sprint or perhaps his team mates go clear? The same for Michael Matthews (Team Sunweb) who could be beaten in the sprint by the names cited above but Sunweb could hatch a plan on the Col du Pointu to suit him.Many teams have not won a stage so far and it’s now or never given there’s tomorrow’s time trial and the Parisian sprint. So Bahrain-Merida, BMC Racing, Cofidis, Dimension Data, Fortuneo-Oscaro, Katusha-Alpecin, Movistar, Orica-Scott, UAE Emirates and Wanty-Groupe Gobert will try to flood the early breakaway, preferably with more than one rider to give them options and tactical cards to play. Other teams are bound to join in too. Given this it means the breakaway is going to be sizeable and therefore much harder to bring back. Who? Spin that wheel but three random names: Greg Van Avermaet and Stefan Küng (BMC Racing) and the versatile Dylan Van Baarle (Cannondale-Drapac)
The Alps, stunning as ever.
[img] 
[/img]
Froome gives it a nudge
[img] 
[/img]
The loneliness of the solo cyclist.
[img] 
[/img]
Kwaito, this man went deep yesterday, awesome ride.
[img] 
[/img]
The victor
[img] 
[/img]
Great work on these daily postings Lunge. Much appreciated.
I'm going to miss these when it's all done.
I hope Edvald Boasson Hagen gets it, he's come agonisingly close a couple of times.
I'm going to miss these when it's all done.
In an odd way, I'll miss doing them. Gives me an excuse to play around on bike based websites first think in the morning. It's now at a point where my (non-cycling) boss now asks what's going on in the Tour each day.
I'm punting for Greipel today.
He's been there or thereabouts all those weeks ago, after seeing him at the back over the last couple of weeks it would be nice to see him off the front.
Bullyboyhanni, nah. Not unless he catches the train down, navigates his own way from the station and doesn't stop off in a cafe.
EBH, nope.. too knackered.
Or..
Kristoff ? Might be angry enough. Having punted around France for weeks & being asked the same questions.. over and over again..
Or
Total leftfield..
Mr Cummings, punt from 100k 10min lead, to win by 11mtrs.
Mr Cummings, punt from 100k 10min lead, to win by 11mtrs.
That'd be an edge of the seat finish and no mistake.
When the tour finishes it always takes me a few days to get used to not putting the TV on at 7 every night, and checking bike related sites for updates during the day. I'm sure my wife won't miss it at all though!
Right, coffee consumed, prediction time.
With no dominant sprint team and perhaps with eyes already on Paris, this stage is wide open. On paper, Greipel is the best sprint left but he's not exactly had a vintage tour. Kristoff and Katusha in general desperately need something from this tour and I don't think they'll fancy Paris, a straight up sprint will see him beaten by Greipel, Groenewegen and possible Matthews and EBH. So, I think Katusha will drive the peleton, but Greipel will take the win.
Strangely i think Matthews could take it, he isn't a classic sprinter, but good team around him and he is riding high with confidence which the others are missing
So no chance of changes in the GC today?
Surely they will have to try something creative to stand a chance of taking the overall win?
I think Griepel will save his "a win in every GT" record... in Paris, like he did last year. He's looked dejected crossing the line in sprint stages and has publically apologised to his team.
I reckon Matthews for today for Scud's reasoning.
always a chance but they need high winds really on a flat stage ...I suppose a mechanical and an attack could work as well.
Its not impossible to achieve or try but it is unlikely to work.
Kwaito, this man went deep yesterday, awesome ride.
That was fun to watch despite his turn being a bit detrimental to the racing. Liked that he tossed his glasses to the side of the road. Grimaced a lot. And then when he couldn't do anymore he literally stopped. He had to unclip and stop Great to see 🙂
Bahrain-Merida, BMC Racing, Cofidis, Dimension Data, Fortuneo-Oscaro, Katusha-Alpecin, Movistar, Orica-Scott, UAE Emirates and Wanty-Groupe Gobert
That is some list of teams without a win. Going to be a very entertaining first half hour!
No mention of Degenkolb at all? He seemed quite fast the other day when he got boxed.
But I'll go with old baby face, EBH, for the win today.
He had to unclip and stop Great to see
I hate it when I have to stop after a hard effort, I inevitably puke if I can't spin and keep moving. Admittedly, I can only do about 6 or 7 minutes at 6W/Kg rather than an hour, but it still kills me. 😆
That was fun to watch despite his turn being a bit detrimental to the racing. Liked that he tossed his glasses to the side of the road. Grimaced a lot. And then when he couldn't do anymore he literally stopped. He had to unclip and stop Great to see
It was a hell of a turn, Millar was saying that he's about to peel off about 3km before he did, he seemed to do Nieve and Henao's turn as well as his own. I'd imagine he finished in the grupetto and will be in a lot of pain today. Landa may have been the domestique who could have got on the podium but Kwaito has been the one who held things together, similar to G last year, just being there when it was needed.
According to his Twitter feed, they were his last pair of glasses.
[img] 
:large[/img]
Barguil would probably buy him a new pair as it was Kwiatkowski's turn that nullified the GC battle, slowed things down, and let him get his stage winning gap 🙂
Only AG2R would have an interest in trying to change the GC today to try and protect Bardet's podium position, but with Landa looking to jump to 3rd, Sky have 2 reasons to keep them in check. Most of the riders and knackered, with the majority simply looking to conserve energy and get to Paris - I predict a break going away early and staying away - then the rest of the teams can simply control the pace / gaps. A few teams haven't had a sniff at a stage or podium, so they'll be looking to send their strongest down the road too..
He still got 8th overall on the Strava segment, so he didn't stop for too long. 8)
https://www.strava.com/segments/12889819?filter=overall
He finished 13 minutes down. The grupetto was half an hour back.
So no chance of changes in the GC today?
I saw on fb mention of strong cross-winds towards te end of the stage so I guess there is the chance, but i have no idea if that is a real weather forecast or wishfull thinking 😆
the Strava segment
18 mph avg up the Isoard, at the end of 4 hrs of riding, after 3 weeks of racing 😯
I saw on fb mention of strong cross-winds towards te end of the stage so I guess there is the chance, but i have no idea if that is a real weather forecast or wishfull thinking
Accu weather suggest a 11 km/h southerly gusting to 20km/h so I doubt it
That last bit going east to west before the run south to the finish could be interesting if the wind does pick up.
A few teams haven't had a sniff at a stage or podium, so they'll be looking to send their strongest down the road too..
26K to the top of the first climb. 50K until the initial climbing stops. If teams are not happy with the make-up of the break, we could be in for a rapid start.
In other news. Embrun is in a lovely location. 😯
There seemed to be a lot of Sky riders hanging about at the back in the neutral zone, so it doesn't look like they will be minded to control things from the off.
Don't panic, Kwaito has a new pair of sunnies.
[img] 
:large[/img]
Indeed - what great publicity for Oakley. 😉
[quote=matts ]There seemed to be a lot of Sky riders hanging about at the back in the neutral zone, so it doesn't look like they will be minded to control things from the off.
Hmm. Isnt that what happened in the Vuelta last year when there was a massive GC break where the sky train were at the back of the peloton so Contador and Quintana got away? Admittedly a harder muontain stage then than today's stage
That was fun to watch despite his turn being a bit detrimental to the racing. Liked that he tossed his glasses to the side of the road. Grimaced a lot. And then when he couldn't do anymore he literally stopped. He had to unclip and stop Great to see
These guys get so much respect from me. Bury yourself for as long as you can to/up the side of a mountain, until you physically can't do it any more. Then pull over and let the rest past.
And then you might still have another 10km to do up a 9 or 10% slope, that most of us would consider a tough ride on its own.
Oh - and then do it again tomorrow, if you don't mind........
I have to say, that new Kask lid looks awful. Odd, as it's the same general shape as the Protone, just with different/more vents. Maybe it looks better in other colours.
The Domestiques do rule the Tour, for sure. Without the team where would Sky be now, it's worth asking and a question that will be raised in a couple of weeks when everyone's back at base doing thier post Tour epilogue.
But I do think it's rather boring to bring such a squad to the Tour, where the Tour leader doesn't win a Stage. I know we've got the TT to come.. and I'm so hoping Froomy (despite my lack of enthusiasm for him) wins. Reason ? The backlash will be rather large and targeted on the Domestiques and Tactics Sky utilise and employ. The French press at the moment are having a glory days mentally with such exceptional French riders performances, but once the last papers been used to wrap tomatoes in they'll turn hard and heavy on them, and no doubt bring up a lot of nasty resentment.
IMO Obvz is Obvz ..
Without the team where would Sky be now
However much people wan to to knock Team Sky and their tactics, the reality is that they seem to be able to work together, and for each other, as well, if not better, than any of the other teams. Many people were talking up the loose-cannon nature of Landa based on his time at Astana, but all the time he as been at Sky he has been a model team rider. The management, and psychological side of Sky probably don't get enough credit.
And while Landa and Kwiatko were high-profile signings, Froome and G have come up with them, and Poels, Nieve, Knees, Kiri, etc were known riders but not superstars.
But I'll go with old baby face, EBH, for the win today.
Oh. EBH in the break. Get in.
Has Froome stopped for a piss yet?
Sunweb/Giant need to fire whoever did the colour matching for that green helmet. 😕
bloke from BC on just asked about how they were going to support other non-road disciplines and gave an awful answer. A particular highlight was "MTB sales are growing so we expect the sport to grow" 🙄 a.k.a we going to do jack $h!t
However much people wan to to knock Team Sky and their tactics, the reality is that they seem to be able to work together, and for each other, as well, if not better, than any of the other teams.
Why do you think Lance / Postal were so dominant for years (aside from the doping...)?
One year, quite famously, Postal were the only team to finish with the full 9 riders.
Ullrich invariably failed due to half the team trying to support Zabel for sprint wins and half trying to back up Ullrich and the same story was repeatd across the Tours by various teams trying for several different goals at once.
I've criticised Sky in the past for the complete lack of any sort of Plan B when Plan A has crashed out but at least this time they have Landa. Other than that it's a pretty single minded focus to the extent that Froome didn't even go for the stage win yesterday.
Shame about G, he would have been a good option as well. But that's what it takes - all the people saying about Landa being let off the leash to attack and pull himself up the leaderboard, that's just not going to happen (even though as a team leader, Landa could be a contender).
Part of the reason it becomes dull(er) is that other riders start looking to protect their own position rather than trying to attack and move further up. Better to finish 6th than go out in a death or glory attack to potentially finish 4th...
Good lord the ITV commentary is dull today
to the extent that Froome didn't even go for the stage win yesterday.
I think he just went at the wrong moment. He gave Bardet and Uran the downhill to chase back on. Unfortunately, that also neutralised Landa's gap as well.
Part of the reason it becomes dull(er) is that other riders start looking to protect their own position rather than trying to attack and move further up. Better to finish 6th than go out in a death or glory attack to potentially finish 4th...
It's just the nature of a GT really. To some extent, World Tour points have made the same thing happen in 1 week stage races, but some people are always going to try and protect a top 10 in the Tour. Someone like Bertie can kick-off a crazy raid safe in the knowledge that he's one of the highest paid riders in the peloton and he can do what he likes. To others, 6th could be a huge stepping stone to a future career as a more protected team leader.
Mattews for the win today? Or even Cummings? (are they both still in it?)
I've criticised Sky in the past for the complete lack of any sort of Plan B when Plan A has crashed out but at least this time they have Landa
I think they gave thought to plan B but came back with - commit everything to plan A without reserve.
While I would prefer exciting racing, suicidal attacks and plucky break away riders taking jerseys sky are just riding the race to win as it is set out in front of them. I think the organisers do a reasonable job in shaking things up regarding changing the courses and style of the tour. Sky will remain dominant while they have such a massive budget - they can hire people as domestiques who would otherwise be team leaders which will probably see them win in most situations.
Sky will remain dominant while they have such a massive budget - they can hire people as domestiques who would otherwise be team leaders which will probably see them win in most situations.
I don't think their budget is much more than some of the other leading teams.
Tour de France team budgets (estimated)
Team Sky – €35m
Katusha – €32m
BMC – €28m
Tinkoff – €25m
Astana – €20m
Etixx-Quick Step – €18m
Movistar – €15m
Lotto-Soudal – €14m
LottoNL-Jumbo – €14m
Dimension Data – €13.5m
Orica-BikeExchange – €13m
Giant-Alpecin – €12.5m
Trek-Segafredo – €12m
Ag2r La Mondiale – €12m
Cofidis – €11m
IAM Cycling – €10.5m
FDJ – €10m
Cannondale – €10m
Lampre-Merida – €7m
Direct Energie – €6m
Bora-Argon 18 – €4.5m
Fortuneo-Vital Concept – €3.5m
Sky will remain dominant while they have such a massive budget - they can hire people as domestiques who would otherwise be team leaders which will probably see them win in most situations.
its only at the tour. granted thats the only race that most people watch, but for most of the rest of the year they are really not a superteam. They've tried many times at the giro and vuelta and cocked it up and they are not really at the races in the spring classics.
[img] 
?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=75edf031c93f53485be47286128e6cd0[/img]
Eddie11 makes a fair point. They focus their entire season on The Tour, The Giro, Vuelta and anything else is very much a 2nd issue. Same with their tactic, they're built around Froome winning, this year, no plan B, all prep around him. Other teams don't do that, though FDJ have come close this year, they all have other things in mind or other riders to watch.
Lovely photo of Froomy and Didi.
That's just fabulous.
😀
they are not really at the races in the spring classics.
Strade Bianche and Milan–San Remo this year, Liège–Bastogne–Liège and E3 last year, Omloop and E3 the year before. Some teams would trade their entire seasons for the two one-day races Sky won this year.
10mins ahead and 10k to go. Looks like a good one for the (remainder of) the break
Well bloody hell.
EBH.
Ferck yeah!
Great bit of riding there, EBH did the group by having a better line through the roundabout!
I seriously had him well down, thought the poor lad was pooped.
😆
wonder if that was luck or somebody told them to go to the right ?
had to laugh when the sunweb rider flicked the elbow and EBH just ... went
Very happy for EBH, been rooting for him all Tour.
Talk about ringing the last bit out of your legs. When he gets on the bus he'll be working out the likely cut-off time for the TT tomorrow. He deserves to soft pedal it after that. Chapeau.
I hope Edvald Boasson Hagen gets it, he's come agonisingly close a couple of times.
Success!
I missed most of the stage, how come the sprinters teams didn't pull the break back? I guess lotto had de gent up there, sunweb didn't have loads to ride for as their man was having a play at the front, but Katusha? Cofidis?
Ransos - best TdF photo ever. Winners come and go, Didi is eternal.
#FroomePaysProperHomage
I doubt they could've managed itI missed most of the stage, how come the sprinters teams didn't pull the break back?
Greipel was huffing & puffing right from the start
Matthews wasn't bothered
Who else have you got and is their team up to TTing it's way back onto what was a pretty classy 20 man break ?
Yep, love him and the way he wins stages. Great to see him back to his best.PJ266 - MemberVery happy for EBH, been rooting for him all Tour.
Cheers, I was thinking of Alexander kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni?
But if their teams didn't have the legs, they didn't have the legs. A couple of years ago Tony Martin could have closed things up, or at least smashed himself trying. Though with a TT tomorrow...
EBH'll be re-signing for Sky next 😉
So pleased for Edvard.
I missed most of the stage, how come the sprinters teams didn't pull the break back? I guess lotto had de gent up there, sunweb didn't have loads to ride for as their man was having a play at the front, but Katusha? Cofidis?
Several reasons.
Sky specifically didn't want a bunch sprint - too much risk of a pile up and Froome out of the Tour so trying to pull it back while Sky yell at you is going to be no fun at all.
Matthews has nothing to sprint for anymore as he's got Green sewn up. Might have been a different story if Kittel had been there and the battle was still very close. So Sunweb weren't going to do anything.
Greipel was nowhere all day so he's probably saving himself for Paris and it's pointless wrecking his team to pull back a 10 minute gap (while having Sky disrupt it all). And Lotto-Soudal are down to 6 men anyway.
It was a big breakaway - it was always going to be that way - so trying to pull back 20+ riders was never going to work out unless the entire peloton was up for it which they weren't. Most seemed to want a steady transition day. Uran will have wanted that as well to save himself for the TT so Cannondale-Drapac won't have contributed to any chase either.
Looking good for my 500 euros on Bardet (winnings, not stake). Won't get those odds next year I bet 🙂
Excellent from Higgs-Boson there!
When I saw them go to the other side, I thought, "Eddy will have done the recon on this one, either as a potential lead out for Cav, or as a break for himself. He's doing that on purpose!" and he was!
Felt sorry for Arndt, though! Got the right side, got ahead, flicked the elbow, then looked across to see EBH. You could almost see him sag down in despair!
But I'll go with old baby face, EBH, for the win today.
Called it.
I thank you.
Tomorrow Froome will win or monster the TT. I struggle with this as he is a beanpole climber with no TT track record until he joined Sky. How does he get so good in 4 years compared to rivals?
How does he get so good in 4 years compared to rivals?
Being diagnosed and treated for bilharzia might have had something to do with it...
Maybe he trains for it??
And his rivals don't?
Maybe he trains for it??
Especially with the background Team Sky have with British Cycling track program, and guys like Wiggins, Thomas, etc. Froome was also a pretty good TTer even as an espoir.
And his rivals don't?
Obviously they all do. But to a greater or lesser extent. You see Froome out on his TT bike all the time. Even doing recon and rest day rides on the TT bike when the rest of the team are on their road bikes.
Froome is like Dumoulin as a climber, he's not explosive, he likes to pick a pace and go on it. A TT plays to that strength and unlike someone like Quintana he's put the work into perfecting the position, getting back into it quickly after corners etc. Dr Hutch at the Giro said that Quintana's team could save him 30s on the TT by putting a sticker with "Sit Down" on it on the bars. Look at Yates' Stage 1 TT, it was surprisingly good and I'd bet a lot of that was just applying his undeniable power uphill to the specific requirements of TTs.
Funny thing with Froome is he does have those explosive accelerations and has used them in the past (who can forget the crazy high cadence bursts.) Is curious that we've not really seen that this Tour. All too often these days though attacks just boomerang and you end up out the back. Maybe he's confident he's going to smash it in today's TT or maybe he's just not on peak form.
Those roundabout tactics absolutely made my day 😀