MegaSack DRAW - 6pm Christmas Eve - LIVE on our YouTube Channel
The sun is shining, the tour is in the Alps and Lunge is a happy man. Big day today, massive.
Chris Froome has attacked downhill (to Bagnères-de-Luchon, his only stage win so far), on the flat (to Montpellier with Peter Sagan), uphill (to Mont Ventoux, before being stopped by a crash). He's been the best of the GC contenders against the clock in the Ardèche. He faked an attack to test his rivals on the Grand Colombier. He seems to have the race under his hand for the third time. He can go for the last mountainous part of the race on a defensive mode. His advantage is 1.47 over Bauke Mollema, 2.45 over Adam Yates and 2.59 over Nairo Quintana. It's significant but not enormous. Froome is the only rider who has experienced losing the yellow jersey at Finhaut-Emosson. It happened at the Critérium du Dauphiné two years ago. Everything seemed under control for Team Sky but Alberto Contador attacked them in the last two kilometers. The hors-category final climb is a grueling one. Lieuwe Westra's stage victory at the Dauphiné recalls the possibility for a winning breakaway in the only entire Swiss stage of the Tour de France. FDJ's Steve Morabito and Sébastien Reichenbach who are the locals might be inspired.
The contenders, well, we'll have to see.
Chris Froome is the safe pick, he’s in yellow but will want the defining stage win in the maillot jaune and what better way for him to approach the following days in the Alps having thrashed his rivals in this summit finish?Richie Porte is next, if Froome is climbing well then Porte briefly looked better on Mont Ventoux before he collided with the motorbike. He should enjoy this steep climb but beware of the heat, his stocky build is a touch less suited to it.
It’s D-Day for Nairo Quintana, discovery day. While you suspect even Vladimir and Estragon are getting tired of waiting for Nairo to attack this is a big test for his promised third week assault. Don’t hold your breath with talk of him being ill but if he’s recovered from his savaging by the Mistral wind he could and should still be a factor. If not then Alejandro Valverde is waiting but it looks like too much for him to win the stage.
Fabio Aru and Romain Bardet are the outside picks, Chris Froome and Team Sky could afford to let them go but it’s not in their style to gift wins or give away time and if either of these try to take time others in the top-10 are likely to react.
Among the breakaway picks Rafa? Majka and Ilnur Zakarin were the best climbers on the Grand Colombier and if they can infiltrate the day’s breakaway they’ll find the finish suits them well.
I'll post some rest day pics and opinions when I have access to a PC as doing this on my iPad is driving me mad!
That last climb up to Emosson dam is bloody massive!! Was out there a few weeks ago with Bike Verbier, and even in a van it took ****ing ages to get anywhere near the top of it.
Wonder how that Yates lad will do today, am hoping he starts to have a little more of a go at the big boys today. Be great to see him on the podium in gay Pareee.
Can understand why Cav has packed his bags but would have loved to see him try for the win in Paris.
I see Cav went for "tests" yesterday, did he come back to the hotel or was it thinly veiled disguise to get him on a flight home? I'd love to see him take the win in Paris
as for today, It's Nairo's showdown. If he's got it, he's got to bring it out. I don't think he has
Oh how I wish I was watching this live at home with many chilled beers. The last climb does look very steep, and i'm not sure who that will suit. I think Froome will be looking to do well and he seems in great shape to do it, especially after leaving Quintana on Ventoux. He is also good in the heat too. I do want to see others attacking though, but not sure if Movistar have the strength to make an attack stick, especially with Sky still having a full team on the road. Looking at pictures of the last climb it looks like some sections can't have spectators because it is narrow and very steep either side? If so then that might be a blessing in disguise.
EDIT - would love to see Yates continue to do well, really hope he makes the podium on Sunday
I don't think anoyone will massively trouble Sky or Froome now. They may take 20-30s one day.. maybe a different day... but overall i think it's over for this year apart from some excitement.
Funny on the ITV4 coverage yesterday they were playing down the importance of today, and that tomorrow's time trial would be the day to make time.
Really hope Yates has a go, be brilliant to see him on the podium, comes across sound in his interviews. I'm guessing he'll need to try and make time to stick on third?
Cav was being a bit cagey in his interview too, should have just said 'there's a good chance I'm leaving as BC want me back.'
Never seen Froome look as chilled, rested and generally 'well' as when he was interviewed yesterday. It'd be lovely to see Yates podium in Paris but suspect the next few days will take their toll
No change in the overall but a change in the following field is my bet.
BBC confirm Cav's gone home. Their detail is ropey though, I've not heard of british rider "Andy Yates" who's looking to have a go at Froome if he gets the oppprtunity, and while it's good to see that they are covering Cummings' call up to the Olypmic squad their GB Cycling squad list doesn't mention Grant Ferguson competing in MTB XCO
I think Froome will smash it today, and put to rest all the comments that he's already won it by, well, winning it.
I see Cav went for "tests" yesterday, did he come back to the hotel or was it thinly veiled disguise to get him
Cav announced yesterday he was going home to prepare for Rio.
[url= http://africasteam.com/2016/07/19/mark-cavendish-leaves-tour-de-france/ ]Announcement Here[/url]
Cav's gone, it was on his and Peta's Twitter feeds last night. Real shame, I'd have loved to see him going for the win on Champs-Elysees but 4 tough days in the Alps before it is probably not worth his time before Rio. 🙁
Today - BMC and Movistar really need to come up with some sort of two-pronged attack on Sky. Otherwise it'll become a fight for the lower placings. I hope Yates stays up there.
Friday's monster stage to Mont Blanc looks good. Have a word with Tejay, get him to lose a heap of time and rest up over the next couple of days. He's cooked anyway. Send him up the road in the early break, and When you hit the beginning of the Montee de Bisanne at 60km to go, gun it. Go hard. Sky and Movistar will be too busy looking at each other, and they'll think you're going too far out. Bridge up to Tejay and keep it going. You might get caught. You might not. You might get a stage win. You might claw back enough time to get third, or second, or maybe - just maybe - yellow. You might blow up spectacularly and roll in half an hour down. It doesn't matter.
http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/blog/2016/07/20/attack-australia-richie
Some more than partisan Australian advice 🙂
I've gone for Valverde today cos I think the arse will fall out of Quintana and Valverde will get team orders to get up the road. I'm almost certain to be wrong though.
Would like to see Froome put under some pressure, can't see where it's going to come from though..
With the steepness of the final climb it is made for Quintana but I don't think he has the legs. A lot of people are going to struggle today, I'll take a gamble at predicting a win for Aru.
@nickc very interesting BV would take you up there, long way from their base with no obvious way back, ride down to Martigny and train/van back ?
Today moviestar and BMC need to give it a lash. Torn re Yates, the white jersey is massive, follow wheels and try to keep it and the podium. Would love to see him attack but he's young and his time is to come. Froome just needs to mark people as you imagine he will more than hold his own in the TT.
We did it with BV, getting the train from Martigny to Finhault, then riding up to the dam before the most amazing of descents all the way back down to Martigny. FWIR it was quite a drag of a climb on our 'enduro-sleds'!
Froome will want to win this, unless there's an irrelevant break, in which case he'll still gap his rivals on the final climb just like Ventoux.
I don't really see it as a Valverde climb. It will be nice to see if that attack by Ritchie on Ventoux can be repeated and if it will stick (spectators allowing). Though I think the stick insect will come whirling up as usual.
More time to be won or lost tomorrow I think.
Gavin, thanks ! 700m climb to dam from station 😯 ? Any other route hints ? Follow railway back down to Vernanyaz ? I will be out again in a few weeks and happy happy with a map. To be honest if its 700m up that TdF climb I won't be doing that.
It was near enough 800m, and yes, it is just straight up that climb!
Movistar are cooking something up with Astana apparently so I'm predicting an attack on the Cat 1 climb from Aru/Nibali. Movistar to get on the front and try and do a "Sky" to put Froome under pressure but all that will achieve is to knacker Quintana even more.
Froome will want to put this beyond doubt today and the stage suits him so I expect a big effort on the final climb with Richie Porte and Bauke Mollema trailing behind him but putting time into the other GC contenders. I'm not sure what Adam Yates will do and hoping he will be in the mix but suspect the attacks will just be too much for him.
You might claw back enough time to get third, or second, or maybe - just maybe - yellow. You might blow up spectacularly and roll in half an hour down. It doesn't matter.
I doubt we'll see it but it would be fun to watch!
Froome's office.
Wonder when that was taken? Full on TT bike for stage 18?
Interesting that he's got the map view up. I wonder if that's just to follow the course for training or if he uses the map view when racing? Rode some unfamiliar big long descents a few weeks back following the garmin and it was surprisingly useful in seeing what was coming up to judge how much speed to carry (e.g. a shallow bend or a hairpin.)
Tough one to call today. A fair few mountain points on offer so could be a day for the break. Reckon Sky will be happy to have an easy ride up to the Forclaz so will depend on whether one of the other GC teams want to pick it up. I doubt they will. Wouldn't be surprised to see all the GC teams try and get riders in the break too.
Bardet for a gallant attack. Froome to bring him back. Quintana will fail to deliver. GC unchanged.
Cav's tests showed that his passport was still valid, and that obviously an extra week of race taper is better than floggng oneself over the Alps Four stage wins doesn't sound so different to five. Paris or no Paris. Good move in my opinion. Needs just four more stage wins. On this year's form, they'll come.
They not showing the stage from the start today? Bit disappointing that.
Rode some unfamiliar big long descents a few weeks back following the garmin and it was surprisingly useful in seeing what was coming up to judge how much speed to carry (e.g. a shallow bend or a hairpin.)
That's what I was thinking. over that crest could be a tight hairpin or a straight. If you're on the aerobars, you'd want to know which!
@jamba, no we were in the van, so a quick ride up, than down through amazing decent "Spainish...something" loads of techy switchbacks and a bar finish.
Back to BV in the Van. As I went before the lifts were open we were doing Van assisted days out.
froome maintains the status quo waiting for tomorrow to extnd his lead
Porte has a go Nairo is this years Shleck
Yep late start on the coverage
How weird was Froomes reply to have you ridden the final climb today?
No, i've only seen it on paper, no wait, no, yeah, I've ridden it.
I guess he may not have ridden it specifically in preparation for this Tour, but he's most likely ridden it as part of Romandie or the Dauphiné. Could account for the confused sounding reply.
@doctorgnashoidz - From the very first post in this thread:
Froome is the only rider who has experienced losing the yellow jersey at Finhaut-Emosson. It happened at the Critérium du Dauphiné two years ago. Everything seemed under control for Team Sky but Alberto Contador attacked them in the last two kilometers.
Maybe he wanted to forget that 😕
That or the drugs... Only joking! I've got the Froomeister ftw today, fallback Bardet. I know nothing though.
I think Froome could win it if he decides to.
Barring a crash or mechanical the GC appears to be his, so the interesting stuff now is the race for podium spots among the others.
Get the feeling Mollema may have a point to prove after Ventoux, could also see Bardet going for it.
Would be nice to see an attack from Quintana, if he's been unwell and is now recovered - but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Strong group going clear apparently...
Tanel Kangert (Astana), Stef Clement and Jarlinson Pantano (IAM), Kristjian Durasek (Lampre-Merida), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal), Rafal Majka and Peter Sagan (Tinkoff), Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R), Steve Morabito (FDJ), Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) and Brice Feillu (Fortuneo-Vital Concept).
Sagan on the hunt for intermediate sprint points, Majka for KOM points. Wonder how much time the peloton will give them.
over three minutes clear at the moment according to the guardian
Can't get the live tacking to work yet
It was near enough 800m, and yes, it is just straight up that climb!
Cheapeu !! They had some space last year before lifts fully opened but after chatting through with them likely riding and climbing we ageeed it wasn't for me. 300-500m a day I can manage but thin air and heat plus lack of condition isn't a great combo. I was a but tentative about my lose plan to ride from Verbier up towards Forclaz on my Covert today and Inwas allowing all morning 😳
@nickc - cool, that I can handle 8)
I've driven the Martigny/Chamonix road up/down many times but never gone upto the dam. My roadie mate with a place in Chamonix has done the climb inc fo the dam.
Quintana has looked out of sorts to me all race. I do fancy Mollini and Porte to be in the GC mix
French TV now live.
That's a lot of riders to allow 8 minutes up the road. Sky all staying in the peloton, as are Movistar.
Can't get the live tacking to work yet
It's working from the app on my phone, but I won't give anything away except to say... No, really I can't.
No one up the road for Movistar. Lack of ambition?
How does Sagan seem to get involved every single day one way or another? Is he invisible to the peloton?
Not getting Movistar's tactics at all this year, and leaving it so late last year to attack the yellow jersey was dumb.
So....is this down to lack of ambition? or is it underestimating the work Sky do to neutralise and minimise the ability for others to attack. As much as I've been impressed by Froome and Sky this year for the intent and unpredictable nature of their attacking, it really feels like there's not been much ambition elsewhere (GC wise that is).
If any decisive action is going to happen today, its going to happen on the penultimate or final climb. No reason for Movistar (or any other team) to expend more energy than necessary before they hit the two big climbs, whether or not they are planning for an attack. Movistar wouldn't get Quintana (or Valverde) out in a break early on (Sky wouldn't let them go I'm sure), so why waste their efforts?
Uphill crashes - must be tired!
But traditionally if you want to attack later on you'd stick one or two riders up the road as a spring board. My take is Quintana is either ill or not in form and today will just be a hanging on effort.
Sagan is quite a way down the GC (currently 79th and 1hr56 behind Froome) so not threatening the leaders. When he wins a stage it's usually in a sprint not far ahead of the peloton but on other stages he's quite a way back not expending more energy than he needs to, saving it for his targeted stages.
ITV4 highlights had an interview last night with Bernard Hinault who was bemoaning the lack of attack by the GC riders. Takes quite a bit of effort to get away from a group who don't want you to go - you have to catch them off-guard (unlikely with say several Team Sky riders watching you) and then make continual sustained efforts to get away. Unless you've got a team mate or mates ahead to then help you out it's a cats and mouse game from then on.
Peleton looks like its on a club social
Peleton looks like its on a club social
That would be because in the first hour they did 52kph while the break was trying to get established whcih is insanely fast in this heat and with that summit finish to come. Now it's gone and everyone is happy with it, they'll just sit up.
But traditionally if you want to attack later on you'd stick one or two riders up the road as a spring board. My take is Quintana is either ill or not in form and today will just be a hanging on effort.
I've watched the TdF for years on and off (not as an afficiando) and never really understood this. Is the idea that they get ahead, use more energy than their colleague who they are trying to help whilst they get away, but then take a bit of a breather and fuel up whilst it all comes back together again with their leader then trying to leap across onto their wheels before they are caught, at which point the breakaway pairing have to put in a second effort? I can sort of see that, but it sounds a risky strategy if it fails as you'd end up with two riders from your team with less to give when it all comes to the sharp end.
Pretty much. Send someone up the road, then bridge across and have them pace you. It happens a lot and can work well. Contador and Tinkoff always seem to be doing it.
@larkim - pretty much it but these guys recover pretty quickly and depending on where the domestiques get away and where the GC contender attacks they might be aided by the terrain - hills, descents, twisty or narrow roads. Sometimes luck plays a part.
After that it depends on who's willing to help the leader's team, if no-one has a vested interest in doing so then they've got to do all the work themselves and at this stage in the race the leader might only have two or three domestiques in the lead group with him so rather than three riders vs the peloton or at least a big bunch it becomes three riders vs three or four. Much more favourable odds.
Edit: as if to prove my point about Sagan - having got the intermediate points he's now eased up as he knows he's unlikely to keep pace with the hill specialists.
Looks lovely out there on the stage. Love to be riding up that 🙂
Oooh Movistar pushing on.
Is it just me who has a disliking for Little Tommy Vockler?
Yes driven that road many times, route between Chamonix and Verbier and we usally do both in the summer. Really should ride it one day and thats the easier bit if the stage today !
Oh dear, Tejay off the back and pedalling the proverbial squares still with 20k to go.
Astana picking up the pace now.
TJ gone, somewhat unsurprisingly.
BBC text reporting that Movistar upped the pace, Sky kept with them and now Quintana has two team mates, Froome has five. Don't think that worked somehow 🙄
Sagan sucked up - classy shirt adjustment/change no handed ! Dropped off back now, looks done. edit: commentator said he'd been working for Majka, must have missed that 😳
That would be because in the first hour they did 52kph while the break was trying to get established
I still find this incomprehensible. Even if group riding is a lot easier than soloing or small groups, someone's got to be at the front doing that pace for them to follow.
Diff'rent gravy, those boys.
Majka dropped, Zakarin gone up the road. Looks to me the real interest will be GC, Sky again look so strong
@theotherjonv - If a big group is racing along then the riders at the front are actually being pushed forward by those behind. It happens in small groups as well but the effect is smaller. Basically a big group of riders riding close together goes f***ing fast!
Well, that's an impressively strong effort by the Russian cyclist
Froome to attack in 3, 2, ...
See how Nibali has just pulled over and slowed after setting the pace. Why does that take more out of him than his teammates? Is it just a mental thing, following a teammate who is setting a pace for you? It's not like they're doing speeds where slipstream would come into play is it, so why does the one at the front get more knackered than the ones following at the same pace?
If a big group is racing along then the riders at the front are actually being pushed forward by those behind.
No they're not. Their air resistance is marginally reduced over riding solo, but they are not being 'pushed'.
Valverde having a bit of a dig.
Movistar solo kick ... one Sky rider done .. Froome seems willing to hang back a little ?
2km to go, Dan Martin now having a go, Valverde back in the bunch.
Is anybody watching live? Live tracking showing Quintana's foxtail as not responding.
Is he still in the leader group?
Yep, Nairo sat on Froome's tail, group all back together.
Camera currently on Zakarin ...
Last Maillot Jaune group shot it looked like Quintana was still on Froome's wheel but there's two Movistar riders in that group so could have been the other rider.
Edit: yep Quintana just sat there
2km to go, all still together.
Movistar boss reckons they're going to attack at sme point but if they are waiting to ambush Froome in the last two days that's a ballsy strategy, or a shit one.
Porte having a little dig here.
He's got a gap too, I reckon Froome is struggling.
Porte and Quintana (I think it's him) attack!
Porte goes Froome not looking bothered, Quintana neither








