Morning everyone, all recovered from yesterdays boring sprint stage?
Due to the weather conditions forecasted by Météo France atop the Mont Ventoux with gusts of wind likely to exceed 100km/h, Tour de France organizers have decided to modify the finale of stage 12 in order to guarantee optimal safety conditions. Therefore, the stage finish will be located at Chalet-Reynard, 6 kilometres before the initially planned finishing line. But it doesn't mean there'll be less racing. It might even be a more decisive stage since the head wind towards the end of the Mont Ventoux has sometimes forced the GC contenders to climb on a conservative mode. Race leader Chris Froome expects an even more intense battle uphill but also another crazy in the valley where the wind is expected to blow strongly. It's another day for echelons to be formed way before having the giant of Provence in sight. Top favourites might not give it all though as they'll keep the demanding time trial of the day after at the back of their mind. The arrival at Chalet-Reynard remains a HC climb with the points being doubled up, so it'll be crucial for the King of the Mountains competition. It's Bastille Day, France expects polka dot jersey holder Thibaut Pinot to shine at the front.
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Who's going to win it? [url= http://inrng.com/ ]Inrng[/url]?
The Contenders: at this rate Chris Froome‘s going to take off solo early in the stage. Just teasing but his confidence is being reinforced every day with his bold racing. Some say his small gains so far reflect nervousness about Nairo Quintana, that he needs to take time for fear of the Colombian. But it seems the opposite, he’s jumping away because he can. Team mate Sebastian Henao is another contender, he’s been opening the road for Froome but could feature.Nairo Quintana‘s been following the wheels so far but when will he strike? He’s been wanting to win on Mont Ventoux ever since being countered by Chris Froome in 2014 and now’s the chance to launch his bid for the overall win. The later he leaves his move the more time he’ll have to take back.
Dan Martin‘s in scintillating form, much is being made of Chris Froome 3.0 (Mr Invisible 1.0, The Skybot 2.0 etc) but Martin’s come on a lot since swapping Slipstream for Etixx-Quickstep and has the searing sprint to take the stage win as long as there’s no breakaway up the road. He kept attacking for no gain on the climb to Arcalis but should sit tight to snipe the stage win on this steeper climb.
Richie Porte is BMC Racing’s best bet, the more explosive of their two leaders, he’s got the jump but a stage win here seems possible but only just given the opposition above.
Bastille Day hopes rest on Romain Bardet. Part of his pre-Tour prep included a visit to Ventoux where he rode up in training in an hour on what wasn’t a fast day either. This doesn’t guarantee a win but he could feature. A rider with a faster finish is Adam Yates who is sitting second overall at 28s for a reason and hasn’t taken a time bonus so far. He’s got a good finish as his kick in Arcalis showed. The question is how long he can keep it up but he seems relaxed an unfazed.
Rafa? Majka’s down on the overall classification but not out. He and Thibaut Pinot will both be trying to infiltrate the day’s breakaway because of the double goal of the stage win and the points on offer for this “summit” finish. Between the two Majka is the stronger and Pinot himself has acknowledged this but the Frenchman can still surprise.
If you want three left field for Bastille Day names then Fabrice Jeandesboz, Pierre-Luc Périchon and Nicolas Edet are each there for the three French wildcard teams.
And of course, some pics from stage 11
Plotting
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Not a break anyone was expecting:
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Well still reeling a bit from the break last night and happy(ish) that we are shortening the stage, should be wrapped up by 1am local time (I hope)
Thoughts?
Sombody has to do something if only to secure second.
Passport checks to enter the breakaway
Lots of covering in the wind but seeing how bad it got when people dropped back for drinks etc. nothing it set in stone.
Having a team mate up the front to warn about wind might be handy.
Regardless of the situation if any of the GC contenders are together at the start they will/should all be working on attacking Froome, firstly to see if they can isolate him and make some time up and secondly to take something out of his legs for the TT tomorrow.
Oh and thirdly if they don't then they should be off to pack their bags...
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Anyone else want to see G's power file for yesterday? The watts he must of had to put out to catch the break and help Froome must have been off the chart, a proper effort that was.
I see Rodriguez winning today.
The GC will just mark each other, again.
I think I know what book Froome read on the bus on the way over to France: "How To Win Cycle Races" by Peter Sagan.
And that's twice now Quintana had gone home with no lunch money or trousers. He really should get somebody to cover his morning paper round. If he doesn't do something today he might as well pack up and join Bertie in whatever Spanish deli he is lurking in.
It does look like one later hurrah of a stage for Purito, this one.
Froome to finish strongly, gaining time on Quintana.
I went for Porte in our fantasy league (ventuox stage winners were picked at the start of the tour). Don't know if he's got the team to survive the winds though.
I just loved the way Sagan was buzzing after the finish, clearly on a high from 10k of dishing it out
Don't know if he's got the team to survive the winds though.
In some ways you don't need a team as much just hug the back of the sky boys and make friends with Movistar, considering how surprised (well pissed off possibly) GT looked yesterday the rest stuck with them to the death and with a little more organisation (too many teams up front) could have reeled them in
Meh. The one day I really wanted to watch and I'm in the office in an all day meeting with after work activities meaning I'll miss the highlights also. Hurumph!
God, but Sagan's an ugly bloke, especially with that ridiculous hair.
Hopefully a nice fairly mixed stage. The sprint teams vying for the intermediate sprint maybe (or has everyone just given up on that one and will let Sagan have it all the way to Paris?)
Then the GC teams to battle it out over a reduced Ventoux. In some ways the reduction might make for better racing as there's less time to be wasted pacing around watching everyone.
They'll let the Frenchies have their day in the break though.
CaptainFlashheart - Member
It does look like one later hurrah of a stage for Purito, this one.
Froome to finish strongly, gaining time on Quintana.
Did Purito lose enough time yesterday for them to let him go? Don't think so, so he'll have to battle it out as a GCer still.
As for Froome, how much did yesterday cost him as opposed to the other GCers battling backin the peloton and how much does he have in reserve?
Finally who does damage limitation today looking to smash it tomorrow? Might be a day for Froome to inspect Quintana's rear mech.
the wind's going to bugger it up IMO - some might say it adds interest but not me 🙁
hope so - a break's the only thing that'll calm it downThey'll let the Frenchies have their day in the break though.
Did like G's comment at the end of yesterdays stage, something like "Phwwwww... Sagan, he was motoring."
I don't think anyone other than Froome and Quintana seriously think they can win the GC. I can't see much in the way of alliances forming against Froome, other than Movistar and maybe BMC there's no one in contention with a strong enough team. And the BMC boys at this rate will just be working hard to salvage a top 5. Everyone else will be cagely trying to consolidate their position in the top 5/10.
I'd like to see Bardet snatch this one for the French but he won't be given much room being less than a minute down on Froome. Aru or Nibali maybe to try and do something for Astana, been a poor Tour for them so far. Will this be the day Quintana finally tests his legs? My guess would be Dan Martin to snatch it on the line from Froome.
Did Purito lose enough time yesterday for them to let him go? Don't think so, so he'll have to battle it out as a GCer still.
He's just under two minutes back in 12th. Won't be given much room.
Finally who does damage limitation today looking to smash it tomorrow? Might be a day for Froome to inspect Quintana's rear mech.
I doubt anyone will hold back.
@hels 🙂
Always feel a bit short changed when the stage is shortened. Can't see any outcome other than Froome gaining more GC time although a stage win looks less likely with the shortened finish. Should liven things up for Morzine and Samoens-Joux Plane though.
Nice descent from Joux Plane to Morzine of course... Just saying.
Short stage? Cross winds? Ventoux? Bastille day? GC contenders needing to gain some time? Today has all ingredients to be absolutely nuts I reckon.
A few predication, undoubtedly inaccurate as ever.
1. The peleton will be horrible split even before they get to Ventoux.
2. At least 1 GC hopeful will lose the race today, likely in those splits.
3. Pinot will be in a French heavy break that won't stay away.
4. Bardet will be in a group that does stay away.
5. Quintana will win the stage. Not by much, but he will win.
6. Froome will sit and watch, it's an uphill stage and this year it appears that's not his bag.
7. I will crash the terrible internet in our regional office by trying to stream the race.
Hardly suprising they cancelled the summit finish when these were the conditions yesterday.
Nice descent from Joux Plane to Morzine of course... Just saying.
I did the Etape last weekend and that descent was very sketchy. They're still rebuilding bits of the road so it was narrower than normal and although it had been swept in advance of the Etape, there were still sections of gravelly dust.
Also, most people were absolutely shattered by that point and not really concentrating plus they were trying to build up to their big sprint finish in Morzine. 🙄 I was doing about 40 at one point and a guy went past me like I was standing still, then he failed to make the next bend...
Hopefully all fixed in time for the Tour.
4. Bardet will be in a group that does stay away.
5. Quintana will win the stage. Not by much, but he will win.
So Quintana will be in the group that stays away?
@crazy congrats on etape, my memory of the road is its quite twisty, no really long fast sections ?
God, but Sagan's an ugly bloke, especially with that ridiculous hair
According to Mrs GDF that isn't the ladies' view - he can "spin her pedals anytime" were her words. I don't know what she means.
I just see Quintana losing more time today. TBH I think this TDF is all but over as a contest*, both Yellow and Green were won yesterday.
* I hope this acts a commentators curse but I don't think it will.
So Quintana will be in the group that stays away?
I refuse to add logic to my predictions, they're wrong normally anyway.
What I was trying to suggest is that an elite group will go, it will include Bardet, Quintana, Froome and probably Porte and Martin. Quintana will win the stage, but only by a second or 2 in a jump from the group.
Froome will sit and watch, it's an uphill stage and this year it appears that's not his bag.
Seems to me that everything this year is froome back from break aways on the flat, uphill to downhill gap making.
He seems to have it all and its nice to see in a GC guy.
So Quintana will be in the group that stays away?
Unless Froome really is isolated, there is no way a move with Quintana in it will stick.
I can see Romain Bardet being allowed a little bit of leeway just for being French on Bastille Day but being brought back well before the finish. After all he's only 56" behind CF.
I really want to see Adam Yates in 2nd overall though and the White Jersey, I think that will be where the interesting fight is. Orica for Adam Yates and Etixx for Dan Martin really going for it to sort out the podium spots cos Dan Martin is going to lose time on the TT (although both him and Yates should excel on that uphill TT).
Really quite an interesting our this one in spite of the lack of Contador - although I never liked the cheating git anyway.
Have they decided exactly where the finish line will be? I heard it was going to be on a flat section near the car parks. If it is, and it's a small GC group contesting the finish, it's not going to favour a last minute jump by Quintana. More likely Martin or Froome.
If it is windy and chaos in the peloton before even getting to the Ventoux, that going to suit Froome much more than Quintana, who sounded like he had a tough time of it on yesterday's stage.
Also, most people were absolutely shattered by that point and not really concentrating plus they were trying to build up to their big sprint finish in Morzine. I was doing about 40 at one point and a guy went past me like I was standing still, then he failed to make the next bend...Hopefully all fixed in time for the Tour.
The road or the bloke? 😉
Quintana has got to show his hand at some point otherwise he stands no chance. He's got two TTs ahead where he's bound to lose some time to Froome, so unless he can look to get at least 60s today surely his goose is cooked.
With the top taken off Ventoux today, Froome can afford to spend energy today making sure Quintana doesn't get a gap, knowing that it won't hurt his TT as much as it would have done if he had to dig deep for the full climb.
Wind could play a big part in this too. Given how well Sky have ridden and taken the initiative compared to Movistar's frankly abyssmal reading of the stages so far, Froome is likely to be better protected.
Quintanna has to attack at some point
S far its all been Froome and he does not look like he has the legs or the tactical nous to actually attack
I agree he needs to or we could end p in the position of Froome just doing enough rather than us having a race
Wind could play a big part in this too.
They're saying it's a tailwind on Ventoux, not sure how much that will help or hinder any attacks though. In theory, it's more difficult to bring back an attack when there's a tailwind but equally it's more difficult to get one going in the first place.
God, but Sagan's an ugly bloke, especially with that ridiculous hair.
I think he's got great hair so absolutely right to flaunt it. 😀
What's the wind doing? Guessing strong westerly? Could make for a tough race on the section between Gordes and Bedoin, and then it's onto the Ventoux.
Froome stating in interviews this morning that he's going to try and conserve some energy for tomorrow's ITT... so it'll be all out attack on the Ventoux then 🙂
Ooof crosswinds from the start then a headwind from Gordes to Bedoin. Tough. Should be all together for the Ventoux.
Sagan ugly ? Clearly standards have changed since I was a young girl. He does remind me a bit of that French chap who played Tarzan.
Minus 10 degrees C on Mount Ventoux with spectators being treated for hypothermia 😯
Just rode up to Reynard this morning, or as close as we could. Great atmosphere up there, very windy at the top, and cold! The sheer numbers of people going up is astonishing.
Hopefully do it properly tomorrow or Saturday.
Breakaway at 15:30
Everyone well wrapped up on Mount Ventoux !
Break 18 mins quite a good effort after 80k
85k Sky and Orixx picking up pace, 18+ mins back mind
Got it on mute, what's going on with Aru?
Who's in the break? Anyone of interest?
had a bike change with a team mate earlier
second bike change required to get him back on his spare bike. Plenty of sticky bottle and a stroppy comisaire getting him back in 🙂
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Interesting group that, a couple of climbers in there so I suspect that will stay away.
From the guardian, 51 mins ago:
"13 riders out in front; the highest-placed in the GC is Dani Navarro, 34 minutes behind Chris Froome"
Lead down to under 10mins now with approx 50Km to go.
the live tracker has started to show froome as a lone rider ahead of the bunch he'd been in. Error, or real ?
Interesting group that, a couple of climbers in there so I suspect that will stay away.
A few pairings of strong man and climber (e.g. Greipel and De Gendt, Vanmarke and Lindeman.) Pauwels and the Tickler are an interesting combination.
It'll be close for them to stay away. Headwind I think and the peloton will be charging. Though the peloton (main GC grouping) is a much reduced one.
Error, or real ?
Froome looks to be in the big GC group.
Ta - would've been madness, even by his standards in this TdF. Tracker seems a bit weird; yellow not currently showing on it at all, though froome is now in the list of names for that biggish groupFroome looks to be in the big GC group.
now it's got him in a break with Tony Martin !
Ouch nasty fall in [s]cross wind climb[/s] just skidded out on a corner and brought others down, 2 sky down but up again, 1 very slowly on a replacement bike
Froome safely with 3 team mates
Rowe and Stannard apparently. Both back riding, Stannard went down hardest apparently.
Slippy corner? The OBE (Gerrans) and Sky rider (Stannard?) both seemed to go down independently at the same spot. Taken a bit of pace out of the chase.
^^^ yes thats what commentator said, slippery corner
Got the audio back on now 🙂 LeMond seems to think it was wind catching the wheel.
16k to go for the break. Getting excited!
Edit... Greipel attacks out of the group! Couldn't win a sprint stage so maybe he's decided to go for a hilly one 🙂 (more likely setting up a relay for De Gendt maybe?)
Griepel attacking up hill, Froome getting in a break away. What on earth is going on?
Quintana goes!
Pegged back. What else has he got?
Quinta really wants this, 2 digs so far.
Dan Martin off the back of the group 🙁
Navarro for me.
Dan Martin gone.
I reckon Froome will have an answer to anything Quintana can throw at him
Easily reigned in though .. Sky look strong
so strong
LeMond seems to think it was wind catching the wheel.
Dimension Data's telemetry suggested 55kmph crosswind.
Froooome
Quintana dropped 🙂
Ooof Quintana dropped!
Holy cow
That was a big dig.
Froome and Porte
Just like the old days..Porte and Froome.
Quintana can't hold any wheel.
Porte needs to do some work if he wants a podium.
Porte won't work, no way, he'll sit and get pulled up by the climb and on to the podium.
Well I cursed navarro. Keep my gob shut from here on in.
And Yates is off the front too... nice work
Froome running 🙁
Spectators took took him off