not with the climbing in this edition
Do you have an asterix against Yates and Carapaz because froome couldn’t be bothered with defending his Jersies ?
I'm not talking about what I think about it, I'm talking about what he would think about it, knowing he'd won the race but not necessarily against the best competition, who would have raced it but didn't through injury.
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
The betting odds are interesting (and normally close to what actually happens). Some outside chances with huge odds. Pity I don't bet..
The bookies seem to agree that the top three are likely to be G, Bernal, Fuglsang. Putting a fiver on Nibali might make you a couple of hundred quid if he wins. Aru, TjvG, Dan Martin or Valverde hover around 100:1, if I'm reading this (very small) screen correctly! Go Dan! 😀
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
That's exactly the question I'm asking, yes.
Putting a fiver on Nibali might make you a couple of hundred quid if he wins. Aru, TjvG, Dan Martin or Valverde hover around 100:1
£5 each way on Nibali or Martin doesn't seem like a bad bet actually. I don't think either will win but you wouldn't be surprised to see either on the podium.
Porte and Nairo have a habit of losing time being on the wrong time of a peleton split in the early stages of a race, if either are going to mount a proper challenge they need to be at the front. Porte's problem is that his team don't seem to make this happen, Nairo's issue is that his team always come with multiple contenders so they aren't focused.
I'd be surprised if Bernal is favoured over the guy who won it last year. DaveB decided in the TTT that the only rider they would stop for was froome (as designated team leader) and he wasn't in yellow at the time, G was; but they were prepared to sacrifice G for Froome. so I'd bet the same applies this year with Egan in 2nd chair.
I'd love to see Bardet win it but my head says not, TT is a weakness
Go on, I’ll ask. Why not?
It was hard enough watching the remainder of the Dauphine without Froome and the thought of both him and G not being in the Tour was too awful to contemplate. However has it actually been officially confirmed that G will ride in Le Tour or just speculation on here? Regardless I prefer the Vuelta.
I'd really like to see Bardet in GC contention this year, or at least on some podiums. I just seem to like the fella, dunno why, I might put a little bet on him just for fun.
I'd Be interested to see how Yates gets on too.
G will either have a Great tour or a disaster but nothing in-between so it should be exciting.
I haven’t seen the CCC roster yet, but does anyone know if GvA is riding?? If so, he’s a distinct possibility FTW
I believe he is – but not a GC contender surely?
Hmmm.. he’s a hard flatlander, he can climb a bit too.. He has a team capable of holding it all together too so he could get dragged up the hard bits and gain time on the flat bits. I think there’s more to him than his adventures in the Classics these days.
Aru? Well he has shown talent in the past, one of my favourite riders because I think he gives his all all the time. Talent notwithstanding it’s the Team he has around him and their aspirations, which always look squeezed at any one time.. so I think his best option is to forget team orders and go for winning stages.. and up some big lumps too.
Martin, again a favourite rider of mine. Sadly I think it’s stage wins only but boy I’d like him to be in the top ten at the end. Again, team support always lets him down or gear failure.
Mr BirdSong, well after years of miss direction and lack of winning he does seem to have gained “something” over the last year... Astana are slick and know what to do and when to do it, whether you like them for their background or not.
Pinot, IF and that’s a BIG IF Groupama can support him (and going by their current roster, they should be able to) then there is a distinct opportunity for him.. I do wonder whether he has the mental strength to push past the “I’m always in a group” mentality, that’s not a criticism because I think he’s very talented more an observation about recent tour placing(s) again it’s team support he needs.
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
That’s exactly the question I’m asking, yes.
I don't think they've given it a moments thought, neither would Thomas if he wins again. You race against those who turn up, anyone else is an irrelevance.
I'd heard so little about Nibali I assumed he wasn't riding: so he's definitely in then? If so I'd never write him off.
Alaphillipe is my fave rider at the moment, but I'd take a bet that he'll never win the TdF - for a start, he's French.
Nibali had previously said he was only doing the TdF in a support capacity and maybe going for stage wins but seems to have rowed back on that having reflected on what was perhaps a sub-par Giro for him. I think he'll not have enough left in the tank though. GVA has absolutely zero chance of the GC. He's a stage hunter who can get over a few mountains but not as many as in a grand tour.
Aru will be an interesting watch this year now apparently he's had his illiac artery issue sorted. I predict a beautiful and emotional failure but he should animate some stages.
Its a shame that Bardet doesn't get the extra training he needs to get a better time in the TT.
I so enjoy watching Alaphillipe, De gendt, Dan Martin and now Wout Van Aert.
My favourite for the win is G or Adam Yates. But it's unlikely to be one of those 2. One can only hope.
I’d be surprised if Bernal is favoured over the guy who won it last year. DaveB decided in the TTT that the only rider they would stop for was froome (as designated team leader) and he wasn’t in yellow at the time, G was; but they were prepared to sacrifice G for Froome. so I’d bet the same applies this year with Egan in 2nd chair.
Froome is the strongest and most consistent grand tour rider of a generation, to the extent that if he were there, it would be a surprise for him not to win it.
Brailsford likes a rigid plan (Froome got no support when he crashed riding for Wiggins) but I suspect there is something of an open mind this year, especially with Geraint not having had much time racing.
As long as bardet or any Frenchman doesn't win then I'll be happy. Not because I have anything against the rider himself, but because the French supporters* have shown time and time again that they are a bunch of unsporting asshats.
*obviously not all of them.
Froome is the strongest and most consistent grand tour rider of a generation,
Arguably not. And would we even be having this debate if he rode for a different, weaker team who hadn’t helped him to those victories?
Of the current riders Froome has won 6 GTs (have I missed one out? Not counting Vuelta 2011). Nibali 4.
Contador has won 7. He is the strongest most consistent blah blah.. 😁
I’d suggest that Froome is a talented rider who had the luck to ride for the richest, most powerful team ever known in Grand Tour history.
I agree about Contador, he often seems to be forgotten when discussing theses thing.
Three of his victories were at the Vuelta, which doesn’t carry the same prestige as the Tour or the Giro, maybe that’s why? The Vuelta is sometimes my fave GT though.
... and in my mind he’s won 9.
It was hard enough watching the remainder of the Dauphine without Froome and the thought of both him and G not being in the Tour was too awful to contemplate.
There will still be loads of talent in the race, plenty to make it worth watching.
Long time Bardet fanboi here. Looking forward to it. Obvs ,I hope G does well ,plus Yates and Dan Martin - I'd particularly like to see him win another stage.
Personally, I can’t see past Bernal this year. G had his year, I think he peaked and was delighted by his win. But I think Bernal is on a different level. I’d rather like it to be Bardet of course. But it won’t.
Bernal is very young to have the endurance to win a 3 week tour.
It's the most open it's been in a long time, I can't see a single person I can think, yeah he's got it. All of them have great and bad days it seems.
I'm not sure what's happened with Porte at the moment, he's seems a way off.
I'm going for Nibali then, mostly because I love his attack attack style on the hills, he'll give it a go no matter what.
Bernal, wouldn't shock me at all. Him and Thomas will still be a strong force you can't count out. Apart from the crash you'd think Thomas will be at least as prepared this year as he was last year. So why can't he do it again? Heck, why not indeed
Nibali seems the best choice to me as he has the all-around ability and the experience.
2 points.
Point 1
I think Thibaut Pinot is in the form of his life and I'd love it if he can pull off the overall winner.
Point 2
It's about time we had a French winner. I read (a while ago) that Brailsford wanted to win the TDF with a French rider at some point, I think partly to prove how strong his team is (and tactically good he is) and partly to force the French public to if not love Sky/Ineos then to admire them. Of the current top French riders I think Brailsford could make TDF winner out of Pinot, Bardet and Alaphillip. Plus a certain Monsieur Alaphillip is out of contract soon, just saying.
Bernal looking very good in Swiss Tour but the opposition look much weaker than Dauphine I reckon.
@ian martin - I did see that Alaphillipe is out of contract at the end of this season and that "he knows who he wants to ride for".
I'd forgotten about Pinot. Is he consistent enough though?
Pinot lost his own way for a couple of years, talented and yet seems fragile.
I like his style, if he can get over whatever has been on his mind I do believe he’s easily top 5...
Fingers crossed for him.
Concerning Pinot's consistency, the same was labelled against Thomas before last year's TDF. I believe to win the Tour(or any Grand Tour) you need a large slice of luck despite how good you are, I just have a feeling that the stars are coming aligned for him. If it's not Pinot then it will be someone not even on people's radar like the year Carlos Sastre won.
Not seen enough of Bernal racing to judge his pedigree vs. GT, but has it even been stated that he'll have semi-protected status as "Plan B" (like GT last year)?
I'd back Geraint anyway - experience, knowing how to pace himself over three weeks and hopefully he's got his crashing out the way for the year now.
Agree Pinot is a good bet for the podium, Yates a dark-ish horse and Quintana strangely an unknown quantity now.
Looking forward to it actually.
Just discovered junior j’s best mate’s Mammy’s “maiden”name is Bernal. She is also Columbian. So now we are supporting him. 🙂
Alaphillipe
he's not out of contract, he just signed a 2 year extension with Deceuninck Quick Step
Bernal looked very good in Switzerland this week. I suspect he’ll do very well in France.
Carthy booking himself a ride on the Tour, I'd say.
Not seen enough of Bernal racing to judge his pedigree vs. GT, but has it even been stated that he’ll have semi-protected status as “Plan B” (like GT last year)?
I'm not sure it has, but generally Ineosky has pretty much always gone that way. If the leader has an issue and either drops out or falls back, the idea is that the second protected rider is still in a good position by virtue of not having been burned early in a stage or on a climb - domestiques get rotated, they might do a load of climbing one day then have a relatively easy time the next day so they can recover.
Last year G and Froome were nominally 'joint' leaders, but I think Froome was still the main leader until it became clear that G was stronger - they still bothered enough about him that Bernal dropped back on a mountain stage and towed him back up to the front group. In the past Richie Porte tended to be Froome's number two, but never really came through.
Given how well Bernal went last year and his form so far this year - just won the Tour de Suisse at a canter - he's the obvious call as back-up leader / second protected rider. Seeing as they've not even announced the Tour team yet it's more of an educated / semi-informed guess than anything else, but it'd be surprising if it didn't go that way.
Relative to G, Bernal's a better pure climber, not as good on flattish TTs though still only 20 seconds or so off Rohan Dennis yesterday, far less experienced and still learning about positioning etc. He seems to have a huge engine, particularly for a light rider - read somewhere that his VO2 Max is in the low 90s up around Lemond levels and also seems, based on the Tour last year, and his recent races, to be able to recover well after hard days and do it all again.
Descends well too - ex top-level junior mountain biker - and seems to have a really steady head on him. Also has a bit of real pure racing grit going on, there was a race last year when he was placed second going into the final day, behind Valverde I think, and rode like a nutter trying to make up the gap. Ended up crashing when someone went down in front of him, but there was something quite cool about how he refused to give up. Properly exciting rider, particularly on the big climbs where he's absolutely flying.
Finally comes across as very level headed and humble in interviews. They asked him after the win today if he thought he was one of the favourites for the Tour and he basically said he was happy to ride for Thomas and hey, he's only 22 and still learning.
So, not officially, but probably.
Doubting Thomas can make it two TDF wins in a row. And whatever Nibali’s form it’s not that of a TDF winner any more. Fuglsang might have done it if he’d targeted the TDF over the Giro.
I’d like to see Uran (or Martin - very unlikely) take the win, More likely it will be Bernal or Yates. Though might it be Landa’s (final) chance to shine?
Im sticking with Bernal, awesome climber and it looks to me as though he's been reigned in thus far. If not this year, he's one for Grand Tour victories.
“I’d suggest that Froome is a talented rider who had the luck to ride for the richest, most powerful team ever known in Grand Tour history”
Disagree with this - I’d suggest that it’s absolutely nothing to do with luck that he rides for Ineos - they hired him based on his numbers - once he worked out how to stay on the bike (remember everyone calling him “Crash Froome?) D.B. knew how potent he would be. He’s now considered to be one of the best bike handlers, his numbers are still amongst the best so it’s no surprise that he’s the finest grand tour racer of his generation.
Nibali have his all in the Giro to get 2nd. It’s been shown time again that in the modern post Armstrong era it’s nigh on impossible to maintain the same level of form into the TdF after being consistently at the pointy end of the Giro.
Both Yates’ have looked a little off condition this year.
Bernal is an interesting proposition as it seems like Columbians excel when they’re younger and wane earlier in their careers than Europeans. Could well be a genetic reason??
It’s hard to look past Thomas. His biggest drawback is lack of race miles but he does have good support and it is 3 weeks... plenty of time to get back up to speed (or crash).
However, Pinot is looking very strong this year and it’s been good to see Bardet push on a bit recently too. Are there many Valley floor after a fast descent finishes this year? If so Bardet is an absolute lunatic on a descent..!
remember everyone calling him “Crash Froome?
No. Because nobody had a clue who he was until he ‘supported’ Wiggo. (Don’t pretend you could see his potential 😂 )
“I’d suggest that Froome is a talented rider who had the luck to ride for the richest, most powerful team ever known in Grand Tour history”
Disagree with this
#metoo
Froome is indisputably the GC rider of the decade.
Exceptional natural talent and a ruthless racer.
It would have been so interesting to see how he did if he'd not signed for Sky for whatever reason and had raced against them for BMC or similar. I expect he'd still have won a few grand tours.
This year's Tour will be much more interesting without him though.
I've had my eye on Hugh Carthy for a while now. He was doing really well in the Tour of Britain last year. I like his laid back personality and calmness. I hope he wins a stage.
Interesting to see that many of the really good bike handlers have been mtbers in the past. Sagan, Froome (or ski jumpers - Roglic heehee).
I think the "Crash Froome" thing came about from an interview with one of the Sky riders, possibly GT, who said something along the lines of: "this guy turned up for a team ride, rode with us, crashed, caught us up, crashed, caught us up, etc." And no, until he was main support act to Wiggins I hadn't heard of him or given him any notice.
Recent Tours have suited CF (and Sky/Ineos) being high tempo courses. Of course they pick the team to suit the route but ...
Froome only "raced" mtb once or twice and by his own admission was dreadful. The CX guys like Van Aert and Van Der Poel though, and Bernal who raced MTB, they're useful. Definitely gives better handling skills. Need BC to add CX and MTB racing to the track stuff for the younger guys, would have stood G in good stead 🙂
Cross I can see but I'm not convinced being an ex mtber makes you any better on the road.