It's Bastille Day!
[img] 
[/img]
Fireworks over Paris and fireworks within a bike race as every French rider in it tries to get up the road and negotiate the extra-large crowds of flag waving fans - also a lot of pressure on a home win even if the last time it happened was Warren Barguil in 2017.
Today is the first of three tough mountain days; today in the Jura (as in Jurassic) and then the weekend in the Alps. This one is flat to start, a short uncategorised climb/descent and then the massive unholy ramp of Col de Grand Colombier at the end, only the second time the race has used the summit as a finish. Last time was in 2020 when Tadej Pogacar won here after Jumbo-Visma (riding for Primoz Roglic) had set one hell of a pace on the run in and distanced Egan Bernal before Pogacar rode around them all to win. Sound familiar?
[img] 
[/img]
[img] 
[/img]
There's a chance this could result in two races for the price of one - a stage win battle up front and a GC battle behind not unlike the Puy de Dome stage although if the GC race kicks off hard it could easily sweep up the breakaway. However, with the flat start, it's potentially less conducive to a breakaway forming so it could be an interesting tactical battle. Or it could just be a massive bunfight like yesterday! It's a short stage - only 135km - so it doesn't leave a lot of time to sort out breakaways.
The Grand Colombier is one of those climbs that photographers have dreams about...
[img] 
[/img]
[img] 
[/img]
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) are the two obvious choices - it just remains to be seen if Jumbo try the same tactics as 2020 with TP riding around them to get the win again!
Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe), isn't far off in third place, and he proved his climbing abilities in the Pyrenees. He’ll want to keep ahead of Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers), who is in fourth, 1'18" back.
Tom Pidcock is looking strong but this will be a level above what he's won on before; Simon Yates (Jayco-Alula) is just above him in the standings and the long climb is much more suited to him than anything that's been climbed so far.
Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) bounced back into the top-10 on GC after yesterday's hectic finish and, with his "not dangerous at the moment" six minute deficit to the top two, there's a chance he might able to convert that marginal leeway into what would be a wildly popular stage win for the home crowd.
Pierre Latour (TotalEnergies) did a great climb of the Puy de Dôme, second to Micheal Woods (Israel-Premier Tech)
And there's some geology info on the Jura region and rocks that gave rise to the name Jurassic.
https://www.geo-sports.org/2023/stage-13-frog-legs-and-dinosaur-feet/
I think it'll be a random for the top 5, maybe someone like a Pinot blazing for glory and failing as usual.
The 6-7 will be Pog and Vingo with 1 mins 20 between them... however, i don't know which will be the one ahead/behind.
it'll be bonus seconds sprint @ the top with Pog taking the stage (going by the 2020 edition)
anyway local flavour time
don't think that top spaghetti road image ^^^ is the grand colombier the second one is though :/
@45.862255,5.7909175,3a,75y,175.11h,82.21t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sWIAbSML2m29TuKyvRFU54g!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?authuser=0&entry=ttu">nice view 🙂
yeah the first one is@45.3177294,6.3351164,690m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x478a31d16d44c287:0x6cbbefad46ae6375!8m2!3d45.3177294!4d6.3376913!16s%2Fg%2F11b6dbdvxm?authuser=0&entry=ttu"> Lacets de Montvernier not the Lacets du Grand Colombier
very, very much looking forward to this stage. expecting a hectic ride with the breakaway struggling to form early on, then two race for the price of one!
I've only really become interested in this stuff in the last year or so, so I'm a bit of a noob.
Two things strike me about today and tomorrow. That last climb today looks quite pokey. Today and tomorrow look likely to be the biggest test of the race when combined...?
Fireworks over Paris and fireworks within a bike race...
They both started early this year.
Two things strike me about today and tomorrow. That last climb today looks quite pokey. Today and tomorrow look likely to be the biggest test of the race when combined…?
It's certainly going to be a tough weekend and then next Tuesday/Wednesday we have an uphill time trial followed by a very hard stage to Courchevel. Col de la Loze has been a hill top finish in 2017 with Lopez winning followed by Roglic and Pogacar. This year it's then downhill to the Altiport and a finish up the runway at 18%.
"Tom Pidcock is looking strong but this will be a level above what he’s won on before"
Surely this type and level of TdeF stage is exactly what he won on before?
I'm pretty excited about today, I think there may be a real show down between Pogacar and Vingegaard
Does anybody know why the Tour isn't on ITV4?
It's showing highlights from yesterday instead
Surely this type and level of TdeF stage is exactly what he won on before?
Last year's win was from a breakaway. If he's going win today it'll be against Pog and Vingegaard which is highly unlikely given he hasn't been able to stay with them so far. The only way he's going to win a stage this year is if he blows up one day and falls out of the GC standings. Maybe that'll be today or tomorrow and he can go for the win on Wednesday?
My money's on Pog winning today and gaining yellow. Unless he was trolling, the interview from Vingegaard this morning suggests that's what he thinks too.
ITV do the highlights in the hour before the live stuff.
Does anybody know why the Tour isn’t on ITV4?
Live starts at 2pm as usual.
I will stick to riding down alps. That road climb look hideous
Ben Turner was off the back earlier, apparently he's not feeling well
UAE started chasing the break once it got to 1'15, they're still on the front. Strange tactics, as Robbie is pointing out
Strange tactics
Either Pog wants the win, and/or they smell blood after JV's chaotic day yesterday?
the peloton is strung out, they're not just controlling the break and making sure it stays within a reasonable time, they're chasing = albeit not too nhard as they're not bringing it back
doing that with 100k to go though? Weird. They're going to burn through the domestiques. Then again, we're used to seeing Pog on his own...
They seem concerned about time bonuses and I guess UAE need to attack at some point. But yeah, slightly weird to be going this hard this early.
The peloton is going to shred from the back as soon as they hit that climb, it's too hard a climb to launch off the front.
Peloton have eased off the gas slightly, gap out to a couple of minutes.
Caleb Ewan abandons.
At this rate, the sprint win in Paris is going to be even more of a foregone conclusion than it already was!
Amazingly scenic climb...
Would like to see Kwiato (always the loyal domestique) or even better James Shaw do it..
Would like to see Kwiato (always the loyal domestique) or even better James Shaw do it..
Kwiato has a good chance I reckon. I think the remnants of the break (including James Shaw) will get caught because UAE are drilling it now but the gap at the front is going out!
Bit of a yawn fest tbh was expecting more. Clearly not bringing the break back unless the time stamps are off
Bit of a yawn fest tbh was expecting more
The climb is too hard for anything other than setting a pace and holding it, there's not the opportunity for jumping around with attacks. It's fascinating - looks like UAE are making it hard enough to discourage attacks but not so hard that everyone is on the rivet. Wonder if Pogacar is suffering a bit but just hiding it well enough to carry it off or just waiting til the absolute last second to smash it knowing that he can probably gain 17 seconds in the last 1km and get yellow even without the stage win.
@crazylegs called that well..
Absolute last gasp 💥
Cracking finish!
It was obviously the tactics but as I said pretty boring to watch. Still Pidcock did well.
I know Pog gave it some beans at the end but they must have been disappointed to only get a few seconds no Jersey and no stage win - that can’t have been the original plan surely. Maybe a comms failure
Delighted to see a great win for Kwiato and Tom only just behind Pog and Vin at the end (best of the rest).
Looked like Pog left it until ~400 metres which, in retrospect, was probably too near the line. I wonder if he had started further out, he might have pulled out more time on JV and got an extra 2 second bonus for second place...
Just to add: thanks to @crazy-legs and @klunk for the thread content!
I'm also thinking that was a missed opportunity for Pogacar. The way Vingegaard sat back down and what it looked like Pog had left. But JV had stuck with him so doggedly, maybe he had earned that overestimate on the part of Pogacar...?
Looking back, I think Pogacar will be emboldened by this stage. I expect Pog will be in yellow by the end of today, though. Despite the terrain coming into JV's wheelhouse. Vingegaard needs a big performance to assert his authority if he wants to stay in yellow.
Mmmm so Vingegaard's 'light bike' didn't do a lot, or did it? Was Pogacar on a lighter bike too? Lots of questions.
Absolutely thrilled for James Shaw, what a performance.